Opinion

The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 27

Inactivity always leaves me feeling uneasy. No matter how favourable the assessment of my squad at the time, the decision to sit on my hands and “let things be” never comes easy.

It’s even more difficult ahead of today’s deadline. There are obvious blemishes to address, but the landscape created by the FA fifth round and Gameweek 31 promotes a stoic patient approach.

I’ve looked long and hard, but weighing up the percentages, I still can’t convince myself to use a transfer.

Nicolas Otamendi probably has a 50% chance of starting, Ogbonna has roughly 30% (being kind) of providing some points as his replacement from the bench. My proposed transfer – Virgil van Dijk in for the City defender – could beat them both, though he has a 98% chance of making a calamitous error with the boos of the St Mary’s faithful ringing in his ears.

It’s the value of the potential short-term gain, versus the value of more information on form, injuries and, crucially, Gameweek 31. As the latest subscriber to the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, it just doesn’t seem worth it.

The accepted thinking is to attempt to navigate through the impact of the FA Cup fifth round, but use the results and information prior to Gameweek 28 to guide transfers. Having two free trades at this point looks advisable and possibly a key advantage.

The theory is that there is enough opportunity in this tactic to set up an “acceptable” line-up for what remains of Gameweek 31.

As soon as the new chip arrived in our armoury, it was presumed that we’d deploy it for the diminished FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend.

But the ability to use the Wildcard – most likely in Gameweek 32 – to load up early on the teams confirmed to have double Gameweeks to come, could prove powerful.

In addition, the benefits of fielding a full XI in Gameweek 31 may yet be minimal, certainly compared with the impact of having to navigate out of Gameweek 35 – when the semi-final blanks will occur – with assets for double Gameweek 37 still intact.

For all the planning we devise at this point, there are still so many unknowns that could rip up our theories.

But one thing is certain; we need all this planning to pay off.

The strategies above, while seemingly sound, are far from straightforward to explain or execute. Because of that, we will try to convince ourselves that, as studied and meticulous Fantasy managers, this is a time when our efforts pay off.

We look forward to this part of the season, presuming that we can make up ground or stretch our lead over the Gameweeks that remain.

But perhaps this remains a dangerous assumption.

If I do stick with the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, I’ll be fascinated to look back and assess just how much of an advantage was gained.

If ever we needed a stark reminder that our tactics can sometimes be counter-productive, then Fusen’s latest analysis tool provides it.

Revealing our points tallies had we taken our hands off the wheel and made no transfers, it shows that I am just 11 points better off having made nine changes since Gameweek 20.

On that basis, I could have spared you a lot of Saturday morning wittering and myself hours of anguish and anxiety.

Maybe I should start being more relaxed about doing nothing.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,342 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jazzy30
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    pope or pickford guys?

    1. Jayv807
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Pope

    2. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Pope

      1. jazzy30
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        thanks guys!!

  2. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Captaining Wilson!

    1. HonestBlatter
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Good shout

    2. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Mental, good luck

    3. mosmof
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I tried that ploy last week. Never again.

  3. Jayv807
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Play Maguire or ogbonna?

  4. Henning
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Right Bench order?
    Ayew Duffy Mee

    1. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Mee before Duffy imo

    2. HonestBlatter
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Play Mee....he is going to score this GW

      1. Dirty Harry
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Almost had three last week, luck y he didn't he was on my bench eeek

    3. Henning
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      So should i play Mee ahead of Fernandez

  5. Garlana
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Repost

    If you're getting in a cheap defender under 4.9m that will be bench cover most weeks and that won't be affected by blanks, who would you get?

    1. Crash
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Bauer

      1. Garlana
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        What's all the love for this guy for?

        1. IRBOX ⚽
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Poor man’s Alonso. It’s the fixtures.. people see the green and go crazy, however, should realise that Stoke is a green fixture also for their opposition!

          1. Garlana
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 1 month ago

            That's what I thought, anyone else worth considering?

        2. Chris_H
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          24 flashbacks

  6. Ribus
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Play:
    A) martina (CRY)
    B) JWP (LIV)

  7. N00B
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Its worth to sell good players ( Kane, Sterling, Alonso, Jones etc) for gameweek 31 and then wc in gw32 and bring them back but for a higher amount of money ?

    1. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I wouldn't. Depends if you can afford to bring them back and whether your one week replacement is worth it. Get rid of those you don't necessarily want after

  8. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Shit GW incoming......

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I smell another 30 pointer for me

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        #humblebrag

    2. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      What's this tweet jaf

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Oh the usual 😀

        1. LǝgleSs e|even
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Tell me!

  9. Maarrrr17
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Otamendi > Fernandez + Lingard > Walcott for free??

  10. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    I really have a good feeling about Auba but selling Hazard before WBA just doesn't seem right. Entire season was marked by poor decision making so I'm totally lost right now ...

  11. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Any tweets about?

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Jafooli has got a few

      1. Rainer
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Is it true?

    2. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Just typing one up now

      1. Rainer
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Bit weird keeping her own poo...

      2. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        😆

  12. Dirty Harry
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Worth a save?

    Adrian
    Azpi Otamendi Mee
    Salah Son Sterling Lingard Walcott
    Kane Firmino

    Ayew Ogbonna Duffy?

  13. More Cowbell
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Rapid fire pole needed:

    A) Naughton & Deulofeu
    B) Alex-Arnold & Walcott

    Thanks

  14. Mr_Barbs
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Stones or Daniels?

  15. jazzy30
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    i have Martial and Lingard with 0.1 itb and no free transfers left ..should i kick one out..if yes who and for whom?

    1. FlockofSeagulls
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Keep and play both this gw.

  16. Ahtikullervo
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Fab

    Bauer RoboCop Lawton Taylor

    KDB San(c)hez Salah MilliVanilli

    Kun Kane

    Coleman Ulloa Kenedy Hegazi

    GTG?

  17. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Kun or Salah for C ?

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      kun

  18. Ser Bronn of The Blackwater
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Lingard or Mhki?????

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      lingard

    2. Peggi
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Mhki

    3. Ser Bronn of The Blackwater
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I went with walcott guys

  19. andrinho
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Is Naughton & Walcott for Lingard & (injured) Monreal worth a 4-point hit?

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Nope

  20. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A)Play Lindgard
    B)Lindgard to Deulofeu for free

  21. George James
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Play niasse or Allen

    Cap Kun or Salah....

  22. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Kane or Salah?

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      S

      1. Jeremy Corbyn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        K

  23. Bonus magnet
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    play Duffy or Maguire

    1. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Duffy

  24. Prison Mike
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Vertonghen or Christiensen to put first on my bench?

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      vert

  25. TSN
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    My current def
    jones-ota-alonso-daniels (ogbonna)
    Correct order? Any player should be transfered? (Will be -4)

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      yes

  26. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Play Mee (swa) or Niasse (CRY)?

    Help!!

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      niasse

  27. jazzy30
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    i have Martial and Lingard with 0.1 itb and no free transfers left ..should i kick one out..if yes who and for whom?!!!

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      no

  28. Totti
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    guys play:

    A) ogbonna
    B) francis

    1) lingard
    2) milivojevic

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B1

  29. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    (C)

    Kane or go with my gut instinct and stick it on Walcott?

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Kane

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Go with gut otherwise you will have bigger regrets if he gets big score

  30. Oscar Slater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Aguero captaincy warning. I've had a quick look back at when he's been scoring his goals lately and the vast majority of them have been in the last third of the game - by which time he'll be warming his arse on the bench this evening.

    Kane (c) it is then.