Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. hjalmarekdal
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    When will Anfield Express reveal Liverpool XI? 😉

    1. Podge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Shut down

    2. Bald Eagle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Account suspended. 😉

    3. @fpl_phenom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      they were shut down unfortunately

      1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        How come?

        1. Podge
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          I believe he moved to Leicester

          1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 4 months ago

            That sucks

  2. Adsterguy
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Last couple of tinkers, looking for some input...

    Rest of defense is Robbo Mendy PVA WB
    A) Peltier + 0.5 ITB
    B) Bednarek + 0.5 ITB
    C) 4.5 def (got palace, don't like Cedric)

    X) Mitrovic + 0.5 ITB
    Y) Arnie

    Good luck with your teams everyone!

  3. NUFCAndrew
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Never thought I'd be so happy with my team with only hours before the deadline, not even thinking of any changes...

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      nice!

      let's see it pal

      1. slove
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        I second this

        1. NUFCAndrew
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          Patricio Hamer

          Mendy Robbo Davies Tomkins WB

          Salah Mane Bilva Richarlison Jota

          Kun King Kamara

    2. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Same here, only one change that I might do which is Cedric to Fosu-Mensah

      1. NUFCAndrew
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        not went with either of those...

    3. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      almost same for me, just gotta decide on my 4.5 def

      1. NUFCAndrew
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        tomkins

  4. #FPLBhuna
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    rate it

    hart
    robertson - shaw - mendy
    salah(c) - sanchez - mane - richarlison
    zaha - tosun - king

    fabianski - keane - awb - gunnarson

    1. Podge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Good job

  5. Zeeco
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Hi People ,pick 2 keepers

    A Ryan
    B Foster
    C Begovic
    D Patricio
    E Fabri
    F Fabianski

    Cheers

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      DF

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I'm on Ryan/Button to save the .5mill

      I'd choose 1 and stick

      1. pmletch
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Also playing this

    3. pmletch
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      AD

  6. hjalmarekdal
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    10m to spend on one GK and one Def.
    A) Kepa + Cook
    B) Pickford + Shaw
    C) Foster/other 4.5 + Luiz/Bailly

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      C) With Fabianski and PVA/Coleman/Bailly.

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      c,

  7. Wetdream
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Last decision for me
    Mane + Arnie/Zaha or Firmino + Richarlison/Jota ?
    Thanks

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Mane Tosun for me

    2. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      1st one for me

    3. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Firm and Rich. Everton have a great run of fixtures coming up.

  8. pmletch
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Robertson guaranteed starter every week?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      until CL starts i would imagine so

  9. PL Ball
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Who's your VC?

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

    2. pmletch
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Aguero
      Salah C

    3. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      auba

  10. El Lobito 10
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A. Kun and Patricio
    B. Mane and DDG

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      a easy

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks. Anyone else?

  11. Adambailey
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Robertson, Coleman, m Alonso
    Or
    Davies, Mendy, Robertson?

    1. Podge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Dmr

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      2

    3. One Man
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      B

  12. One Man
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Would you prefer Davis Luiz or a 5.5m midfielder ? Which midfielder ?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Fraser, Kenedy, cairney, screw defence its no fun

  13. MrFootieIsHere
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Which team would YOU field?

    A (3-4-3):
    Foster
    PvA Robbo Mendy
    Salah Mane Bilva Richarlison
    Aguero King Arnie

    B (3-5-2):
    Foster
    TOMKINS Robbo Mendy
    Salah Mane MAHREZ MKHITI Richarlison
    King Aguero

    1. Podge
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

      1. MrFootieIsHere
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks! Reason?

    2. 420king
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  14. 420king
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A. Foster/Ryan + Mendy +0.5 ITB
    B. Ederson/4.0 + Davies

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      a, but would choose 1 and put with a 4, 1m itb

      1. 420king
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Which 4.5+4 combo would you go with?

  15. MrFootieIsHere
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Tomkins (A) or Bednarek (H) for GW1?

  16. Naughty_Khan!
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    RASHFORD, ZAHA, KING or MITRO?? Need a third striker among these 4.
    (Dont say Arni because his initial fixtures are tough)

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      King with those fixtures!

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      i'm on tosun but King from those 4

      1. Naughty_Khan!
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        I played with the idea of Tosun but have Richarlison and don't wanna double up on Everton

  17. My Name Is Prince
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Late decision here, the last piece of the precious puzzle:

    A) Firmino - Ralls/Cairney - TAA
    B) Zaha - Jota - VVD/Robertson

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A with cairney/kenedy, but am worried about TAA gmaetime

  18. MrFootieIsHere
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) PvA, Bilva, Arnie
    B) Tomkins, Mahres, Mkhiti

    ?

  19. jmcclory123
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Given how prolific Aubamayang is, it's surprising that's he's in so few teams. Are there plans to get him in for GW3? WC?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      going with him form start. Swayed by PPG from last season

  20. pmletch
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Think I’m finally happy with the squad!

    Ryan (4.0)
    Mendy, Robertson, W-B (4.0, 4.0)
    Salah, Eriksen, BSilva, Townsend (4.5)
    Aguero, Lacazette, King

  21. Pigsinblankets
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Final decision for me

    A) Sanchez and Jota
    B) Mane and Bilva (have Salah and Kun too)

    1. pmletch
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      B

  22. Adro3
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Feel like team is a bit template.
    Got 0.5 ITB, Rich --> Moura?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      MOura a good shout but probs only nailed for a week or 2. im starting with him cos ill inevitably be wc'ing by gw 6

  23. #FPLBhuna
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    digne or keane?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      not from start for me, but Keane as is more nailed

  24. Pompel
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Bookies odds has Austin at 42% as anytmime golascorer, King at 32% and Tosun at 29%.
    I'm currently on King - food for thought....

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I'm on Tosun, not tasty food

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Anytime this season????

      1. Pompel
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        No, GW1

  25. Brasil82
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Why no Willian or Mkhitaryan love? At 7.5 and 7.0 I think they're both bargains...

    1. El Lobito 10
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Rotation

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Willian does nothing but annoy me on fpl he certainly isn't an assured starter. think there is better arse options than mhki even though he is cheap.

      1. Brasil82
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        In midfield, I really don't think there are better Arsenal options...

    3. Superflymonk
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Mkhi is largely due to fixtures. City and Chelsea not the best place to get attacking returns. But probably a good choice once those two matches are done away with and Emery plays 4-2-3-1. Willian probably may not start against Huddersfield but probably a good option after he gets some minutes. They're on my watchlist.

  26. Obi-1 Kenobi-0
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    I'm going to take a punt on Shaw with the knowledge that AWB is nailed for GW1 at least. Off to work, and my team is locked in!

    Patricio (Norris)
    Mendy Robertson Shaw (AWB, Peltier)
    Salah Sanchez Bilva Richarlison (Zamba)
    Aguero Zaha King

    Save my first FT, then Sanchez + Bilva -> KdB + 5.5mid, and the following week Zaha becomes Laca if he's starting 🙂

    1. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Looks good. Never heard of Zamba tho'.

      1. Obi-1 Kenobi-0
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        He's Fulham's new £25m signing. Only 4.5m bench fodder, defensive midfielder. But once he's had a week or two with the team, he'll be starting every game I'd imagine.

      2. bobby_bookah
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Zambo, new fulham dm, 4.5 but don't expect much attacking output

    2. El Lobito 10
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Guarantee your plans change

      1. bobby_bookah
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        they always do. Flexibility is key at start of season, never rule out a gw2 wc

      2. Obi-1 Kenobi-0
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        My plans won't change... whether I have to divert from them is a different matter, but I have a plan, and I'm hopeful I'll be able to execute them to end up with a nicely balanced team for the fixture shift GW3/4.

        Thanks for the positivity 😉

  27. Chickennuggets224
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    RMT PLEASE FOLKS,

    Fab (Foster)
    Coleman, Mendy, Tompkins (Daniels, Wan-Bissaka)
    Richarlison, Salah (C), Sane, Neves (Cairney)
    Zaha, Aguero, Firmino

    MUCHLY APPRECIATED!

  28. #FPLBhuna
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    mane or aguero?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Kun

  29. ludaslol
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Can't make up my mind..

    A) Mane + Eriksen
    B) Salah + Bailly

    other cap options if I go A would be Sanchez/Kun

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I'm sold on Salah, can always downgrade if needed

  30. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Can anyone list the arguments for getting Tosun, not yet convinced.

    1. NUFCAndrew
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      good differential for richarlison with good fixtures coming up

    2. uhahpaulmcgrath
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      playing up front for an attacking team
      not bad returns under sam

    3. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Decent finisher (inc Fenerbache days), form at end of last season, attacking manager, only real option as spearhead of a, Hopefully, improving forward line which should give him good service. Wife (season ticket at goodison) took some convincing, but said he looked good at end of last season.

    4. Lebowski85
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      As an Everton fan, im expecting 15 goals from him this year...he definitely has the potential. He also has several creative players playing behind him & despite the rumours, his place is not under pressure from Niasse, who is only useful when coming off the bench.