Scout Notes

No blank or double FPL Gameweeks for Liverpool after Saints’ cup exit

Southampton bowed out of the FA Cup on Wednesday evening after losing their third-round replay to Derby County on penalties.

From a Fantasy perspective, the result was significant in that it confirmed that Liverpool – as they did in 2017/18 – will avoid a blank or double Gameweek in the season run-in (barring any future weather-related postponements, we hasten to add).

In Gameweeks 27, 31 and 33 (the set of fixtures that clash with the EFL Cup/FA Cup), Liverpool will face Manchester United, Fulham and Southampton away from home.

Liverpool’s trip to Craven Cottage is the solitary fixture that has so far been confirmed as definitely happening in Gameweek 31, while Huddersfield Town v Leicester City and Southampton v Liverpool are the only two Gameweek 33 matches that we can say for certain, at this stage, will avoid a clash with the FA Cup semi-finals.

As if they weren’t already popular Fantasy assets before, the likes of Mohamed Salah (£13.4m), Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) and Andrew Robertson (£6.7m) will surely only become more in-demand as we navigate the blank Gameweeks in the months ahead.

Southampton 2-2 Derby County (3-5 penalties)

  • Goals: Stuart Armstrong (£5.1m), Nathan Redmond (£5.2m)
  • Assists: Shane Long (£4.7m), Jack Stephens (£4.2m)

As well as having implications for the Gameweeks ahead, Southampton’s FA Cup third-round replay defeat to Derby last night may have ramifications for their very next Premier League fixture – and owners of Everton assets.

The Toffees head to the south coast to face Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side on Saturday afternoon, less than 72 hours after the Saints were taken to extra time and penalties by their Championship opposition.

Reflecting on his team’s cup exit, Hasenhuttl said:

What hurts more is that we played 120 minutes on a Wednesday evening and we have to bring a good performance two days’ later against Everton at home.

That will be a challenge to get the players fresh again and for them to recover well. We will have to find fresh players to put in.

The Austrian head coach made only five changes to his starting XI from the side that defeated Leicester City in Gameweek 22, with Alex McCarthy (£4.4m), Jan Bednarek (£3.9m), Matt Targett (£4.2m), Nathan Redmond (£5.2m) and the suspended Yan Valery (£4.0m) dropping out.

Redmond, however, was introduced at half-time and played 75 minutes as Derby forced extra time, while Shane Long (£4.7m) and Stuart Armstrong (£5.1m) were handed 73 and 90-minute run-outs respectively.

Jack Stephens (£4.2m), Jannik Vestergaard (£4.6m), Oriel Romeu (£4.3m) and James Ward-Prowse (£5.0m)were the four first-teamers who started against the Foxes who then played a full two hours on Wednesday evening.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (£4.4m), along with Charlie Austin (£5.5m) and Valery, will return from suspension in Gameweek 23 and it could be that Romeu or Ward-Prowse are handed a breather against Everton given what Hasenhuttl said above about fielding “fresh players”.

Fantasy managers who own the likes of Richarlison (£6.9m), Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.3m) and Lucas Digne (£5.3m)would certainly have been content to see Southampton toiling for 120 minutes just days before their assets visit St. Mary’s.

Hasenhuttl didn’t seem overly downbeat to bow out of the FA Cup, highlighting the extra preparation time it will give his side ahead of future Premier League encounters:

I’m not that frustrated, it’s a pity we gave it [the lead] away two times, but I know that it will be tough until the end of the season.

I think it can be an option that if we aren’t in the FA Cup anymore, then we will prepare for the important games in the league.

You will see this if we prepare in the week with a lot of training sessions, then we will have more chance to be in shape and defend against a good team.

You always hear from managers saying that if they step out of the FA Cup that they can focus on the league. In our situation, it’s very important.

Hasenhuttl can’t be accused of deliberately orchestrating an early exit, of course, and his decision to throw on the influential Redmond at the break underscored his intent to win the tie.

The Saints had lined up in a now-familiar 3-4-2-1 at kick-off, with Kayne Ramsay (£4.0m) joining Vestergaard and Stephens in a back three, and Cedric Soares (£4.2m) and Tyreke Johnson (£4.5m) lining up as wing-backs.

However, Southampton had only registered two shots by half-time – a Stephens header from a corner and a Long sitter that Derby goalkeeper Kelle Roos kept out – and Hasenhuttl shook things up by introducing Redmond for the booked Johnson and switching to a 4-2-3-1.

Redmond was deployed first on the flank and then centrally in a “number ten” role when Hasenhuttl withdrew Armstrong and had a significant impact on the game – superbly chipping the Saints into a 2-0 lead, wasting a glorious opportunity in extra time and then missing the decisive penalty in the shoot-out.

The former Norwich City winger almost carved out a tap-in for Mohamed Elyounoussi (£6.1m) and went on to register the joint-highest number of attempts on goal in the match.

Hasenhuttl said of Redmond’s display:

I was very upset about the chance he missed in overtime because he made the wrong decision. If he chipped it in like he did with the first goal, then it would have been perfect and maybe the winning goal from us.

He showed today that he is a key player for us. When he stepped in the game in the second half, we were the better team. He helps us a lot by creating chances.

The guy who makes the turnaround after the break is the guy who misses the penalty, but that’s football.

1,338 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Was 0.1M short of doing Rich + Kane --> Salah + Jimenez ☹

    Im also without Rashford, so just wondering if I should get Rashford in with Firm and hope Salah doesn’t haul, or take a hit to get in Salah?

    So I guess Kane + Kamara --> Rash + Firm or Kane + Rich --> 6.3FWD/-4 hit + Salah. Current front 8:

    Rich – Haz – Sane – Pogba – Snodgrass
    Kane – Auba – Kamara

    Thanks all, really struggling with this!

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I’d get Salah in with a hit

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Try to shoehorn in both Rashford and Salah?

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Sorry for long winded top post >.

    3. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      What’s the rest of your team? I would take hits to get Salah and rash

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Guaita - Fab
        Robbo - Doh - Keane - AWB - Chambers
        Haz - Sane - Pogba - Rich - Snodgrass
        Auba - Kane - Kamara

        I'm 1.2 short, really tempted to go Haz --> Alli for a hit....

    4. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      How about Richarlison, Kane > Salah, Ings? You could then look to bring in Rashford next week for free.

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Thought about that, but would take me 2 weeks to get Rash that way, and would need a downgrade in midfield to get extra funds.

        Could work if I do Haz + Kamara --> Alli + rash in two weeks?

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Yes that could be an option, dependent on Hazard's performance at the weekend.

  2. Donblaster
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Salah Sane Pogba Anderson ____
    Rashford Wilson ____

    A) Hazard & Deeney
    B) Pereyra & Firmino

    1. Robbo121
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Hazard + Ings or fodder and upgrade F.A

      1. Donblaster
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        cheers, yeh may go Ings, has good fixtures. don't see many upgrades to Anderson though tbh. such a quality player and in no rush to get rid.

    3. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      A.

      I don't get the Firmino love, he's blanked in 4 of his last 5 home games.

      1. avfc82
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I'd actually go Ings over Deeney though.

        1. Donblaster
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          cheers, Ings cheaper so may do that

  3. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    How she looking with wildcard? 😉

    Foster
    VvD Robbo Laporte Digne
    Sane Pogba Alli Salah(c)
    Rashford(VC) Jiménez

    Patricio Ings Camarasa AWB

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      GTG

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      What about losing the keeper rotation for Alisson and Speroni and then dropping VVD down to someone else?

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Since I had to use WC before DGW’s, I do need playing bench for bench boost. Hence players like speroni are no no

    3. Schafsalat
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      While I still have Laporte as well, I'm not sure I'd get him on wildcard. I'd probably get a United or Tottenham defender instead (but I'm not willing to use a FT for it - Laporte is not a terrible pick after all).

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Their next couple fixtures are looking good and City defence becoming a differential. I’ll have a go I think.

        I honestly do think Manu defenders are trap. They could’ve conceded 5 vs Spurs and still looking well shaky.

        I had Lloris until today but needed a better bench hence sacrificed him.

        1. Schafsalat
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Fair enough. No other complaints from my side, looks good :).

    4. RustyBz
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Looks good, but that's a lot of cash tied down in the defence. You'll be scrambling to free funds when you want a premium striker in.

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Yes I’m aware of that. Only way to overcome that is save transfer and take a hit etc

        Can’t have it all

        1. RustyBz
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          In fairness, Kane is the only premium striker who I'd consider a must when he's fit so you got a good 6 weeks there.

          You may find yourself wanting Auba or Aguero soon, but not immediately so I'd be pretty happy with that team - defence should produce good returns too...

          1. La Roja
            • 12 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Cheers, fingers cross and all that

            1. RustyBz
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 3 months ago

              Out of interest, how come you decided to WC early? Was your team in a lot of bother?

              I ended up having to take an 8 point hit and still have TAA.. was debating WC, but think 8pts is just about enough to not do it and save for DGW

              1. La Roja
                • 12 Years
                5 years, 3 months ago

                My team is linked. Ever since I sold Salah GW 16 for -4 before his hatty, I have been having a nightmare.

                Also, I had no Liverpool cover. Players like Kane, Son, Snoddy, Kamara, Cedric...

      2. Mo Mané Mo Problems
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        This. I think this is probably the reason I will go Hazard+Sterling+Salah as you can remove one and Jimenez/Rashford to get a 6-7m mid + Kane/Kun/Auba.

  4. Threat Level Midnight
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    **Bottomed Last page***

    GTG?

    Etheridge
    Robbo-Doherty-Digne
    Salah-Pogba-Martial-Sane
    Auba-Rash-Jimmy

    Bench
    Camarasa-Wan Biss-Taa

    1FT & .6 ITB

    Thinking no need to rush TAA out and save for 2 FT next week?

  5. ZakyJ
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    On my WC:

    A) Nasri, Camarasa & 0.4 ITB
    B) Lamela, McNeil & 0 ITB

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      A

      1. Bumbaclot
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        A

  6. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Trippier nailed now for Prem games after Aurier 'issues'?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      What issues?

        1. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Oh, cheers

        2. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          And yes, should make Trippier more nailed

          1. Pieterke30
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Kyle WP says hi.

            He could start 1/3 or sth

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Well he isn’t in jail so I would’ve thought there will still be rotation

    3. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      KWP lurking, but Trippier should play the majority of games.

  7. niloh1
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Hey guys, here is my following team

    fabianski button
    taa* , luiz, wb, kolasinac, bennett
    sane, salah, richarlison, pogba, hojberg
    kane*, rashford, jimenez

    so I already took a -4 to get salah in. and I hv the exact funds to do kane & taa to auba & vvd which would result in a -12? is this move worth the hit? I'm just worried about the price drops and i might miss out on one of them.

    1. benbro
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Why not go Robbo and downgrade Kane to eg Wilson

    2. Bumbaclot
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Minus 12 hits are almost never worth it

      1. Bumbaclot
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Just do Kane to aubs this week and use your bench

  8. Bumbaclot
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    G2G this week or should I do richarlison to sterling for -4?

    Button
    Vvd/alderweireld/docherty
    Salah/haz/rich/lingard
    Rashford/jiminez/deeney

    Hamer/snoddy/dunk/awb

    Thanks guys

    1. benbro
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Haz to Sané?

      1. Bumbaclot
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I can afford lingard or richarlison to sane so won’t get rid of hazard just yet

        1. benbro
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Richarlison and Lingard both fixtures and form over Haz tho. If you want city cover drop Haz. Especially with potential flux over Chelsea incoming striker being unsettling. If Haz plays 10 behind a new 9 could mean few goals for a couple of weeks.

        2. Carlton P
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Lingz > Sane then easily

    2. Alex_thekid
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I'd be looking at sorting players that don't play or rotation risks first instead of getting rid if nailed on player's eg Snodgrass , Lingard , Button, Hamer - Ryan will be back soon

  9. SirT83
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    G2G?
    Allready done a - 8..

    Digne Shaw Doherty
    Siggy Salah Sane Hazard
    Auba Rash Barnes

    Hamer WB Billing TAA

    0.4 itb

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Gk?

      1. SirT83
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Fabianski. Forgot to put him in there.

  10. Shaji Pappan
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Ddg
    Robertson Vvd Doherty
    Pogba Sane Salah(c) Eriksen Nasri
    Rashford Jimenez

    Sub: Foster Long Awb Bednarek

    Gtg?

    1. Bumbaclot
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Yep

    2. Donblaster
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      nice team, like it

    3. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Guess too much money in defence...would go Alli over Eriksen and boost up forwards with one “heavy hitter” beside Rashford

    4. Alex_thekid
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Them two liv def cost way to much over 13m I'd downgrade one loads if cheap attacking def eg
      Digne Shaw Perreria

    5. Shaji Pappan
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Thank you guys

  11. Zenith UK
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Sorry, repost;
    I started this conversation on a previous thread but got distracted at work (Amey, where are you?).

    AWB > Man U, I'd like to see this as a Summer signing... thoughts?

    @ Hamezmace - this is true but I do also think AWB would be a good fit and could also provide cover especially with Valencia leaving. Would he not also qualify as a home-grown player?

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Hello mate.
      He would qualify as a homegrown player imo

  12. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Hazard to become more of a threat/FPL option with Higuain coming in?

    1. Robbo121
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      We live in hope!

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Chelsea should score more goals w/ Higuain in the 11 so you'd think so.

  13. Valkyrie
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Hi guys.... who is likely to play as Spurs' forward now that Kane injured?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      alli ?

    2. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Llorente but they may play Alli in the most advanced position or bring a player in during the January transfer window.

    3. DF
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      They could punt on troy parrot. According to the mirror

    4. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Hard to say, it could be Lamela with Alli and Eriksen behind, Llorente may feature or possibly Moura if he's fit.

    5. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Alli

    6. Alex_thekid
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Parrot

  14. bitm2007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    If City beat Burnley in the Cup, Leicester and Burnley will join Liverpool in having a game in both big blank GW's 31 and 33, with at least two more teams (Bou/New or Wat/Ful/Sou) guaranteed to join them depending on the Newcastle/Watford cup tie result.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      thanks

  15. CloudSky
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Kiko Casilla from Real Madrid to Leeds.

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      New spy registered there

  16. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    gtg guys ?

    Fab (steele)
    VVD/Luiz/Doherty(Awb/Schindler)
    Salah(c)/Hazard/richa/anderson/pogba
    Rashford/jimenez(kamara)

    1ft 4.2m itb

    am tempted by anderson to sane, seems like a waste to have all that money in the bank

    any advice welcome, thanks

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      one more ? thanks 🙂

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Skipp and Parrott sounds like a 70's comedy double act

  17. Stats Don\'t Lie
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    The case for not captaining Salah

    I bought up this point in a group chat I'm in and if I'm interpreting the system correctly then this may just be the point that convinces me to switch captain.

    For the purpose of this analysis I am looking at the top 10k data as this is the people I'm personally looking to hunt down.

    Now in gw22 Salah had an ownership of about 72% and including captaincy, an effective ownership of 128%, for those that don't know this means that for every point salah gets, the top 10k average increases by 1.28pts. The second most captained player was Hazard who had an eo of 94% therefore just owning him would still give you 0.06 pts up on the average. What's worth noting is that last week Sane had just 19% eo, Sterling had 12%, rashford 47% pogba 60%. This means that just by owning you got 0.4 extra pts for every pt from pogba, 0.53 for rashford and so on. But if you captained these players you'd get an extra 1.4 pts on the average for every point they scored.

    Which is where my case for not captaining Salah comes to fore.
    By simply owning salah you effectively have a 100% ownership of him. If salah is hugely captained as expected his eo may be somewhere around let's say 150-160%, this means that by captaining salah you will only gain about 0.4-0.5 pts on the average for every point he gets. If you were to not captain him you'd be losing 0.5-0.6pts on the average for every point he earns. OK that doesn't sound great.

    HOWEVER, If you were to captain someone like pogba or sane instead, both will have below 100% eo meaning as a captain you gain a pt for each pt they get. What this means is that if salah gets 15pts and you captain sane who only gets 8pts you wouldn't lose any ground in the average. This is because by not capping salah you'd lose about 8pts on that average but captaining sane for 8pts would put those points right back on so you'd keep up with the average. BUT, if sane gets 15pts and salah gets 10, youd lose out on 5-6 pts from salah but gain 15pts from sane giving a total gain of 9-10pts on the average from captaining sane over salah as opposed to the 4-5pts you'd gain from salah captain. This means that to gain from this strategy you simply need your alternative captain to get whatever percentage salah's eo is over a 100% as a percentage of his pts.

    Eg, salah eo = 160%, salah gets 10pts, need 6pts from alternate captain to keep up with average

    Capping salah would still get you 4pts on the average and to get those pts on the average your captain also needs to match salah but your captain outscoring salah would do remarkably for your rank

    Tl;dr If your captain gets half of what salah does, you keep up with over all average, if he matches salah, you get the same amount over the average you'd get captaining Salah, if he out scores salah, however, each one of those pts is an extra point that you'll gain over the average score.

    For those looking to take a risk and climb the ranks, might be worth taking a punt on the captain as upside seems potentially greater than down side. Especially this week where I can see sane/pogba at least matching salah.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      waouh some analysis that is !

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah Im consodering capoing Pogba

    3. benbro
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

    4. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Love this sort of analysis - thanks for the effort putting it together

    5. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Im tempted by Pogba.

      1. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Very good work, deserves to be a Hot Topic

    6. Mysterion
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers. Username checks out 😉

    7. SackWenger
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      A lot of work there.

      With your example of captaining Sane (8pts) and covering Salah's (15pts), you would get 16pts for Sane plus 15pts from Salah so 31pts total. Those who captain Salah get 30pts and still have the other players score to add, so not convinced with your calculations. On top of this the other score is likely to be the vice captain who you would hope will score well. And if indeed it is Sane then they would score 30 + 8 = 38pts meaning your example is 7pts less and doesn't cover those who have captained Salah over Sane.

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Interesting

        What I'm trying to say is more how much of an increase you get on the average.

        Say a 150% eo for salah this week and a 50% eo for sane

        A salah (c) and sane owner would get 0.5pts on the average for every salah pt and 0.5 pts on the average for every sane point

        A sane (c) and salah owner would lose out on 0.5 pts for every salah point but get 1.5 pts for every sane pts

        In the scenario with salah 15pts and sane 8pts all I'm saying is you'd still be in line with top 10k average

        Salah and sane scoring the same would make it irrelevant who you captained, but sane out scoring salah would be a 1pt gain on the average with every sane point rather than the 0.5 point gain on the average with every salah point if you understand?

        1. Pillson
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Ironic now as I feel like your stats used do in fact lie, with you using flawed logic as pointed out by SACKWENGER.

          1. Pillson
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Coming from a non Salah owner, who would 100% captain him this week if I did own him

      2. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Agreed. The whole argument of this Hot Topic is flawed and misleading.

        If Sane scores 8 and Salah scores 15 then Sane (C) + Salah gets you 8*2 + 15 = 31 points, but Salah (C) + Sane gets you 15*2 + 8 = 38.
        So never mind the average or the ownership, captaining Sane instead of Salah loses you 7 points.

        You should always captain the player you expect to score the greater number of points that game-week, except in certain cases where you need to do something different even though it is more likely to fail than to succeed (such as in an attempt to win a head-to-head match which you would otherwise be fairly certain to lose, or to make up ground on a mini-league rival near the end of the season).

        A more interesting case is if Sane scores 8 points one game-week and 15 the next while Salah scores 15 points in the first one and 8 in the second.
        Captaining Sane both times would then get you 31 + 38 = 69 points, while captaining Salah both times would get you 38 + 31 = 69 points.
        If Salah has a higher Effective Ownership then captaining Sane will give you a big red arrow followed by a big green one, whereas captaining Salah gives you a smaller green arrow followed by a smaller red one.
        But in both cases you end up on the same number of points!

    8. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      People making decisions like this based on ownership is exactly what gives casuals like me a competative edge. Thanks PK 🙂

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Just like to provide a different view point on things and play devil's advocate a bit

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          It seems to me you have to decide on the conclusion before you do the analysis so you can justify the bias. This would be a revolutionary way to approach captaincy in general if it was mathematically sound, but instead it's a HT about why we shouldn't captain Salah this week.

          If you don't captiain Salah for the reasons given, then you should not own Salah for the same reasons. If you want differentials simply because they are not highly owned/captained, then there's no reason to think differently for ownership and effective ownership. But in reality, you will likely do less well because players who are likely to score well, score well, not players who are owned by fewer people.

          This is not to mention the fact that the make-up of the top 10k when the gameweek is complete will be different. All your numbers will be meaningless if you are right, because the top 10k will suddenly have more Sane and Sterling owners and captainers in it, which means you shouldn't captain them next week, especially if more people buy him. The whole ownership thing, untill the last couple weeks of the season, seems like a bizarre myth gone awry to me, personally.

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            ...Because as RedArrows often says, your whole team is the differential. You will find a surprisingly few number of teams that are exactly the same as yours. You don't need to try to be more different.

          2. Stats Don\'t Lie
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Ouch but I appreciate the honesty, I'm just bored of all the salah worshipping in this site often feels like people don't allow for any other options, and yes, maybe this is a fair bit of personal bias but I'm just looking for a different approach rather than the logic that salah is the only viable option often portrayed

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 3 months ago

              Haha sorry I didn't mean for it to sound curt. I appreciate the effort. I don't personally own Salah, and got very bored with the Salah love-in pre-season, but I do think it's better to make decisions based on logic.

              1. Deulofail
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 3 months ago

                I think I did it again, sorry. I mean "consistent logic". Since you can equally say use high ownership to justify buying/keeping/captaining a player as well as selling/avoiding/not captain a player, and the same for low ownership. Depends on what you want the conclusion to be.

    9. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I usually follow a simple logic for captaincy.

      Captain a player who you think will score the most, irrespective of ownership.

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        And I’m certainly not claiming it is working out well, especially lately :mrgreen:

      2. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        And you are convinced Salah will outscore Sané and Pogba?

        1. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          If not, he won't captain him 🙂

        2. Pillson
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Convinced is too strong a word for captaincy choice. Only a fool would be 'convinced' that they knew who the best captain pick was. How many captained Rice last week? You go with the player you think will get you the most points, and that's all you can do.

        3. La Roja
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Yes

    10. Rostah
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      This logic only really works over 1 gameweek IMO. Over the course of the season Salah should score more than Sane, or anyone else for that matter. If you happen to go for a differential C on the perfect week then you gain some ground wonderfully. If however you don't, you'll lose a little ground, and if you keep repeating this your bound to lose more & more ground. I think this strategy can be very effective as a hail mary later in the season to gain ground on a ML leader, but other than that go with whoever you think is the best C week by week, which happens to be Salah most weeks.

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I'm not saying this for every week, if salah has a far better fixture than anyone obviously go for him but in a week where there are other options, like city vs Huddersfield it's not the worst idea. Especially as I think people underestimate the Palace defence at times, palace 3rd lowest shots on target allowed last 4

        1. Rostah
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          I hear ya, I just think there will be too many weeks where its a toss up between Salah and another premium in our squads.

          At a quick glance this would be my upcoming C debates. All weeks where the alternatives to Salah have a chance at outscoring him. I have full confidence over the 3 listed GWs Salah will score more than the alternatives. I'm sure if I was to look at fixtures beyond 4 weeks time there would be numerous other opportunities for a differential C also. The more weeks where there are multiple choices the more likely the scales will tip in Salahs favour. Personally I'm not gonna try play roulette as to which weeks Salah will score more than the alternatives and just go with what I view as the best choice.

          This week Salah (CRY) vs Sane/Sterling (hud) vs Pogba(BHA),
          next week Salah (BUR) vs Sane/Sterling (new) vs Pogba(BUR),
          4 weeks time Salah (BOU) vs Pogba(ful)

          1. Rostah
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Typo, Salah (LEI) next week

    11. Basil1977
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I got lost the moment you said "the case for not captaining Salah"

    12. Ancelottery
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I didn't understand 70%, but appreciate the effort.

      I still want to go Salah 😀

    13. abaalan
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I get the theory and it has kind of worked for me (but would rather have the points):

      Since GW 16, I've owned Salah and not captained him once. Cost me 50 points if i had captained every week...and I would be rank 39 overall now.

      Face palm.

      I am tempted to go Sterling (c) this week after being on Salah all week..

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I think it's a good option

    14. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      for example in u say salah eo is 160% but that is for overall top 10k.Could be 190 % in for example 4k to 6k bracket and 120% in 7k to 9k and 170% in top 1k so it depends on which rank u are too tho to climb up.Hypothetically lets take salah eo is 160% in top 10k and u are 7k but u want to climb up but eo of him is 190% in 4 to 6k and if ur other captain fails u could be further behind the pack tho

      1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        not that simple just taking overall eo is what i meant .Each grp of ranks can have differnet eos and in some grps salah captain could be around 110% and be a differential in itself

      2. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah, it's not a rule applicable to all but as someone languishing at around 150k there's even more of a case to not captain him as his eo is even lower and less damaging at higher ranks

    15. FeverPitch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Interesting stuff, thanks. I guess (and this is probably obvious) the alternative way to view it is if you captain Salah, and unless any other player hits over 100% eo (unlikely), then you've played it so that every point you get from your 11 gains you ground and you don't have to hope for a blank from anyone you own

      1. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Absolutely hate cheering against one of my players - worst part of FPL when it happens.

        1. FeverPitch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Completely agree

    16. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Last seasons top scoring FPL player and this seasons current top scoring FPL player has Crystal Palace at home. A team who before they played Wolves had shipped 8 goals in 3 away games which included matches against West Ham and Brighton. I'm always Interested to see how others play the game, but I don't think this is a week for overthinking things.

    17. chaser123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      At the end of the day, captaining the person who gets most points is your best option (no matter how large ownership is).

      Salah is nailed, is consistent and is the highest points scorer for the second year running. He also has a good fixture this week.

      Therefore, ignore the EO data and choose the player who is likely to get the highest score (aka Salah).

    18. Sensible Scouter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      An interesting take - for me the key part of your analysis is "For those looking to take a risk and climb the ranks".

      You're absolutely right - there's probably more risk in going with a different option from the crowd (unless you definitely know something they don't). However, the analysis is flawed, in that you don't take into account the alternative player. As an example 60% EO for Pogba doesn't mean that you get 0.4 points more than average for every point Pogba gets, because the 40% who don't own Pogba own someone else who is also getting points. You only get more than average if the avearge points for the Pogba alternative is less than the Pogba points. (Imagine it's a simple alternative between Pogba and Martial - 60% own Pogba and 40% own martial. Imagine they both get 6 points in a gameweek. It doesn't matter which you own, you got the average points).

      Looking at Ownership is worthwhile if you want to be taking risks to climb, but just be aware that they are risks - there is an upside, but there's also probably a bigger downside. They say past performance is no guarantee of future success, but at this point in the season it's not a bad guide, and ownership will be governed by who has most points so far. There are definitely more low ownership players who won't get you points than those who will, so good luck picking the right ones!

      1. Chewibb
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Totally agree with para 2 of this.

        Another way to look at it is that in the scenario the Top 10K will have averaged 24.5 from 2 players whereas the Sane captainer & Salah owner will have 31 points from 3 players (counting captains as 2) .

    19. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      very informative and a change from the always c salah nonsense

    20. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks for all the effort but the numbers don’t work and therefore this will be leading people into making a bad decision.

      The simple maths are if you own Salah (15 points) and Sane (8 points) and Captain Sane you are 7 points down regardless of how many people own/captain him or don’t.

      No need for all this depth. It’s simplified in that if your captain outscores Salah you will get more points for the GW. If he doesn’t you will get less. Gaining more points increases rank, less doesn’t. It doesn’t matter where they come from.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Exactly, it's very easy to understand for most.

  18. Robson-Canoe
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Complete my WC team with 14.0 itb:
    Patricio (Speroni)
    Robertson Digne Shaw (AWB Bednarek)
    Salah Hazard Pogba Sané ____
    Rashford Jimenez ____
    A) Eriksen/Alli and fodder
    B) Firmino and fodder
    C) Mané and fodder
    D) Rich and Ings/Wilson (one of which will always be benched)
    E) Anything else?

    1. Could Have Ben Mee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Alli + fodder

      1. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Or this indeed

    3. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Ings, Nasri and VVD instead of Shaw ?

  19. bryant
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Felipe/rich->alli worth a hit?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      not for me

    2. Teomi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      no - do itt week after

    3. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Felipe will do well this week. I'd hold personally and see how Spurs play without Kane/Son.

  20. Bumbaclot
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone think lingard to pogba for a -4 is worth it?

    1. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

  21. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Afternoon lads, is this worth a hit?

    Son/Ings > Sane/Firmino

    Cheers all

    1. Bumbaclot
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I’d say so

    2. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I'd be tempted to keep Ings - lovely fixtures (if he actually stays fit).
      But yes - you would be stronger for those moves.

    3. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Easily

    4. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah

  22. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Button
    Digne Robbo Doherty
    Hazard Richarlison Salah Anderson Camarasa*
    Rashford Jimenez
    (Guaita* - TAA* - Kane* - AWB)
    Obviously I've been amazingly unfortunate/stupid to have this team this week. No ft left, 0.2itb.

    Where, if anywhere, should I hit?
    A. Eat humble pie. Kane to Auba (who I sold on Saturday)
    B. Kane to Ings (then get another big hitter in midfield next week)
    C. TAA to Shaw
    D. Other move(s) or even wildcard.
    E. Save and hope.

  23. Teomi
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    not for a hit - do it next week

    1. Teomi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      sorry - should be answer to THFC4LIFE

  24. Millie7
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Already made transfer this week, but really want to get salah in for -4 but for who i'm not sure

    Current front 8
    Hazard - Sane - Pogba - Anderson - Masuaku
    Jimmy - Rashford - Barnes

    worth doing or upgrade one of the front 3 instead?

    1. Millie7
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      forgot to say 7.4ITB

  25. Will
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    A: Hazard & Jiminez
    or
    B: Firmino & Richarlison

  26. columbo
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Anderson to Pogba for -4? Would take my total hits to -8, but I always try to look at each one in isolation.

    Thanks!

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      definitely not for me

      1. Millie7
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        no

        1. columbo
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          thanks lads, next week then probably!

  27. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Any advise for this team going forward (not for this week)?

    Fabianski
    Digne Doherty Shaw (TAA AWB)
    Sterling Hazard Salah Pererya Pogba
    Jimenez Rashford (Kamara)

    3.9 ITB

    Considering: Ali (in for Pereya), Robertson (TAA), Lloris (Fabianski), Firmino (Jimenez - could downgrade TAA to Bednarak and Kamara to Firmino)

    Thoughts?

  28. aarrgghh
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    If gw 27 blankers go to semis in FA cup and CL,when could their DGW be if not GW 25

    1. Basil1977
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      maybe an extra game at the end of the season?

  29. Could Have Ben Mee
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Any advice on what to do with this lot..

    Ederson
    Shaw, Digne, Bennet (Kolasinac, AWB)
    Rich, Salah, Anderson, Pogba (Westwood)
    Rashford, Aguero, Auba

    1Ft £0 itb