The case for De Bruyne as a Double Gameweek 25 differential

This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5%.

We turn our attention to Double Gameweek 25 for our first pick and cast the net a bit further for our other two selections, who are both starting to look more like the players that shone in 2017/18.

Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

We highlighted David Silva‘s (£8.5m) appeal in the pre-Gameweek 24 edition of this series and the Spaniard, who provided the assist for Sergio Aguero‘s (£11.3m) early goal on Tuesday evening, is another obvious differential candidate ahead of the imminent Double Gameweek.

In the interests of variety, though, we will instead take to championing the case of another Manchester City midfield star: Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m).

Plenty of discussion in the Fantasy community this week has centred around the credentials of Leroy Sane (£9.7m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.3m) for this double-header against Arsenal and Everton, with a particular focus on how many minutes each winger will be handed given that City also face Chelsea a week on Sunday.

The same uncertainty is true of the reigning champions’ central midfield, with De Bruyne, David Silva, Bernardo Silva (£7.6m), Fernandinho (£5.3m) and, to perhaps a lesser extent, Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4m) likely to see game-time in Double Gameweek 25.

De Bruyne said himself recently that he doesn’t expect to play every game but the Belgian playmaker is a known favourite of Guardiola’s and made more Premier League appearances in 2017/18 (37 – all but one of them starts) than any of his team-mates.

De Bruyne has started all of City’s four most-recent matches in all competitions and, while he may make way for Bernardo in one of his side’s two fixtures in Double Gameweek 25, the Belgian is still capable of doing damage off the bench: De Bruyne delivered attacking returns as a substitute in Gameweeks 18 and 22.

Over the last two Gameweeks (De Bruyne having returned to the City starting XI in Gameweek 23) only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the Belgian.

One attempt on goal over those two fixtures isn’t particularly encouraging but then that is the same number of shots that Sterling has registered in the period studied.

De Bruyne delivered attacking returns against both Arsenal and Everton in 2017/18 and those two clubs haven’t convinced from a defensive perspective this season: only Fulham have recorded fewer clean sheets than the Gunners (four) in 2018/19, while Marco Silva’s have registered just two shut-outs in their last 11 Premier League games.

Ben Mee (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 1.7%

Overpriced and out of form at the start of the season, Burnley’s defenders were something of a no-go zone for the first half of 2018/19.

Over the last month or so, however, the Clarets have been quietly going about their business in more impressive fashion and are currently on a five-match unbeaten run.

Sean Dyche’s side were 2-0 up at Old Trafford on Tuesday with three minutes of normal time to go and but for a soft penalty they conceded to allow Manchester United a lifeline, they might well have taken all three points.

Tom Heaton‘s (£4.8m) return to the side seems to have instilled a greater confidence in the defenders in front of him, with the Clarets banking two clean sheets and sitting in the top half of the table for fewest big chances conceded over the last five Gameweeks.

No Premier League club has conceded fewer goals than Burnley in that time.

Burnley sit second in our Season Ticker for defence over the next five Gameweeks, with Southampton the visitors to Turf Moor on Saturday.

The Saints have registered fewer shots on goal than any other top-flight side over the last six Gameweeks.

Ben Mee‘s (£4.6m) ownership is at the lowest it has been all season and his price has fallen £0.4m since Gameweek 1, making him an all-the-more enticing option for the weeks ahead.

Burnley also have matches in the Blank Gameweeks of 27, 31 and 33.

While Mee is yet to find the net in 2018/19, only four FPL defenders have registered more shots in the box than the Burnley centre-back over the last six Gameweeks.

Mee has also recorded more penalty box touches than any of his fellow Burnley defenders this season.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

While we considered an Everton player for this Gameweek 25 piece, the players who qualify as a “differential” (i.e. an FPL ownership below 5%) such as Bernard (£5.9m), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.3m) and Ademola Lookman (£5.1m) are far from secure in Marco Silva’s starting XI and of course face Manchester City in one of their two fixtures.

We have instead taken to highlight the appeal of a Fantasy favourite of 2017/18, a budget midfielder who is just starting to show signs that he is getting back to somewhere near his best.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m) has one goal and two assists in the last four Gameweeks and over that time only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the German.

Gross indeed sits joint-sixth among players in his position for key passes since returning from injury in Gameweek 13.

Despite playing in a slightly more withdrawn role as part of a central midfield three, Gross has still managed more shots in the box than winger Solly March (£5.0m) and all other Brighton players listed as a midfielder over the last 12 Gameweeks.

Gross is heavily involved in taking Brighton’s corners and free-kicks and this weekend the Seagulls face a Watford side who have conceded more attempts from set plays and headed chances than any other Premier League side over the last four Gameweeks – a positive omen for Gross’s assist potential from dead-ball situations.

Looking beyond this weekend, Brighton sit top of our Season Ticker for the next eight Gameweeks – though of course blank in Gameweek 27.