Spot the Differential

Alli a premium FPL differential with some appealing fixtures ahead

With yet another Gameweek upon us, we’ve taken to championing the cases of three overlooked Fantasy Premier League assets in our regular Friday feature.

All of these differentials have an FPL ownership of between 2% and 4% and there is a rare place for a premium FPL player among our selections.

Gerard Deulofeu (£5.5m)

FPL ownership: 2.4%

Watford were the focus of our Digest article earlier this week, with Javi Gracia’s side being the form team outside of the “big six” over the last half-dozen Gameweeks.

The Hornets are one of only three Premier League clubs to have scored in every match in the last eight Gameweeks and rank fifth for goals scored (15) during that time, only sitting below Liverpool, Spurs and both Manchester clubs.

Burnley visit Vicarage Road this weekend and although the Clarets have shown signs of more defensive resilience of late, they remain the second-worst team in the division for big chances, shots on target and goals conceded in 2018/19.

No side has allowed more efforts from inside their own box, meanwhile.

Watford, indeed, put three goals past Sean Dyche’s troops in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Gerard Deulofeu returned to the Watford starting XI in Gameweek 17 and has been an ever-present ever since, with only Eden Hazard and Mohamed Salah having bettered the former Barcelona midfielder for “big chances” among players in their position in that time.

No player with an FPL ownership of under 5% has created more big chances over the last six Gameweeks than Deulofeu, who ranks second for expected goal involvement (xGI) among fellow “differentials” over this period.

His advanced, “out-of-position” role is yet another string to his bow from a Fantasy perspective – and, of course, the chief reason why his underlying attacking statistics are so impressive.

Sol Bamba (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 2.8%

Cardiff City may be the whipping boys of the Champions League-chasing clubs (played seven, lost seven, conceded 25) but the Bluebirds have more than held their own against sides outside of the “big six”.

In 15 league games against clubs currently in seventh position or below, Cardiff have conceded only 16 goals and kept six clean sheets.

One of those shut-outs was against Newcastle United, who Neil Warnock’s side face on Saturday and who have scored the second-fewest number of Premier League goals (16) this season.

As well as clean sheet potential, Sol Bamba offers the prospect of attacking returns at the other end of the pitch.

Sean Morrison, who has a higher xGI than all other FPL defenders this campaign, looks like he will miss out this weekend but Bamba has done something his fellow centre-back hasn’t managed so far in 2018/19: find the back of the net.

Bamba’s own xG is indeed second only to Morrison’s this season among players in their position.

Only four defenders have had more attempts on goal from inside the opposition area than Bamba in 2018/19.

The Bluebirds this weekend come up against a Newcastle side who have conceded more chances from dead-ball situations than any other Premier League outfit, suggesting the towering centre-half could profit at St James’ Park.

Dele Alli (£8.9m)

FPL ownership: 3.3%

With Harry Kane injured, Son Heung-min on international duty and Lucas Moura struggling with a knee problem, Spurs’ goalscoring burden could fall on Dele Alli for the time being.

The former MK Dons prospect has plundered plenty of goals when Kane has previously been absent (credit to FPL Awesom-o for the research) and while he may not be leading the line for Spurs against Fulham, as such, the onus will be on Alli to support whoever is toiling as the spearhead of the Lilywhites’ attack.

This selection is less based on underlying stats than on the fixtures in Gameweek 23 and beyond: Spurs follow up their trip to Craven Cottage with a triple-header at Wembley – though many Fantasy managers will be concerned about a possible blank in Gameweek 27 should Mauricio Pochettino’s side progress to the EFL Cup final.

Alli’s attacking KPIs haven’t been outstanding recently and he has only had one big chance of his own over the last six Gameweeks, not creating a single clear-cut opportunity for a team-mate either.

His second-half performance against Manchester United caught the eye, however, and he looked more of a goal threat in a 4-2-3-1 – the system Pochettino might well switch to given a lack of options up top – than he had in a 4-4-2 diamond: no midfielder had more shots in the box than Alli in Gameweek 22, while his penalty box touch count was beaten only by Raheem Sterling among players in his position.

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804 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Lignja
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Gtg?

    Fabianski
    Digne, Doherty, Taa
    Salah, Sane, Pogba, Richarlison
    Auba, Firmino, Rashford

    Hamer, Kiko, Camarasa, Wb

    1. Our Tiny Windows
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      TAA injured

      1. Jebiga
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        LOL

  2. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Please help needed here, because i already took -8 hit (mini wc) :/

    1. Kane to LLorente -12 hit, next gw kamara to auba for free
    2. Kane to Firmino -12 hit, next gw richarlison to sane, mane, kdb, etc... for free

    fabianski, button
    taa, digne, jonny, wan bissaka, bednarek
    salah, hazard, pogba, bernardo silva, richarlison
    rashford, kane, kamara

    thanks for any suggestion 🙂

    1. Lignja
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Huge hits with Kane still in team...but if more hits maybe better 2 than 1, dont like Llorente

      1. Jebiga
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        thanks mate. This is the part of the season that i must do something. Who risks wins 🙂

    2. FPLord
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Auba this week and save next! Kamara can stay as bench fodder

  3. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Speroni
    Robertson Doherty TAA
    Fanderson Salah Pogba Rich Hazard
    Rashford Jimenez
    (Guaita* Digne Kamara AWB)

    1FT & 5.5ITB

    a) Jimenez > Auba
    b) Guaita > DDG
    c) Rich > Sterling
    d) Save FT

  4. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    After next gw who do you prefer short term?

    A) Alli- WAT NEW LEI

    B) Sane- new ARS CHE.

    Leaning towards A. points will be shared amongst city mids while Alli will probably be involved in high percentage of spurs goals .

    Not to forget sane is rotation risk especially in big games. (infact he has started only 2 times in these fuxtures. -ars liv tot MU CHE and getting hooked off at 50 mins in LIV at etihad. Alli is nailed as it gets

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Keep in mind that City have a blank soon (GW 27).

  5. FF Dirtbag
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Just found out about TAA, do we think its a case of he starts or doesn't play at all?

    Following on from that would you play him over Doherty (LEI)?

  6. Richd
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    CRIKEY!

    Robbo rising meant I couldn’t afford to sell TAA by 0.1. Then I decided to hold.

    Now the news looks great.

    Very unlucky for those that sold. Amazing he avoided the drop.

    Are people starting him in FPL expecting him to miss out ?

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      To add to this. I’m very confused about what has occurred and found it strange he managed 90 mins after the injury.

      It said “up to 4 weeks” but surely was expecting 3 as a minimum?!

    2. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Im starting

      1. Richd
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I might start over Jiminez I guess. Who’s your first bench ?

        1. Jebiga
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Bednarek

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      he'll possibly/probably drop tonight - I'm not sure whether to start yet

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm not sure how to interpret Klopp's comments, tbh. I'd hazard a guess that Saturday comes too soon, and he'll be back next gameweek.

      1. Richd
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Which is just insane tbh. I’m happy with next week.. was so close to the -8 and would have been too stubborn to get him back.

        A lucky break

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          He was a driving factor for me wildcarding having got him in for a -4, so I'm not exactly loving social media at the moment lol.

          1. Richd
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Well all sources pointed to it almost being fact and fpl had him flagged for a month. It caused the price rises to go mental combined with Kane.

            Most people at my work transferred him out for Shaw !

            1. Twisted Saltergater
              • 14 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Out of the frying pan and into the fire, with Shaw's injury record !

    5. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I think he will play tbh with the injuries unless it's a huge risk

    6. L S P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      starting with digne first on the bench methinks...

      digne or jimi

  7. MartialMatas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Good to go?

    Fabianski
    Robertson VVD Digne
    Salah(c) Hazard Pogba Richarlison
    Kun Rashford Jimenez

    Guaita Bennett Puncheon AWB

    0ft 0.3itb

  8. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    So Arnie not in the West Ham squad?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46924979

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      *Crying face*

      That's going to be another forced transfer next GW.

  9. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    People selling Hazard, who’ll might be played centrally again. Maby falling.

    And TAA, based on rumours but nothing from the club, maby falling too. Madness

    1. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I don't want Hazard to play centrally tbh

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Me neither. But dont wanna rid Hazard either

    2. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Hazard owner and I don't want him playing false 9. Hardly touches the ball.

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Against ARS def this week

  10. Bumbaclot
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed 🙂

    Wildcard or not to wildcard do we think guys?

    Button/hamer
    Vvd/alder/docherty/awb/dunk
    Salah/hazard/rich/lingard/snoddy
    Rash/jiminez/deeney

    Any advice welcome. 0FT left

    1. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Wc

    2. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      save wc for DGW's

    3. L S P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      you're fine

  11. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    RMT has Son out for three weeks, but there's a chance it's only one or two. I'd expect to see a small number for GW25 and an even tinier one for GW24. Just saying.

    TAA is also apparently going to score 0 for the next 3 GWs despite no official news from Liverpool that he's out 😉

    Needs updating 🙂

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      It seemed cool when it came out and there’s not a better way of doing it that I can think of.

      But it’s not that useful. Sometimes for close bench calls only imo !

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I use it to double check my ideas, like "Am I right to think Doherty is worth of a VC this week?" and to check if my hits could realistically pay me back in X amount of weeks, or if I'm being crazy.

    2. AK ⭐
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      TAA news just came out a couple hours back. Jeez, give these guys a rest.

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        This ^^

      2. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Huh? Guys? I'm just a guy. Calm down. I'm only joshing, but on the other hand, there was never any TAA news to rule him out for 3 weeks, so it's fun to point that out, especially as I was mentioning another RMT error (as I see it) anyway 🙂 no harm to you or anyone indended

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Oh I misread what you said. Give them a rest. Well Son news has been out for a month or the whole season, I'm not sure

          1. Geoff
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Son is expected back Feb 10 so I've got him out for 3 more GWs. I'd prefer to be on the longer side than the shorter side, but that'll change with more info.

            This is predictive remember - the best news we had before was that TAA would be out for a while. No one was saying he had a shot for this GW, us included.

            RMT is updated now 🙂

            1. Deulofail
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              I respect that, Geoff. I was merely poking fun, but also raising the point that it's really a mystery how RMT works for us members. I'm aware much of it is manual, but we don't know what decisions are made nor why.

              Presumably there's a protocol of some description for what injury information is plugged in (maybe not). I assume you don't just take the flags from FPL as Gospel (since I think they actually use FFS to help them with the flags in the first place?). But then 3 GWs is a bit of a random figure given the info we had imo. I actually presumed it would be based only on official news from the club, and that the model would show increase values as the player was more likely to get into the squad after injury (e.g. I think it did this with KDB), and the same for Son (albeit this itself would probably be based on pretty random numbers - and must be in certain cirmcumstances already).

              I'm just saying it doesn't seem consistent, and it doesn't help that it's an opaque system. Some members may like to know, for example, how many points does RMT think Son would get IF he were available for a game which he actually might be available for, but RMT says he will 100% get 0pts, and that's the only way to interpret it.

              I don't mean to cause a fuss. It's not the huge-esy issue in the world. I'm just giving some feedback that it would be nice in general to have a greater understanding of how RMT works, and even get some more functionality out of it, because it's got a lot of potential, but the hidden manual elements basically mean I can't trust it, because I don't know what's happening underneath.

              That's just my opinion on it 🙂 Take it or leave it, as I'm ony one guy! I appreciate that it takes time and effort to update things like this. Just interested in how the updates take place and what they actually are, since that info is important to me if I want to use a tool.

              1. Deulofail
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 2 months ago

                (Son will only miss 3 GWs if Korea make it to the final, if I'm not mistaken. So it would be possible to get some odds to figure out a rough likelihood that he features in GW25 or 24, but of course that is extra work)

  12. NeverLucky
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Need some final advise/input for my WC this week.

    Scenario 1:
    Doherty/Van Dijk/Digne/Wan Bissaka/Rice
    Sterling/Hazard/Richarlison/Pogba/Salah
    Rashford/Jimenez + 5.1m striker option.

    Scenario 2:
    Doherty/Van Dijk/Digne/Wan Bissaka/Rice
    Sterling/Hazard/Hojbjerg/Pogba/Salah
    Rashford/Jimenez + Lacazette

    Here Richarlison dropped completely, allows me to play Sterling but keep Auber as an option for next GW direct switch.

    1. Millie7
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      2

  13. andrewe63
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    The whole world saw what happened to Trent – what a boy, unbelievable. We played the game and afterwards we got the information that he had [an injury].

    “Nothing happened during the game, it was all stable and good. It was just what happened before the game; adrenaline is obviously an interesting thing, it gives you the opportunity to do a bit more than you would expect. We will see.

    “For both (Wijnaldum), it will be really, really close for tomorrow. I don’t want to close any doors before anybody tells me I have to.”
    ---

    Hope Trent starts although it has to be doubtful yet being close is better than we first thought for FPL purposes???

    Saves transferring him out or spending on a Liverpool upgrade.

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      The way I read that makes it sound unlikely he will play. It almost sounds like Klopp wants to keep palace guessing.. but he will be fit very shortly after.

      Good news. Unexpected.

      1. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Exactly that

  14. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Sorry to ask again, bottomed
    Do you think trippier is a safe option with aurier being fit again and 2 chelsea cup matches coming ?

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Nope.

      There is also Kyle WP

  15. joeydelucchi
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Who is buying Deeney?! ...hes almost rising!?!?

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Some in my private league had him for his 15-pt haul. Ridiculous.

  16. Millie7
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Foster
    Robertson Digne Holebas Doherty
    Hazard Salah Sane Pogba
    Jimmy Rashford

    Barnes AWB Masuaku Guaita

    GTG?

  17. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you bench out of Deulofeu, Doherty and Mitrovic?

    1. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Mit

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Mitro

    3. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I’d bench doherty but most will say Mitro I’d suspect

    4. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Mitro easy

    5. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah - Mitrovic

  18. quayle99
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Ederson
    DLuiz Doherty Robertson
    Richarlison Salah Hazard Torreira
    Rashford Aubamayang Jiminez

    Fabi, Hojberg, Bennett, WanB.

    2 FT

    A. Hazard, Richarlison > Sane, Pogba
    B. Torreira, Auba > Pogba, King (leaves funds for options next week too)
    C. Save
    D. Other?

  19. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Play Jimenez (LEI) or do TAA to Robbo for a hit?

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Play TAA. Have Jiminez first sub.

      Exactly what I’m doing.

  20. PastaFasul
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    I can punt on either Nasri or Lamela for a punt...who do you think will be better moving forward.

    1. PastaFasul
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Rest of mid is Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Sane

  21. JasonG123
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Which move?
    (A) Snodgrass to Alli (-4)
    (B) No hit, play TAA (CRY) or if he doesn't play, then will get Snodgrass (bou)

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm 100 in this boat.

    2. PastaFasul
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'd go A...many hits this week and you should profit

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      How likely do you think it is that Snodgrass plays? I'd probably take the hit as it sounds like your team needs an extra FT down the line

    4. Dybala10
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I did A and delighted to no longer see that mug Snodgrass in my team.

  22. FF Dirtbag
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Which one to bench?

    A) TAA (CRY)
    B) Doherty (LEI)
    C) Jimenez (LEI)
    D) Wilson (WHU)

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      That’s a tough one.

      I’d lean Jiminez. Otherwise Wilson.

    2. PastaFasul
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Wilson

  23. Ten Season Wonder
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Which one wins?

    A. Snodgrass + AWB + 8 points
    B. Dele + Firmino + zero points

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      B, or = with better prospects going fwd

    2. Dybala10
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      B

  24. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Any other wildcarder getting Kdb?

    1. joeydelucchi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      i did, he looked great when he came on on monday

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I would defo hesitate between him and Sané.

      1. L S P
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        i'd defo rather have sane at the moment.

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      If I could generate 0.3m, I'd be tempted to get him instead of Sané.

  25. joeydelucchi
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    if you wanted the best possible back 4 and were to play 4-4-2 and money was no option...which one would you drop from these and why?

    a - Digne
    b - Doherty
    c - Taa
    d - Rob
    e - Trip

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      C for obvious reasons lol

      1. joeydelucchi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        hes back next week...then what?. and considering that i want double pool defence.

  26. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Assuming TAA starts, got to leave out one of Doherty or Digne. Think both Wolves & Everton will concede but it's hard to work out who has higher chance of attacking returns. Flip a coin I guess.

    1. Red Spider
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      i flipped a coin, it rolled off into a drain and i can't find it. i have no other coins, what to do?

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Find something else to flip, its your only option.

    2. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Check out my logic on the last page.

      On top of that, RMT much prefers Doherty iirc, if that matters to you

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers I just read back. When I ran player comparison it seemed like Digne had done better. Looks like I need to revisit it ! Good luck.

    3. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Exactly the same thoughts mate Im leaning towards Digne over Doherty so very close tho

  27. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    My Wildcarded team. Please give suggestions
    Fabianski
    Robertson Trippier Shaw
    Salah Sane Alli Pogba
    Firminio rashford Jiminez

    Button - AwB-Bennet-Camarasa

    0.3 itb

  28. gilean
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    TAA to Robbo or save transfer? Have Bednarek as first sub now if TAA doesn't play.

    1. L S P
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      save

  29. Pabster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Sane, Pogba or Alli?

    Rashford is the only member of any of those three teams I have.

  30. reedj008
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Thinking of getting either Alli or Sane in for one of Richarlison, Pereyra or Anderson but not sure who? Anderson looked good against Arsenal, Watford have been playing well and Everton face a very tired Southampton team this weekend. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.