FPL Question Time – Selling Salah and considering Martial

The future of Mohamed Salah in Fantasy Premier League teams has been seriously called into question despite another eight-point haul in Gameweek 12.

We’ve put that question to our latest panel for FPL Question Time as well as some other key issues.

That includes whether it’s time to sign Manchester United’s in-form Anthony Martial and what value there is at Newcastle currently.

Who’s on the panel this week?

Ben McNair – An expert in FPL metrics. Has four top 5,000 finishes to his name in his time as a Fantasy manager.

Paul Gee – Finished second in the world in 2017/18 and is ranked seventh in our Career Hall of Fame.

Josh Landon and Brandon Kelley – New York-based co-hosts of the excellent Always Cheating podcast.

Question 1 – Ben

Alex C: Are any players from Newcastle worth considering after the international break, taking into account their run of fixtures and low ownership?

“Dubravka, Kenedy and Rondon are worth considering, but I won’t be rushing to bring any of them in. Kenedy as a fifth midfielder looks the most viable route for my own team.

“Dubravka is a good keeper, but faces stiff competition from cheaper alternatives like Patricio and Fabianski. I like to own keepers from teams with a low ratio of shots conceded inside the box to shots conceded outside the box. That ratio is around 2:1 for Newcastle over the season to date, which is a bit surprising given their reputation as a defensive team. Only Cardiff, Southampton and Huddersfield have a worse ratio.

“Kenedy is cheap enough to be a fifth midfielder and has taken an encouraging 21 shots over the past six gameweeks, though only five were on target. It’s been Callum Paterson with the most impressive numbers at that price point, but Kenedy has more talent and I think he’ll be involved if Newcastle can maintain some form. A gamble, but you get what you pay for.

“Rondon impressed at the weekend, but I’d wait for more evidence. Raul Jimenez looks a safer pick at the moment and there are great options like Arnautovic and Callum Wilson that don’t cost a lot more.”

Question 2 – Paul

FPLGEEZER: After the international break and the coming fixture turn, is is time to break up the template and consider going without Salah and Mane with the increasing number of mid-price options in midfield? Richarlison, Felipe Anderson and Martial all look good.

“I am using Salah as a template example because I actually don’t believe Mane is a typical template player. It is definitely time to consider whether Salah is still worth the downgrade.

“The only player that I would consider is Sterling. The reason for this is he is still a key captain choice.

“Within my team template I always have three of these, my current options being Salah, Aguero and Hazard.

“There will be a number of things I will be considering before making this move.

“Salah’s fixtures are really not that bad. Some people are talking as though Watford (away), Everton (home), Burnley (away) and Bournemouth (away) are the equivalent of Man City, Barcelona, Real Madrid and PSG. Clearly his schedule still holds great appeal.

“Of course, we have to think about Salah’s price too. He is a very expensive asset and a big chunk of the budget goes on him. The key question is: What will you with the extra money?

“You could potentially upgrade a fourth Defender to a premium one sucas, Robertson, Alonso and Mendy. Or you could upgrade a mid-priced fourth into a premium or your third striker into a mid-priced forward. Even going to Sterling, who I think is the best Salah replacement, frees up around £2m that could be well-spent.

“We have to consider Salah’s form too, which seems to be more explosive at home, like other key captain choices. We must remember that in his next four gameweeks he is at home only once.

“At Anfield, Jurgen Klopp has started to play the 4-2-3-1 system which really seems to benefit Salah, as he takes up a more advanced role. This was the case against Southampton, Cardiff and Fulham at home, which yielded eight, 15 and eight points respectively.

“Where Klopp feels he will need extra support in midfield he prefers 4-3-3. This normally is away from home and in my opinion explains the drop in output from Salah.

“In conclusion, it really is a difficult choice whether to drop Salah or not as his fixtures aren’t too bad. It is perhaps his price that is the deal-breaker for me. It is simply too much for someone whose form tends to drop off away from home. So I would say it is worth the downgrade in order to upgrade one or two players.”

Question 3 – Josh

James Wood: Jamie Vardy (-2.14) and James Maddison (-1.37) have the worst xGI delta for strikers and midfielders respectively in the past four Gameweeks. Despite having four favourable fixtures in the next five, do the panel think it’s time to look elsewhere?

“I think we can officially give Maddison this year’s Dusan Tadic Award for the player most likely to create great chances that don’t actually lead to goals.

“His FPL value is more as playmaker – sort of a poor man’s KdB or Eriksen – but I’m not sure there’s anyone outside Vardy and Maguire who’s actually capable of scoring goals with the chances he creates.

“He can often be found playing fairly deep so I don’t think you can expert more than a handful of goals from him this season.

“As for Vardy, he’s now gone five weeks without an attacking return and he wasn’t exactly facing difficult opponents.

“He’ll be 32 in January and you do wonder if he’s losing some of the pace that once allowed him to catch teams on the break a few times each year (obviously, losing his link-up partner in Mahrez hurts here, too).

“It will be interesting to see what happens if (when?) Puel is fired and whether a new manager is better able to take advantage of this team’s strengths. Iheanacho in particular seems like a player in need of a fresh start.

“For the time being, I’m staying away from the Leicester attack despite their fixtures.”

Question 4 – Brandon

David Hunter: With Man Utd’s upcoming fixtures and his form, is Martial the differential that we’ve been looking for?

“The simple answer is: Yes, Martial is indeed the differential you’ve been looking for. But, like with most key differential players, Martial is poised to quickly move into the realm of template.

“Going into Gameweek 9, the French winger was owned by just 37,606 managers. But, as he has continued to rack up consistent minutes and attacking points, his ownership sits at 608,827—that’s 12% of managers.

“This international break is crucial for manager’s trying to deciding if and when to take the plunge with Martial for no other reason than his price and ownership continuing to rise.

“We can’t ignore a player who’s scored in six goals, with one assist, in his last five games, regardless of the team. And Manchester United are about to embark on a terrific run of fixtures all the way through the festive period.

“Hosting Arsenal in Gameweek 15 will hardly give managers cold feet, thus away at Anfield in Gameweek 17 is the only fixture left in this calendar year where there would be significant doubts with United ability to score.

“Martial seems to have finally won the trust of Mourinho, and with Lukaku struggling, he looks to be United main route to goal. (Throw in the fact that Martial has won penalty duty when Pogba is not on the pitch!)

“Despite a classic mysterious ‘injury’ for the international break that managers will have to monitor, it appears to be all up side with Martial going forward.”

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