Spot the Differential

Higuain a differential FPL forward for Gameweek 30 and the blanks ahead

This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or under in Fantasy Premier League.

As we enter the business end of the season, a considered differential pick could provide a welcome boost for those Fantasy managers chasing a mini-league deficit or striving to improve their overall rank.

All three of our selections have home fixtures this weekend, with two of them also having matches in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

Chelsea’s Argentinean striker is still in differential territory despite the Blues enjoying fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 and, potentially but far from confirmed, a possible Double Gameweek 32.

Higuain looks a particularly enticing premium forward option for those without one or more of their chips and looking for a way to navigate through the choppy waters of the blanks and doubles ahead.

Even for FPL bosses with a full complement of chips, Higuain is an appealing candidate for their front-lines.

Higuain has scored three goals in his last four league matches and has recorded more shots in that quartet of games than any other FPL forward when they are filtered by the same criteria.

No player in his position recorded more attempts on goal or shots in the box in Gameweek 29, either.

The former Juventus forward, along with Eden Hazard (£10.8m), was rested on Thursday night as Chelsea saw off Dynamo Kyiv in the UEFA Europa League.

This weekend’s opponents, Wolves, haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home since Gameweek 8.

Michy Batshuayi (£6.5m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

Not really an option for those Fantasy managers building a team for Blank Gameweek 31 given that Palace are in FA Cup action that weekend, Batshuayi is nevertheless a noteworthy differential for FPL bosses who are adopting a different approach – such as using the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 31.

Batshuayi enjoys home fixtures against Brighton & Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town either side of that blank, while the Eagles could very well enjoy a Double Gameweek 32 depending on what happens in their FA Cup quarter-final tie against Watford.

The downside to any Palace assets, whatever the chip strategy, is that they could very well blank in Gameweek 33, too. That, unfortunately, is something we won’t know until a week on Saturday.

In isolation and as a short-term punt, Batshuayi is an intriguing option.

Batshuayi’s minutes-per-chance average is the same as Sergio Aguero‘s (£11.8m) over the last six Gameweeks.

The on-loan Chelsea forward has three attacking returns in his five appearances for Palace (two of which were as a substitute), including a goal in the 3-1 win over Burnley last weekend.

The Eagles have also scored more goals over the last eight Gameweeks than all Premier League teams bar Manchester City, while Roy Hodgson’s side haven’t failed to find the net in any of their league fixtures this calendar year.

Brighton, Palace’s opponents on Saturday, have conceded two or more goals in each of their last five away league matches.

Ben Chilwell (£5.0m)

FPL ownership: 2.5%

Our championing of Leicester’s full-backs over the past few weeks has sounded like a broken record, particularly when it flies in the face of the Foxes’ defensive form: it is now nine Gameweeks since City registered a clean sheet in the Premier League.

Nevertheless, Brendan Rodgers’ side sit top of our Season Ticker for defence from Gameweeks 30-34 as they enjoy five fixtures against sides in the bottom half of the table.

The Foxes also have unaffected matches in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Despite their lack of shut-outs, Leicester are comfortably in the top half of the table for fewest goal attempts, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks – despite facing Liverpool, Spurs, Manchester United and free-scoring Crystal Palace in that time.

While those stats are to be taken with a pinch of salt due to the management change, only Manchester City allowed fewer goal attempts than Leicester in Rodgers’ first Gameweek in charge.

Much uncertainty surrounds which formation Rodgers will adopt going forward, but the hope from a Chilwell owner’s perspective is that the ex-Celtic boss continues with the wing-back system he used at Vicarage Road.

Chilwell, owned by 700,000 fewer FPL managers than Ricardo Pereira (£5.4m), ranked fifth among defenders for touches in the final third last weekend.

The Leicester left-back is joint-second among defenders for that statistic over the course of the season and fifth for chances created.

Fulham, Leicester’s opponents this weekend, have the second-worst record among Premier League sides for chances conceded from their right flank in 2018/19, meanwhile.

664 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    When will the Set Pieces tab be updated for real? David checked it off 'updated' on January 1st (Friday), but I don't believe anything was changed.

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/19929858

    Kamara is still the second choice penalty taker for Fulham, for example. It's a little embarrassing to put your name next to this page tbh. Is there no communication between mods and editors?

    Why is Friday the day to update it anyway? It hasn't been updated this week either, and surely it's already too late now for anyone who's been considering transfers this week (i.e. basically everyone).

    Reply to this thread with any ideas/info you have for Set Pieces tab updates. If there are few good tid-bits, I'll flag this post for the boys in charge to have a look at, and perhaps get the message through.

    I'm no expert, but one thought I have is that Lacazette scored a direct freekick against Bournemouth (27/02) whilst Ozil and Torreira (listed) were on the pitch, yet he's not even listed as a potential taker.

    I'm sorry to beat the drum, but it used to be a useful page. I don't believe I can trust it one tiny bit at the moment, which is a large shame.

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Intended, I swear. Upvote me anyway

      1. The Ejiptian King
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        If you say so.

      2. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Your agenda is elite chief. Upvoted.

    2. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      As an idea for an improvement, it would be great to have a way to indicate extra information, such as possible penalty duty rotations (Neves/Jimenez?), and links to sources with additional information. It's quite simplistic at the momet, though simply updating it thoroughly would be the biggest and best improvement imo. Cheers

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      +1

    4. Rash
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Upvote and flagged... good post/points

    5. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      One more idea: It would be fantastic to be able to indicate a level of (un)certainty or confidence. Perhaps a coloured flag system like in FPL, with annotations for brief explanations (e.g. "50% - Barnes took last 2, but might be in rotation with Wood" or "75% - Pogba missed his last penalty and Rashford scored an emphatic pen against PSG in their last match, while Player X has a better conversion rate"). Would require maintenance, though.

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Could even be a members perk if necessary

    6. Flaming Flamingo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Great post playa. Can't remember the last time I've even looked at the set pieces tab, it's been basically useless for a long time now. If they're not going to bother updating it, it might as well not be there.

    7. Flaming Flamingo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      In terms of pens:

      Bournemouth - Stanislas is definitely ahead of Wilson and possibly in front of King too (don't think they've had a pen with both on the pitch this season and Stan was first choice before).

      Burnley - Barnes ahead of Wood. Wood was on a hat-trick against Brighton, but Barnes still took the pen indicating he is likely fiest choice.

      Manchester City - Jesus is now second choice taker after Mahrez's miss against Liverpool.

      Manchester United - Rashord probably worth adding to the list after midweek.

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Barnes and Wood have an agreement that if one of them wins a penalty then that player will also take the penalty.

        One unfortunate consequence of this is that neither of them gets the assist.

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          I am a music man
          I come from far away
          And I can plaaay
          (What can you plaaay?)
          I play Flamingo

          Flaming Flaming Flaming O!
          Flamingo, flamingo!
          Flaming Flaming Flaming O!
          Flaming flamingo!

          Cheers both

        2. Flaming Flamingo
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Interesting, did not know this! Looking back, the last time they had a pen when both were on the pitch and neither won the penalty was in the EFL cup and Wood took it. So I was indeed mistaken and Wood should be ahead of Barnes.

    8. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      *March 1st (not January wtf!? haha)

  2. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    My thoughts on Aguero vs Salah for the captainsy:

    Manchester City xG last 4 home GMWs: 12.16
    Watford xG conceded last 4 away GMWs: 7.3
    Aguero xG last 4 home GMWs: 5.15
    = 24.61

    Liverpool xG last 4 home GMWs: 7.14
    Burnley xG last 4 away GMWs: 7
    Salah xG last 4 home GMWs: 2.86
    = 17

    However these numbers don't tell you Salah gets 1 more point for a goal and 1 more point for a CS. FPL indicates Aguero(6.43p) and Salah(9.61p).

    We can probably add to the numbers from earlier and make a little better estimate. Which gives us:
    Aguero: 24.61+ 6.43 = 31.04
    Salah: 17+9.61= 26.61

    The numbers dont talk about rotation risk and the likelyhood for getting subbed earlier. Obviously Salah more safe her. These numbers are estimated from them playing 90 min + added time. Let us try to find how many minutes Aguero needs at least to get for matching Salah’s «guarenteed» 26.61p.

    If we assume Salah is playing 93min.
    31.04/93= 0.3337
    26.61/0.3337= 79.7 = 80min.

    If we think Aguero will at least get 80 min we should in the long run go for him. Other wise Salah its a better choice since he is more likely to realise his full value.

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      This is a really good post.

    2. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Maths checks out

    3. Rash
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Do you have the stats for Mané? Considering bringing him in.

    4. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I'm on Salah at the moment. Think I'll be leaving it in him. Ffs he's due a haul?

  3. pmos
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    If you had to choose one:

    a- Bernardo Silva
    b- David Silva

    1. Yoshimiwinz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Bilva

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      A, but B probably gets more points. Both are important to the team but Bilva gets more min.

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      A plays more min but B gets more pts when he plays

  4. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    How is FH in 32 and wc in 34, better than WC 32 and FH 33

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      How is it not?

    2. coriswrasse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      When would you use your bench boost and triple captaincy if doing WC32 and FH33? Banking on a haul during a single gameweek?

    3. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Not looked at that.

    4. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Think the idea is to hit Bb in 35 with a complete squad.

      I’m sceptical. 35 could be a really tricky week if you consider that United and City both have tricky doubles and most of the other hitters Aldi look to have hard fixtures. The big exception is Liverpool.

      If Spurs get a game in 33 against Brighton I’m probably going WC 32 FH 33. Think the likely upside there is bigger

  5. nelluckram
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Neglected FPL for the last month or so. Wondering what my best moves are...

    Etheridge
    TAA, AWB, Digne
    Salah, Son, Pogba, Mané, Felipe Anderson
    Higuain, Rashford

    Hamer, Diop, Success, Bennet

    2FT. 0.0 ITB. All 3 chips remaining.

    1. Yoshimiwinz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      upgrade that bench and use your free hit next week

      1. nelluckram
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Bennet -> Daniels...?

    2. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I'd keep free hit - use it in 32 instead. Personally I'd do Son and Rashford to Maddy and Vardy this week. Then next week do Etheridge and Digne for a playing gk and defender. Would give you 10 for next week.

  6. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    A) will chelsea have dgw in gw32?
    B) boruc luiz or kepa clyne (kepa safe to start both games than luiz)?

  7. Leviosalah
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    1FT, FH in gw32
    1) Bennett to Schär or
    2) Billing to Brooks?
    Captain: Salah, Robertson or Vardy?

  8. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Considering I am using free hit in GW31 so need to prepare for GW32, would these moves be good?
    Kolasinac + Barnes (The Leicester one) to Schar + Martial
    -4 points.
    Cheers

  9. Super Pav
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Quick question...

    Does a Free Hit work like a wildcard, in that I can make all my transfers on Monday and keep playing around with them until the gameweek deadline?

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Correct.

      1. Super Pav
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

  10. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Deulofail is the Fernandinho of FFS. Deserves respect for his contribution.

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Ok Berbinho, we've heard you.

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        😉

    2. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks Berb :') It's no bother, though

  11. EWH2020
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Start one:

    A) Anderson
    B) Jimi
    C) Rashford

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      C

  12. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Any ideas with this lot?

    Fab
    Robbo AWB Shaw
    Mane Salah Pogba Son Snoddy
    Aguero Rondon

    4m - Barnes Yedlin Doherty

    2 FT 1.9M ITB

    Cheers

  13. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Which is better?

    A) A.Smith (use 1FT)

    Or

    B) Doherty (save FT)

    1. tisza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      exactly the move i'm stuck on. Don't see myself playing Doherty for a while just not sure on whether Smith or Daniels are good picks or just 2 pters.

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I outed Doc last week thank God.

  14. grooveymatt65
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Lost on last page. Just need a second opinion for the below please guys!

    Fabianski Boruc

    Robertson Bednarek Digne Bennett Wan Bissaka

    Salah Son Anderson Pogba Hojberg

    Higuain Jiminez Vardy

    Got 1.9 itb and 1ft and options are:

    1. Son to Hazard and Jiminez to King for -4
    2. Son to Mane for free
    3. Son to Mane and Jiminez to King for -4
    4. Son to Mane and Jiminez to Barnes for -4
    5. Jiminez to King and Benett to Diop for -4 (and play Diop and Boruc)
    6. Save

    What do you think? Thanks!!!!!

  15. CliveTilds
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Would you start Laporte? Worried he may just get a cameo like taa a few weeks back.

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Start, he either gets 90 or 0 imo

  16. Stevie G
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Who should sit on the bench?

    Luiz(WOL)
    Lescelles(EVE)
    Almiron(EVE)

    1. Raybigblue
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Lescelles for me

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Jamaal yeah

  17. F_Ivanovic
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Any City fan ITK shed any light on Mendy's whereabouts?

    1. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Northern Quarter, Manchester.

  18. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Question, if you have 2FTs and you use it and then decide to play FH chip, will those 2 FTs carry into the week after or will they be cancelled?

    1. 1966 was a great year for E…
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Good question!

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Nop. 1FT next transfer.

      1. Rash
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        This

  19. SomeoneKnows
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Who will score more points this week?
    1) Hazard + Hayden/Jimenez
    2) Pogba + Madisson

    Who should I bench?
    A) Hayden (EVE)
    B) Jimenez (che)

    1. Super Pav
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      2 A

      But I fancy Jimenez getting something against Chelsea.

    2. Stevie G
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Hayden

  20. 1966 was a great year for E…
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    I should know this, really, but if you use the free hit chip with 2 transfers in the bank, do you keep those 2 free transfers the week after you free hit?

    Or do you go back to 1, like on a wildcard?

    1. Super Pav
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I have a feeling it goes back to 1, like on a wildcard. Not 100% sure, but that's my hunch!

      1. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Warms my heart to be able to help the elderly on here

    2. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Only 1

      1. 1966 was a great year for E…
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks! Damn...

  21. Super Pav
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    FH will be used GW31.
    Any thoughts on improving this with GW30 and GW32 in mind?

    Alisson
    Robbo, Luiz, AWB
    Salah, Sterling, Felipe, Pogba, Son
    Rashford, Jimenez

    Hamer, Doherty, Reid, Jonny

    I have 2FT, £0.2 ITB.

  22. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    A) will chelsea have dgw in gw32??
    B) boruc luiz or kepa clyne (kepa safe to start both games than luiz)??

  23. T96
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Simple question,

    King or Wilson?

    I know king is on pens and Wilson is rotation risk with just coming back... just want a simple answer of which one you would choose with the info available.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      King - Eddie said Wilson had done some light training this week so doubt he starts

    2. grooveymatt65
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Just go King for the safer option. I am. On pens and will have more gametime than Wilson in the next few. Also will Wilson hit the ground running?

  24. abaalan
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Transfer 1:
    A) Laca -> Vardy
    B) Pogba -> Brooks
    C) Jimenez -> King
    Will be playing this week and with 31 in mind.

    Bench 1:
    1) digne
    2) schar
    3) pogba
    4) jimenez
    5) Barnes

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      A5

  25. Scout Picks Challenge GW27 results
    @ocprodigy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    SCOUT PICKS CHALLENGE - GAMEWEEK 27 RESULTS

    Lets do some back-to-back results real quick...
    GW27 entries: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/19907462

    ***** GAMEWEEK RESULTS *****

    Here are the gameweek's results:

    1st - FFS Scout (45pts) [3pts]
    Top 4% - Vobinho (44pts), coldplay (43pts) [2pts]
    Top 10% - Apples...Oranges (42pts), Lugs (41pts), DrawnToMecca (37pts), Classix (35pts), Ramboros (33pts) [1pt]

    with Lord and Mince n Tatties missing out on 31pts!

    Topping the charts this week, means clearly there's no bonus points to give out!

    ***** THE STANDINGS *****

    That additional point may end up being costly for Lord with Ramboros sneaking in... your top three:

    1st - Lord (24pts)
    2nd - Ramboros (23pts)
    3rd - FFS Scout (19pts)

    Spreadsheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oyuz31n7ppeccuu/Scout%20Picks%20Challenge.xlsm?dl=0
    [To be updated after GW27]

  26. Hargo
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Ederson Boruc
    Robertson Luiz Shaw Lejeune Digne
    Salah Pogba Son Jota Westwood
    Aguero Rashford Jimenez

    2FT 0ITB

    Building towards 31. Jota to Brooks? Other suggestions?

  27. Arsenal97
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Do you think that jesus will play next match ,so aguero could rest for the champions league match ?

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      No one knows what Pep will do, but I think Kun starts.

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Pep always shocks me with his team selectiions so who knows

  28. SomeoneKnows
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Best to have for GW30, 31 & 33?

    A) Madisson
    B) Brooks
    C) Fraser

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Something in my head is saying vardy but I haven't the bottle to captain him. I'm on salah atm

  29. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Head says Kun, heart says Salah, devil on my shoulder says Vardy.

    Lots of good Captain options this GW

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Head always

    2. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Im going with the Devil.

      Vardy has like 100% goal involvement and i dont see leicester not scoring

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Wish I had the b@lls 🙂

        1. KingOllie
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Iv been captaining safe the last 2 weeks and both blanked. Time to try something else

  30. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    G2G or Jimenez to King?

    Ederson
    Pereira TAA VVD
    Salah(c) Sterling(vc) Pogba Anderson Brooks
    Jimenez Higuain

    Boruc Doherty Barnes Bednerak