Spot the Differential

Kolasinac’s penalty box touches make him an appealing FPL differential

With yet another Fantasy Premier League Gameweek upon us, we’ve taken to championing the cases of three overlooked FPL assets in our regular Friday feature.

All of these differentials have an FPL ownership of 3% or less and each player enjoys an appealing home fixture in Gameweek 16.

Javier Hernandez (£6.3m)

FPL ownership: 2.7%

A hamstring injury sustained by Marko Arnautovic (£7.1m) leaves a West Ham-shaped hole in many Fantasy managers’ squads, with the Austrian set to be unavailable for the next month.

The Hammers’ fixtures are the best in the league over the next six Gameweeks (at least, according to our Season Ticker) and there has been plenty of Fantasy investment over the past month, with Lukasz Fabianski (£4.6m) and Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) both rising in price in the past few days.

Another West Ham player to enjoy a price hike last night was our first differential pick of the week: Javier Hernandez.

Chicarito’s place in the West Ham starting XI looks perhaps even more secure now, with Arnautovic injured and there being room for two strikers in Manuel Pellegrini’s 4-4-2.

Lucas Perez (£6.2m) and Andy Carroll (£5.4m) may eat into Hernandez’s gametime over the coming month but this weekend we’re backing the Mexican striker to deliver at home against Crystal Palace.

Hernandez’s performance in the win over Cardiff in midweek admittedly causes some concern, with the striker not having a single penalty box touch or shot on goal before his substitution midway through the second half.

The Mexico international was starved of service against the Bluebirds though and we’ll instead focus on his display at St. James’ Park a week ago, when he scored twice and racked up four big chances against the Magpies – twice as many as any FPL forward in Gameweek 14.

No team has created more of these big chances over the last five Gameweeks than the Hammers, with only two clubs having recorded more shots in the box over that period.

Sead Kolasinac (£4.9m)

FPL ownership: 1.5%

Arsenal are one of only three clubs in the Premier League not to have registered a clean sheet over the last eight Gameweeks but this differential defender’s appeal is less about his side’s solidity at the back and more concerned with his attacking potential.

Sead Kolasinac has registered an incredible 27 penalty box touches over the last four Gameweeks, nine more than any other FPL defender and indeed more than any forward has managed during this period.

While he has only recorded two attempts on goal over the last four rounds of Premier League matches, no defender can better his record of ten key passes and three big chances created over that spell.

Two assists in the 2-1 win over Bournemouth a fortnight ago highlighted his attacking potential, which has been increased since Unai Emery switched to a wing-back system.

The injury to Rob Holding (£4.4m) is a worry given the dearth of fit centre-halves available to Emery and if the Gunners boss wishes to continue with a 3-4-2-1 he may be relying on the return to fitness of Nacho Monreal (£5.4m) this weekend.

Nevertheless, even as an orthodox left-back Kolasinac can be counted upon to bomb forward at will and, from a defensive perspective, the Gunners will be up against a Huddersfield side who have created fewer big chances away from home than any other Premier League club in 2018/19.

Victor Camarasa (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 1.5%

Callum Paterson (£5.3m) is the obvious go-to Cardiff City asset this Saturday for the match against Southampton, given that the “out of position” FPL midfielder looks set to lead the line against a Saints side that has conceded more goals (15) than any other Premier League club over the last five Gameweeks.

However, we’ll instead look towards the man who has been supporting him in attack over the past few weeks: Victor Camarasa.

The budget midfielder and set-piece specialist has effectively been playing as a “number 10” behind Paterson recently and with FPL managers casting a wary eye over the inevitable rotation over the coming month, Cardiff’s on-loan midfielder could be a decent bench fodder option to be called upon in an emergency: Camarasa has started the last 14 games for the Welsh club since his move from Betis.

Our interest was piqued further this morning when Neil Warnock confirmed that Camarasa would succeed Joe Ralls (£4.7m) as the Bluebirds’ first-choice penalty-taker from this weekend onwards.

No budget midfield option available for under £5.0m has created as many chances as Camarasa this season, either.

With Kenneth Zohore (£4.7m) set for a return to fitness by Gameweek 18, Paterson’s run as a makeshift striker could be coming to an end – but the corner-taking Camarasa looks as secure as any player in Warnock’s starting XI.

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874 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Assisting the assister
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Advice please?

    Arnie + Alonso> Lazarette + Balbuena -4

    0 ITB

    Backline is TAA, Robbo, Doherty and AWB.

    1. mysteryDave
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      It is a risk. You need Lacazette to score just to pay back the hit.

      Still I'd take a punt.

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Really, that's nonsense. He wouldn't just have Lacazette for 1 week.

        He is getting rid of 2 players at the right time (one injured and the other at serious risk of being dropped and with an awful fixture anyway) and getting in 2 players with good longer-term prospects. Though I think Diop would be a better pick than Balbuena.

        That's a good hit in my view, especially seeing that the main transfer can't be done without the 2nd one.

        1. fedolefan
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          All this talk of Alonso being dropped is getting silly especially given Sarri clearly said why he prefers Alonso in the team. Sarri's a very stubborn manager given how he's used Kante this season, so he's not going to turn into Emery overnight changing tactics just because a few people start crowing on Chelsea forums. You just don't act on speculation with premium fpl assets and one of the more important players in the Chelsea team.

          The hit and the move may end up fine, but the reasoning used to justify it is fairly poor.

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 4 months ago

            I regularly go to games at Chelsea and probably have a better idea than you do. I could name 3 games at least where Alonso's defensive errors have cost Chelsea points; meanwhile Palmieri has been very good when he has played. In addition, Sarri has reined Alonso back and if it weren't for the freakish points he scored in the first 4 weeks of the season (before that happened) many more would have dumped him in FPL by now. He's not worth 7m+.

            Sorry and all that but I'm not speculating, I'm talking about what I know. Not my fault if it doesn't suit you.

            1. fedolefan
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 4 months ago

              So, I don't think Alonso is worth 7m+ too and I don't think you can assume that's what he costs everyone. FYI, I'm benching him this week and he cost me 6.5m to buy, upto 6.8m or whatever. He is no better or worse than a Robertson for me, both of whom may or may not be best value. It's a different debate.

              I'm sure since you go to Chelsea games, you could also name me a couple of games where Jorginho's errors have cost/nearly cost Chelsea points. Doesn't mean anything with Sarri. He's appears to be not very reactive and has his favorites.

              The point I was trying to make with my post was drop Alonso from your team if you don't think his form is good enough. But don't drop him from your team because you think Sarri will drop him. That is acting on speculation, which you are.

    2. Scotty B
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Do it

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I don't know if it's the best possible move without seeing the whole team, but I believe that it's a positive hit, in that the new players will outscore the old by much more than 4 points in the next month imo. Balbuena is a great option in the starting XI or on the bench.

  2. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts much appreciated 🙂

    A. Robertson Kolasinac
    B. TAA Bellerin (+0.4)
    C. TAA Davies (+0.2)

    Fabianski
    ____ ____ Doherty
    Sterling Sane Son Fraser
    Kane Aubameyang Jimenez

    (4.0 AWB Camarasa Chambers)

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      B very easily for me buddy

      1. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers, would you downgrade Camarasa > Gunnarsson to give 0.5 spare to upgrade backup GK or just stick with Fabs set and forget?

    2. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      b

    3. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Also considering :

      D. TAA Kolasinac + Lloris (Fab out)

    4. mysteryDave
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      D. TAA Kolasinac (+0.9)

      1. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Could do that, keep Patricio (or another 4.5GK)
        and have 0.4 ITB

      2. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Or 0.9 could be used for Son > Eriksen

        1. Legomané
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          which i think might be better this week (Son's mins) but prefer Sonny in the longer term

  3. Jindaljain
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Transfer in...Aubameyang or Salah??

    1. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      auba

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      What a weird one.
      Auba without question.

  4. Jonny HOW SON?
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Best one week punt?

    1. Greek Flair
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Martin Kelly

    2. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      siggy probably. maybe barnes/vokes?

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

  5. simong1
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Suggested bench order for the below three?
    1) Success (eve)
    2) Gunnarsson (SOU)
    3) AWB (whu)

    1. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      2 3 1

  6. DGW blindness is for Kinnea…
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Assuming most have AWB, who is your 5th defender? especially those on a WC. Diop (4.3m) seems like a decent option with good fixtures

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      AWB is the best 4th defender.

    2. Lallama
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Awb IS my 5th defender

      Robbo, TAA, Doherty, Schindler, AWB. I trust Hudders defense more than West Ham's.

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Schindler.
      I have Fab though.

    4. DGW blindness is for Kinnea…
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers for Schindler lads

  7. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Hazard & Arnie --> Laca & Son for a -4?

    1. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I did that except Siggy for Son. Son isn't guaranteed to start and Poch said he would rotate.

  8. sentz05
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Kun out Auba in -4

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      yeah

    2. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      no

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

    4. KingofWHL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      of course, it's a no brainer

  9. Acrux66
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Fast question Mane for(-4) Sane or Eriksen /or just keep got Zabaleta on bench

    1. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      eriksen

    2. Bartowski
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I would say no.

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Play Zab

  10. Botman and Robben
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    All set?

    Ederson
    Robbo Digne Doherty
    Sane Hazard Richalison(V) Eriksen
    Auba(C) Wilson Jimenez

    Boruc Alonso AWB Højbjerg

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Very much so.

  11. grayedog
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    I know I've posted a couple times, but I can't seem to get an answer:
    ...is Trippier's injury something to be concerned about (where I should be bringing in Doherty or TAA instead?)

    1. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      trippier is 100% injured and will not play tomorrow.

      1. grayedog
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Thank you! Does that mean it's not worth bringing him in, or is it a 1 game absence where not having to FT later makes it worth it?

        1. BenDavies
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          do not bring in trippier now. bring him in once the injury clears up. just a wasted slot. go for bellerin.

        2. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Don’t think anyone needs to tell you not to buy injured players

    2. Lallama
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Considering the hectic fixture list, I'd avoid having him in the team.

    3. The 5% Team
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I would bring in either one of those two...especially in this period with lots of fixtures and rotation. Both Doh and TAA are fairly nailed as starters

      1. grayedog
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        What about Bellerin or Mustafi, as suggested above? Are both nailed on? Fixtures look much better than TAA or Doherty ahead

  12. Jindaljain
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Balbuena playing against Cry (H) or Toby alderwiereld..??

    1. Lallama
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      balbuena

  13. HD7
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Bellerin or Kola?

    Does Holding injury make Kola sure starter like Bellerin
    or go with the more expensive player

    1. La vida FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      In same situation. Really like kola but worried about his starting place long term

  14. lespaul
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Dumb question alert.
    If a player controls the ball in the box and shoots is that 1 or 2 touches in the box?

    1. Eytexi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      2. I dont understand how that could be one.

      1. Eytexi
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Am i missing something

    2. Volley127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Great question actually. I assume it would have to count as 2?

    3. Numb
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I assumed 1 but I don’t know now you’ve said it

    4. lespaul
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I thought touches could mean number of times a player has possession of the ball

    5. George James
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      unless he does it in one motion which is pretty much impossible. Its 2

      1. Numb
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        What about if a player dribbles in the box? Is that counted as several “touches”?

  15. Footballprofessor
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts about my team?

    Hart
    Van Dijk, Laporte, Doherty
    Richa, Hazard, FAnderson, Maddison
    Laca (c), Wilson, Auba (vc)

    Hennessey, Alonso, Deulofeu, Jazz Richards

  16. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Is it safe to do

    A Arnie to laca (c) for free

    Or should I do

    B Arnie and Alonso to auba (c) and kolasinac for -4

    ?

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      A or b?

      1. storr84
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        A

  17. i am jose mourinho
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Who to play ings or camarasa

    1. Lallama
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Ings probably won't play

    2. The 5% Team
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Don't think Ings will play...but you can line him up, with Camarasa first on the bench maybe

  18. La vida FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on this wc team?

    Fab, Hamer
    TAA, Bellerin, Doherty, AWB, Schindler
    Sterling, Sane, Anderson, Rich, brooks
    Kane, Auba, Jimenez

  19. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Mané injured now too. Geez!!! Hopefully Knockhart starts, ffs. This is bad. Have already taken a 4-pointer...

    1. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      this is why we wait until friday evening to make transfers...

    2. TerryVenables
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Mane was injured last week

  20. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Choose one to captain out of these:

    A) Alli

    B) Richarlison

    C) Kane (will he start?)

    1. mojoindojo
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      C

  21. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Chances of Lacazette starting?

    1. Lallama
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Pretty high imo. I could see both him and Auba starting

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I think likely

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        I'll be both disappointed and surprised if he doesn't...

        1. Numb
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Shocked and dismayed here

    3. Numb
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Should do

  22. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Any thoughts on who to play, Yedlin (WOL) or Antonio (CPL)?

    Antonio more likely to be benched than not, I'd say, but an attacking sub for a West Ham team at home could do damage.

    I like Yedlin, though I'm not sure if his attacking threat will be increased or diminished be Wolves' set-up. Probably diminished thanks to Wolves being far from pushovers. So is a CS more likely than Antonio involvement?

    1. Numb
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Hmm, that’s a tricky one. Maybe Yedlin if you feel that Antonio will be benched, although I can’t really see a CS

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers Numb. Unfortunately the sensible more appears to be the boring move as usual. Ended up being relatively pointless to triple on West Ham attackers haha

        1. Numb
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          It’s one of those that you’re bound to get wrong tbh. Sod’s law.

  23. mojoindojo
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Play 1
    Laporte CHE (A)
    Yedlin WOL (H)
    AWB WHU (A)

    Cheers!

  24. AdamJ91
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Could someone RMWC please?

    Fabianski, Hamer
    TAA, Digne, Schindler, Bennett, AWB
    Sterling, Sane, Son, Richarlison, Gunnarsson
    Kane, Auba, Jimenez

    Slightly worried I don't have any WH cover with their fixtures although Son could easily become F.Anderson or Snodgrass.

    1. Valar(Keith)
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I'm a fan of a cheap defense.. But yours is a bit too cheap. If it was Doherty over Bennett it would work.. But I think your defense will struggle and strain a bit too much. Id get Anderson for son and upgrade a bit

  25. Garth Marenghi
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Chances of Kane being benched?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      49%

      1. BenDavies
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        lol more like 25%

    2. Eytexi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      None.

    3. Numb
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      10%

      Could be his annual benching

    4. XabiAlonso
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      1%

    5. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Hmm, well the odds did go lower

    6. i am jose mourinho
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      0 chances but 100% he wont play more than 60 mins

    7. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      For who?

      1. Garth Marenghi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Alli and Fernando up top. Idk

  26. R.C
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Play who?

    1. Wilson
    2. Alonso

    1. mojoindojo
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      1

    2. KingofWHL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Has to be Wilson, Liverpool will give up goals tomorrow

    3. Kub3
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Wilson. City will beat Chelsea comfortably IMO

  27. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Aubameyang or Laca?

    1. Numb
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

    2. BenDavies
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      for tomorrow, laca. long term, auba

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

  28. Rushford
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    A) Auba + F Anderson + Digne

    B) Laca + Sane + Digne

    C) Laca + Son + Vertonghen

  29. Boomerang V
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Which 3 should I start:

    1 - Alonso (MCI)
    2 - Robbo (bou)
    3 - Balbuena (CRY)
    4 - Doherty (new)
    5 - AWB (whu)

    Currently playing first 3 but I am starting to wonder if I should play Deherty over Alonso.

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      2,3,4

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Either:
      1,2,3
      or
      2,3,4

  30. cescpistols111
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Best replacements for Mane and Arnautovic?

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I did Snodgrass and Auba

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Anderson and Auba

      1. cescpistols111
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Already have Auba :/ Mid is Haz, Mane, Alli, Rich and Stephens

    3. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Sané and Mitrovic