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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. simong1
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    8 points behind the leader in my ML with a big prize on the line! My team and his are below. He has told me he is going to bring in Laporte this wk to block me.

    0.3 ITB.

    A) Son > Pogba
    B ) Jimenez > Zaha

    Me:

    Lloris - Foster
    TAA - Laporte - Doherty - Valery - Duffy
    Son - Mane - Sterling - Jota - Redmond
    Aguero - Rashford - Jimenez

    Him:

    Allison - Ryan
    Robertson - Azpi - Kolasinac - AWB - Duffy
    Salah - Son - Hazard - Gundogan - Westwood
    Vardy - Wilson - Jimenez

    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Anathallo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

      With your double City I reckon you've got this.

  2. Denis Tueart on the wing
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    How many points guesstimate this final GW for;
    a) Pogba
    b) Bilva
    c) Shaw
    d) Laporte

    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      4
      10
      2
      6

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      8
      2
      6
      6

    3. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      2
      2
      2
      7
      In all honesty...

    4. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      so Laporte gets a cleanie and Bilva goes off before 60 mins

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        No he gets a yc 😛

  3. pol
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing with 5 points behind leader who has pogba and I have rashford
    A- Son + Jimenez > Fraser + Vardy (-4)
    B- Son + Jimenez > Pogba + Zaha (-4)

    1. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      how about Son + Jimenez to --> Fraser + Zaha ??

      1. pol
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        you rather have zaha than vardy? Why is that? the general consensus here seems to be that vardy will have a good game against tired chelsea

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      With only 5 points behind I wouldn’t advise a 4 point hit, just Son for Fraser. Pointless bringing in Pogba if he has him

  4. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Fraser/Wilson poised to cause havoc to depleted palace back line right ?

    (No Dann/Sakho/Tomkins)

    1. Toby Lerone
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I'm debating if I have the minerals to captain wilson

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Dann is not confirmed out, he’s a doubt.

    3. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      AWB to play all four positions and keep a CS, 3 BAPS ofc.

    4. St. Joseph
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      He should be, i already bring him in

  5. SkeletONv01
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    If i get Salah in for Son, i will have 5.8m for a third striker, best option for that price? Deeney?

    1. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Origi

      1. SkeletONv01
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Already with 3 Pool (TAA, Mane, Salah) 🙁

        1. tucaoneo
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          That's a shame. You are missing out on the big one.

  6. Toby Lerone
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Yoshida > laporte worth a -4 or play doherty?

    1. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I would do. Laporte get the bonuses

    2. Chandler Bing
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Is Yoshi confirmed out?

  7. Cruz88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone concerned that Redmond does better when playing up front (and with Long and Ings around has been pushed deeper)?

  8. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who will score more?

    Gunn, Valery, Walker, Arnold, Kelly, Moura, Pogba & Rashford

    Or

    Leno, Lindelöf, Laporte, van Dijk, Salah, Redmond, Wilson & Rondón + 13 points.

    1. Tev
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Too many variables to be remotely sure, wait and see.

  9. FPL Pillars
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hey guys...

    Got a few decisions to weight up here.

    Who to start:

    1) Lloris
    2) Gunn

    Who is best to transfer in:
    A) Fraser and Vardy
    B) Pogba and Wilson
    C) Rashford and Moura (punty)

    Cheers

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Lloris
      Fraser/Babel Vardy

  10. LaLaLand
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    why are so many going Wilson over Zaha when CP are home?

    1. FredrikH
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Zaha prefer to score when he's not at home if you know what I mean.

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Thats the prob.. they are at home.. their away record is far better.

    3. St. Joseph
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Wilson's away form vs palace's home form

  11. WolfTheJack
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    So with Firmino confirmed out, what’s the news on Origi being fit to start?

  12. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Sane a punt to far?

    1. Tev
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Don’t reckon he starts

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      For one week I don’t mind actually if chasing. If you think he starts.

      1. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Not really chasing just felt fruity as it's the last week. Might be a stretch

  13. simong1
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A or B?

    A) Son > Pogba
    B) Jimenez > Zaha

  14. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    15.7m for 2 mids.

    Who should I get in?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Who do you have?

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Salah, Mane & Babel...

        Selling Richarlison & Son

    2. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Depends on whom you've got already. Deulofeu and Mane look good value.

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        See above

    3. tucaoneo
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Bernardo + Siggy?

    4. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Redmond and........

  15. Tsssst
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rivals XI

    Foster
    Laporte Trippier Lindelöf
    (c)Sterling Pogba Mane JWP Redmond
    Rashford Jiminez

    My XI

    Ederson
    Shaw Robertson TAA
    Pogba Mane Sterling Redmond
    Aguero Jiminez Mitrovic

    9 points behind him, what could I do to beat him?

    TIA

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      How do you know he will cap Sterling?

      1. Tsssst
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Just a guess as he did last week, you're right though, he might not.

        He also has Firmino so might bring Vardy in which could finish me

    2. Tev
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      If you captain the same guy as him you have Aguero to his JWP and a better defence (might be enough). If not, just captain Aguero, a haul would kill him.

      1. Tsssst
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Good point cheers mate

    3. Toby Lerone
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Captain pogs or aguero

    4. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Check Robertson if he fit. I would do Jimmy to Zaha

      1. Tsssst
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Well I'm poised to use my FT on Son to Redmond... Should I not and swap Jiminez instead then?

  16. pablo discobar
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    My final team

    GK Lloris
    DEF TAA, Kompany, Bendernark
    MID Sterling(vc), Salah(c), JWP, Mane, Babbel
    FWD Vardy, Aguero

    Subs Foster, Doherty, Jonny, DCL

    10 points ahead in mini league.

    Rivals team last week

    GK Ederson
    DEF Robertson, Rice, Digne
    MID Hazard, Fraser, Pogba, Salah, Moura
    FWD Ings, Jiminez

    Subs Boruc, Success, Bennett, Lascalles.

    Who wins?! Don't fancy haz getting 90 tbh

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Rival by 1

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I think you are good

  17. FredrikH
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Just do Firmino -> Vardy and play Jimenez, or is Zaha, Pogba, Wilson or Fraser worth a -4 for either Jimenez or Son?

  18. sttewwizza
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    61 pictures on Liverpool official web site from today's training...
    Can't find Robertson anywhere... But Moreno is approximately on 10 pictures...
    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/349758-liverpool-training-photos-melwood-wolves

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      😕

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Oof. Really dont fancy a hit going into this GW!

      Doherty to come on if he doesn’t play

  19. gilean
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play JWP or Bednarek?

    Rival who is 13 points behind and has BB left (only 2 playing bench players), has Bednarek.

  20. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Which?

    A) doherty to laporte, 442, valery/bednarek 1 start
    B) doherty son -4 to pogba laporte, 352, valery bednarek bench
    C) jimy to vardy/zaha/wilson/laca, 343, bednarek/valery 1 start
    D) son to pogba/fraser/mata/bsilva, 352, bednarek/valery 1 start

    1. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  21. Champ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I can’t believe the season is over already. I’m concerned where my addictive traits will bring me over the summer.

  22. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son & Richarlison > Moura & Alli for a -4 and captain one of them?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Think Everton are on holiday?

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yes. Do you?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Results tell the story. GW38 is random though.

  23. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Babel or Rico?

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Ryan

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Rico?

    3. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Babel essential. Last 5 home game returns = 5, 9, 2, 14 & 9 (7.8ppg). The deuce was against Manchester City btw.

  24. drughi
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    My team is in a bit of a mess, luckily 2 FT but don't know which direction to go rally. Team is as follows:

    Lloris
    Robertson*Laporte Yoshida*
    Salah*(C) Mane JWP Son*
    Jimenez Aguero Ings

    foster jota doherty duffy

    Its a sad bunch so need some opinions on what to do.

    A. Son and Jimenez > Fraser and Vardy
    B. Son and Robertson > Pogba and TAA
    C. Son and Yoshida > Bilva and Shaw

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      C as both are definitely not going to play.

      Could consider Fraser/Babel and TAA also.

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        cheers

  25. Captain Warlock
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Would you rather play
    A) Babel & Vardy
    B) Fraser & Zaha/Wilson
    C) Bsilva & Zaha/Wilson
    Or any other Fwd ?

    1. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a

      1. Captain Warlock
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        That’s wot I’m leaning to I think

  26. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo do you fancy most for the final showdown

    A: Redmond + Jimenez....already have JWP if that makes a difference

    B: Fraser + Jimenez

    C: Redmond/Fraser + Rashford/Mitro/Zaha/Vardy/Wilson (-4)

    If C, which forward to chose?

  27. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    2 FT 0.5 ITB

    Son Robbo to Pogba TAA and hope Gray starts?

    Lloris
    Laporte Robbo Valery
    Sterling Son* Redmond Mane
    Aguero Jimenez Gray

  28. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Start Gunn or Lloris?

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Gunn

    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      lol

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        :mrgreen:

  29. FPLMarc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Salah & Long

    or

    Pogba & Vardy?

  30. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who to get for Son?

    A) Pogba
    B) Bilva

    Fernandinho out bad for Bilva’s position, and not sold on Fraser away to Cpl.

    Can’t have Redmond as already have 3 Sou.

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pogba has a higher ceiling, remember after Xmas?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers!