Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials with two fixtures in Double Gameweek 32

This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or under in Fantasy Premier League.

Differential picks are a valuable commodity for Fantasy managers chasing a mini-league deficit or hoping to improve their overall rank as we enter the season run-in.

All three of our selections this week have two fixtures in Double Gameweek 32, though of course, we’re at the mercy of possible rotation given the short turnaround time between matches.

David Silva (£8.5m)

FPL ownership: 5.0%

Just about clinging onto his differential tag after 28,000 transfers in (at the time of writing), David Silva (£8.5m) is one of seven Manchester City midfielders whose ownership currently stands at 5% or less.

Riyad Mahrez (£8.2m), Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m) and Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4m) are among the other City assets in this bracket and, like Silva, there has to be legitimate concern over how many minutes each player will be handed with the reigning champions also facing an FA Cup semi-final a week on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola’s side face Fulham and Cardiff City before then, however, and even if Silva is only handed one start (and perhaps a substitute’s appearance) in Gameweek 32, there is plenty of optimism that he can wreak sufficient damage in whatever game-time he is afforded.

“El Mago”, unlike the likes of Gundogan and Bernardo Silva (£7.5m), has been rested over the international break and would perhaps have a slight edge regarding a start at Craven Cottage on Saturday.

Fulham have conceded two or more goals in all 11 of their Premier League matches in 2019 and have kept just two clean sheets this season.

Silva’s biggest FPL score of 2018/19, indeed, came in the reverse fixture back in September.

Cardiff, meanwhile, have lost all eight of their matches against “big six” opposition this season and conceded 27 goals in the process.

Silva’s recent goal record is a little off-putting (he hasn’t scored in the league this calendar year) but he does have four assists in his last six starts and only one Fantasy asset has created more big chances than Silva in 2019.

When Premier League players are filtered by their last six matches, the veteran playmaker ranks second for penalty box touches – even ahead of Raheem Sterling (£11.6m) and Sergio Aguero (£11.8m).

Our Gameweek 32 midfielders piece has more statistical analysis of Silva’s recent displays.

Ashley Young (£5.7m)

FPL ownership: 2.2%

While Manchester United’s clean sheets have dried up over their last three league matches, that run has coincided with injuries to defensive shields Nemanja Matic and Ander Herrera (both £5.0m) – as well as other players further up the pitch.

With bodies flooding back from injury, there are reasons to be positive of the Red Devils recording at least one shut-out in Double Gameweek 32.

Only United’s cross-city rivals have kept more clean sheets and conceded fewer goals than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side (five) in 2019, while just three top-flight teams have allowed fewer big chances during that time.

There is also a chance that Watford and Wolves, United’s opponents in Gameweek 32, may also have one eye on their FA Cup semi-final meeting at Wembley a week on Sunday, with rotation a strong possibility in both camps.

The Hornets have actually registered fewer shots on target than any Premier League side this calendar year.

Both Wolves and Watford sit in the bottom four for attempts on goal during this period, although admittedly only three clubs have carved out more big chances than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.

Even if the clean sheets don’t materialise, Ashley Young (£5.7m) could potentially compensate with an attacking return.

A taker of corners and free-kicks, Young has the third-best minutes-per-chance-created average among first-choice FPL defenders in 2019.

Young has started eight of the last nine Premier League matches and comes into Gameweek 32 on the back of a three-week break, having been suspended for the FA Cup quarter-final defeat to Wolves.

His ability to play on either flank is a bonus, too, with Luke Shaw (£5.1m) an injury doubt and being only one yellow card away from a two-match ban.

You can read more on Young in our Gameweek 32 defenders piece.

Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

The jury remains very much out on Chelsea, Maurizio Sarri and Gonzalo Higuain (£9.6m) after yet another away-day loss in Gameweek 31.

The fact that only one of our Scout Squad panel selected Higuain as one of their five permitted forwards (and as a fifth-choice, to boot) summed up the lack of faith in the Argentinean striker among the Fantasy community at present.

At the time of writing, four other Chelsea assets – Eden Hazard (£10.9m), Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.3m), David Luiz (£5.9m) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.4m) – were proving more popular buys ahead of Gameweek 32, as Fantasy managers (especially those using their Free Hit/Wildcard) mull over a possible defensive double-up for the Blues.

Three goals in seven Premier League starts is hardly a record to be excited about but the fact remains that Higuain is one of few premium options with two fixtures in Gameweek 32 who is still a genuine differential.

We’ve said on these pages over the past few weeks that Chelsea’s opposition over the next five days – Cardiff and Brighton – are the primary reason why we are currently interested in the Blues’ assets, rather than because of any form Sarri’s troops have demonstrated themselves.

On the positive side for Higuain, his three goals in a Chelsea shirt came in his only two meetings with sides in the bottom eight of the Premier League table: Fulham and Huddersfield.

Chelsea face another two of those clubs in Gameweek 32 and Cardiff’s record against the big six this season (played eight, lost eight) gives Sarri’s side the perfect chance to end their away-day blues.

Only Arsenal have kept fewer clean sheets than Brighton (one) in away matches this season, meanwhile.

The Argentinean striker’s underlying stats aren’t too bad either: he ranks second for attempts on goal and shots in the box and fourth for key passes when FPL forwards are filtered by their last six matches.

A lack of big chances either created or presented with is the obvious concern, although that is true of Chelsea as a whole and not just down to Higuain’s failings.

Game-time might also be a worry with Olivier Giroud (£7.7m) an alternative option up front but Higuain did start two matches in four days in Gameweeks 28 and 29 and the Frenchman has been restricted to substitute appearances and Europa League starts since the on-loan Juventus striker’s arrival.

1,082 Comments Post a Comment
  1. wonkeydonkey
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    Which £4.2m midfielder is the best bench fodder excluding CHO?

    1. MASTER ROSHI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Romeu

      1. Keep Calm and Play On
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        this

  2. Benditlike
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    A) Lindelof and Deulofeu
    or
    B) Schlupp and Milivojevic

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Boring B?

    2. JfA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      Schlupp and Lindelof and upgrade mili

  3. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    3 mins in, what has Ole said?

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        😀

    1. theodosios
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      He said stop fighting with your wife and dog coz of FPL, they are all fit but I'l never tell if they will play or not

  4. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    So, anybody got MUTV? 😀

    1. Rostah
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Have it on in the background, showing an interview between Mata & Dominic Monaghan atm. Scheduling on a few sites showing the press conference is on in an hours time. Looks like it's been moved back. Won't be able to watch it in an hour unfortunately!

  5. Lyonnais
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    A) Kepa, Laporte, Lindelof, Son (1x Chelsea def) 3-4-3
    B) Ederson, Azpi, Luiz, Young (2x Chelsea def) 4-3-3

  6. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 18 hours ago

    People sticking with Connolly since the injury news or gonna chance it?

    1. MTPockets
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        captain?

        1. Surfeit of Lampteys
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          I'm gonna do it. Spice the week up a bit you know

      • Keep Calm and Play On
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        He's a bench fodder for most anyway this week so probably not making a huge impact

      • potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        You never know, he might make a full recovery.

        1. Surfeit of Lampteys
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          Hope so. I've not given up

      • JfA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        Can't afford not to 🙁

    2. Vobinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Don't know where this 5pm presser has come from, it's some programme about Mata in LA on at 5pm?

      1. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Lol

      2. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Is it as good as Crocodile Dundee in LA?

        1. Vobinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          No comparison!

      3. Amey
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Wtf 😀

      4. Rostah
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        It was originally scheduled for 5 but has been pushed back an hour. Training after running over since Rashford has so much energy and is banging in the goals hopefully!

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          Haha hope so

    3. Mr Q
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Thoughts on Sane? Insane?

      1. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Outsane.

        1. Mr Q
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          As in potentially awesome?

          1. potatoace
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            5 years, 18 hours ago

            As in his out on my team.

            1. Mr Q
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 18 hours ago

              Hehe alright 🙂

    4. Codetto
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      FH thoughts? 0 ITB

      Kepa
      Luiz, Lindelof, Schlupp
      Sterling, Pogba, Hazard, D.Silva
      Aguero, Rashford, Jiminez

    5. Champions united
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Please suggest
      Bats/jimmy/hig

      If hig then son>mili

      1. Keep Calm and Play On
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        I think im going with Bats

    6. Visionaries
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Struggling with this final decision

      Sterling, Hazard, Martial, ???, ???
      Aguero, Rash, ???

      A Pogba, Romeu, Jimenez
      B Son, Romeu, Jimenez
      C Alli/Son, Miliv, Quaner
      D Alli/Son, Romeu, Bats

    7. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Best defender 4.4 or less? Already have schlupp

      1. Blame it on Traore
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Dunk?

      2. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Dunk
        or Bernardo for the fun pick.

    8. The Yorkshire Pirlo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Suggestions? FH, 1.1 ITB

      Kepa
      Azpi, Lindelöf, Schlupp
      Sterling, Dilva, Pogba, Hazard
      Kun, Rashford, Jimenez

      Fodder, Fodder, Fodder, Fodder

    9. Fassy
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      I think I'm done. Log-off and fingers crossed...

      4-3-3
      Ederson | Hamer
      Azpi | Trippier | Lindeloff | Schlupp | Connolly
      Sterling | Hazard | Pogba | Ayite | Stephens
      Aguero | Higuain | Jimenez

    10. Shardlow
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Is double palace def a major worry to achieve the rest of this team?
      Got some value in AWB and can't afford anyone else. 0.0m left

      Kepa (Hamer)
      Schlupp, AWB, Lindelöf (Peltier, Simpson)
      Sterling, Hazard, Pogba, Dilva, Martial
      Kun, Higuaín (Quaner)

      1. Alli In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        If you're happy apart from the double up you could do AWB to Bernardo (Brighton) or Schlupp to Dunk. But I'm not convinced these are standalone better options, so I'd probably stick if I were you.

        1. Shardlow
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 18 hours ago

          Good advice, cheers!

    11. mik-hail-tal
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      It all comes down to:

      Higuain + Schlupp + Foster

      or

      Rashford + Trippier + Kepa

      Anyone?

      1. LǝgleSs e|even
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Some players have a blank next gw

      2. Jambot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        B

    12. LǝgleSs e|even
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Best replacement for Salah? Have Sterling

      1. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Pog or Haz would be next on the list

    13. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Best palace defender this week excluding schlupp and pva?

      1. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Tomkins safe bet

      2. Alli In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Tomkins?

    14. Riggs
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Bats or Jimenez?

      1. Teror
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Bats

        1. Riggs
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 16 hours ago

          Thanks

      2. JfA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        I've gone Bats as don't like Jiminez's fixtures coupled with rotation and jet lag.

        1. Riggs
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 16 hours ago

          Thanks

    15. Teror
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Quite like the look of Higuain's underlying stats. Thoughts?

      Ederson
      Rudiger - Duffy - Schlupp
      Sterling - Haz - Pog - Townsend
      Aguero - Higuain - Rash

    16. dubtom
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      My XI for GW32:
      Foster
      Young - Trippier - Walker
      Sterling - Hazard - Hudson-Odoi - Pogba
      Aguero - Higuain - Batshuayi

      Thoughts? Initially wanted to have one defending player from each CHE, MNU and MCI but after the Sarri press conference went for Hudson-Odoi which opened up more chances up top and also don't want to miss out on Hazard. Hence no CHE defenders. Should I try to get in a third MNU player and who would I replace him with?

      1. dubtom
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        Actually I'm not that keen on Trippier so might replace him with Lindelof.

        1. JfA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 17 hours ago

          Trippier hasn't been getting many plaudits mind and I fancy Man U to clean sheet against Watford.

    17. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Bats or Jimi or Zaha?
      Alongside Rash and Kun

      1. dubtom
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        I'd go with Bats out of the tree.

      2. Keep Calm and Play On
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        I went bats

    18. Keep Calm and Play On
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      How to spend 1.0m?

      Ederson
      Azpi-Young-Schlupp
      Sterling-Hazard-Pogba-Son
      Aguero-Rashford-Bats

      1. Keep Calm and Play On
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 18 hours ago

        I could also stick with Luiz over Azpi and go Trippier for Schlupp

    19. Slam
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 18 hours ago

      Which one?

      A) Lindelof(WAT/wlv) + Bathsuayi(HUD/tot)
      B) Tomking(HUD/tot) + Martial(WAT/wlv)

      Thanks in advance

      1. shadeslayer
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        A

    20. shadeslayer
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      Rmt plz guys

      A)
      Ryan
      Luiz schlup lindelof
      Dilva pogba sterling hazard
      Higuain bats aguero

      B)
      Degea
      Luiz azpi schlup
      Sane sterling hazard pogba towns
      Aguero schlup

      Not sure about pogba, if matic is injured

      1. shadeslayer
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        *aguero bats

        1. JfA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 17 hours ago

          That's what I've gone for.

          1. shadeslayer
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 16 hours ago

            Which one?

    21. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      Martial too much of a risk?

    22. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      Finished until I swap out Rashford for triple Palace at the last minute

      Kepa
      Azpi Young Schlupp
      Haz Pog Sterling Dilva
      Kun Bat Rash

    23. The Tinkerman
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      This will have to do, huge shame about lack of further United news:

      Kepa
      Azpi, Lindelof, Schlupp
      Sterling, Hazard, Pogba, Dilva
      Aguero, Rashford, Batshuayi

      Rashford the main risk, would have loved to have taken a punt on Lingard or Martial and tried to squeeze in Hig.

      1. Claudio555
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        Got exactly the same team. However I’m also considering Son instead of Dilva (which gives me Ederson instead of Kepa)

    24. JfA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      My team is, not changing now for fear of having Fantasy induced mental breakdown, the wife has already left me on Tuesday and took the dog with her 😮
      Foster
      Young Schlup Lindelof
      Sterling Dilva Pogba Hazard Kante
      Aguero Bats

    25. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 17 hours ago

      Townsend or Defeleou, folks? (Already have Sclupp (sp) and Zaha and currently no Watford coverage.

      Thanks.

      1. Claudio555
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 17 hours ago

        Townsend