Spot the Differential

Spot The Differential – Gameweek 26

Our selection of Theo Walcott paid off handsomely in midweek, so now we go in seek of more differentials who can get close to his explosive 15-point return.

We’ve opted for two more midfielders with promising home fixtures, while a Crystal Palace striker is backed to build on his recent run of form.

Mesut Ozil

Fresh from signing a new three-year contract with the Gunners, and given his outstanding home form, Mesut Ozil gets our seal of approval for today’s late kick-off against Everton.

The Arsenal midfielder has produced three goals and five assists in his last eight matches at the Emirates Stadium, only blanking against Manchester United and Chelsea.

He is creating a chance every 22 minutes at home, compared to every 30 minutes on the road, and faces an appetising match-up against the Toffees.

Sam Allardyce’s side conceded four goals on their last trip to London, when they lost 4-0 to Tottenham Hotspur, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches.

Indeed, over the last four Gameweeks, they have conceded more big chances (13) than any other team.

Ozil, who is owned by just 2.6% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, will be starting alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the attacking midfield positions for the Gunners, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could make his Premier League debut if he recovers from illness.

The new faces should help provide fresh impetus to the Arsenal attack, and Ozil, who costs 9.3 in FPL, is expected to be a central figure in another strong home performance.

Christian Benteke

A favourable home fixture against Newcastle United on the back of a goal and three assists over the last four Gameweeks leads us to believe that Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke can deliver in Gameweek 26.

The Belgian was on the scoresheet in the 1-1 draw with West Ham United in midweek and will carry that confidence into Sunday’s encounter.

There is also the fact that he now has competition for his place following the arrival of Norwegian target man Alexander Sorloth, giving the former Liverpool striker no room for complacency.

Benteke tops the forward ranks for big chances (five) over the last four Gameweeks. And with Andros Townsend and Wilfried Zaha manning the supply line, he should continue to get the opportunities to build on Tuesday night’s goal.

Certainly Newcastle don’t appear to have the defensive resolve to deal with the Palace threat. They arrive at Selhurst Park with just one clean sheet from their last 10 away matches and only three teams have conceded more big chances than the Magpies (nine) over the last four Gameweeks.

Rafa Benitez’s men also sit fourth for the most headed attempts (10) conceded from those four fixtures, which is certainly an area that Benteke can look to exploit.

Sat in just 2.4% of FPL squads and available at 7.6, the Eagles striker looks the ideal gamble for Fantasy managers seeking a one-week punt.

Junior Stanislas

It’s easy to see why Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas has made the cut this week.

The Cherries midfielder registered a goal and an assist in Wednesday night’s outstanding 3-0 victory over Chelsea and has a plum home fixture against Stoke City this afternoon.

No team has conceded more goals away from home than the Potters (30), although they are yet to concede in two matches under new boss Paul Lambert.

But Stanislas’ track record against Stoke further enhances his appeal.

The midfielder totalled a season-high 13 points when the two sides last met in Gameweek 9, registering a goal, assist and maximum bonus.

He also produced a goal and an assist across the two matches against the Potters during the 2016/17 season.

Injuries have restricted Stanislas to just 10 starts this season, but he boasts an impressive goal involvement rate of 50% when in the side.

Matches against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle over the next three Gameweeks mean he also has the platform to maintain form beyond today’s clash.

Team-mate Callum Wilson has been attracting all the investment ahead of the Gameweek 26 deadline, while Stanislas resides in just 0.3% of FPL squads.

Priced at 5.9 in FPL, Stanislas can provide a worthy differential and perhaps a natural replacement for Shaqiri in our squads once Stoke’s fixture stiffen up.

1,682 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Kalou
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Need to make up ground in my ml,nobody owns kdb should I captain him?
    A.aye
    B.naw

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      possibly - I have Kun and KDB but going with Kun(C)

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yes. Bear in mind that these are the types of decisions that could set you back further.

  2. VHS LaCazette Tape
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    How do one choose between KDB and Sterling? KDB has felt more dangerous lately... how do you reason?

    1. Kane-harry Island
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling seem to always be hungry to get on the scoresheet. May at least get assist while trying to score. KDB is a playmaker and may not be primarily looking to score.

    2. Deus
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling is cheaper, plays closer to enemy’s box, gains more points

    3. VHS LaCazette Tape
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Went with Sterling. Thanks! But with my luck you'll see tripple assist and a goal from KDB in a few hours.

  3. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Captain Sensible article is comparing xG instead of xG Non Penalty for players like Salah and Aguero which is a rookie mistake.

    1. AK ⭐
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      How? They do have penalties in their locker and last I checked, penalty goals gave same points than a goal from open play?

      1. Cok3y5murf
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        That's not the point. xG gives you an idea of how well they performed in the game to help you predict future returns. Penalties don't indicate that a player performed well. You can't predict future returns based on the fact that they were awarded a penalty and the player scored it.

        1. AK ⭐
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          It's upto the user to see through it. I'd want to see xG with penalties factored in too. There's a bit of luck with penalties for sure, but teams that have more PATs have a higher chance of winning penalties.

          Calling it a rookie mistake is pretty harsh

          1. Cok3y5murf
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 2 months ago

            PATs?

            Then that should be factored in the team analysis, not player. Even if you believe that a certain team has a higher chance of winning penalties, you can't predict which game they'll be awarded a penalty in. It's more random. The xG helps guide you if a player is getting involved in big chances to indicate some sort of form, and penalties have nothing to do with player form.

            1. AK ⭐
              • 11 Years
              6 years, 2 months ago

              Disagree. When you think about a player that has scored 6 goals in last 5 and 4 of them were penalties, you wouldn't exactly say he isn't in form.

              Form is all about wearing your scoring boots. You might be scoring from 2 yards out or 20, goals give you form.

              xG isn't a direct factor to predict future returns, it's a factor where they tell you how many Expected Goals a player has over the season from the shots he has taken and the positions of those, which includes penalties.

              1. Cok3y5murf
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 2 months ago

                Which is why I said that xG Non Penalty is more useful.

                I disagree that penalties indicate form. They have a much higher probability of going in, whereas non-penalty chances more often require the player to perform well in so many different ways. We can agree to disagree.

        2. Forever mirin
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          Its fairly predictable that a top 6 side will get 5-7 pens per season (just google penalty stats for PL), so it still helps you to predict future returns. Even if its not directly related to the player's performance.

          1. Cok3y5murf
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 2 months ago

            The Captain Sensible article is for the upcoming gameweek, not the entire season.

            You cannot predict which games the top 6 sides will get awarded penalties in. You cannot predict that Salah or Aguero will take penalties in this particular gameweek. So it should only take into account the player's recent performances, which have nothing to do with penalties.

  4. Dybala10
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Order the subs

    A) Richarlison (CHE h)
    B) Vertonghen (LIV a)
    C) Mee (MCI h)

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      ABC.

    2. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      ABC

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Not a bad bench

  5. The Desi Messi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    What do you think of the below moves?

    Christensen + DCL -> Mawson + Wilson (2FT)

    Foster (Elliott)
    Jones Christensen* Mee Chilwell (Mariappa)
    Salah Sterling Son Hazard (RLC*)
    Kane Vardy (DCL)

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I like.

    2. Sgt. Schultz
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A decent team you got there. Good luck

  6. Halftime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Start Francis or Tomkins?

  7. I Have No Idea What I'…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Mustafi > Azpilicueta for a -4? (Already have Alonso)

    1. BigAsGiroud_
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      hell no

    2. Frank Koscielny
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      No

  8. QuintonFortune25
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Captain:
    Kane
    Sterling
    Salah
    Wilson

    1. Evasivo
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Salah for me, Sterling VC.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Decider machine said Salah (didn't offer Sterling as a choice mind)

    3. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I’m going with Sir Harold

  9. Evasivo
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Field Ogbonna/Kenny or -4 for Christensen replacement?

    Ryan
    Christensen* Dunk Alonso
    Mahrez Sterling(vc) Salah(C) Son
    Firmino Kane

    Adrian Ogbonna Kenny RLC £1.9itb

    1. Evasivo
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      *Mahrez now Walcott

    2. QuintonFortune25
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Chris to Jones, you'll make the -4pts in this week alone

      1. Evasivo
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        PJones? Suppose can't score an of every week

        1. Evasivo
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          *an OG

        2. QuintonFortune25
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          Yeah nailed and was just a bad day at the office

  10. TheTeeGees
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Help please, struggling with injuries. Probably need to take a -4:

    Pickford Elliot
    Otamendi, Jones, Alonso, Holgate, Mee
    DSilva, Lingard, Sako, TCarrol, Loftus-Cheek
    Aguero, Firmino, Kane

    1 FT
    2.3 itb

    Thinking maybe Silva to De Bruyne & Sako to Ibe?

    2nd place in mini-league, main rival has Salah & Sterling.

    Thanks!

    1. Paulinho14
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      good transfers

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Silva to Salah.

      Taroll to Ibe.

    3. sentagoda
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Worst midfield ever.

      1. TheTeeGees
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks for the input

  11. King Carlos
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Will Huddersfield score today vs Man U? No chance, right?

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      You'd never know with Phil Jones playing.

    2. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Highly unlikely

    3. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Doubt it

  12. Sarri-ball
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Over next month a or b

    Mkhi/walcott/Aguero
    Or
    Chupo/kdb/augbameyang

    1. Reuser
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A for now.

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      How would we know the answer to this before seeing how Mkhi and auba fit in with arsenal??

  13. Reuser
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Are we expecting Niasse to be back on the Everton bench?

    Or did he do enough to nail another starting place?

  14. jackluhg
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Have I missed the boat on Alonso?

    Ogbonna>Alonso for free.. no other Chelsea cover

    1. Sarri-ball
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I think missed biat Alonso will get rest round Barca fixtures I reckon

    2. King Carlos
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Do it

  15. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Who is the best defender to invest in?

    A...daniels

    B..dawson

    Leading to Dawson. Daniels figures this season at underwhelming

    Thanks

    1. XabiAlonso
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I went Dawson myself

    2. Deus
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Daniels now maybe Dawson later or even both

  16. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Start Francis or Dunk?

    Have Ryan in Goal

    1. Halftime
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Bournemouth def was good vs Chelsea, I'd go Francis

  17. Schlupppp
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Need to replace christenson
    I have 5.5m, want someone long term...

    1. Paulinho14
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      stones, van dijk, Maguire, Mawson ? it would be helpful to see your team tho

  18. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    😳

  19. KneejerkJoe
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Captain?
    A) Aguero
    B) Hazard
    C) Ozil

    1. FPL Ultras
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      B

    2. QuintonFortune25
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Haz

  20. denial
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Bought Christensen gw 20.

    4 points and .2 loss

    Tidy

  21. FPL Ultras
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    I captained HAZARD as the differential for this GW due to his low ownership % and his ability to do well in away matches. However, my team comprises of players who can also do very well, therefore I don't feel so sure. Here are the other choices in my team... what do you think?

    A) Aguero
    B) Firmino
    C) Pogba
    D) Sterling
    E) Vardy

    Thanks guys!

    1. QuintonFortune25
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Stick with Hazard

    2. Evasivo
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Aguero for me, could be a haul

  22. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Morning guys, planning have 2FTs in gw28 so need save an FT either this gw next gw.

    A: save FT this gw and do pope > foster next gw as Heaton should be close to comeback

    B: son > pogba this gw and save FT next week and keep pope till I play my WC in gw33. Other keeper is Adrian

    Adrian pope
    Alonso jones Duffy Cedric Gomez
    Salah Sterling hazard son Ibe
    Kun Firmino Quaner

  23. FootballFanatic365
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    start
    1 son
    or
    2 lingz

    ??

    1. Evasivo
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Son IMO

    2. Ibralicious
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Lingz by far

    3. drughi
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      if you dont start lingard against huddersfield at home you might just wanna get rid imo

    4. Fernando Torres
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      HMS

  24. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Personally think Liverpool should drop Mane for Ox tomorrow and Lovren for VVD. The reason I think this is Spurs don't like teams who hussle them (see for example, Swansea, Southampton and Man City). Ox, Milner, Can, Henderson gives Liverpool a bit more hussle IMO which Eriksen, Alli (gets petulant) and Son don't like.

    1. Infamy, Infamy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      You’ve forgotten last season’s match at Anfield....

  25. yer old da
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Best 4.3 defender - Chilwell or Francis?

    First to five wins.

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Francis just because I think he's a little more nailed than Chil

  26. PocketZola
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Last min panic

    Who to captain?

    Kane
    Salah
    Sterling
    Walcott
    Alonso
    Ddg

    1. Vlad Tepes
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Kane is the safe option

    2. QuintonFortune25
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Think I'm going Kane

    3. Patch
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Kun

      1. PocketZola
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Im on kane c and sterling vc, stick?

        1. Pocky
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          Have 5 of the 6 listed...going Martial lol

    4. Deus
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Salah from the list

  27. Patch
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Pls tell me there was another idiot like me out there who switched Arnie for Walcott and received no rise nor drop last night

    #Absolute-Wally

  28. fijuhmon
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Best cheap (around 4.5m) replacement for Christensen? Few thoughts:

    a) Chillwell
    b) Francis
    c) Lascelles
    d) Kelly

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A or b

    2. yer old da
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Between A and B for me too, and will decide based on best home/away rotation with my other cheap defender. So probably Francis as I have Dunk for Brighton.

      1. fijuhmon
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Excellent point there! I have Duffy, so I guess I'll go with Francis too.

  29. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Get
    A Wilson or
    B Ayew

    1. Deus
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Wilson

  30. FootballFanatic365
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    start
    1 shaq
    or
    2 chilwell

    1. Concrete
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      1