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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gegenpress
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    What order would you rank the below 3 for GW38? (Who will get the highest points).

    1) Arny
    2) Bilva
    3) Redmond

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      3 1 2

  2. #FPLBhuna
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed

    Thoughts on

    eriksen + robertson > salah + 4.5m def(-8)

    would captain salah over mane and bench the 4.5m def and play valery

    1. Retro
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      You'd have to be very lucky for that to pay off. Absolute best case, Salah goes crazy for you. I've rarely seen a -8 pay off like that. Having said that, I'm considering Salah myself for -4...

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah you’re probably right mane but a Salah brace and mane blank would hurt!

  3. Orion
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hazard to Sterling for a hit, yes or no? Have Kun and Bilva as well...

    1. HollywoodXI
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      No

    2. SoShy
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Have Kun and Bsilva as well, cant decide between Salah & Raz

  4. SoShy
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any stats to decide between Sterling and Salah?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      You really need stats for that? You really need both but if not possible go with your gut.

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        To be fair it could go anyway

        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Exactly why stats are irrelevant.

    2. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Comparison tool in the members area

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I’ll see you there 😉

        1. Syd.
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Can you lend me a fiver

    3. Treadstone
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Not a stats man but eye test says Salah in good form and at home.Sterling gone off a little lately and away.

  5. Bohemian Rhapsody
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    4 points behind to win the league. 0FT with 0.6.
    I did already do Son to Pogba.
    Appreciate your insights.

    Foster
    TAA / Valery / Kelly
    Hazard / Sterling / Mane / Pogba
    Jimenez / Long / Aguero

    (Ryan / Jota / Boly / Dunk)

    1. @FPLDIARYFPL
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Looks fine... other than pogba 😉

      1. Bohemian Rhapsody
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Pogba... you think its mistake?
        I guess i wasted my FT.

  6. Bruce Lee
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rashford, Son, Tripper ➡ Long, Sterling, Shaw

    -4 and Sterling (c)

    Yay or nay?

    1. @FPLDIARYFPL
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Utd have shown they can rarely keep a clean sheet.

  7. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Would you play
    A - gray (WHU)
    B- Jiménez (liv)

    ?!

  8. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Which option?

    A. Son, Jota and Jimenez out for Pogba, Redmond and Rash (-4)
    B. Kola and Son out for TAA and Moura (play Jota and Jimi)

    A. Seems more fun at least....

  9. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Long or Ings bigger chance to start ?
    or both ?

    1. abaalan
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Wondering the same. Own Ings but not sure whether to take a hit to get Vardy or wood instead

  10. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    The question in the article should be - Can Southampton be trusted

    1. Drop Dead Tsimikas
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Defense: yes (mainly because I can't trust HUD to score). Everything else - eeehhhh...

  11. Jimmy Boy
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son to:
    A) Fraser
    B) Deulofeu
    C) Lucas Moura
    D) Pogba
    E) Ozil/Mkhi

    1. HollywoodXI
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      D - I have a gut feeling he’s going to haul.

      1. Dthinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I have a gut feeling he's going to get benched

        1. HollywoodXI
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Maybe. OGS didn’t suggest that’s likely during his presser - “one or two of the kids will play”.

        2. Top 210 Club
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          His last utd game. Won't be benched

      2. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        If he did it would certainly defy all form as he has been awful of late

        1. HollywoodXI
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Agreed. But had both shots gone in (rather than hitting the bar) last week do you think people would be looking at him differently?

          1. Top 210 Club
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Has best stats of all utd attackers

  12. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A lot of hits flying around, nice to have the big six without a hit 😎

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Does the big six include Luke Shaw?

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Only going by waist size

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Actually, I've started to love this idea of swapping big hitters for favorable fixtures since my second WC.
      Might go heavy on defense next season & keep swapping big hitters according to © needs.
      Mane, Hazard worked out well for last two gw's.
      So I'm spoiled & taking hit again this gw 😛

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Laporte, Sterling, Aguero, TAA, Mane, Salah

        I’m benching Son, nothing worth a hit imo

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Wow. That's great.
          I'm very impatient.
          But i enjoy going for boom or blast 😀

          1. Wild Rover
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            So do I, Ive made 69 transfers but hits are rarely worth it for one week unless you can’t put out a decent team

        2. #FPLBhuna
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Damn you. 🙁

          I’m considering a -8 to complete the big 6...

          Have sterling, kun, laporte, robbo, Trent, mane

          The -8 would including binning robbo and Eriksen 🙁

          It’s probably a no go isn’t it?

          1. Wild Rover
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            I think Robbo will play if that helps

            1. #FPLBhuna
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              I know pal, still feel like I want salah

              Ah this game. Grr lol

    3. Burger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      20pt hit here, I'm coming for all you bishes! 😀

  13. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son and Jimenez with free transfers to- quite liking A as Tielemans being overlooked a bit- but which do you think?

    A Tielemans Wilson
    B Redmond Vardy
    C Fraser Vardy
    D Pogba Wilson

    1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I like the Tielemans idea myself I’m thinking about him over Pogba

    2. SomeoneKnows
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I'm also contemplating between Tielemans and Fraser. My second transfer is Vardy so I'm not sure I want two Leicester players

  14. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Long or JWP?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Surely if you own both you play both?

      1. ZAWAd25
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Have to bench one my front 8 are

        Salah Moura Mane Bilva JWP
        Aguero Wilson Long

        1. Gnu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Has to be Long imo.

  15. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bring in:

    A) Kompany
    B) Redmond

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B 😉

  16. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Are there any Gray owners out there?
    Will you start him, mates?

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  17. tg04
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hojberg for Babel/Deulofeu for a -4? If so, which one - I’m undecided, hence this post. Thanks.

  18. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Vardy or Wilson?

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jamieeee

      1. Daghe Munegu
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        But why? Is Chelsea that bad?

        1. Lord.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          This ganes has Leicester 2-0 written in the stars. Why should Chelsea be arsed?

        2. AuFeld
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Tired legs bodes well for Vardy.

  19. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Llorente or Jimenez?
    I have double Liverpool defence.

  20. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    What’s everyone’s transfers for Son? Are we overthinking the straight swap for Pogba?

    1. HNI
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Frased. Form over fixtures alaays. Thats only thing that helped me get to top 700. Only time form doesnt matter is when we think of Sterlin amd salah. If had been lucky with them, could have challenged all the way

      1. HNI
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Fraser always*

      2. AYLD28
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        You mean Fraser right?

        1. HNI
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Half drunk after great friday night so mistype

    2. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Au contraire. Getting him instead of the likes of Babel is overthinking things. He and his team just haven't been doing it for a while.

  21. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Best pick:

    A) Play Jimenez

    B) Do Son > Pogba and bench Jimenez

    Thanks guys.

    1. Boz
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B if free, A if it would be for a hit

  22. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any Holberg owners playing him this week??

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Would have but am replacing Son instead and playing his replacement who’s probably bernardo

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah that’s what il do Holberg first sub I have Bilva already Son wil become Pogba or Tielemans I think

    2. Oscar Slater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I suppose if you own him then there's absolutely no better time to play him than at home against Huddersfield.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah I guess so mate not inspiring tho he will be my first sub probably

  23. Lexi2014
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Robertson fit? Sorry I’d repeat question been out of the loop!

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Klopp said and I quote, that he’s “fine”. Whatever that means!!

      Hope he plays and outscores Trent

  24. HNI
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Looking to end in top 500. Currently 678. Is Valery to TAA worth a -4? Or valery has as much chance of cleanie/attack vs Hud as TAA vs Wolves

    1. Boz
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Stick with Val

  25. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Shouldn’t play Højbjerg over Jimenez... right?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Right

      1. Top Lad Dakes.
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Good 😆

    2. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Hmmm.
      I might go for Saints guy but I'm no wild Rover

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        They’ll both likely get 2pts but Jimi could be a consolation for losing your Pool cleanses 🙂

        1. Gnu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          I'm beyond consolation thus season 😉

  26. ASAP Rocky
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Does Hazard > Mane make sense?

    Salah - Hazard - Sterling - Brooks - Moura

    Jimenez - Rondon - Rashford

    1. HNI
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Brooks 100% out so first replace brooks to fraser

      1. ASAP Rocky
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I likely won't play Brooks. Thinking of also doing Jimenez > Wilson

        1. ASAP Rocky
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Meaning, no need to transfer him out if I'm starting 3 forwards.

  27. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bednarek G and CS this Sunday would be splendid

  28. Boz
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Start:

    A) Jota
    B) Jiménez
    C) JWP

  29. Jedi_Reed
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A) Risk it for a biscuit and start Andre Gray?

    B) Play Jiménez and enjoy those sweet 2 points?

  30. MFC86
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hazard to Salah for -4 then TC Salah???

    1. ㅤRising
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      go for it,Hazard might not start