Metrics

Metrics – The Bench Boost and Free Hit

In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

3,973 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    This is the make or break gw for non-free hitters. Im looking at a -16 hit... Biggest Ive ever taken. Will be really hard to keep pace with the average.

    1. Buck The Trent
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      GL

    2. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Im just hoping players like Gudmunson that are being ignored on people's FH's continue to produce

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Same just with Barnes and Lowton

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      I took no hits in GW31, went with just 7 players, and got 87 points. This week is about damage control for you. Don't take too many hits, they won't work.

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        is that 28 points without Salah though?

        1. Bob McMayday
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          29*

        2. Cok3y5murf
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          Yes, but what are you getting at? I remember most scores being in the 85-95 range that week.

          1. Bob McMayday
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 11 months ago

            I agree with your point and think your advice is sound. just think saying "I scored 87 with only 7 players" doesn't give the full picture.

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      What are ur transfers?

  2. Kno
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Any risky picks in my team playtimewise or is it pretty much template? Got nothing in the bank and no playing subs so very much all in.

    Butland

    bellerin baines vvd

    sterling kdb mane salah zaha

    lacazette jesus

    1. chaser123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      No playing subs is risky. Who are you going to captain?

    2. Frank Koscielny
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      I’m reeeally struggling with affording that.. Looks great though

    3. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      gtg

  3. Manani
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Kompany or Otamendi?

    1. Danstoke82
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Kompany

  4. Super Silva Haze
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Free Hit All Set ?

    Butland
    Baines Bellerin Vvd
    Salah Sterling Zaha Kdb Shaqiri
    Lacazette Jesus

    3.9 Lowton Dcl 3.9

    1. Chrisitis
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Same starting eleven. Worried about Mane?

  5. Buck The Trent
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Klavan or Moreno ?

    1. Manani
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Moreno

  6. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Sturridge owners getting rid or just benching with the parent club rule in play?

    1. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Hahahahahaha

  7. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    dunno why, but despite being able to afford KDB i just cant put him in... 😕

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      He was the first name on my FH team.

    2. Yogi_mike
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Right? He's been meh

      1. BRFC1883
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        3rd highest scoring mid in the game is very meh

    3. justlikehoney
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      The most expensive option isn't always the best one, think the temptation with the free hit is to use up all the funds you have but that might not necessarily be the best option.

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Depends on what u do with the extra funds u’d save by going sterling or sane..

  8. Yogi_mike
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    G2G?
    Butland
    Baines Milner Kompany
    Salah Dilva Zaha Mane Shaquiri
    Jesus Laca

    3.9 PVA Barnes Lowton
    Who to cap

  9. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Foster
    TAA Lowton Baines
    Walcott Shaqiri Sterling
    Barnes Jesus Aubamayang

    Elliot Eriksen Alonso Lingard Ake

    Which option looks the most sensible?

    A Eriksen > KDB
    B Alonso > Walker
    C Alonso > Otamendi
    D Ake > Kompany

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Why on earth would U want Walcott? Ship him out and I’d chose B

  10. justlikehoney
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Karnezis
    Tarkowski, VVD, Dummett
    Zaha, Sterling (C), Gündoğan, Gudmundsson, Kenedy
    Jesus, Aubameyang

    GTG? 😀

    1. Manani
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      auba may not start

      1. justlikehoney
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Not to worry Kane is my first sub!

        1. Weasel Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          Kane?

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Downgrade Aubame to Perez and upgrade gundogan to sterling

  11. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Pretty sure Welbeck is more nailed than Auba AND Laca because while Laca played 90 minutes last week, Welbeck was benched so he needs to prepare for the EL tie more than Laca, by Wenger's thinking.

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      If Welbeck cost 10m he would be in every team.

      1. Cok3y5murf
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        😀

      2. VDiesel26
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Or be called Welbeckinho or Wélé

        1. panda07
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          Or Wellbeckenbauer

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Yeh except Lacazette’s 70minutes can easily outscore Welbeck’s 90

      1. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Also it actually depends on what u do with the funds u’d save by going Welbeck. The upgrade that the extra funds enable are the key factor in ur decision..

      2. Cok3y5murf
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Welbeck has been in much better form than Laca recently. Laca still looks a bit low on confidence in the final third.

        1. Like an Egyptian Magician
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          U can’t be serious bro. What form? He delivered points in 3 games all season and his last delivery in gw33 came 28 games after his previous delivery in gw5. Also doesn’t look to be very nailed at all..

  12. Lignja
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    1. Ozil, Lowton, Henesy
    2. Zaha, Pva, Pope

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      2

  13. VDiesel26
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    FT team with £2.7 ITB!

    Pickford
    Kompany Mustafi? VVD
    Zaha Arnautovic? Sterling Salah Ozil?
    Auba? Jesus

    3.9 Perez 3.9 3.9

    1) Auba > Lacazette (3.2m ITB if i do this...)
    2) Arnautovic / Ozil > Which midfielders?
    3) Mustafi > Baines / Coleman?

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      I’d do 1 & 3. Also I’d rather have mane over Ozil. Lastly I’d start Perez ahead of Arnie

  14. Football Heaven
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Butland or Pickford
    Auba or laca
    Bellerin or PVA

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Butland Laca Bellerin

  15. chaser123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Please could someone remind me of the captain choices suggested in the scoutcast?

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Knowing that daft bunch it was probably Salah all the way.

      1. chaser123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Haha! You think Salah is a daft choice?

    2. justlikehoney
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah Salah was favoured, but Jesus, Aubameyang and Sterling were all mentioned as potential captain options.

  16. Danstoke82
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Hey all, appreciate your thoughts?

    Current team (no FH available)

    Adrian*
    VVD Lowton Kompany Bavies*
    Salah Milivojevic Zaha Sterling
    Barnes Firmino

    Subs; DDG Kane Lingard Daniels

    At -8.

    Is a -12 too much as Thinking of swapping Adrian to Dubravka or Fabianski ready for BB DGW37. Plus will have a playing keeper for this GW.

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Yes it’s too much. Don’t do it

      1. Danstoke82
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers for the feedback!

  17. Sharpe Shuffle
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Are we thinking Pep will rotate heavily now the title is sewn up? Any players particularly susceptible to being left out now?

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      1. I think pep will want to celebrate the title with his best 11 (maybe minus 1 player)

      2. He’ll want to make up a bit for the ManUtd game and offer the fans a chance to exhude especially that the title was won whence some other team lost on TV. This is the first chance to actually materialize ‘winning’ the title after a football game.

      3. He’ll want to reward his best 11 with a chance to explode at home while being relieved from the stress of performing as the title has already been won on paper.

      4. He doesnt have anything else to play for as they’re out of all other competitions.

      5. Pep will want to break records and that is best achievable by fielding his best 11.

      6. They’ll still have 4 games after this gw so pep will still have time to rotate a bit in preparation for next season while sending his big guns to the beach for the remaining 4 games.

      So, for me, there’s a 90% chance of a best 11 for the Swansea game especially as rotation still has 4 games to be implemented in..

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Looking at ur history, why on earth would u care to know? U don’t play the game. 0 transfers 96 TV. Very Weird init? ;)))

      1. batmaniac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Lol
        Should have saved your breath.

        1. Like an Egyptian Magician
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          Yeh I don’t know what I was thinking answering a cheat/joker/phisher..

  18. Football Heaven
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    At first I thought they’d be fine but actually I think palace have a better chance of keeping a cs than arsenal

    1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Agree

  19. Bluth Banana
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Any silly mistakes made with my free hit chip?

    Butland
    VVD / Baines / Bellerin
    Mane / Salah / Sterling / Sane / Ozil
    Jesus / Tosun

    Haugaard / Crouch / Lowton/ Long

    1. VDiesel26
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Free up the money from Lowton / Long to 3.9m players and see if you can get any upgrades

      1. Bluth Banana
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        No need for playing subs you think?

        1. Dsmythy
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 11 months ago

          Of course there's a need for the subs.

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      I’d definitely get rid of Ozil Tosun

  20. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    A or B?
    A. Milner and PVA
    B. Bellerin and Klavan/Moreno
    Thanks.

  21. Super Silva Haze
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Free Hit All Set ?

    Butland
    Baines Bellerin Vvd
    (S)alah Sterling Zaha Kdb Shaqiri
    Lacazette Jesus

    3.9 Lowton Dcl 3.9

  22. AmeliesDad
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    A) Zaha and Silva (Pereira and Crouch)
    Or
    B) Mili and Sane (Pickford and Barnes)

  23. Magic Bean
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Many on here going Jesus(C) over Salah?

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Dunno, but looks like I am, at the moment. Want to go Sterling, but Jesus more n....

  24. Manani
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    front 8:

    Kenedy Salah Willian Sterling Son
    Barnes Auba Kane

    should I get Jesus by switching out Kane for (-4)?

    1. Mayo for Sam
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      No I wouldn't

  25. JackQualt
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Best defender for the rest of the season?
    Particularly without a free hit:
    Is the city rotation too much of a risk?
    Is the lack of a double not enough for Virgil?

    1. Ibracadabra
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      depends on cost, I would say Walker.

      1. JackQualt
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        Imagine no cost.
        You think he’s steady for starts? If your going City is Ota not a better option?

  26. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Free Hit team:

    Pickford
    Walker - Bauer - Moreno
    Salah(c) - Sterling - Shaqiri - Arnautovic - Zaha
    Jesus - Lacazette

    Robles - Ings - Lascelles - Lowton

    Only question for me is Ramsey or Arnautovic

  27. HD7
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    FH team... thoughts?

    Butland
    Baines - Mustafi
    Mane Sterling - Salah Zaha
    Laca Jesus(C)

    Bench: Crouch, Kiko, Long

    A) Klavan, KDB
    B) Milner, Sane

  28. 824545201
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    G2G? (Free Hit)

    Cech
    Baines - Mustafi - VVD
    Sane - Sterling - Zaha - Salah - Mane
    Jesus - Laca

  29. OO
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    hennessey or karius? (or someone else)

    1. Manani
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      karius

  30. focaccia
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 11 months ago

    Any thoughts on my Free Hit Team much appreciated. Nothing spent on bench because well, what's the point?

    Pickford
    Van Dijk, Van Aanholt, Bellerin
    Salah (c), Sterling, Sane, Zaha
    Jesus (v), Aubameyang, Firmino

    1. 824545201
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Firmino and Auba won't start. Look towards Mane and Lacazette.

      1. #Swish41
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 11 months ago

        You cannot say with any certainty Aube will not start

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Firmino not expected to start according to rumours - Anfield Express & BF

    3. VDiesel26
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 11 months ago

      Firminho supposedly not playing tomorrow