Spot the Differential

Spot The Differential – Gameweek 28

Everton’s Oumar Niasse and Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold both came through for us in Gameweek 27, and we’re again prioritising players with a guaranteed Gameweek 31 fixture in our latest set of differentials.

So, with appealing home match-ups later today, we’re backing attackers from Liverpool and Watford, while an in-form Brighton midfielder looks an enticing prospect ahead of a home encounter against Swansea City.

Sadio Mane

While Fantasy managers deliberate over which Liverpool asset to invest in alongside Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino, it’s Sadio Mane who looks the most explosive option.

The Reds benefit from a very enticing short-term schedule (WHU NEW mun WAT), including that guaranteed fixture against Watford in Gameweek 31 when only eight teams are certain to be in action.

The Senegal international fired a hat-trick in the 5-0 win over Porto in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie but has lived in the shadow of Salah and Firmino this season, explaining why he sits in just 7.9% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads.

His underlying statistics over the last four Gameweeks suggest the Champions League hat-trick could be a sign of what’s to come in the forthcoming league matches.

The former Southampton midfielder has produced more shots inside the penalty area than Firmino (nine to five), and has created more chances (eight) than any team-mate.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have created more big chances (14) than any other side over the last four Gameweeks, and only Manchester City (79) have scored more goals than the Reds (61) this season.

While Mane does set us back 9.3 in FPL, this looks to be a window when investment in three Reds attackers could be justified.

Jose Izquierdo

Goals in each of the last two Gameweeks and a promising home meeting with Swansea City ensures that Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Jose Izquierdo make the cut.

The Seagulls’ winger has been growing in confidence of late, perhaps due to the fact he’s played from start to finish in each of the last three league matches, having only managed the full 90 minutes twice over the opening 24 Gameweeks.

His underlying statistics over those three most recent matches illustrate the Colombian’s impact.

Only Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (six) has produced more shots on target among FPL midfielders than Izquierdo (four), while he also ranks among the top five midfielders for shots (eight) and efforts inside the box (six).

This afternoon’s match-up with Swansea looks favourable.

The Welsh outfit have conceded in each of their three away matches under Carlos Carvalhal, while no team has given up more chances down the right flank (115).

That bodes well for Izquierdo, whose pace and directness down Brighton’s left could cause plenty of problems for the visiting defence.

Izquierdo’s inconsistent form over the first half of the season mean he is owned by just 0.2% of FPL managers.

But priced at 5.9, he looks a fantastic budget option given his current output.

Troy Deeney

The home form of Watford’s Troy Deeney sees the striker complete our trio.

The Hornets skipper has registered attacking returns in each of his last two outings at Vicarage Road, while all three of his goals this season have come on home turf.

Javi Gracia’s side host Everton in today’s late kick-off.

The Toffees have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven matches and have shipped 11 goals in their last three road trips.

Deeney, meanwhile, has offered much more of a goal threat of late.

Since being recalled to the starting XI in Gameweek 24, he has averaged a shot every 44.9 minutes, up from every 75.1 minutes previously.

Another key aspect to Deeney’s appeal is the fact the Hornets are one of only eight clubs certain to play in Gameweek 31, when they travel to face Liverpool.

The 6.3-priced forward also has a plum home fixture against West Bromwich Albion next weekend.

So for any Fantasy managers seeking a major differential in attack, the 0.4%-owned Deeney fits the profile.

1,446 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ruud van Kane
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Does the Arsenal VS City game on 1 March count towards the February monthly scores?
    For the private league monthly cash prizes I'm referring to..

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      It's part of a GW that started in Feb so I imagine it will

  2. Scotty B
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Elliot
    TAA Duffy Alonso
    Ibe Walcott Shaqiri Sterling Salah
    Kane Firmino

    Adrian Quaner Otamendi Schindler

    2.5m ITB.

    Worth gettingrid of Sterling for a -4?

  3. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Guys u have 8 players for gw31

    I also have WC, FH and my other two chips.

    What should I be doing. I'm totally confused this yr

    1. camarozz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Ment to say I have 8 gw31 players.

    2. Jebiga
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      wc gw33, bb gw 34 ! and all other things are up to you 😉

  4. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Who will score more points??

    A. Mahrez vs Stoke
    B. Sterling vs Arsenal

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

  5. Hargo
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Quaner or Kenny first sub?

  6. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Who will you start??

    A. K Long
    B. Duffy

  7. Jebiga
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Bournmouth have fixture in gw 31 ? How nailed is Francis ?

    1. Madderegern
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Pretty....pretty nailed

    2. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      He’s the captain

  8. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Last check 2nd go.

    A. Play Sterling and 1st bench Shaqiri.
    B. Play Shaq instead.
    C. Sell to Eriksen for a rash hit.

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. Top Dog
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      A

  9. jia you
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    LIV 0-0 WHU would be glorious!
    C'mon Moyes you can do it!!

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Never happening

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        stranger things happen in football on a weekly basis!

  10. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Plan was to get Wilson but with Defoe now back fit I think it's best to avoid for now ?

    Looking back to when both were fit, Defoe started and Wilson was benched, seems like Defoe is first choice for Howe.

    Thoughts on this ?

  11. Benditlike
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Foster
    Vvd, Ota, Mee
    Salah (c), Deulofeu, Shaqiri, Sterling
    Kane, Aguero, Wilson

    Bench: Jones, Ogbonna, RLC
    FT: 0 (Did Alonso > Vvd)
    ITB: 1,6

    1. Jones > Davies
    2. Jones > Naughton
    3. Hold
    4. Other?

  12. asif316uk
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling + Shaq > Eriksen + Mahrez

    Shall I pull the trigger for free?

  13. Top Dog
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    How many people are going with a Liverpool front 3 (Firmino, Mane & Salah)?

    I always thought I would have VVD, but basically comes down do who I think will score more out of him and Mane in the next 4.

    VVD - 3 CS out of 4 = 20 points
    Mane - 3 CS + 1 goal + 1 assist = 20 points

    I think I have been very conservative on mane's points and also think that he has the potential to get a huge score in one of the next three where as VVD is far more unlikely to get any additional points

    The reason I was going with VVD was for team balance, but in reality there should be no funding issues for those having 7 + DGWK players owing to the players available to us.

    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Eggs and basket come to mind.

    2. Top Dog
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      You may be right Dingo. But had already made up my mind to definitely have Salah and Firmino, so it simply comes down to whether I think Mane will score more than VVD.

    3. Konig Luther
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      you need to count the points of that guy that will make the combo with them too

      1. Top Dog
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        I'm not sure I will have a full 11. Has just changed formation from 4-3-2 to 3-4-2.

        Lots permutations with within 4 gwks, as the likely alternative for each would Ibe and Daniels, but both would be benched for gwk 30 and possibly 29 as well.

        It just seems to make sense to me that you get most points for attacking contributions, Liverpool are 2nd top scorers in the league and best available team in gwk 31. If we could afford it surely we would all go with 2 or 3 midfielders and attackers from Man City, Spurs and Liverpool through the season as these are arguably best attacking teams? The reason we can't is budget, which doesn't come in to play for gwk 31

    4. XabiAlonso
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      You need to compare points of mane and the defender vs vvd and the mid you would have instead.

      1. Top Dog
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        See above

  14. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Good to go? Bench ok?

    Depoitre brace coming in for Sterling if he is out.

    Hennessey
    Alonso / VVD / Kenny
    Salah (C) / Eriksen / Sterling / Walcott / Mahrez
    Kane (vc) / Wilson

    Speroni / Depoitre / Jones / Ogbonna

    On a -4 / £0.1itb

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yup. Gtg

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      ...ah been a good six hours since I've seen Dingo's team 😉

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        You are worse than Jinswick.

      2. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        You must not have much better to do?

        1. Fantasy Gold
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          lol the irony

          1. jia you
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 2 months ago

            🙂

        2. jia you
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 2 months ago

          for the safety of the site, I'm keeping an eye on all wild dawgs! 😉

          1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 2 months ago

            I will find you, and I will bite you.

            1. jia you
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 2 months ago

              ah, I've heard that your bark is worse than your bite!
              If I owned Kane he would def be my captain v Palace this week, you not tempted?

              1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 2 months ago

                Very tempting

    3. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Hope sterling doesn't do a cameo

  15. Kalou
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Kdb to:
    A.Mane
    B.Mahrez

  16. Swagat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Repost
    Good to go?

    Adrian
    Alonso Francis Naughton Kenny
    Salah(c) Hazard Sterling
    Kane(vc) Firmino Wilson

    Elliot Ramsey Albrighton Ogbonna

    Correct Bench Order?

  17. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Salah(c) has to be the pick. Protectionist, but there will be other GWs when you can make ground with your (c).

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Agreed, although firmino is tempting.

  18. NoName
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    G2G?

    Pope
    VVD Otamendi Maguire
    Salah Sanchez Shaqiri Mahrez
    Kane Firmino Wilson

    (No bench) 1.3 ITB

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      No bench is the obvious concern!

      1. NoName
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah, it's shambles. Not sure it's worth a hit so close to wc time.

  19. Jebiga
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    I founded solution 🙂 Im doing Alonso and Jones to Otamendi and Verthongen 😉

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Strange timing to get otamendi in

    2. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Not Ota and go davies

  20. Scotty B
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Elliot
    TAA Duffy Alonso
    Ibe Walcott Shaqiri Sterling Salah
    Kane Firmino

    Adrian Quaner Otamendi Schindler

    2.5m ITB

    Sterling > Mahrez or Siggy or Elliot > Pickford or Foster worth a -4 hit?

  21. asif316uk
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling + Shaqiri > Eriksen + Mahrez.
    2 FT yay or nay?

  22. LǝgleSs e|even
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling injury woes?
    Swap for Mahrez?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      For free may be. Not for hot. Thu still a long time to recover.

  23. sunzip14
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Son>Mahrez for the excitement of the first match today gives more motive for the transfer. Do it?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Don't bother. Maguire is getting all the goals.

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        ...and Mahrez the assits, keeps us all happy watching his hattie!

      2. sunzip14
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Mahrez's assists will do okay to me!

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Yup and give him the armband, looking forward to watching it as also have big 'arry!

      1. sunzip14
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers!

  24. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Any hits required here or GTG:

    Adrian
    VVD, Dunk, Mawson
    Mahrez, Hazard, Shaqiri, Salah (c), Milijovic
    Kane (V), Aguero

    Quaner, Jones*, Dummet, Quaner

    0 FT 1.1 itb

    Could do:

    1. Jones > defender up to 6.5 (bench Mawson) -4
    2. Quaner > Niasse (bench Milo) -4
    3. Jones + Quaner > Wilson/Niasse + Mee/Vertonghen

    1. AYLD28
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      3 would be -8

  25. lordkippe
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Aguero > Vardy worth - 4 ?

    1. Zilla
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      no

  26. Jebiga
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    who would you play:

    1. daniels

    2. choupo - motain

    3. alonso

    ?

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      All three but if I had to choose drop choupo

  27. PMz
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Is Lingard to Deulofeu the right move?

    Adrian (Elliot)

    Otamendi Mee Daniels

    Salah Sterling Gross Lingard Walcott

    Kane Aguero

    Subs: Quaner, Ogbonna Hunemeister

  28. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Repost sorry. Could really use some advice here. Struggling with my injured bench fodder

    2 FT

    DDG

    Ota Mee Daniels (Jones, Yoshi)

    Sterling Lingard Shaq Salah (RLC)

    Kane Wilson Aguero

    Thinking of doing Aguero to Firmino and Lingard to Walcott for free. But obviously have injury concerns over 2 players and 2 are definitely not going to play. Should I put those fires out first and leave the starting XI as is? Thanks

  29. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Morning guys, am I GTG? Main issue is who to start in mid:

    A - Shaq
    B - Richarlison

    DDG
    Ota - VVD - Jones
    Salah (c) - Mahrez - Walcott - Shaq/Rich
    Kane - Firm - Wilson

    Speroni - Shaq/Rich - Ogbonna - Kenny

  30. EMERGING STAR
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Would you get Aubameyang in for Wilson? Need to prepare for that move in next week. But how?

    1.Alonso - > Lascelles/Naughten/Daniels
    2.Son - > Doucoure /5.6
    3.Get another Arsenal attacker instead (Ramsey?)
    4. Anything else?