Spot the Differential

Alli a premium FPL differential with some appealing fixtures ahead

With yet another Gameweek upon us, we’ve taken to championing the cases of three overlooked Fantasy Premier League assets in our regular Friday feature.

All of these differentials have an FPL ownership of between 2% and 4% and there is a rare place for a premium FPL player among our selections.

Gerard Deulofeu (£5.5m)

FPL ownership: 2.4%

Watford were the focus of our Digest article earlier this week, with Javi Gracia’s side being the form team outside of the “big six” over the last half-dozen Gameweeks.

The Hornets are one of only three Premier League clubs to have scored in every match in the last eight Gameweeks and rank fifth for goals scored (15) during that time, only sitting below Liverpool, Spurs and both Manchester clubs.

Burnley visit Vicarage Road this weekend and although the Clarets have shown signs of more defensive resilience of late, they remain the second-worst team in the division for big chances, shots on target and goals conceded in 2018/19.

No side has allowed more efforts from inside their own box, meanwhile.

Watford, indeed, put three goals past Sean Dyche’s troops in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Gerard Deulofeu returned to the Watford starting XI in Gameweek 17 and has been an ever-present ever since, with only Eden Hazard and Mohamed Salah having bettered the former Barcelona midfielder for “big chances” among players in their position in that time.

No player with an FPL ownership of under 5% has created more big chances over the last six Gameweeks than Deulofeu, who ranks second for expected goal involvement (xGI) among fellow “differentials” over this period.

His advanced, “out-of-position” role is yet another string to his bow from a Fantasy perspective – and, of course, the chief reason why his underlying attacking statistics are so impressive.

Sol Bamba (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 2.8%

Cardiff City may be the whipping boys of the Champions League-chasing clubs (played seven, lost seven, conceded 25) but the Bluebirds have more than held their own against sides outside of the “big six”.

In 15 league games against clubs currently in seventh position or below, Cardiff have conceded only 16 goals and kept six clean sheets.

One of those shut-outs was against Newcastle United, who Neil Warnock’s side face on Saturday and who have scored the second-fewest number of Premier League goals (16) this season.

As well as clean sheet potential, Sol Bamba offers the prospect of attacking returns at the other end of the pitch.

Sean Morrison, who has a higher xGI than all other FPL defenders this campaign, looks like he will miss out this weekend but Bamba has done something his fellow centre-back hasn’t managed so far in 2018/19: find the back of the net.

Bamba’s own xG is indeed second only to Morrison’s this season among players in their position.

Only four defenders have had more attempts on goal from inside the opposition area than Bamba in 2018/19.

The Bluebirds this weekend come up against a Newcastle side who have conceded more chances from dead-ball situations than any other Premier League outfit, suggesting the towering centre-half could profit at St James’ Park.

Dele Alli (£8.9m)

FPL ownership: 3.3%

With Harry Kane injured, Son Heung-min on international duty and Lucas Moura struggling with a knee problem, Spurs’ goalscoring burden could fall on Dele Alli for the time being.

The former MK Dons prospect has plundered plenty of goals when Kane has previously been absent (credit to FPL Awesom-o for the research) and while he may not be leading the line for Spurs against Fulham, as such, the onus will be on Alli to support whoever is toiling as the spearhead of the Lilywhites’ attack.

This selection is less based on underlying stats than on the fixtures in Gameweek 23 and beyond: Spurs follow up their trip to Craven Cottage with a triple-header at Wembley – though many Fantasy managers will be concerned about a possible blank in Gameweek 27 should Mauricio Pochettino’s side progress to the EFL Cup final.

Alli’s attacking KPIs haven’t been outstanding recently and he has only had one big chance of his own over the last six Gameweeks, not creating a single clear-cut opportunity for a team-mate either.

His second-half performance against Manchester United caught the eye, however, and he looked more of a goal threat in a 4-2-3-1 – the system Pochettino might well switch to given a lack of options up top – than he had in a 4-4-2 diamond: no midfielder had more shots in the box than Alli in Gameweek 22, while his penalty box touch count was beaten only by Raheem Sterling among players in his position.

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804 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Alli's form has been terrible for the last year or so

    1. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      That’s why he’s a differential, he’ll come good at some point and tends to step up in Kane’s absence.

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Ah, "due", like your thinking Gregor 🙂

  2. Gamer18
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Going into Week 2 of Last Man Standing who should I pick? Comment below
    Already picked:
    Burnley

    1. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      So you can’t play FPL or Last Man Standing on your own. Ffs.....

      1. Gamer18
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Only asking for others opinions

  3. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Diop > Trippier - 4? Yes or no ?

    Def is VVD Shaw TAA Diop Peltier

  4. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Should I start TAA over Digne if there is a chance he might play?

    Patricio
    Robbo - Digne - Trippier
    Salah (C) - Haz - Sane - Martial - Deu
    Rashford - Jimenez

    Fabs - Ings - AWB - TAA*

    1. ceejay106
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I am.

  5. Make Arrows Green Again
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    I dared to log off for a couple of hours... What's this about TAA? He miraculously fit to play or something?

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Not miraculous 😀 Touch and go, I think.

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Miraculous in the sense that he was ruled out until 24th February and now he's touch and go for the weekend...

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          That's pretty miraculous TBH given the skills of club doctors these days. Can't remember ever seeing a prognosis change so dramatically in three days.

        2. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Source?

          1. Ten Season Wonder
            • 10 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Official FPL. If I could send you a screen grab from my phone i would.

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Hmmm that's not my definition of ruled out, but each to their own 😉

              I understand that frustration with the red flag, but there was nothing official to my knowledge.

              1. Ten Season Wonder
                • 10 Years
                5 years, 2 months ago

                Yeh true. Although SSN reported this,

                https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11669/11608017/liverpools-trent-alexander-arnold-faces-two-weeks-out-with-knee-injury

                2 weeks out and FPL suggesting he was out until 24th Feb.

                That's a big difference. And I asked on here if anyone could shed any light about why the dates didn't match up... No skin off of my nose, I still own the guy.

                1. Deulofail
                  • 8 Years
                  5 years, 2 months ago

                  Yeah I believe FPL went red due to these reports, and they probably have a policiy about accepting non-official sources if there's more than one of them reporting the same thing (assuming it's not c&p), but Idon't know. Still, we knew that FPL weren't acting on official news, because he have google.

      2. Ancelottery
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Source?

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          “Gini and Trent we will decide by day, it's not cool,” said the Reds boss.
          https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-boss-jurgen-klopp-makes-15697928

          1. Ancelottery
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Thanks

    2. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      It seems as though his injury isn't as bad as everyone thought.

    3. Make Arrows Green Again
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks chaps. Somewhat irritating for me actually for ML purposes.

      Decent for my wildcard in a couple of weeks though 🙂

    4. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Do we know the original source of his injury when it was announced earlier in the week?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Some local Liverpool paper

        1. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Paul Joyce and James Pearce, who are usually first to know LFC stuff (along with Melissa Reddy).

          So it was as good as an official line gets from our club without it appearing on the actual website.

          1. dbeck
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers, interesting. I was going to transfer him out tonight for Shaw for free but guess I’ll keep. Just have an awful bench

          2. Burger
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            It was as good as complete twaddle, seriously these people are a joke.

      2. Ten Season Wonder
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        i have a screen grab on my phone from 2 days ago. Any idea how I can get it on here?

  6. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Are these transfers worth doing??

    Kane/ Puncheon/ Richarlison >>> 5.0 / Alli/ Sane

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Dele & Sane are great options this weekend

    2. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Puncheon? Are you f*cking serious

      1. Gommy
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Of course he is? Signed for Huddersfield on 4th Jan till the end of the season?

  7. CAPTAIN_WALES
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    So then:

    A) Arnie to Kun
    B) Arnie & Rich to Firmino & Sane (-4)

    1. pmos
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

  8. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Is klopp for real!?

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      what's he done now?

    2. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      What's happened??

    3. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Ruling taa back in contention for this week after the reports of two to four weeks out.

    4. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      See my post from yesterday......Am I the only one questioning TAA injury....he played 90 mins looked unhindered yet he is due to miss a month ?? He also has a track record of returning from injury weeks earlier than stated

  9. RyanC
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Bit of a defensive benching headache this week.

    Which three to start from these?

    A. Robertson
    B. Alonso
    C. Holebas
    D. Doherty
    E. Digne

    Thank you.

    1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      How good can your forward seven be!?

      1. RyanC
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Salah Pogba FAnderson Pereyra
        Agüero Jimenez Rashford

        1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Very nice. I think the order in which I would play them is:
          A, d, e, c, b

    2. pmos
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A, B, C

      1. RyanC
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks.

    3. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      That is bench boost potential

      1. RyanC
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I'm leaning towards holding Bench Boost til we have a DGW but thanks for the suggestion, I'll have a think about it.

        1. Ancelottery
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Bench boost. The fixtures for a bench wont look this good.

          Its not like you'll have 15 players all playing twice.

          *Boost* *Boost* *Boost*

          1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            I wouldn’t boost. The boost lets you get in crap players for double games and lets you play the good ones who only have a single. I’d save.

    4. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      adc

    5. Jealous Viper
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      This is some conundrum. If you have two playing gks bench boost imo. If not Robertson, Doherty and Digne but such a close call

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        * and 5th mid

  10. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Currently on a -4
    Fab button
    digne TAA Bennett kolasinac AWB
    Hazard Salah Pogba richarlison hojberg
    Jimenez Kane rashford
    0.3 itb
    After the Trent news
    Kane to aubameyang (-4)? Or hold?

    1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I think minus four is the no hit of this week, but I would just wait a week, you have an acceptable 442. If auba had a good game maybe, but since he doesn’t, no.

  11. pmos
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Bench one :
    1. Deulofeu (BUR)
    2. Richarlison (sou)
    3. Jimenez (LEI)

    1. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Hard one, B or C IMO!

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      None of them

      1. pmos
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        So one of: Salah, Hazard, Martial, Rash, Aguero ahah

        1. La Roja
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          None of them

    3. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      1

  12. HAMMERTIME107
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    How's does this look please?? Cost me -4 this week but saves me using the wildcard!

    Etheridge
    Digne | Targett | Pereira
    Sane | Richarlison | Salah | Pogba
    Rashford | Aubameyang | Jimenez/Chicharito*

    Speroni | Dunk | Wan-Bissaka | Billing

  13. The Train Driver
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Pellegrini said earlier that Arnie is fine, his absence surely then means he is getting sold or maybe picked up a new injury in training?

    1. Make Arrows Green Again
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      The former is most likely, the latter is most like him.

    2. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Not in the right frame of mind seemingly.

    3. RossoneriHammer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Reports are he refused to travel

  14. twaid
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    A) Haz B) Salah (-4)
    1. Play Brooks 2. Play D. Luiz

  15. built_this_city
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    my team -

    Fabianski
    Doherty, Digne, Robertson
    Salah, Anderson, Hazard, Pogba, Richarlison
    Jiminez, Aubameyang
    Subs - 4.0m gk, Success, AWB, Diop

    2 frees, no cash in the bank.
    Any suggestions? Im struggling

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Let it go. You don't have to make transfers.

      1. HAMMERTIME107
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Downgrade Richarlison to a cheapie bench player and get Rashford to start!

    2. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Diop to benderek imo. Not need for a double West Ham defence

  16. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Which one on WC??

    A) Trippier + Alisson
    B) TAA + Lloris + 1.4

    Don't need money atm. Maybe later!

    1. La vida FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A for sure

      1. Emiliano Sala
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Why so sure?
        Because TAA will not start this week?

        1. La vida FPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          TAA doubt and Tripper has assist point potential.

    2. pmos
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

    3. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

  17. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Managers are so afraid of telling it straight on team news. It is getting progressively worse. Time for a NFL style injury list IMO.

    1. Make Arrows Green Again
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      How does that work? Surely the info still comes from team doctors?

      1. Pierce34
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I think it's similar to the NBA, where players are listed as 'inactive' and are not suited up, or 'doubtful', which could be either.

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          So teams have to confirm a certain while in advance who is available to play, just not who is likely to start?

          1. Pierce34
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Yes. Though I'm not sure when the starting line-ups are out, or when the fantasy deadlines are. Of course in basketball it's different as there are rolling subs, so you can still not start and play most of the game.

    2. MTPockets
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Don't think it's getting worse. Just that lack of news is progressively being plugged by make-believe for clicks

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I think this is a reasonable theory

      • diesel001
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Link below sets it out fairly well. But fundamentally, for each practice (training) session and the day before the game you have to notify the status of each player and their participation percentage for the next game.

        https://operations.nfl.com/updates/football-ops/2017-nfl-injury-report-policy/

    3. La vida FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No city or spurs means that I will not have anyone playing on Sunday.... makes me uncomfortable... anyone else in the same boat?

      1. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Possibly. Depends what I do with Hazard. If I keep I will have 0 City / Spurs. But you can't have them all.....

      2. Ten Season Wonder
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Sane owner. But want Dele.

        IS there no way you can't get either in?

      3. La vida FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Would have to move on Hazard for a -4

    4. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Have a look at the WC played by the guy coming second in the world. An absolute shocker!

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        what's wrong with it?

      2. Goat
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        TAA, Arnautovic and Guita. Unlucky is what I mean

        1. SADIO SANÉ
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          he can hold Guaita and TAA like I will, Arnie -> Jimenez is pretty simple

    5. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Regardless of whether TAA might play or not this weekend, he is still due to fall in price tonight.

      How does everyone feel about this? I, myself am thinking about keeping hold of him regardless of the drop

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        You'd sell him to save 0.1m at this stage in the season. Really?

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Read again brother!

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Sorry - long day!

    6. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Scoutpicks are out:
      Foster
      Robertson Digne Doherty
      Salah Richarlison Sane Alli Pogba
      Rashford Jimenez

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        7/11

        Redarrows incoming...

        1. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          8/11...

          *gulp

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            May the lord have mercy on your season... 🙂

      2. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        6, gogo firmino

      3. Dybala10
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        9/11

        RIP me.

    7. NestorC
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Which one is better for next couple weeks

      A) Auba and Rich
      B) Jimenez and Sterling

      Cheers

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        b

      2. AuFeld
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        A for me.

    8. SOTHPAW
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      which one to bench this week?
      A, Ings
      or
      B, Brooks

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        a

    9. BinManJack
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Two questions
      Hazard or sterling? (already have Sane)
      Captain Salah/ Sterling (if picked ahead of Hazard)/ Sane?

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        haz, salah

    10. Traction Engine Foot
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Start Jonny or Bednarek?

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Jonny

      2. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        jonny

        1. Traction Engine Foot
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks

      3. DV8R
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Jonny

      4. Gregor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Jonny.

    11. Pino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A or B?

      A) Eriksen Alli Deeney

      B) Camarasa Alli Firmino

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        b, eriksen will play deep

      2. Gregor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        B.

      3. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        b

    12. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Which one?
      A)Sane+Firmino
      B)Aguero+Pogba

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        tough one

      2. Gregor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Firmino and Pogba?

        1. wulfrunian
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks.I can do it.

    13. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Fab
      Shaw Doherty Alonso
      Salah(C) Hazard Pogba (V) Lingard
      Firmino Jimenez Mitro
      Hamer AWB Höjberg TAA
      3.5 itb. No ft
      A) TAA to Robertson -4
      B) Lingard to someone-4
      C) Survive this week with not hit, TAA out next week.

    14. Daghe Munegu
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone please ?

      Diop > Trippier - 4? Yes or no ?

      Def is VVD Shaw TAA Diop Peltier

    15. OPTA FPL
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      So TAA could be out only 1 week or not, why did FPL announce he is out til 24 Feb without any good source? That made TAA from rising to falling

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        if you kept him just be happy, a lot will have taken a hit to take him out

        1. OPTA FPL
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I decided to keep him even he is out 4 weeks