Making Sense of Man City’s Madness

There’s no question that Man City’s midfield is stacked with talent, especially in FPL terms.

Man City players hold two of the Top 5, three of the Top 10, and five of the Top 16 midfield spots in the FPL points rankings.  Among these elite City players, two look a cut above: Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane. They have combined for 188 points through 16 gameweeks (nearly 16 points per game between them) despite Pep Guardiola’s occasional rest and rotation.

Do you have them both already?

I’ve never owned more than one City midfielder on my team this year but I’ve been contemplating a double or even a triple-up. In particular, I’m keen on the Sterling/Sane one-two punch, but that would require parting ways with either Mohamed Salah or Harry Kane.  The former is coming off a hat-trick and the latter faces Burnley at home.  Not exactly an easy choice, so I needed to run some numbers to see just how good Man City has been and to try making sense of Pep’s rotation heading into the busy holiday stretch.

ANALYZING THE LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS

Through some spreadsheet magic I analyzed City’s last six Premier League matches.  Over this stretch from early November, City has won five despite three midweek Champions League matches.  If the most recent loss at Chelsea was only a blip, we can expect nothing but wins, goals, and even more rotation as City play four Premier League, one Champions League, and one League Cup game over the last three weeks of 2018.

The fixtures are quite good during the holiday period as City host Everton and Palace at home before traveling to Leicester and Southampton.  On paper, the only real tests for their high-powered offense for the rest of the season are the showdown with Liverpool in GW21 and two tough home matches when Chelsea and Spurs travel to the Etihad in GW26 and GW35.

FPL managers should consider two if not three City midfielders during that stretch. But which ones? There’s no time like the present since City’s other assets aren’t particularly tempting right now: Kevin De Bruyne is close to a return but not back yet and Benjamin Mendy is still out, Ederson and the defense average less than 3 PPG over the last six matches (only one clean sheet), and Sergio Aguero is nursing his latest injury.  There’s room for up to three of:

• Sterling (£11.6, 50 points over the last six, 10 points per game played)
• Sane (£9.5, 47 points, 7.8 PPG)
• David Silva (£8.7, 31 points, 5.2 PPG) [declared out after this article was written]
• Bernardo Silva (£7.5, 24 points, 4.8 PPG)
• Riyad Mahrez (£8.5, 22 points, 4.4 PPG)
• Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4, 21 points, 4.2 PPG).

We know Sterling and Sane are in blistering form (only Felipe Anderson with 48 points and Salah with 46 are in the same class of late). But what of the rest of City’s attacking mids? David Silva [declared out after this article was written] looks the best of the bunch after Sterling and Sane, but he left the last game with what sounds like a minor hamstring injury. The look only at the last six games may also be a bit unfair to Mahrez who had two double-digit hauls just before that (and four so far this season).

CAN WE READ PEP’S MIND (AND OTHER QUESTIONS)

How does Pep set his teams?  Could we possibly try to outsmart Pep? Or even get inside his head to guess who will start?

Compared to other more nailed-on big hitters can you trust City players with the armband? If they don’t start, you risk captaincy disaster if they come on as a substitute for a dreaded “one pointer” performance.  Should we stick with Kane or Salah or Eden Hazard who are more clearly in the fantasy driver’s seat of their teams’ attack?

Rest and rotation are often cited as the biggest worry with City but how big a worry are they?  Sadly, there’s no “Etihad Express” on Twitter and Pep’s notoriously hard to predict, but the stats don’t lie over the last six weeks and they show a lineup that is pretty settled.  Sterling is the main man in terms of fantasy points over that period, followed closely by Sane.  Of the midfielders examined:

• Bernardo, David Silva, Sterling and Sane have each started five of the last six
• Mahrez has started three and come on for 27 minutes as a sub in two
• Gundogan has started two and been a well-used sub in three (averaging 23 minutes per sub appearance)
• When David Silva’s out of the lineup (or subbed), often it’s for Gundogan (who also swaps starts with Bernardo)
• David Silva and Jesus (when starting) are the most frequently subbed off by Pep, then Mahrez
• Sterling has no sub appearances in the first 16 gameweeks.  The past two seasons he’s had 33 starts and four sub appearances each year, but so far this year he either starts (13 of 16) or is rested completely (3).

This last stat, and Sterling’s 10 PPG average in his last five, make him the best City captain choice with the least risk of getting a single point off the bench (but never say never).  I’ve got Sterling in my team and he’s not leaving anytime soon.

MIDFIELD COMBOS – MAN CITY AND BEYOND

All that said, what are the best midfield combos from City?  Or are you better off with just one player?  Below, City’s best mids are grouped into five combinations that might tempt fantasy managers at different price levels. They also get compared to the rest of the in-form midfielders in FPL, from Salah and Hazard in the premium bracket to mid-priced stars like Heung-Min Son, Richarlison and Anderson to budget-friendly options like Ryan Fraser.

A lineup of 3-5-2 seems smart during the holiday blitz with all the high-scoring midfielders and the recent lack of clean sheets and injury woes among forwards.  I’ve personally set a maximum budget of £43 million across the midfield so I can keep a decent defense and three starting strikers including Kane as my big hitter up front.  I’m keeping Richarlison and Fraser since I’ve had them since GW1 and they’re still providing great returns, so let’s call it £30 million across the remaining three spots.

1.      Sterling, Sane, David Silva (128 points over 6 weeks; £29.8; 2 always start; 50% of games they all start together)

2.      Sterling, Sane, Mahrez (119 points; £29.6; 2 of 3 always start; rarely start all together)

3.      Sterling, Sane, Bernardo (121 points; £28.6; 2 always start; 50% of games they all start)

4.      Sterling, Sane, Gundogan (118 points; £26.5; 2 start 70% of games; rarely start all together)

5.      Sterling, David Silva, Gundogan (102 points; £25.7; 2 almost always start; rarely start all together)

Getting in Sterling, Sane, and David Silva is the clear points winner among Man City players, but also the most expensive.  You’ll always have two of them starting and half the time you’ll have them all in your lineup (if the last six games are any guide – Pep may still surprise us). But with David Silva’s minor injury, could Mahrez be the more explosive play?  And if David Silva sits out, Bernardo and Gundogan could flourish and would cost substantially less.

Looking outside of City’s roster, if you keep holding Richarlison and Fraser constant as fourth and fifth midfielders, can any three non-City midfield combo match the recent scoring form of Sterling, Sane, and David Silva?  Surprisingly, yes:

6.      Salah, Son, and Anderson gets you more points (134 over six weeks) for slightly less (£28.8).

Son’s dazzling form is perhaps more at risk of rotation, but you can’t argue with how those three are playing.  However, do you want to be without any City attack?  I’d be too scared to watch City games… and they’re too exciting not to watch.

When you start to mix and match City and non-City in-form midfielders you can do even better:

7.      Sterling, Sane & Son (137 points over six games, £29.6, also sounds like a very reputable law firm)

8.      Sterling, Son, Anderson (138 points over six games, £27.4)

And best of all:

9.      Sterling, Anderson, Sane (145 points, £28.4)

CONCLUSION

There’s plenty to choose from depending on which club you support and how much money you’ve got in the bank.  If I can give up Salah after his big score this week, I will definitely go with two Man City mids, but probably not three.

The only note of caution is the same as always: past returns do not predict future performance… in FPL or in the stock market.

City’s attack is as sure as any, and while none of these midfield combos are cheap, can you afford to go without when your mini-league rivals are getting them in?

The form and fixtures for City, Spurs, and West Ham all look good through the holidays, so give yourself the gift of a new midfield even if you have to take a few hits.

You’ve earned it.

Submitted by FFS member FPLephant (https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/profiles/fplephant/)