Good post.

Yes very good post. I would concur to a certain extent with regards to ignoring the fixtures and just pick good players that are good value. A lot simpler and you just can't trust the fixtures as literally anything can happen. As an example if you look at when poorer teams play each other there are usually quite a few goals as both teams go for it more

This is my experience too. Now I only look at fixtures for cheap defenders. Attacking players and premium defenders and goalies aren't really affected by fixtures that much.

Great post.
Agree totally on the form, I have transferred out players in the past purely because the fixtures turn sour and it never seems to pan out as I expect.

Form over fixtures. One of the first rules I was told and the last one to learn. Good post.

It is how you play the fixtures that is important.. you have gambles and you have shrewd punts.. gamble with the low value picks with fixtures and the high value picks with form..

Well, I agree with most of it but every situation has its own merits. As a firm believer of form over fixture, it still makes sense to ditch one of Salah or Mane for Hazard because he is also in form and has the fixture as well. So why would not I spread it over two in-form teams instead of one. Having said that, if I had only one LIV attacker, I would absolutely keep. I will also keep Robertson as he is capable of delivering attacking points in any game.

Good post. I think if you took Cardiff out of the equation, I'd pretty much agree.

100% agree with this post.

the only time really you should worry about fixtures is when a team in a little out of form and then have to play against a top 6 or a in form side....but its a moot point as we wouldnt be looking at the out of form teams players!

Good post.

Last season I focussed on fixtures (I’m usually always a form over fixtures man nornally) and had a horror season.

Form trumps fixtures easily. The two together are great through.

I usually go for players who have both, form and fixtures, but out of the two I agree that form is more important.

Hazard has both. Liverpool only have the form, not the fixtures. So there's a case for people to want to bring him in.

Now yes, Liverpool are better than Spurs and Chelsea and it wouldn't shock us if they beat both teams, but in away games, would it really shock you if they lost either? They do have PSG and Napoli to worry about in the midst of all this as well.

Regarding rotation, you're right, they won't be rotated vs Spurs and Chelsea. But disagree about the 90 minutes. It will depend on the outcome of the game of course, but unless they're losing at 70', there's a good chance Salah or more likely Mane is subbed off to be rested for the CL game that follows. So minutes management is quite likely.

I did the same thing and my OR > 3 million.

I see this debate every year. Form is #1 indicator of who you should get. It is literally who is scoring points at that moment in time.
What I would say about fixtures (and it is quite obvious) if you have a choice between two players of similar form- pick the one with the better fixtures.

I agree with you in some aspects. But, it is not 100% Form>Fixtures.

We will choose players with good fixtures and good underlying stats even if they have no good form yet. We will not choose Kante for good Chelsea fixtures.

The point is that although players with good forms still have chance to score in those period, their likelihood of explosive scores like 25 points or 20 points is much diminished.

Salah scored against City last season but he could not scored 4 goals against City just like he did against Watford. Aguero may score 12 points against Man U, but his likelihood of scoring 5 goals against them just like he did against New Castle is much lower.

You mentioned that anything could happen in EPL. You pointed out the games like, Briton 3- Man U 2, Watford 2-Spurs 1, City 1 Wolves 1. But if you carefully check the stats, these were not 100% surprises. Wolves showed good defensive stats before they met City, Watford was a good team with 100% win rate before they met Spurs, Man U is Man U and Mourinho in his 3rd season could lose any team in the world.

You are right, we should not prefer Maddison > Salah or Kante > Salah or Morgan> Robertson. But if we could effectively find the good players with good underlying stats and fixtures against teams who will like to concede big, then you will have a big chance to get many points. Eg- Mitrovis Vs Burnley (16 points), Mane vs Westham (16 points) , etc.

If they scored lets say 15 points more in the same period, even with 8 points hit, you made the right move.

This question seems to be a hot topic multiple times each year, and I dont think were getting much wiser. Its not "form over fixtures" or "fixtures over form", its both.

I think we should look past the colour of the fixtures and let other factors influence our moves. Using bookies odds, one can look at "team total goal scored" over/under, cleansheet odds, and anytime goalscorer odds.

Although odds dont predict whats going to happen, it probably gives us the best indication of whats "most likely to happen". If fixturechanges ifluence both team totals and anytime goalscorer odds of a player your owning, you might want to switch even though he has great form and stats. If it does'nt, you might want to keep, even though the fixtures does'nt look "sexy".

Using Liverpoool: Looking ahead one can easily find that clean sheet odds takes a nosedive when playing spurs away (25-30%), pretty good against soton (50+%), and again bad v cfc (30-35%). Only one cs "looks likely". for comparison, Liverpools CS-odds fluctuated between 40-60% likelyhood in the first 4 fixtures

As for team goals scored, the over/under are almost even at 1.5 v Spurs, 2.5 v Southampton and 1.5 v cfc. This suggests approximately 5 goals over those three fixtures. Thats a decline in goals compared to what they've scored sofar (2.25 goals pr game). This might suggest that the players most involved in pool's goals will have a regression. Mane might be the one who sees his scoring tail off the most, as he's been the one "overachieving". Stats suggests that Salah and Firmino should only see a "small decline".

It's okay for people to be worried about Liverpools fixtures, and consider making moves. Sound logic suggests that they wont be able to get as many points as the yhave been getting. This doesnt mean that they wont score big, it just suggests that its less likely than when they are playing other teams. I think were all to fond of looking at last season or past games, and using this to back up our beliefs. Just because Liverpool scored a lot in some of the games against top sides last season, does'nt necisseraliy mean they will this season. Just because Salah scored against almost all the top sides last season, doesnt mean he will this season.

I decided to just play the fixtures this year.
I normally start badly but am currently in the top 5k !
Last week I swapped Salah for Hazard and Alonso because of fixtures.
TLDR: there are lots of different ways to play FPL, that’s why we love it

You should triple up on Watford then and be happy about it

Well that argument doesn't make sense in general. I shipped Lucas and Firmino in gw3 for example since both were not playing well. 3 goals and 2 assists in the 2 games after that combined. So as a side note, form over fixtures isn't always the right way to judge it. Another example is King who was on a great pre season form and a poor fpl asset so far