Spot the Differential

Three attack-minded differentials for FPL Blank Gameweek 31

This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or under in Fantasy Premier League.

As we enter the business end of the season, a considered differential pick could provide a welcome boost for those Fantasy managers chasing a mini-league deficit or striving to improve their overall rank.

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times but we have an even smaller pool of players to choose from this weekend, with half of the top flight without a league fixture.

On top of this, many of the appealing Fantasy assets who are in Premier League action in Gameweek 31 have seen their FPL ownership rise as a result of the lack of competition in the transfer market.

There are plenty of differentials within the active top 10k, too, as opposed to the overall FPL ownership figure that includes “ghost teams”: Callum Wilson (£6.4m), owned by just 1.04% of the top 10,000 at the point of the Gameweek 30 deadline, is one example.

We are sticking to the usual rules for our weekly feature, though.

Two of our midfield selections play each other this weekend but their clubs have no clean sheets between them in a combined 14 Premier League matches, so we are banking on goals.

An alternative route into the Newcastle attack is also examined.

Harvey Barnes (£5.5m)

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Youri Tielemans (£6.0m) was close to being our now obligatory Leicester City differential this week.

The on-loan Belgian has delivered attacking returns in each of his last three Premier League starts and is owned by fewer than 1% of FPL managers overall (the same applies within the top 10k).

Since he made his debut in Gameweek 26, only two midfielders have had more attempts on goal than Leicester’s loanee.

One of those players is Harvey Barnes (£5.5m).

Not even Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) can match Barnes’ shot tally over those five Gameweeks.

He is, of course, still yet to score and questions remain over his composure in front of goal and finishing ability.

Having said that, the young winger was only a flying Sergio Rico (£4.4m) save away from opening his account against Fulham in Gameweek 30 and earlier curled another effort narrowly over.

Barnes certainly passed the eye test against the admittedly limited Cottagers and registered his third assist in seven appearances last Saturday.

Barnes continues to be overlooked by the wider Fantasy community: seven Leicester players, including Tielemans, have been bought by more FPL managers in the lead-up to Gameweek 31.

Thirty-three FPL midfielders are proving more popular acquisitions at the time of writing.

On Saturday, Barnes will be up against a Burnley defence that has shipped the joint-highest number of goals (nine) in the last three Gameweeks.

The Clarets have kept only one clean sheet in ten matches and have conceded more chances from their right flank (i.e. Leicester’s left) in 2018/19 than any other side.

Dwight McNeil (£4.4m)

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Perhaps one for the Free Hit crew if they are maxing out on premium options elsewhere, Dwight McNeil (£4.4m) is among the most appealing bargain-bin midfield options in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

McNeil’s performance against Liverpool last weekend was one that defied the key underlying stats.

The young winger didn’t register a single shot or key pass at Anfield, touching the ball just once in the hosts’ area.

However, anyone who saw the game would have been impressed by how much trouble McNeil caused Trent Alexander-Arnold (£5.6m) down Liverpool’s right.

Four of McNeil’s six take-ons were successful, while the Burnley winger delivered eight crosses from the left flank.

Sean Dyche called the England under-20 winger’s display “outstanding”, which bodes well for his chances of starting for the 12th Premier League match in a row on Saturday.

Since his return to the Burnley starting XI in Gameweek 20, only four FPL midfielders have delivered more crosses than McNeil. Those four players have the advantage of being their club’s chief set-piece takers, however, so McNeil is among the leading midfielders for deliveries from open play.

There is plenty of height for McNeil to aim at in this Clarets’ side.

Chris Wood (£6.2m) and Ashley Barnes (£5.7m) didn’t get much joy out of the Liverpool defence last week but a Leicester backline that is without a clean sheet since New Year’s Day may prove easier for Burnley’s strike pair and McNeil to penetrate in tandem.

McNeil’s average of a shot every 51.1 minutes over the last 11 Gameweeks is far from eye-catching but is still the best among Burnley’s regular starters in midfield over the last few months and almost on a par with Wood’s mean (49.7) during that time.

Ayoze Perez (£6.1m)

FPL ownership: 1.5%

Ayoze Perez (£6.1m) comes into Gameweek 31 fresh off the back of a 16-point return against Everton last weekend – by some distance his biggest haul of the season and his first double-digit one at that.

The streaky Spaniard’s three goals and one assist in the last four Premier League fixtures is exactly what he managed in the first 26 Gameweeks of the season and, for those FPL managers who look back at previous trends, we are entering into the time of the year when the Newcastle forward comes to life: Perez’s match-winning strike in Gameweek 31 of last season sparked a run of six goals and two assists in eight games.

Perez also scored three goals and set up another in the final three games of the Magpies’ Championship-winning season of 2016/17.

Perez’s recent upturn in underlying stats are perhaps partly down to the arrival of Miguel Almiron (£6.0m).

Newcastle’s Spanish-speaking front three look more potent than they did when Christian Atsu (£5.1m) was deployed in Almiron’s position and have demonstrated an excellent understanding over the last month.

Since the Paraguayan midfielder made his full debut in Gameweek 27, Perez ranks among the top six FPL forwards for overall goal attempts, shots in the opposition area, efforts on target, penalty box touches and chances created.

Salomon Rondon (£5.9m) is the obvious route into this Newcastle attack but his FPL ownership is surging towards the 10% mark and more than one in four of the top 10,000 managers owns the Venezuelan striker.

While Bournemouth are far less porous on their own turf than they are on the road, the Cherries have the fourth-worst defensive record in the Premier League this season.

Eddie Howe’s side have conceded two or more goals in six of their 15 home matches in 2018/19, too.



650 Comments Post a Comment
  1. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Now that Milner played, is Trent safe for Sunday?

    1. tucaoneo
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Why not?

  2. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Arnie likely to start?

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Yes

      1. Maddamotha
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Why, any comments?

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          See scout tweets

  3. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Bottomed: is Daniels playing now? Need a makeweight for 31/3. Thanks

  4. Jaok
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Sterling + Son + Rashford + (pogba / kamara) to

    A: hazard + Wilson + Mane - 4
    B: Mane + Wilson + Fraser - 4
    C: hazard + mane + fraser + Wilson/vardy - 8
    D: Mane + Vardy + Wilson + Fraser -8

    AB, 10 players, CD, 11 players. FH32

    Thoughts?

  5. Evasivo
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Adam Smith likely to play this GW?

    Really don't want to transfer out... Mainly cos it'd be for a -4, plus I've just got him in!

    1. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Hamstring injury so unlikely I think.

      1. Evasivo
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        May just field 10men in that case

  6. DandyDon
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    If Giroud goes and gets a start over Higuain this weekend I might cry

    1. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      One is ill and one scored a hattrick. I'd be worried. (And am because I own him too)

    2. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      yuh

  7. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Piggy who? Giroud is the man.

  8. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Please pick 1:

    A) Play Westwood - home to Leicester - (1 goal & 7 assists this season)

    B) Do Pogba >>> Fraser for a -4 and bench Westwood.

    I have 11 players for this gameweek if i do A, if i take the -4 i have 12

    Thanks guys.

  9. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    I’m sure Zola just said “I think he’s earned a start this weekend” 😉

    1. TAT
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      He's their best striker, so why shouldn't he?

  10. V-2 Schneiderlin
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    I'm down to 6 players this week due to Schar suspension - don't want to mess with my team too much. Should probably just FH this week (have all my other chips including WC) - any downsides to using FH now?

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      How many FTs you got? I'd take a few hits to field 9 atleast tbh and then can get a triple City, triple Chelsea and double United atleast in GW 32 imo

      1. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Only one FT and team is quite good for GW32 - thinking I can save points losses this week by using FH (and also prevent losing players I'll want back) - but thanks for the advice something to consider

        1. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          I'm in a v similar position. I'm doing a - 12 to field 11 so I get them for 31 and 33 then can build a v nice squad for dgw 32

          1. V-2 Schneiderlin
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 16 days ago

            It's a tough one as I don't have too many players I can take out permanently

            1. Tsparkes10
              • 5 Years
              5 years, 16 days ago

              Why? Wildcard in 34 to get them back. Will only be gone in 31 and 33 which they won't be playing in anhway

    2. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Your week 33 team?

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        This

      2. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Good point - pretty poor for GW33 with Wolves and ManU so might be better to use it then

  11. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Do you think merse did the doc on his gambling addiction to get cash to gamble some more?!

    1. GREEN IS GOOD
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I'd say it's evens.

    2. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Merse has a gambling problem?

      1. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Water is wet, the Queen is old, Brexit is a disaster!!

  12. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Can't see Alonso not starting after this performance. Absolute masterclass.

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Still a risk imo - not like Fulham are really considered a challenge

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      What about Giroud, he’s got a hatty!

    3. rokonto
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Please start on Sunday Alonso
      I need u 2 repay me keeping u all this time

      1. George James
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Yep same. Still can’t believe he’s in my team still.

  13. child of God
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Really Giving me a headache this one.
    Need one of these but who's the best for this Gw?
    A. Vardy
    B. Wilson
    C. Arnie

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A closely followed by B

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        this

    2. DeathoftheParty
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I'm rolling with all 3... But considering Higuain.

    3. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      If all start CBA for this week

    4. DeathoftheParty
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      But yeah... B

  14. DÏLKS
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Fab
    Matip - TAA
    Salah - Anderson - Fraser
    Higuain

    Worth doing Rashford, Pogba , Son -> Wilson, Maddison & Hazard (-8)?

    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Yes

  15. Bring the Cavalry
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    What is Arnies ownership in the top 10k?

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      0.00001

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Non existent as he’s got no points so his owners are all outside 🙂

    3. Bring the Cavalry
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Could anyone tell me the website for finding the ownership of players in the top 10k?
      Cheers

      1. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Fpl discovery - although you’ll only get the last GW

        1. Bring the Cavalry
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          Thanks very much!

  16. jaywills
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Hello lads. I have 5 players for Gw31 and 2FT.
    TAA, robbo, anderson, salah, king.
    Should I free hit?
    I have sterling , jimi, Doherty, ederson, rashford, son, awb for gw32 so theres some doubles in there.
    Thanks for your help!

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      FH and save the 2...

  17. TAT
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Giroud only £7.7. Hm…

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Yeah, but what are the odds he is fit enough to play 90 minutes Thursday followed by 90 minutes Sunday? Even though he went wild today, I'd still wager Higuain is more likely to start this weekend

      1. TAT
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        It was (slightly) meant as a joke, but if Higuain isn't fit by the weekend, why risk him at all? Play a Giroud coming from a great performance, I'll say!

  18. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    What a dilemma! Need to choose 3 players from:

    Fwds: Higuain, Vardy, Wilson, Arnie
    Mids: Hazard, Mane, Fraser

    Assuming money isn’t an issue, which 3 would you want for gw31/33?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Willy Hazzy Maney

    2. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I'd want 5 of them. What's team and situation?

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Fab
        TAA • Digne • Pereira • Lascelles -- Schindler
        Salah • Sterling • Richarlison • Hayden -- Pogba
        King • Kun -- Jimenez

        Planing to make 3 transfers

        1. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          I'd obvs want Fraser and Mane over Hayden and Rich but maybe not for hits

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 16 days ago

            Mane, Wilson and Haz in that case mate

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Vardy, Wilson, Mané.

  19. Boomerang V
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    If you were free hiting would you double up on Chelsea's defense or spread the risk?

    A) Fab
    Robbo - Azpi - Luiz

    B) Fab
    Robbo - Azpi - Aké

    Money is not a problem

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B

    2. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I like Ake a lot

      1. FPL Pillars
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Don’t tell the Mrs

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Spread 'em

  20. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    King or Maddison ahhhh

    1. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      None

      1. Tsparkes10
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Ake? Brooks? Lols

        1. Royal5
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          Fraser/Wilson

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 16 days ago

            Got Vardy, Fraser , Wilson

  21. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Hadn't considered Dwight O'Neil. Might take a punt.

    I have 11 players with fixtures this week but one of them is Puncheon, so might be worth switching.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Do you have Brooks, GB?

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I do not. Might be a better option actually...

        I have Wilson.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          Yep, I'm doubling up on those two.

  22. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Will Higuain need to be risked with Giroud in this form?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Super sub 😀

    2. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Giroud will start

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Sure

    3. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I wouldn’t be rushing to get him in

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      troll-la-la-la-la

  23. Prison Mike
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Best option?

    A) Aguero, Son & Camarasa -> Wilson, Hazard & Fraser (-8)

    B) Aguero, Son & Jiminez -> Wilson, Hazard & Arnautovic (-8)

    So... Arnautovic or Fraser?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A

  24. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Am going to be getting Wilson in tomorrow. Who would you sell?

    a) Barnes
    c) Higuain

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Hig. Never considered him

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Sick pigs dont tend to be much use.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Chelsea are going to have a DGW later so I'm leaning towards selling Barnes.

        1. Rainer
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          There’s your answer so.

    3. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      How did you end up being in such a situation??

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        planning 🙂

        Howe's press conference last week didn't sound promising that King would start, so I brought in Vardy for Long and benched Barnes vs Liverpool.

        I still want Wilson and he's an upgrade on Barnes, so I think I'll make that move.

  25. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Giroud is going to steal Higuain's spot now, isnt he........

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Nah, Sarri and Higuain were spotted in a tree k-i-s-s-i-n-g.

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      It still surprises me that he wasn't first choice before Higuain's arrival. It seems only the French national team appreciate his qualities.

  26. TAT
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Giroud is fantastic!

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Much maligned as a donkey. Bit unfairly, imo.

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Hes a donkey whenever it matters. Has he ever scored an important goal?

      2. TAT
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        A bit? He was crucial for Arsenal more than a few times! Still strange to see him in the blue jersey instead of the red one…

  27. Jaok
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Score prediction Haz, gameweek 31 and 33?

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      5 and 8

    2. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      12 pointer in both

  28. Viper
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Evening all. Which option looks best?

    A. Bednarek - > Ake. Field 9. No hit.

    B. Doherty - > Azpilicueta. Field 9. No hit

    C. Doherty & Jimenez - > Azpilicueta & Wilson (-4). Field 10

    Id lose 0.5m on Doherty & 0.6m on Jimenez so unlikely to rebuy

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      C, mate.

      1. Viper
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Thanks

    2. Jimmy Boy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B imo

  29. Jimmy Boy
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    A) Azpilicueta and Barnes (LEI)
    B) Emerson and Maddison

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A

  30. Jaok
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Sterling + Son + Rashford + (pogba / kamara) to

    A: hazard + Wilson + Mane - 4
    B: Mane + Wilson + Fraser - 4
    C: hazard + mane + fraser + Wilson/vardy - 8
    D: Mane + Vardy + Wilson + Fraser -8