Metrics

Metrics – The Gameweek 35 Free Hit

With the curtailed Gameweek 35 now underway, our latest examination of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) metrics will focus on the Free Hit versus the no Free Hit scenario among managers currently ranked in the top 10,000.

As anticipated, the vast majority of Free Hits remaining were activated this week, making the overall usage of the chip jump from 67% to 97.9% in the top 10k. This means that this chip is now the closest to being used-up among the current top 10k.

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The only other chip that saw some significant increase in Gameweek 35 was the second Wildcard, which was activated by 4.78% of managers in the top 10k.

But in today’s analysis, we will concentrate purely on the Free Hit scenario.

With one-third of active managers playing that chip prior to the deadline, this group will doubtless appreciate a view of how they fare compared with their peers.

Similarly, the remaining managers without the chip active can also get a view of how their squads measure up.

As we revealed earlier in the week, the non-Free Hit managers had an average of 7.4 players with a Gameweek 35 fixture before the deadline.

But analysis of the latest data reveals that, as expected, these managers used their free transfers and spent points on further trades to reinforce their squads.

This group in the top 10k took an average of -3.63 points in deductions, which is the biggest “hits” figure I’ve recorded this season.

It meant that the non-Free Hit managers in the top 10k were able to field an average of 9.93 players for Gameweek 35, as detailed below.

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Around 61.5% of them could even field a squad of 10 players or more, which might suffice in keeping pace with Free Hit managers.

However, not surprisingly, the squads with the Free Hit in play avoided all points deductions and averaged 14.7 players active for Gameweek 35.

Now let’s look closer and assess the most popular selections in both the Free Hit and non-Free Hit squads.

Below is a squad made up of the most owned players selected by Free Hit managers in the top 10k.

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Meanwhile, the squad for non-Free Hit managers looks somewhat different:

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We see Mohamed Salah (99.06%) is the dominant figure in Free Hit ranks, along with Gabriel Jesus (98.09%) and Raheem Sterling (94.18%).

Indeed, Salah has a similarly high ownership (92.36%) in non-Free Hit teams.

However, with a blank in Gameweek 34, many non-Free Hit managers were forced to spend points to acquire Jesus and Sterling.

As a result, they are found in just 49.08% and 58.2% of squads respectively.

Their output tomorrow against Swansea City already looks to be crucial in the shake-up among the top 10k managers.

There are other disparities that create a cast of players key to the success of the Free Hit.

Players like Leighton Baines, Hector Bellerin, Kevin De Bruyne and Alexandre Lacazette are far from common factors in non-Free Hit squads.

To examine this further, here is a table of the most owned players in Free Hit teams versus their ownership in the non-Free Hit squads among the top 10k.

PlayerFree Hit Ownershipnon Free Hit OwnershipTotal Top 10k Ownership
Mohamed Salah99.06%92.36%94.43%
Gabriel Jesus98.09%49.08%64.23%
Raheem Sterling94.18%58.20%69.32%
Wilfried Zaha82.24%17.53%37.53%
Kevin Long68.78%15.92%32.26%
Alexandre Lacazette63.93%2.11%21.22%
Leighton Baines62.31%3.20%21.47%
Sadio Mané59.75%9.13%24.78%
Jack Butland43.09%1.11%14.09%
Héctor Bellerín33.19%2.84%12.22%
Virgil van Dijk31.87%14.68%19.99%
Kevin De Bruyne30.54%7.61%14.70%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28.63%51.47%44.41%
Jordan Pickford27.79%6.67%13.20%
Ayoze Pérez24.17%8.39%13.27%
Leroy Sané23.71%16.01%18.39%
Shkodran Mustafi22.29%17.56%19.02%
Xherdan Shaqiri22.00%12.61%15.51%
Luka Milivojevic21.51%41.66%35.43%
James Tomkins19.93%7.63%11.43%
Ragnar Klavan19.61%0.94%6.71%
Matthew Lowton17.63%26.78%23.95%
Wayne Hennessey17.63%12.78%14.28%
Mesut Özil17.18%1.65%6.45%
James Milner16.98%0.23%5.41%
Patrick van Aanholt16.37%2.04%6.47%
Nacho Monreal16.05%9.16%11.29%
Roberto Firmino16.05%43.19%34.80%
Nicolás Otamendi14.36%36.56%29.70%
Marko Arnautovic13.46%15.73%15.03%
Peter Crouch13.33%0.83%4.69%
Nick Pope13.07%24.24%20.79%
Cenk Tosun12.62%4.24%6.83%
Ashley Barnes12.26%22.81%19.55%
David Silva9.90%14.99%13.42%

 

The table highlights that the majority of the selected players in the Free Hit squads show low ownership in non-Free Hit line-ups.

Already today, many non-Free Hit managers will have been hugely relieved at Wilfried Zaha’s blank at Watford given the big disparity in ownership. Some 82.4% of the top 10k Free Hit managers fielded the Eagles winger, compared with 17.5% of the rest of the top 10k.

There are, of course, more opportunities to come with tomorrow’s fixtures.

However, there are also some players who could prove key figures for those without the Free Hit active.

Of these, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (51.47% compared to 28.63%), Nicolás Otamendi (36.56% compared to 14.36%) and David Silva (14.99% compared to 9.9%) look poised to make the most impact.

These major differentials will surely decide how Gameweek 35 affects the current top 10k rankings.

It will be fascinating to carry out a post-mortem on the results and compare these to the impact of the Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 31, when we saw the previous set of reduced fixtures.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a look at each of the Premier league sides most represented in both groups of managers.

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As we can see, every Free Hit manager in the top 10k opted for three Manchester City players. Meanwhile, the non-Free Hit manager has an average of 2.1.

It’s a similar story for Liverpool, with an average of 2.8 players in Free Hit active squads, compared with 2.1 in the rest.

While major Liverpool assets blanked today, it’s essentially Man City and Arsenal (2.1 vs 1.0 players) options that seem likely to decide the gap between the Free Hit and the non-Free Hit managers.

885 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Southgate sighted. Left back position at the World Cup up for grabs, straight shootout between Young and Davies today.

    1. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Isnt Davies welsh

  2. pjomara
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Everyone has the same 9 players basically

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Sane vs De Bruyne looks key.

      1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Vs Gun

        Or is that just me 🙂

      2. JÆKS ⭐
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Add Dilva in the mix as well. Real lottery this one.

        Dilva has the best stats out of the 3 in the last 6 but seems to be a real away player. KDB has the worst stats out of the 3 but seems to be the home player. Sane somewhere in between them. Worth noting though that KDB's biggest hauls were when Dilva wasn't playing. Dilva also outscored KDB during the games Fernandinho was absent. Let's see how this one goes!

        (Ask TFF for the code to the ML btw if you want)

    2. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Not me

    3. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Always same. Total lottery these days. This is what the chips have done to the game

    4. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Liverpool defender vs not a Liverpool defender.

    5. Jake Donahue
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      I went ozil and kdb on against mane and sane/dilva

    6. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Not everyone captained Salah

      I went with Sterling

    7. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Jesus (c) vs Sterling (c) could be crucial

    8. T444
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Can't wait for my juicy gundogan points to add to my hennessey baps

  3. Mark
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 17 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Fascinating stuff. Laca vs Aub can decide the success of the Free Hit tomorrow it seems.

    1. Shultan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      I couldn't decide so got both!!
      Front 3
      Laza/auba/jesus

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      vs Welbeck, who in my opinion is the most nailed to start of the three

    3. eazy
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Hopefully trusting Laca pays off. Not very confident thou

    4. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      I reckon both will start but Auba more likely to play 90 minutes

      1. JÆKS ⭐
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        After that quote from Wenger where he said he wasn't sure if Auba would be involved? I'm fairly certain he will start on the bench

  4. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Did free hitters unload their Burley players? GudBarnson are going to punish you tomorrow!

    1. grumpyman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Can't wait until next week to get them back!

    2. Les Bleus
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Hope it’s 1-0 to Stoke

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Got the wrong Burnley assets unfortunately

      2. JÆKS ⭐
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Yep me too, Butland 3 bonus!

    3. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      I brought more in, now I have 3 on the bench.

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Hope you bench boosted

        1. Epic Fail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 3 days ago

          I wish. I have Hennessey on the bench laughing at me.

          1. Bubz
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 3 days ago

            Just realised I should be actively hoping you do badly due to Demi's league. And your league for that matter

            1. Epic Fail
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              6 years, 3 days ago

              Ha this is true. You're not exactly too far behind either. I'd love it if the season could just end now.

              1. Bubz
                • 10 Years
                6 years, 3 days ago

                Realistically Im just hoping to get in the money Doubt I can catch you

                1. Epic Fail
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  6 years, 3 days ago

                  The one thing that won't help is how similar all our teams will probably be. You may need to do something different. to risk it.

                  1. Bubz
                    • 10 Years
                    6 years, 3 days ago

                    If Sterling(C), Ramsey, Auba + Burnley score big, it could be game on!

  5. Zilla
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    was not a pen? lol

    1. Nascimento
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Refs don't give Utd pens. They hate us. Not actually watching the game but I'm assuming we should have had one.

      1. Zilla
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Yep likewise

  6. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    GTG for gw36? Its my first season, currently ranked 56k, really want to get into top 40k and cement a decent first season.

    Lloris
    VVD Mustafi Klavan
    Salah (vc) Sterling Willian Arnie
    Kane (C) Aubamayang Jesus

    Subs: Hennesey Simpson Mustafi Cork

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Lowton instead of mustafi in starting XI... 1 ft 0.0 itb

  7. dimitros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Who to get in for Alonso?

    A) Valencia( have DDG)
    B) Vertonghen
    C) Other

    1. Sailboats
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      b

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      I would say B but you may want triple Spurs attack with those fixtures so tread carefully.

      1. dimitros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Thanks for the advice!

  8. Epic Fail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    I think someone needs to proof read this article.

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      What with?

      A 40 proof bottle of vodka

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Berbinho maybe?

  9. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    To have Hennessey today was a thing of beauty. 10 lovely points.

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Definetely. But was another story last week when I played the BB chip :/

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Yeah same here. But this makes up for it.

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      The one that got away...... don’t take a hit for a goalie I said to myself as my finger hovered over confirming Ryan to Hennessey!

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        It's annoying when that happens.

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      High five?

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        High 10

  10. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Kane is definitely off the pace

  11. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    8 players on field for Manu played for Ferguson. Only Matic Sanchez Lukaku didn’t.

    1. Rash
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Herrera didn't

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Down to 7 then 😀

    2. Nascimento
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      We need to spend some money.

      1. El-Kloppico
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        some 200M i guess?

    3. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Can't remember but did Lingard actually ever play for United under Fergie?

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Yeah

        1. Somalion
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 3 days ago

          Think he was in the squad once or twice but never played

          1. La Roja
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 3 days ago

            He came on as a sub few times.

            1. Somalion
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 3 days ago

              Debut against Swansea in 2014, never subbed on for a Fergie side
              https://www.transfermarkt.com/jesse-lingard/leistungsdaten/spieler/141660/plus/0?saison=ges

          2. Nascimento
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 3 days ago

            81 appearances before going out on loan in 2012. Sir Fergie retired in 2013

            1. Rash
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 3 days ago

              Made his debut against Swansea in Aug 2014

              1. Somalion
                • 14 Years
                6 years, 3 days ago

                Yep, well remembered, I had to go finding stats

            2. Somalion
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 3 days ago

              😆 Those 81 apps were for the reserves

      2. Rash
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        No so it's down to 7 lol

      3. Rash
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        No so it's down to 6 lol

    4. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      *9 - Anthony Taylor

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        Hahaha

  12. Viper
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Kane looks way off it the past few games. We were lucky to get his tap in vs. Brighton

  13. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Bemba sighting

  14. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Herrara goal

  15. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Bloody nora

  16. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Pogba assist again?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      no

  17. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Herrera goal

  18. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Lukaku miss control was key 😆

    1. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      vision

  19. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Lukaku assist

  20. Waynoo
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    spurs gonna lose another semi

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Bold statement.

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      Get viagra....

  21. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Juuuhuuuuu!!

    I love Herrera.

  22. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Tottenham Hotspurs FC - Bottling since 1852

  23. Tommy J
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Poor keeping- how far across was he...

  24. Jigger & Pony
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Wow that Lukaku touch

  25. Bouncebackability
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Typical Lukaku assist there.

  26. Leaf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Another trophy less season for the ‘great’ Spurs side

  27. Norman Conquest
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Ole, ole, Ander Herrera,
    Ole, ole, ole, ola

  28. adidasOriginals
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Whats the template WC effort for gw 37 then?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 days ago

      3 Spurs 3 Man City 2 Chelsea 2 Swansea 5 others

      1. adidasOriginals
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 3 days ago

        thats what i was thinking.. Leicester not worth a punt?

  29. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Kane not able.

  30. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 days ago

    Spurs need to get Lamela on....