Alli a premium FPL differential with some appealing fixtures ahead

With yet another Gameweek upon us, we’ve taken to championing the cases of three overlooked Fantasy Premier League assets in our regular Friday feature.

All of these differentials have an FPL ownership of between 2% and 4% and there is a rare place for a premium FPL player among our selections.

Gerard Deulofeu (£5.5m)

FPL ownership: 2.4%

Watford were the focus of our Digest article earlier this week, with Javi Gracia’s side being the form team outside of the “big six” over the last half-dozen Gameweeks.

The Hornets are one of only three Premier League clubs to have scored in every match in the last eight Gameweeks and rank fifth for goals scored (15) during that time, only sitting below Liverpool, Spurs and both Manchester clubs.

Burnley visit Vicarage Road this weekend and although the Clarets have shown signs of more defensive resilience of late, they remain the second-worst team in the division for big chances, shots on target and goals conceded in 2018/19.

No side has allowed more efforts from inside their own box, meanwhile.

Watford, indeed, put three goals past Sean Dyche’s troops in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Gerard Deulofeu returned to the Watford starting XI in Gameweek 17 and has been an ever-present ever since, with only Eden Hazard and Mohamed Salah having bettered the former Barcelona midfielder for “big chances” among players in their position in that time.

No player with an FPL ownership of under 5% has created more big chances over the last six Gameweeks than Deulofeu, who ranks second for expected goal involvement (xGI) among fellow “differentials” over this period.

His advanced, “out-of-position” role is yet another string to his bow from a Fantasy perspective – and, of course, the chief reason why his underlying attacking statistics are so impressive.

Sol Bamba (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 2.8%

Cardiff City may be the whipping boys of the Champions League-chasing clubs (played seven, lost seven, conceded 25) but the Bluebirds have more than held their own against sides outside of the “big six”.

In 15 league games against clubs currently in seventh position or below, Cardiff have conceded only 16 goals and kept six clean sheets.

One of those shut-outs was against Newcastle United, who Neil Warnock’s side face on Saturday and who have scored the second-fewest number of Premier League goals (16) this season.

As well as clean sheet potential, Sol Bamba offers the prospect of attacking returns at the other end of the pitch.

Sean Morrison, who has a higher xGI than all other FPL defenders this campaign, looks like he will miss out this weekend but Bamba has done something his fellow centre-back hasn’t managed so far in 2018/19: find the back of the net.

Bamba’s own xG is indeed second only to Morrison’s this season among players in their position.

Only four defenders have had more attempts on goal from inside the opposition area than Bamba in 2018/19.

The Bluebirds this weekend come up against a Newcastle side who have conceded more chances from dead-ball situations than any other Premier League outfit, suggesting the towering centre-half could profit at St James’ Park.

Dele Alli (£8.9m)

FPL ownership: 3.3%

With Harry Kane injured, Son Heung-min on international duty and Lucas Moura struggling with a knee problem, Spurs’ goalscoring burden could fall on Dele Alli for the time being.

The former MK Dons prospect has plundered plenty of goals when Kane has previously been absent (credit to FPL Awesom-o for the research) and while he may not be leading the line for Spurs against Fulham, as such, the onus will be on Alli to support whoever is toiling as the spearhead of the Lilywhites’ attack.

This selection is less based on underlying stats than on the fixtures in Gameweek 23 and beyond: Spurs follow up their trip to Craven Cottage with a triple-header at Wembley – though many Fantasy managers will be concerned about a possible blank in Gameweek 27 should Mauricio Pochettino’s side progress to the EFL Cup final.

Alli’s attacking KPIs haven’t been outstanding recently and he has only had one big chance of his own over the last six Gameweeks, not creating a single clear-cut opportunity for a team-mate either.

His second-half performance against Manchester United caught the eye, however, and he looked more of a goal threat in a 4-2-3-1 – the system Pochettino might well switch to given a lack of options up top – than he had in a 4-4-2 diamond: no midfielder had more shots in the box than Alli in Gameweek 22, while his penalty box touch count was beaten only by Raheem Sterling among players in his position.

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