Remaining FPL lessons learned from Gameweek 18 matches

Owners of Manchester City assets were unfortunate not get more returns for their investment against Crystal Palace.

That is the key lesson learned from the coupon-busting result at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

With Christmas Day and the Boxing Day-orientated Gameweek 19 round the corner, we have done basic summaries of all the remaining Gameweek 18 matches we had not analysed yet.

We’ve got all of the basic talking points in this Scout Notes article…

Bournemouth 2-0 Brighton

David Brooks (£5.0m) stole the headlines as Bournemouth beat Brighton, proving that he should still be on our Fantasy radars. The former Sheffield United midfielder returned to the side after not featuring against Wolves to punish his sellers, notably one Scoutcast contributor Az. It was a cruel one for those who had moved him on as after it seemed as if he might have lost his place.

While Ryan Fraser (£6.3m) being benched was frustrating, he did still manage to get an assist, even if it wasn’t in the set piece situation many of us were expecting. Furthermore, the fact that he only played 25 minutes means he is one of the few names we can be confident of starting on Boxing Day away at Spurs.

Junior Stanislas (£6.0m) is another whose Gameweek 19 start looks fairly likely as he came off in the 65th minute while Brooks played close to the full game, coming off in late stoppage-time.

Also playing most of the match was Josh King (£6.3m), although he did get replaced by Lys Mousset (£4.9m) in the 86th minute, while Callum Wilson (£6.9m) was out there for the duration.

It was a rare clean sheet for Bournemouth, just their fifth of the season, eight Gameweeks after their last one. However, it should be of no surprise to see Brighton struggling away from home once again.

The Seagulls named Glenn Murray (£6.5m) on the bench, as has become the custom on their travels this season, starting Florin Andone (£5.0m) up front and Jurgen Locadia (£5.3m) on the left-wing.

That meant Solly March (£5.0m) operated on the right, with Anthony Knockaert (£5.4m) reduced to a 70th-minute substitute.

Chris Hughton also sat his formation a little deeper than usual, switching from his usual 4-4-1-1 to a 4-1-4-1 with Davy Pröpper (£4.8m) as the holding midfielder. It was an understandable approach considering Bournemouth’s ruthless streak at the Vitality Stadium but it ultimately proved in vain.

Brighton’s troubles at the back were also exacerbated by the fact that Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) was sent off for a second yellow card in the 73rd minute. He will now miss the Boxing Day visit of Arsenal to the Amex Stadium. The event was made all the more frustrating considering Hughton’s insistence that Dunk’s first yellow card was issued to him erroneously, and that the referee showed it to the centre-back after Yves Bissouma‘s (£4.7m) foul.

Dunk should be replaced by Shane Duffy (£4.6m) in Gameweek 19 as he returns from his three-game suspension then.

Bournemouth XI (4-4-2): Begović; Daniels, Aké, Cook, Francis; Stanislas (Fraser 65′), Surman, Lerma, Brooks (Ibe 90+2′); King (Mousset 86′), Wilson.

Brighton XI (4-1-4-1): Ryan; Bernardo, Dunk, Balogun, Montoya; Pröpper; Locadia (Knockaert 70′), Bissouma, Groß (Bong 76′), March; Andone (Murray 80′).

Chelsea 0-1 Leicester

While the 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Leicester may have owners of Chelsea assets concerned, the Blues do appear to have been unfortunate. They came out of the Stamford Bridge encounter with an expected goals score of 2.45, having hit the woodwork on several occasions.

Meanwhile, Leicester won the game with a solitary textbook Jamie Vardy (£8.8m) goal despite recording an expected goals score of just 0.51.

With a trip to Watford on Boxing Day, whose defence has largely been leaky (see more below), there seems to be little to be worried about for the likes of Eden Hazard (£11.0m) and even Marcos Alonso (£7.0m).

The left-back was responsible for one of Chelsea’s woodwork efforts, and was, therefore, inches from getting his first attacking return since Gameweek 11. That is now two league matches in a row that Alonso has hit the post and Hazard was the only player to have more shots against Leicester than him, so it’s possible he will find the net again soon.

Likewise, only two players have had more touches in opposition penalty boxes over the last four Gameweeks than Hazard, who has created 12 chances in that time. In fact, he looks like a strong captain candidate for Gameweek 19.

As for his false-nine position, he may be moved from it against Watford more out of necessity than anything else. Willian (£7.3m) was able to get a rest in the 61st minute against Leicester, but Pedro (£6.3m) played the whole game. If Sarri wants to rest the Spaniard at Vicarage Road then he could start Olivier Giroud (£7.7m) and push Hazard wide.

Chelsea XI (4-3-3): Kepa; Alonso, Luiz, Rüdiger, Azpilicueta; Kovačić (Loftus-Cheek 61′), Jorginho (Fabregas 75′), Kanté; Willian (Giroud 61′), Hazard, Pedro.

Leicester City XI (4-3-3): Schmeichel; Chilwell, Maguire, Morgan, R Pereira; Ndidi, Mendy, Choudhury; Maddison (D Gray 82′), Vardy (Iheanacho 84′), Albrighton.

Huddersfield 1-3 Southampton

The Ralph Hasenhüttl revival continued at Southampton in Gameweek 18 as they ran out 3-1 winners against Huddersfield.

Crucially for Fantasy managers, many of those who starred against Arsenal put together some consistency by also performing well at the John Smith’s Stadium.

Danny Ings (£5.6m) added his third goal in two matches, while Nathan Redmond (£5.2m) finally delivered on the promise he has shown for some time by scoring and assisting against Huddersfield. That brings the former Norwich man to two assists and one goal in his last two Premier League outings.

Also interesting was an assist for one of the game’s more popular fifth-midfielders Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (£4.4m). He has been taking up more advanced positions in midfield in recent matches so could be a useful asset to own from Gameweek 20 onwards as benchings and absences are likely to affect our squads. However, he will unavailable for the Gameweek 19 visit of West Ham to the St. Mary’s Stadium as his fifth yellow card of the season, picked up in West Yorkshire, handed him a one-game ban.

Fantasy managers are still waiting to see whether Southampton can offer any defensive potential after they failed to keep at Huddersfield, the lowest scorers in the division. That said, the Terriers went for slightly more firepower up front in this one, differing from the usual 3-5-1-1, deploying Isaac Mbenza (£5.9m) up front alongside Steve Mounié (£5.8m) in a 3-4-1-2.

Huddersfield Town XI (3-4-1-2): Lössl; Kongolo, Schindler, Zanka; Löwe (Durm 45′), Billing, Bacuna (Kachunga 65′), Hadergjonaj; Pritchard; Mounié, Mbenza (Quaner 81′).

Southampton XI (3-4-2-1): McCarthy; Vestergaard, Yoshida, Bednarek; Targett, Højbjerg, Romeu, Valery (Stephens 79′); Armstrong (Lemina 69′), Redmond; Ings (Obafemi 65′).

Manchester City 2-3 Crystal Palace

The most important takeaway from Manchester City’s surprise home defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace is not to panic. Yes, the defending champions lost and their key assets failed to deliver, but they were a little unfortunate across the board.

The Citizens did exceed their expected goals tally but still recorded a higher one than Crystal Palace, one of their efforts an outstanding wonder-strike from Andros Townsend (£5.7m) and the other a second-half penalty converted by Luka Milivojevic (£6.0m).

Given that Crystal Palace came into Gameweek 18 in decent defensive shape, according to the members’ area data, maybe we shouldn’t be too shocked that they were able to resist the Manchester City onslaught after putting themselves 3-1 up. At that point, virtually every single Palace player was stationed inside their six-yard box with the intention of frustrating their illustrious hosts at any cost.

The chief disappointments from a Fantasy perspective were blanks for Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Leroy Sané (£9.7m) and there seem to be good and bad points for both of them. The former had just one shot in the match but was replaced with 20 minutes to go, which would leave him in a fresher state to face Leicester on Boxing Day. Meanwhile, Sané’s was the game’s top shooter, with no fewer than five efforts. He was unlucky not to get any attacking returns. However, a 90-minute outing does potentially put him at a greater risk of rotation, although there does appear to be little in the way of competition for his place.

Sergio Aguero (£11.2m) was unable to affect proceedings as he featured only as a second-half substitute. That should leave him in a condition to start against Leicester though.

Interestingly, John Stones (£5.3m) played in central midfield as he has done on several occasions in cup competitions. It appears this was because Fernandinho (£5.4m) was not considered fully fit for the game.

While Roy Hodgson deviated from his usual 4-4-2 formation to facilitate a 4-5-1, the only change he made from the side that beat Leicester was enforced. Jeffrey Schlupp (£4.4m) came in for Cheikhou Kouyaté (£4.7m). The Palace manager has previously discussed the fact that he has limited options to rotate and that was borne out in the changes he made at the Etihad on Saturday. Hodgson made just two, bringing Jordan Ayew (£5.7m) on for Wilfried Zaha (£6.7m) in the 88th minute and Jason Puncheon (£4.3m) replaced Max Meyer (£5.6m) as late as the 95th.

Manchester City XI (4-3-3): Ederson; Delph (De Bruyne 62′), Laporte, Otamendi (Aguero 50′), Walker; B Silva, Stones, Gündogan; Sané, Jesus, Sterling (Mahrez 69′).

Crystal Palace XI (4-5-1): Guaita; van Aanholt, Sakho, Tomkins, Wan-Bissaka; Meyer (Puncheon 90+5′), Schlupp, Milivojevic, McArthur, Townsend; Zaha (Ayew 88′).

Newcastle 0-0 Fulham

It was no surprise that this match was shown last on Match of the Day at the weekend. Neither Newcastle or Fulham were able to create a single big chance at St. James’ Park, hence how the Cottagers were finally able to record a clean sheet after returning to the Premier League.

Newcastle went with a five-man defence with Matt Ritchie (£5.8m) operating as a left wing-back. Even though this was a game where we expected more from the hosts, their line-up of a 5-4-1 may not be too dissimilar from what we will see when the Magpies travel to face Liverpool on Boxing Day.

This was Ki Sung-yeung‘s (£4.7m) last match for Newcastle before joining up with South Korea for the Asian Cup. There don’t appear to be too many fit central midfield alternatives, so it will interesting to see who starts there at Anfield. In fact, his absence could prove a factor in the captaincy decision in Gameweek 18 as Newcastle will almost certainly have a softer centre without him.

Owners of Aleksandr Mitrovic (£6.7m) can consider themselves very unlucky not to have picked up some points from this match. The Fulham striker had more shots in the box than any other player and could have won his side a penalty in the closing stages for a handball, but nothing was given. If the defender had not illegally blocked his shot it probably would have gone in, and he would have had a crack at a penalty had the referee spotted the infringement.

Newcastle United XI (5-4-1): Dubravka; Ritchie, Dummett, Lascelles, Schär, Manquillo (Yedlin 84′); Pérez, Diamé, Ki, Atsu (Kenedy 72′); Rondón.

Fulham XI (3-4-2-1): Rico; Ream, Mawson, Odoi; Bryan, Seri, Chambers, Christie; Schürrle (Kamara 76′), Cairney (Ayité 82′); Mitrović.

West Ham United 0-2 Watford

There was a real coupon-busting result at the London Stadium on Saturday as Watford emerged surprise 2-0 winners over West Ham. The Hammers had become the Fantasy flavour of the month with Felipe Anderson (£7.4m), Javier ‘Chicharito’ Hernandez (£6.5m) and Robert Snodgrass (£5.4m) all deservedly garnering fresh support for Gameweek 18.

While Watford deserved to get their two goals, scored by Troy Deeney (£5.8m) and a Gerard Deulofeu (£5.4m) playing up front again, the Hammers can feel unfortunate not to have scored. The two sides had very similar expected goals tallies for the match.

Of interest was the fact that Michail Antonio (£6.8m) played up front in a 4-4-2 formation once again, and had more efforts on goal than any other West Ham player against Watford.

It does appear that this match was something of a blip in West Ham’s form as all of their attacking players did well enough to have got some attacking returns. Chicharito had the joint-most shots in the box of any player in the encounter, Snodgrass took a total of three shots and was the match’s top creator, while Anderson fashioned three opportunities and had two efforts on goal.

If West Ham maintain their level of performance against Southampton on December 27, we should see them return to scoring ways.

Fabian Balbuena (£4.5m) was forced off with a knee problem in the first half and is considered a major doubt for Gameweek 19. Also Chicharito is repered to be struggling with a knock ahead of the trip to Southampton.

West Ham United XI (4-4-2): Fabianski; Masuaku, Diop, Balbuena (Ogbonna 34′), Zabaleta; Anderson, Rice, Noble (Carroll 56′), Snodgrass; Chicharito (Diangana 75′), Antonio.

Watford XI (4-4-2): Foster; Holebas, Cathcart, Kabasele, Kiko Femenia; Pereyra, Capoue, Doucouré, Sema (Cleverley 75′); Deeney (Success 86′), Deulofeu (Mariappa 90+1′).

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the 2018/19 campaign are now available for the price of just £15.

Join now to get the following:

• Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
• Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
• Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
• Get access to over 130+ exclusive members articles over the season.
• Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
• Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
• View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
• Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

CLICK HERE TO BECOME A FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBER