Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials for Gameweek 29 and the blanks ahead

This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

2,163 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Just Son to Hazard or Son > Sterling > Hazard, which probably would involve a hit somewhere (Vardy in for 31)?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Son to Hazard

      1. Shatner's Bassoon
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Chances of him being one of the few switches Sarri hinted at though?

        I can see:
        Zappacosta for Azpi
        Loftus-Cheek for Jorginho [Kante moves back]
        The classic Barkley for Kovacic

        then maybe a change in front three... CHO to come in?

        1. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Hard to predict but Emerson could come in for Alonso if Barkley is on

          1. Shatner's Bassoon
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Yeah... I'm just hovering over Sane to Hazard but can't quite confirm yet!

            Might wait until tomorrow's news comes out at 10.30 and make a drunk decision.

  2. TwiggsJameson
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    A W B ! Thankyou

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      2 points incoming

  3. Ten Season Wonder
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    This is my team.
    There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    It is my life.
    I must master it as I must master my life.
    Without me, my team is useless.
    Without my team, I am useless.

    [1ft + 2.5m itb]

    Guaita
    Trent - Doherty - AWB
    Salah - Pogba(vc) - Sonny - F.Anderson
    (K)un - Rashy - Jiminez
    ---
    Button; Kola, Digne, MGW

    *question is, should I bank transfer or use to ditch Sonny for Haz/Mane

    Cheers all

    1. CliveTilds
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Would lose Aguero, he’s starting on the bench this week.

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Sauce?

      2. Juhlers
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Famous last words

      3. George Sillett
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Did Pep tell you this himself ?

      4. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Jesus/Aguero is 50/50 IMHO.

  4. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Happy with my team but unhappy that I don’t have a Captain I’m comfortable with... would you do Son+Kun >> Arnautovic+Hazard(C) for a -4?
    Or Kun >> Higuain(C)?

    Fabianski
    Doherty • Schar • Digne
    Salah • Mané • Son • Almirón • FAnderson
    Aguero • Vardy
    (Button / Kolasinac / Bednarek / Kamara)

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Just because Jesus is back in squad doesnt mean hes starting.

      Kun could easily score a brace and Son can return too... and you want to get rid of both for a hit!!!!

      Madness

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        True. But I don’t feel great about them personally

    2. Atimis
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Not considering Sterling?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Would be another option. Kind of building for 31 with FH32 then WC and bench boost

  5. Hargo
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Ederson Boruc
    Robertson Luiz Shaw Lejeune Digne
    Salah Pogba Son Jota Camarasa
    Aguero Rashford Jimenez

    2FT 0ITB

    Ederson to Fabianski? Other suggestions?

  6. DR0GBA
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    RMWCT

    Ederson - Boruc
    TAA - AWB - Luiz - Robbo - Bennett
    Mane - Hazard - Pogba - Sterling - Hayden
    Vardy - Rashford - Barnes

    for GWs30/31 I'll take out Pogba for Maddison and take out Rashford for Higuain and FH32

    1. Eytexi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      You went for the WC i see, been tampering with mine all day. Reckon there are better options than AWB right now and personally dislike Barnes. Otherwise very nice.

      1. DR0GBA
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        yeah 😛

        which players would you rather have than AWB and Barnes?

        King is a good option but wouldn't want him this week, also don't really like having Hayden but he allows me to have all the other players

        1. Eytexi
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Depends on money. I like Clyne @ 4.4m for the blanks. Maybe Clyne in for AWB allowing you to downgrade another BGW defender (Luiz) to fund improvements on Hayden & Barnes? Just suggestions.

          1. DR0GBA
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            I can fit in Brooks for Hayden and sell AWB for anyone up to 4.8m, means i'll have to keep Barnes though

            1. Eytexi
              • 5 Years
              5 years, 1 month ago

              Sounds better to me, your wildcard though haha. I've also gone Jonny over Bennett due to suspension tightrope.

    2. Carefree Crew
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      With Sakho out, Palace clean sheet potential is lower. I sold AWB.
      Man U have DGW I have same dilemma on Rashford & Pogba. With price increases v selling price can't get them back in if did & would waste transfers. Thinking I'll keep & bench for blank. Bennett is on 9 yellow cards FYI.

      1. DR0GBA
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        thanks, all of this is good information to know

  7. CliveTilds
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Auba > Higuain or hold?
    Already have Vardy, slight concern Higuain starts on the bench.

  8. Mini Mahouse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    How likely is Aguero to start?

    1. CliveTilds
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      0%

    2. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Well its a matter of opinion but id say jesus probably starts. Pep said that Aguero looked exhausted after the midweek game and they need jesus back

    3. dannyboy25
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      aguero starts HT in 60 mins then gets his rest on the bench

  9. captainjilflex
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Arnie or Barnes up front for next 5 game weeks??

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Barnes, nailed, pens, great stats and not injury proned

      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        thanks. yeah think your right. id be taking a hit so dont wanna risk arnie being benched

    2. timmmuh
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Arnie the better player, but has more competition for playing time (Chicharito/Carroll/etc.)

    3. pjomara
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Arnie too injury prone for my liking

    4. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      RMT says Arnie. It's not close.

      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        The RMT can be very misleading though. doesnt factor in everything

        1. jtreble
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          True, I find it also has a Salah bias at the moment. Overall though it’s worked very well for me.

          1. captainjilflex
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 29 days ago

            it is a good guide and very useful for spotting weaknesses and bench headaches. Just need to implement a bit if common sense alongside it sometimes.

    5. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I bought Arnie 2 weeks ago. Disaster. He is a little girl.

      1. captainjilflex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Yeah i did say never again after he let me down with injuries earlier in the season. thanks for reminding me. Players like him and Ings are good players but made of paper lol

      2. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Christina, I have a feeling Arnie is going to work out well for you. NEW, car and HUD is not too shabby. 18 points in RMT.

  10. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Fab
    Pereira, Doherty, TAA
    Salah, Son, Pogba, Rich, Anderson
    Auba, Vardy

    Button, AWB, Kola, Kamara

    1FT and £0.3m ITB. Planning towards GW31, will FH in 32.

    a) Auba > Higuaín
    b) Son & Auba > Hazard and Forward up to £9.3 (Bobby/Arnie/Rondon/Barnes) -4

    Cheers

  11. Kroos Kontrol
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    2 FTs, building to a FH32, WC 34. Who'd you take out in this lot? I'm on Son, but I don't have anything iTB and not sure who to downgrade to? Pedro risk.

    Fabianski (Hamer)
    Ricardo Robbo Jonny (Digne AWB)
    Salah Mane Pogba Son (Camarasa)
    Rashford Jimenez Aguero

    1. CliveTilds
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Aguero + Son > Higuain/Vardy + Hazard

  12. YouReds
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    1) Pat > Boruc
    2) Save FT, Play no GK as Boruc plays City and re-asses next week (would prefer Fabs but 0 itb)

  13. It's his Job.
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    G2g?

    Fabs
    Schar Robbo Doberty
    Salah Pogba(C) Son Almiron
    Auba Rashford Jiminez

    Subs-Button/Kolasonic/Anderson/Digne

  14. JELLYFISH
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Ooh Tarkowski looks an interesting replacement option for AWB. Watchlist done

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      GL. I've owned him for the last 3 weeks.

  15. Johan Queef
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Some options with my 2FT with GW31 in mind...

    A) Auba & Sane -> Barnes/Arnie & Sterling

    B) Auba & Sane & Son -> Barnes/Arnie & Sterling & Hazard (-4)

    Thanks!

    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Definitely do A with Barnes imo (Arnie too injury prone), Son > Haz not worth the hit this week imo.

      1. Johan Queef
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Thanks mate, that's what I had settled on but got distracted by a load of Hazard chat and briefly forgot how much he has trolled me in the past

  16. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Anderson to Jota?

    1. mrmrscott
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      No way

    2. Jekori
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Think the only player you can ditch Anderson for is another GW31/33 player. I'd wait at least another gw then get one of the likes of fraser/almiron/barnes.

  17. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Higuain safe to play? What do we think?

    1. mrmrscott
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I would say very likely to start

  18. mrmrscott
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    son to sterling for -4?

  19. FPL AXE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Ronaldo7.net has now stopped sharing links to live stream pages for premier League games. Anybody know of a good website that gathers links for games?

    1. Jekori
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      the common name for organised exercise (...365.live)

    2. LosBlancos
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      What, why?

      1. FPL AXE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        It just states "we are no longer allowed to post the links"

    3. pjomara
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Did you try skysports.com and bt.com???

      1. FPL AXE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        I can't imagine that it's free....?

  20. Wag the Drog
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    A)Toby (ARS)
    B)AWB (bur)

  21. The Rock
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Fabianski
    Robertson, Doherty, Perreria
    Salah, Mane, Pogba, Anderson, Jota
    Auba, Rashford
    Speroni, Bednarek, Ings, AWB

    1 FT and 0.1 in the bank.

    Does Auba to Vardy look like a sound move or hold for a week?

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      hey fellow no 9. Long time no see...

      What about Higuan?

      1. The Rock
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Hey Christina. Yeah I've not had as much time lately to be on here. How's things?

        Higuain would be my 2nd pick. There are a few things which put me off him though.
        1: Chelsea, they seemed to have turned the corner slightly but they don't look like they are going to be banging in the goals.
        2. Higuain himself has hardly been overly prolific. 2 goals against Huddersfield but none in any of the other games (Although he was close against Spurs when hitting the post).
        3. He could be dropped at any stage if Sari want to play Hazard through the middle, like he done for the final against City.
        4. Vardy has penalties.

  22. Milk, 1 Šuker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Is anyone starting Aguero this GW?

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      not even pep

    2. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Obviously. If not just sell him

      1. Milk, 1 Šuker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Can't. I've already taken a -4 hit this week. -8 is not worth it.

  23. Carefree Crew
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Alisson, (Speroni)
    Doherty, Robertson, Shaw, (Yedlin, Peltier,)
    Salah, Pogba, Son, F. Anderson, (Puncheon,)
    Aguero, Rashford, Jiminez,

    2 FT. £0 ITB

    Thinking of just using 1 transfer, wolves fixtures turn next week Doherty & Jiminez plus Son with blank & Chels coming up. Can't decide what to do.
    Any suggestions appreciated. Thanks.

    1. timmmuh
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Wolves fixtures not so bad after this week; GW30 is Chelsea - not great if Chelsea are starting a hot streak (tbd) then off GW31; DGW32 - bur/MANU; blank GW33; then southampton; BRIGHTON; watford; FULHAM. If you can survive 30 and 33, the rest are pretty good actually.

    2. Carefree Crew
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks mate. Next 4 fixtures Chelsea 2 blanks & a DGW is Man U & resurgent Burnley doesn't appeal. But I take your point looking further forward.

  24. JELLYFISH
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    G2g?

    Fab
    TAA Luiz Doh
    Salah Mane Pogba Son
    Vardy Jimmy Kun

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Who’s your cap?

      1. JELLYFISH
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Probably Kun, Pogba vc

        1. Boxwoods
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          G2g

    2. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Nice team.

      1. JELLYFISH
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

  25. Boxwoods
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Play Fraser (MCI) or AWB (bur)?

    1. SDTA
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      AWB

  26. Jekori
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Is there any news on the FFS-cup? Qualifying round was last gw right? So is the draw today or tomorrow? i'm curious because I had such a bad gw i'm concerned about my place, but maybe the animo wasn't that big this late in the season.

  27. Ten Season Wonder
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    How long is Matip nailed for?

  28. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Martial lookin juicy with that price when fit

  29. Just Been On Loan
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Looking at fixtures, realistically I'm not sure I want to start Digne in any of them between now and 33 (LIV, new, CHE, whu, ARS).

    Worth a -4 to swap in Luiz? Have exact money. Fixtures: ful, WOL, eve, car, WHU

    FH in 32, currently have 8 players set to play 31.

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      This is calculated, I like it.

      This is exactly what you've got to weigh up if you have these players in your team.

      I'd say as long as you are improving (and Luiz is an improvemnt over Digne) then you can't go wrong

      1. Just Been On Loan
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers. Have gone for it. Way ahead in my ML which makes taking hits much easier

  30. SDTA
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Good Afternoon,

    Fab (Rui Pat)
    Shaw - VVD - Holebase - Pereira - Bennett
    Salah - Pogba - Son - FAnderson - Lerma
    Rashford - Aguero - Jimenez

    2FT. 0.3 ITB

    Struggling this week but don't want to waste the transfer.

    Salah + Son -> Mane & Sterling?

    Thanks