Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials for Gameweek 29 and the blanks ahead

This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

2,163 Comments Post a Comment
  1. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Need some goalkeeper help. Can't seem to pick a good one. Had Fab for a while, didn't get me much, Etheridge started well but now has fallen off.

    Tempted to bring in Ederson but is it worth the funds? Like his fixtures though and guarantee of mins in City team...

    1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Keep Etheridge and make a more useful transfer. You can afford an underperforming goalkeeper.

    2. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      It depends on what you will do during the blank games but if you can cope then Ederson seems fine but I'd favour Alisson & Heaton before him

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      I've had Ederson from the start, been worth it. Only 0.5m more than two 4.5m that rotate.

    4. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      pick one who plays in 31

      1. OneDennisBergkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        I'm, FHing in 31

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          and 33?

          1. OneDennisBergkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 29 days ago

            I am building my team so that I should be ok in 33, I don't believe there will be as many blanks as 31.

            1. OneDennisBergkamp
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 29 days ago

              I have Boruc who doesn't blank at all in worst case for GK

  2. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Any news on Kün ?

    1. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Jesus fit

  3. Tsssst
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    anyone taken Aguero out, if so, who for?

    1. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      If by "taken Aguero out" you mean "was going to bring him in for Auba but got Higuain instead", yes.

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Out for Vardy

  4. gomez123
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    I brought Arnie & Anderson in GW 27 for the good upcoming fixtures and both playing in GW31,so far they have got me 4 points each!!...should I keep?? Y/N

    1. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Y

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      I'm keeping Felipe.

  5. Vobinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Heaton
    VVD Robbo Diop
    Pogba (c) Sterling Mane Maddison
    Aguero Vardy Jimenez

    Boruc, CHO, Lascelles, Clyne

    GTG?

  6. pressdpm
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Has Higuain looked dangerous when playing or something? Hasn't really been scoring and yet there seems to be a lot of interest in him.

    1. Latch86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Fixtures, and getting fitter

    2. mgilbert86
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Chelsea have played further back against city and spurs to defend which has made him isolated

    3. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Good fixtures and not blanking in GW31/33.

    4. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      No not really. May even be benched on Sunday

    5. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      And dropped for the cup final

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        “dropped”

        1. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          What would you call it?

    6. Cojones of Destiny
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      hig ain’t bad but old true and will troll those who brought him , weekend games will show

  7. SM001
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Help! Spent ages looking into my team for the forthcoming blanks and DGW's and am none the wiser. No Wildcard left but have all chips.

    Current team and lineup for this GW(29)

    De Gea
    Kolasinac / Pereira / Doherty/ Tarkowski
    Salah / Richarlison / Son / Pogba(C)
    Aubameyang / Jimenez

    Fabianski / Hayden / Llorente / Wan-Bissaka

    1. RussWells89
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Son & Auba to Hazard & Vardy good be a good move?

      1. RussWells89
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        could*

      2. SM001
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Not convinced with Vardy.

  8. Latch86
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Really torn on Higuain v Vardy v Arnie in for Lacazette (-4 hit).

    Already have Hazard and if I go for Higuain I won't have budget to cover any Leicester attacking assets based on current strategy.

    Thoughts?

  9. soup natsi
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    strong team this

    Pat
    Robbo TAA Doherty (Chilwell Clyne)
    Salah Hazard Pogba Anderson (Puncheon)
    Vardy Rashford Jimenez

    very good to go

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Doesn’t start well 😀

      1. soup natsi
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        how do you mean 🙁

        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          Pat is out

          1. soup natsi
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 29 days ago

            wat

              1. soup natsi
                • 9 Years
                5 years, 29 days ago

                a b s o l u t e s c e n e s

  10. HizzerWhizzer
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Is Digne -> a different BGW player a wasted transfer? He has Arsenal and Chelsea in the blanks

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      It probably is unless you will have a squad of more then 11 without hits, in that case it is fine

      1. ScratchingTheMud
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        This

    2. YEAH PITCH!
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      I don't think it's wasted. Probably looking at 4 points across the two blanks.

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      waste

  11. jdogg
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Is

    Patricio son auba

    To

    3.9 sterling and higuain worth -4

    Other gk is boruc.haha.x

  12. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Will Hazard start vs Fulham what you think?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Yeah

    2. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      90% chance

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        this

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      100% he came off on 59 min last game so yes he plays.

  13. No_Mo_Salah?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Play Rondon or Anderson?

    1. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Anderson

  14. Dybala10
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Already done Auba > Higuain.

    Kola > Luiz worth a -4?

    Building for BGW and originally thought with AWB out this would have been a good time to make the move.

    Do it or hold fire?

  15. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    I have 2ft any ideas on what I should do?

    Guita
    Lindleof, Duffy, Pereira
    Salah, Pogba, Son, Jota
    Aguero, Aubameyang, Rashford

    Etheridge, Lascelles, Bednarek, Puncheon 0itb

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Aub + son > Vardy + Hazard both vardy and Hazard play in bgw31 and both on pens

  16. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Is Higuain cup tied in Europa League having played in Europe for AC Milan this season?

    1. TallestJohn
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Quick Twitter search tells me apparently not as they've changed the rules. Wish they'd done it for Auba last year

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      nah

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      No

  17. FPL AXE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Salah and Richarlison out for Mane and Sterling for a -4?

    1. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      No

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      lol no

    3. sailor x
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Yes

    4. Cojones of Destiny
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      u will regret selling mo right after next gw

  18. Plymouth
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Why repost the sarri comments about needing to rest a couple players? Trying to cast doubt upon Haz?

    1. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      He said 3-4 players. All the players who played 120 mins and midweek are under threat, especially if he wants to field a strong team against Dynamo Kiev and then having the prospect of facing Wolves 3 days later (who are much better then Fulham)

      1. Plymouth
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Hazard not under threat imo. Need consistency, London derby, rested from 60 and onwards last game etc.

    2. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Because he made those comments and the admins don't pick which ones they re-post and which ones they don't?

      1. Plymouth
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        They first posted his statements, and then reposted them once again but in a more condensed form.

  19. RussWells89
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Start Pereira or Danilo this week??

    1. Surfeit of Lampteys
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Yes

      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Pereira in case Danilo doesn't start, as is very possible, and comes on as a sub.

    2. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Both

  20. RussWells89
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Start Pereira or Danilo this week???

  21. Sc007
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Sane to?
    A: mane
    B: hazard
    C: Sterling

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      C

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      B because he's on pens and plays in bgw31

  22. sentz05
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Captain?

    A Rash
    B Salah
    C Higuain

  23. Richd
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Not been around much the last 24 hours.

    Every post is hazard higuain

    GIVE YOURSELVES A SLAP

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      better than the vardy/higuain debate

  24. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Bench yedlin or awb??

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      AWB

      Sakho out

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      yedlin

    3. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Did I miss something? Is AWB bac?

      1. Drop Dead Tsimikas
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        Oh, how about that...

  25. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Repost: Lanzini worth a shot?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      wait and see, not yet

    2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      West Ham midfield minefield..i'd favour Antonio...

    3. Surfeit of Lampteys
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Thanks guys. Think you're right but he's certainly got pedigree.

  26. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Hazard or Sterling for C?

    Bournemouth can be good defenive at home and Fulham is already relegated...

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Sterling. How’s this even a question

      Why do you own hazard is a good question

      1. Niho992
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        I dont have Hazard but i have 2 FT and i have plan to bring him or Higuain.

      2. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        haz very popular

        has similar points total to sterling and doesnt blank

        1. Richd
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 29 days ago

          Last 8 he’s managed 5 points, a 15 and the rest are blanks

          Chelsea stats awful

          1. EMBOLOFAN
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 29 days ago

            people said that about haz before he went mad and got a hattrick. form isnt as predictive as u think

            1. EMBOLOFAN
              • 5 Years
              5 years, 29 days ago

              chelsea attacking stats are bad but after drawing v city and beating spurs hope is they have turned a corner

            2. Richd
              • 11 Years
              5 years, 29 days ago

              People said that about hazard when he kept blanking

            3. Pep Pig
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 29 days ago

              I agree mate

          2. Shineonme
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 29 days ago

            Hazards total pts don't suggest that

    2. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Sterling

  27. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Captaincy this week is tricky. I'm tempted to (c) Salah still. Everton are quite suspect defensively and Salah vs Digne looks particularly juicy. Pogba looks like an easy banker but I dunno, feels risky somehow. Aguero vs bou looks good. Bournemouth have seriously gone off the boil in the second half of the season and have nothing to play for but Aguero must be exhausted playing 200+ minutes in the last week.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      salah permacappers unite!

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Finally someone else! Can't believe the lack of love for Mo this week on here.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      Salah could be good, he’s long overdue after 270 mins without a single goal or assist in all competitions

      I wonder will Everton somehow manage to frustrate them though, similar to when Man City came to Goodison

      Then the flood gates open for Mo next week home to Burnley

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 29 days ago

        much comes down to whether lfc can get an early goal again

  28. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Is rmt tipping Higuain?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      not hugely. but nobody has seen enough of him yet to really call it

  29. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Captain dilemma

    Who do you suggest I go with?

    A) Salah
    B) Mane
    C) Pogba
    D) Higuain

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 29 days ago

      C

  30. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 29 days ago

    Son to Mane for -4 ?

    I intend to keep Mane through the blanks and he may play centre forward again if Firmino is out.

    Thanks