Which Man City options will start both Double Gameweek 25 matches – an update

Fantasy Premier League managers face the tough decision of how many Manchester City options to sign for Double Gameweek 25.

Pep Guardiola’s men will be playing Arsenal (home) and Everton (away) over the next few days, presenting an opportunity for decent points-hauls for some of their options.

However, with the team selection tough to predict over two matches, and Chelsea looming large afterwards in Gameweek 26, pinpointing players likely to start both Gameweek 25 matches is looking tricky.

Earlier this week we assessed this subject ahead of Manchester City’s Gameweek 24 trip to Newcastle.

With that now out of the way, we have updated our research on Guardiola’s selection policy.

We have used the same two case study periods from the 2018/19 campaign when Manchester City had midweek fixtures to play or a particularly busy Premier League schedule, and added in extra information from their Gameweek 24 exploits.

Case Study 1: Gameweeks 14-16

The first one runs from Gameweeks 14 to 16, which covered a seven day period. On Saturday December 1, Bournemouth came to the Etihad Stadium, on Tuesday December 4, City travelled to face Watford before going to Stamford Bridge the following Saturday.

This particular period is a great example to analyse as it bears a lot of similarity with the run of games coming up for Manchester City. It started with a home match, just as City have at the beginning of Gameweek 25, that preceded a midweek away trip that led into a crucial Premier League encounter with Chelsea.

• Gameweek 14: Bournemouth (H) 3-1 W

• Gameweek 15: Watford (A) 1-2 W

• Gameweek 16: Chelsea (A) 2-0 L

Case Study 2: Gameweeks 17-21

The second case study period collects all the Christmas and New Year matches to see which players were used the most often with matches coming thick and fast, on average every two to three days.

This ran from Saturday December 15 to Sunday January 3.

• Gameweek 17: Everton (H) 3-1 W
• Gameweek 18: Crystal Palace (H) 2-3 L
• Gameweek 19: Leicester City (A) 2-1 L
• Gameweek 20: Southampton (A) 1-3 W
• Gameweek 21: Liverpool (H) 2-1 W

Defence

Ederson (£5.6m) remains the only player with a cast-iron place in Manchester City’s starting line-up for every Gameweek. Looking at the data from the two selected periods, the goalkeeper was the only one to start every match and also play every minute.

Aymeric Laporte (£5.9m) is also a regular feature in the side, starting all but one Premier League match at centre-back. It is fair to say that the Frenchman is the most likely defender to start both matches in Double Gameweek 25, but we can’t trust Guardiola completely.

Yes, Laporte played virtually every minute of the hectic Christmas period, but his only benching of the campaign came the last time Manchester City had a normal midweek fixture between two Saturday Gameweeks – the Gameweek 15 trip to Watford. With this away match at Everton on February 6 representing similar circumstances, there is definitely a chance that Laporte could be benched again, especially with the key clash to Chelsea so soon afterwards.

However, whether we think either him or Ederson for Double Gameweek 25 will have the potential to deliver points is another point worth considering. Yes, they represent the most likely starters in both matches, but clean sheets have hardly been regular occurrences for them this season. After keeping eight in the first 13 Gameweeks, Guardiola’s men went eight league matches in a row without one.

Between Gameweeks 14 to 21, Manchester City were third only to Liverpool and Chelsea for shots allowed in the penalty box (44), but conceded more than those two sides put together in that period. A large number of their opponents in this run were scoring with their first attempt on target, showing that City struggled to keep teams out even on the rare occasions when they were attacked.

While there were back-to-back clean sheets in Gameweeks 22 and 23, the Manchester City defence was back to its less impressive side at St James’ Park. They came into Gameweek 24 having allowed the fewest penalty box goal attempts over the previous four matches and still conceded twice to a typically goal-shy Newcastle side. The Magpies mustered just three efforts in the whole game and came away with two goals and three points. Rafa Benitez’s men became the latest in a long line of teams to score with their first attack against Manchester City.

Crucially for their defensive assets in Double Gameweek 25, Arsenal and Everton might prove sterner tests for Ederson and company. The Gunners especially creative in the last four Gameweeks, no side fashioning more, so it seems likely that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m) and his colleagues could find some joy at the Etihad Stadium.Meanwhile, Marco Silva’s Everton are just two penalty box efforts shy of City’s total since Gameweek 21.

Therefore, going in for even just one City defensive asset may not yield too much of a return even over two matches. Moving for one of them when they face Chelsea in Gameweek 26 and have no fixture in Gameweek 27 seems especially short-term.

Midfield

Analysing Manchester City’s two most recent busy periods, it is clear that the most likely midfielder to start both of their Double Gameweek fixtures is Bernardo Silva (£7.6m). The Portuguese international was on the teamsheet for every match between Gameweeks 14 and 21, covering the first midweek Gameweek of the campaign and the Christmas period.

It is worth pointing out that his long spells in the side did come while Kevin de Bruyne (£9.7m) and David Silva (£8.5m) were struggling with injuries, but he has still been a key player for Guardiola this season.

There have only been three Gameweeks this season where Bernardo has not started, one of which, the 4-0 win at West Ham in Gameweek 13, was enforced through injury. The other two were the Gameweek 4 win over Newcastle and the 3-0 win at Huddersfield last time out.

Coincidentally that trip to the London Stadium was the one before the Gameweeks 14 to 16 case study analysed above, suggesting that having the previous weekend off helped Bernardo start three of the Premier League matches in the space of seven days.

Having played just 18 minutes at the John Smith’s Stadium in Gameweek 23, before missing out on the League Cup semi-final second leg, and playing 25 minutes at St James’ Park, he looks likely to play a healthy chunk of Manchester City’s next three important league games.

Fernandinho (£5.3m) looks to be in a similar situation, starting and completing every match between Gameweeks 14 and 16, while only missing out on two matches between Gameweeks 17 and 21 through injury. Only Ederson and Laporte have managed more Premier League minutes than the Brazilian this season out of City options.

However, whether either Bernardo or Fernandinho represents solid investment outside of their security of starts is another matter. The Brazilian holding midfielder has offered very little potential for Fantasy returns this season, despite being a key member of the Manchester City team and is unlikely to provide much as a Double Gameweek player too.

Bernardo Silva looks a little more promising, but there is clearly a reason why he costs less than some of the big hitters. Only two of his colleagues have better minutes per chance created in the last four Gameweeks, which is certainly encouraging. However, eight Manchester City players have recorded better minutes per shot in that time, a number that includes Fernandinho.

Sané and Sterling are obviously the two midfield options that might prove the most popular for Double Gameweek 25, but it goes without saying that each of them is much less guaranteed of a start than Bernardo or Fernandinho.

Sterling feels less secure than his German colleague given what happened from Gameweeks 14 to 16 and the Christmas period. The England international was benched for the midweek Gameweek 15 fixture used instead for the win over Bournemouth and the crunch trip to Chelsea several days after Watford. Furthermore, Sterling featured only as a substitute in the 3-1 win over Everton in Gameweek 17, admittedly scoring, before having his minutes managed in Gameweek 18.

Meanwhile, Sané missed out on only one starting line-up in our two case studies, the Gameweek 20 win at Southampton. Obviously, that was a run of matches when he had little competition for his place given Benjamin Mendy‘s (£6.1m) injury, although the Frenchman appears to have recently had a further relapse in his comeback. If we hear that Mendy remains a doubt in Guardiola’s next press conference then that probably increases Sané’s chances of starting both Double Gameweek 25 matches.

He and Sterling do stand a decent chance of being heavily involved in the Double Gameweek, even if their minutes are managed with Chelsea in mind. Neither of them registered any minutes in Manchester City’s most recent League Cup and FA Cup ties. That means their outing at Newcastle was their first competitive one since the win at Huddersfield eight days previously, a pretty healthy rest period ahead of a busy schedule. By contrast, Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) played 180 minutes in both cup matches.

For this reason, it does look as if Sané and Sterling are probably the best City options and as long as an exit strategy can be formulated for Blank Gameweek 27 a double-up on the pair could prove effective. The German is probably the better one to consider with his minutes managed against Newcastle, and the fact that he has largely outscored his English colleague in matches they have both played 60 minutes or more. There have been 12 Gameweeks that fit such a description this season, Sané the higher scoring in six of them, Sterling in three.

Also worth considering is David Silva (£8.5m), who recorded an assist against Newcastle. He was the subject of our most recent Spot the Differential article, so head over there for more detail. In the last four Gameweeks, he has averaged a shot on goal more frequently than Sterling and a chance created more often than Sané. That said, his full 90-minute outing at Newcastle might reduce his chances of two starts in Gameweek 25.

The only other midfield option perhaps worth looking to is Kevin de Bruyne (£9.7m) considering his role as a key regular starter last season. However, things aren’t so clear with the Belgian this year after his struggles with injury. That meant De Bruyne was absent for our first case study period and featured just three times between Gameweeks 17 and 21 as he took a knock against Leicester. Furthermore, he has started just two of the last four Premier League matches, and was involved from the start in both recent cup encounters. Just 64 minutes at Newcastle could be in his favour of starting both games, but given how Guardiola has managed his minutes since injury, it seems likely he could miss out on the Everton game to be included against Chelsea.

As for De Bruyne’s Fantasy credentials, he has been steadily improving. He is top for minutes per chance created among City options over the last four Gameweeks, although seven of his colleagues have shot more frequently in that time.

Forwards

Working out which one of Sergio Aguero (£11.3m) and Gabriel Jesus (£10.1m) will start Manchester City games is as difficult now as it has ever been.

The first case study period was during Aguero’s groin injury, which is why he did not feature between Gameweeks 14 and 16.

However, Jesus was not exactly first choice for all three of those matches, all within a space of seven days. The Brazilian was benched for the Gameweek 16 trip to Chelsea, with Sterling utilised as a false-nine in his place, although this did not prove especially effective as City lost 2-0.

In the second period, after Aguero had returned, there were two starts for Jesus and three for the Argentinian.

Since then, the pair have largely alternated with Jesus starting Gameweek 22, being benched for Gameweek 23 and the League Cup trip to Burton before starting against Burnley.

Meanwhile, Aguero was benched against Wolves, started against Huddersfield and Burton before featuring for 15 minutes as a substitute against Burnley and then playing the entire game at Newcastle.

This rotation between the two makes it very difficult to call which of them will start each Premier League match across Gameweeks 25 and 26.

Aguero could be favoured for the crucial match against Chelsea, which might see him benched for Everton after having started at home to Arsenal. However, he could just as easily be benched against the Gunners and started at Goodison Park.

Either way, it does seem very unlikely that either one of Jesus or Aguero will start both matches in Double Gameweek 25, making signing one of them beforehand a questionable move.

That will be frustrating for those of us who have noticed Aguero’s impressive goal threat statistics over the last four Gameweeks. No Manchester City player has had more shots, despite his 284 minutes in that timeframe.