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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Essrick
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing 19 points in my ML, need to captain someone he definitely won't have. How's it looking?

    Hazard & Son > Salah & Redmond for -4

    Foster
    Laporte TAA Valery
    Salah (C) Sterling (vc) Mane Redmond
    Aguero Jimenez Llorente

    Ryan Kelly Hojbjerg Boly

    1. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Seeing as you're chasing, what about Hojberg playing instead of Jimenez? A Southampton cleanie would then net you six extra points and he's got a sporting chance of scoring against absolutely dire opposition.

      1. Essrick
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        How 6 extra points? Do you mean Llorente if he doesn't get on the pitch?

        My rival has all three and I'm hoping to make up the points with Salah (C)/Laporte (he doesn't have either). Not sure I want to have more differentials that might do me bad than good...

      2. DJ1000
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Hojberg is a midfielder

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Your transfers lock good

  2. pol
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Zaha or Vardy?

  3. Cruz88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Leno or Ryan? Expecting both to concede, so looking for save points and not too many minuses

    1. Anathallo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Leno for me. Ryan might get saves but can see Brighton getting battered.

  4. fenixri
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    First sub Jimenez or Doherty?

    1. Von Lipwig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jim

    2. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Definitely jimi

  5. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A McTominay & Aguero
    Or
    B Moura & Alli

    1. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Aguero essential.

  6. Von Lipwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Help! I'm very tempted to pay the extra -4 for Vardy, think he might nail it at Chelsea and my rival won't have him. What do youthink?
    A) Fraser + Redmond -4
    B) Vardy + Redmond -8

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no

  7. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    1) Play Gray or Jota
    2) Rash Wilson Long or Zaha?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jota, Long

  8. Eytexi
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Jonny to Kompany worth a hit?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      No

      1. Eytexi
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers for the response, but why not?

        1. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          If kompany gets A cs you’re in 0 for the -4. Kompany doesn’t score often. Would get attacking players with higher ceiling for FT.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no

  9. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who to get for Son?

    A) Pogba
    B) Bilva

    And: Antone playing Højbjerg?

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A higher upside

      What city you got, Kun, Sterling, Laporte are the three to target ?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Have kun/Sterling. And no fernandinho not good for Bilva

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Moura also an option. Can’t get Redmond as 3 Sou already

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          If the rest of your team is solid I would just sit tight & wait for any last minute updates on Sun?

          1. RamaJama
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Yes, good advice. Also have Salah, Mane, Long and Jimenez. Could also do Jimi to Max 7.3 forward instead, bench Son and play Højbjerg

          2. davidfromkent
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Ban confirmed, appeal rejected, also banned for first 2 games of next season.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Cheers!

  10. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Name the player who everyone used to call Pog (it isn’t Pogba)

    1. SL8
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pogrebnyak?

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Bingo

    2. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A primal call across the swamp from one fpl dinosaur to bring forth the others from their slumber ...

      Pavel Pogrebynak!

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Russian Peter Crouch

        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Haha!

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      pogatetz

  11. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any glaring changes?

    Lloris
    Shaw - Trent - Laporte
    Salah - Sterling - Pogba - Jota
    Wilson - Aguero - Jiménez

    Foster - Deulofeu - Valery - Doherty

    0 bank

    1 FT

    Gtg?

    1. FredrikH
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jimenez Jota

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Could do Vardy & fodder -4?

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Play Deulofeu 343 with Valery 1st sub?

    2. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I’d start Deulofeu over Jimmy

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Toying with Jim & Jot to Vardy & fodder?

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Not for a hit imo

  12. Atwood
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Defending a 15 point lead. Which of my rivals main differentials is most essential to cover?

    Laporte
    Pogba
    Mane
    Vardy
    Zaha

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Mane

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Mané

    3. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I'd say Mane.

    4. Anathallo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Controversial but I'd say Laporte. It's as close as nailed to a clean sheet as possible. The others could fire or not - harder to predict.

  13. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Anybody else think Wolves will ruin Liverpool cs?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yep

      To the extent I won’t be unhappy if Valery subs in for Rob as I have double defence

  14. TAArt
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Set up alright?

    Pat
    TAA / Robbo / Bednarek
    Salah (C) / Pogba / Sterling / JWP / Deulofeu
    Aguero / Rashford
    Ryan / Jiminez / AWB / Duffy

  15. DycheDycheBaby
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Help please! 29 points ahead of my rival in ML, but he has triple captain left, and Salah.
    What do I do? My differentials are Mane, Hazard, Aguero. But he has a slightly better defence than me.

    1. DJ1000
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Difficult without seeing your team. But I would get salah in for hazard and enable it by transferring out another player with a cheaper option. Your rival bound to tc salah

      1. DycheDycheBaby
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I kind of agree. Would do Son-->Redmond as well. Think I should captain Salah as well to cover his points in case of a haul? Or captain Aguero?

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Try to block his TC. I would find the way to get Salah

      1. DycheDycheBaby
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah it would mean -4 though.

  16. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    As posted before by Sttewwizza:

    https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/349758-liverpool-training-photos-melwood-wolves

    No sign of Robbo but Moreno seen.

    People still thinking better to hope for the best rather than taking a hit?

    1. Anathallo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Even if I end up with Doherty scoring 1 point off the bench for him, if I factor in an imaginary -4 that means he gets me 5. And I'll take that!

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I also would have Doherty coming in and you’re right but obv if that -4 is to bring in Trent and he manages 10pts then you’re 5 points up on just holding.

        I do think I’ll just stick but it’s got me a bit worried

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          trent isnt averaging 10pts a game is he

          1. Don Kloppeone
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            No he’s not and this is why I’m prob sticking regardless but just making the point that it isn’t 1pt vs a -4. You have to factor in what the player you bring in might get

      2. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        exactly

  17. gilean
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play JWP or Bednarek?

    1. Anathallo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      JWP for me

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      jwp

  18. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Gray owners are you starting him?

  19. Crazygopher
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Repost
    What to do with this team any ideas 1ft 0 itb
    Foster
    Trip shaw laport
    Mane haz jota pog
    Jim kun rash
    Eth cath doh cam

  20. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Does anyone think Liverpool will win the league?

    1. The Strokes
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Nope but they will win the C1

    2. drughi
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I got a feeling that they will but then again Brighton naaah

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Do you?

    4. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      small chance

    5. Crazygopher
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      No

  21. Kane Train
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who to bring in ?

    Aubameyang

    Rashford

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      b

    2. Saka Punch
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      If money no object, I'd say Aub - played his best game for Arsenal yet yesterday and could easily continue that form at Burnley

  22. Merlinsnose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who scores more this week do you think?

    A Salah
    B Vardy

    Thank you

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a every week

  23. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I have no idea what to do here. Really need some advise

    Gunn
    Bednarek Robbo* Doherty
    Hazard Mane Sterling Hojbjerg
    Jiménez Aguero Rashford

    1FT and 0.2 ITB

    A) Robbo ➡ TAA
    B) Robbo ➡ Laporte/Walker
    C) Hazard Robbo ➡ Salah(c) AWB -4
    D) Robbo Jimenez ➡ Laporte Zaha -4

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Subs: Lloris Jonny Camarasa Dunk

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      doherty to whoever

    3. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Wait for news A or D if Robbo out

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        wont be any more news

  24. xtina
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    11 points ahead in my £100 league...but really stuck with what move to do! We only have 3 players in common & I have a crappy bench & Duffy currently playing.

    ME (1.8 ITB. 1FT)

    Gunn* (Lloris)
    Laporte, TAA, Valery, Duffy (Dunk)
    Salah, Haz, Moura, Siggy (Camasara)
    Jiminez*, Wilson* (Firmino)

    RIVAL (1FT)
    Gunn*, Ryan
    Robertson, Bedarnek, Cathcart, Shaw, Duffy
    Sterling, Mane, Eriksen, Son, Camasara
    Aguero, Jiminez*, Wilson*

    1. Mordor F.C.
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Firm to vardy?

      1. xtina
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Defs will be replacing Firmino. Salah -> Sterling to match his captain for a -4 unwise?

    2. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Haz to Sterling and you good imo

      1. xtina
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Interesting suggestion. Hadn't considered that angle

      2. Pilgrim62
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        No,
        Firm to Aguero and Haz to Sterling/ Mane

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      firm to whoever

  25. Big Jari Litmanen
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Worth keeping Hazard? Midfield is Salah, Sterling, Hazard, Jota & Hojbjerg

  26. Dybala10
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Very surprising people are opting for Redmond over Fraser.

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Hardy a surprise when they have Huddersfield at home

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Hardly*

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Both are good options. Very little to split the two.

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      palace 6th best home decence in league

  27. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Evening

    If you'd like to join in on a live podcast discussing GW38 then come join us over at youtube.com/elitefplpodcast at 630pm

    Thanks for the support

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      are those tats your own steveo?

  28. Mordor F.C.
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Foster
    TAA, laporte bednarek
    Salah (C), mane, pogba, højbjerg Son
    Aguero (vc), jiminez
    Bench: ryan, gray, Johnny, duffy.

    1ft
    A) Son -> moura/bsilva
    B) -4 son and gray —> vardy and deloufeu/redmond

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a

      1. Mordor F.C.
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thx, moura or bsilva?

  29. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son has messed me up this week. Had planned Gray>Long to fund a Duffy change. Any thoughts on these moves instead? Can get BSilva but would have to get a 5.7 def...?

    Foster
    Robbo DUFFY Valery
    Salah(c) Mane SON Eriksen
    Aguero Jimenez Gray

    Ryan Hojberg Doherty Bennett

    Son > Moura
    Duffy > Laporte?

    Or do a -4 for Duffy, Son & Gray out?!

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      just play hoj

  30. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who do I play and who do I bench?

    1. Ings
    2. Long

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      whoever. toss a coin

      1. AYLD28
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I swear nobody gives an answer