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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Gray or Jimenez?

    1. Numb
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jimmy - good fixture

    2. Jedi_Reed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      At the moment, I’m on Jimi. Willing to be convinced otherwise though.

  2. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who to captain out of this bunch - looking for a differential

    A) Arnie
    B) Zaha

    Ederson
    VVD, TAA, Valery
    Sterling, Mane, Jota, Eriksen
    Aguero, Zaha, Arnie

    1. Jedi_Reed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Mane

      1. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Nah

    2. AC Yew
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      TAA

  3. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Robbo to Shaw?

    1. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe for feee

  4. simong1
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Captain Aguero, Sterling or Mane and reasons why?

    1. Numb
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      All good options, no one can know between them and luck will play a part.

    2. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Aguero or Sterling, better fixture and will want to score early and put the game and title to bed.. Plus both due a haul after recent 1-0 results meant very low returns

  5. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone else going with a Saints triple up? I will have Bednarek, Redmond and JWP.

    1. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Seriously considering swopping for Redmond (already have JWP and Valery) but worried about rotation.

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Gaffer said they will play first team. JwP and Redmond a shoo in. Would expect Valery to start too

      2. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I'm hoping it's Huddersfield who rotate and play a few youngsters

    2. aborg
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Me. I have JWP, Valery and Bednarek.
      They were my demise last week as they all came on from my bench giving me just 3 points between them. My lead is down to just 18 points to my rival now who has BB also to play !

      I hope Southampton players can pay me back because I will most probably play those three. I really hope they can at least keep a CS.

  6. Rocky FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Is Robbo fit?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Should be fine

    2. Numb
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah

    3. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Didn’t train today

      1. Numb
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        That means nothing

      2. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        But should be fine so...

    4. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      More likely he starts than rested tbh

  7. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Thinking I’ll just do Son to BSilva, honestly...

    Hazard/Doherty(bench but would play replacement over Bednarek)/Robbo out probably not worth a hit? Rival has Hazard, too.

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      (sorry, team linked it is below)

      Lloris - speroni
      Laporte Robertson* Bednarek - doherty kelly
      Mane(c) Pogba Hazard Son** - højbjerg
      Aguero Vardy Jiménez

      Thanks!

      1. AC Yew
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Can you stretch to Salah or Sterling?

    2. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Son to Bilva is fine, no need for hits

  8. AYLD28
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Lloris
    Robertson* TAA Laporte Valery
    Mane (c) Sterling Hazard Son*
    Aguero Ings

    Foster Long Jota Doherty

    Thoughts here? If son drops tonight I can’t get Pogba...

    1. AYLD28
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      1FT 0.1 ITB

  9. kime67
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Im benching hazard. Hes not gonna start.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Ok

    2. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah he might not given Chelsea got nothing to play for.

      1. Wally711
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Hazard is a big decision to remove tbh

    3. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Is he not? Hmm. Can’t bring myself to ditch for a hit though...

    4. ㅤRising
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      He probably plays a part of the game, but def not the whole game given its only 2 days rest and he played 120min

  10. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    We GTG here? Trusting Klopp wasn't fibbing about Robbo

    Fabianski
    Robbo TAA AWB
    Salah (c) Sterling Hazard Pogba Redmond
    Rashford Deeney

    Etheridge Jimenez Doherty Duffy

    1. ㅤRising
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      He said he should be ok, not that he is ok

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah may be wishful thinking but don't want to make my last transfer a defensive one.

  11. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Robbo not seen in the 63 training pics released today. Any news on that?

    1. Wally711
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Klopp say he would be fine so I’m going off that

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Should be not would be.

    2. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Luckily the match is Sunday so has tommorrow to train also.v

    3. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yes, picture presence no indication of starting or not.

    4. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Not convinced Klopp will risk him

  12. Wally711
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Is taking out hazard a good idea or a stupid one?

    Also play one jota or A. Barnes

    1. Andy'81
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      We'll never know for sure till after the GW ends, I'm taking Hazard out for Sterling (more than likely) which is OK with me for my FT.

      Jota over Barnes for me.

      1. Wally711
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Jota vs Liverpool feels like a guaranteed 2 pts

  13. simong1
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Replace Son with Pogba, Moura or Fraser?

    Pogba - terrible form but on pens and a decent fixture at home. Capable of hauling.

    Moura - likely to play striker. Good form but may be tired after mid week hat trick in CL. Tough fixture against an in form Everton.

    Fraser - good form. In a fixture where goals are expected but may come up against the mighty AWB so may struggle.

    Thoughts on the best option?

    1. Wally711
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I think Fraser will get an assist in that game but you could go all or nothing and pick pogba it is Cardiff after all

  14. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Babel or Lucas for Son? or stay with Pogba?

    1. Wally711
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Stay with pogba

      1. balint84
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        will he play anyway?

    2. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Not convinced on Pogba, better alternative options

  15. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Which do you prefer?

    a. Son > Pogba
    or
    b. Jimenez > Zaha

    Am leaning towards B tbh, but I may need my bench this week.

    1. Wally711
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        thanks King Tut!

  16. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rico or Travers? (BB and only have 4.4itb)

    1. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Rico for me

  17. MarcusAurelius
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Evening all. Im thinking of taking out Son + Jiménez this week for a -4 which of these is best replacement?

    A) Bilva + Rondon
    B) Redmond + Lacazette
    C) Redmond + Rondon
    D) Something else

    17 points clear in my ML and guy below me has Rondon, Bilva and Redmond. Thanks

  18. MarcusAurelius
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Is Jiménez worth taking out for a hit?

    If so who for?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Do you think any cheap forwards can score 7 or more points?

      1. MarcusAurelius
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Possibly Rondon? Guy below me has him and I’m 17 points clear. Thinking of doing it for cover too

      2. Mainswitch
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Shane Long

    2. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Not for a hit

  19. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    De Gea
    Cathcart VVD Bednarek
    Salah Son Babel Mane
    Lacazette Jimenèz Wilson

    Gunn Richarlison Doherty Dunk

    0.7 ITB & 1 FT

    A Moura & Alli
    B McTominay & Aguero
    C Long & Aguero
    D Kompany & Pogba

  20. YouReds
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Jota or JWP?

    1. Taking one for the team
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Jota

    2. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      JWP

  21. YouReds
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A) Mitro/Zaha + Pogba
    B) Vardy + Fraser

    1. Ron C John
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  22. Ron C John
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Guaita

    Davies TAA Duffy

    Hazard Salah Mane Son

    Gray Jimenez Wilson

    Sub: Boruc, Wan Bissaka, Bednarek, Torreira
    FT: 2
    Bank: £0.2

    Son injured, jimenez vs liverpool, duffy vs man city.. any thought please?

    1. Ron C John
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      *son red card

    2. Lazaretti
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Play Bednarek. Son to B.Silva

  23. CHARLIE HULL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Start 2 of the below:

    A) Hojberg
    B) Jimenez
    C) Jota
    D) Gray

  24. MeinBergkampf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I need a midfielder

    1. MeinBergkampf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      ...under 6 mil. Redmond is the obvious choice, but is there a reason no one is going Deulofeu?

  25. migas2k7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    who to replace son for?

    Got salah (already with 3 liverpool), sterling, fraser, pogba

    tempted for sane?

  26. HD7
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Sterling as C over Mane and Kun?

    Start Gray over Jota?