Scout Picks

Gameweek 38 Scout Picks – Goals expected outside Man City and Liverpool games

We’ve included three attacking players from Liverpool and Manchester City for our final Scout Picks of the season.

The two title-chasing clubs may be the only ones with anything left on the line to play for other than proud, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be goals elsewhere.

Using the Scout Squad submissions by Paul, Neale, Az and Peter, and an analysis of the Fantasy Football Scout members data, we have come up with a XI for you.

For the last time in 2018/19, we line up in a 3-4-3 formation and at a total cost of £82.8m, we are £0.7m inside our budget.

Goalkeeper

Sergio Rico (£4.4m) finds himself in the Scout Picks at just the right time to make sure we didn’t go the whole season without including one of Fulham’s defensive assets. Name-checked by three of our pundits, and selected as the best option by Paul, the Cottagers’ shot-stopper faces a Newcastle attack that has managed just three big chances in their last six away matches, the worst of any team in that time. Meanwhile, no goalkeeper has more saves than Rico in their last six at home.

Defender

Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m) was an easy inclusion for the Gameweek 38 Scout Picks. Manchester City have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League outings and travel to Brighton on the final day of the season. The Seagulls are bottom of the league for shots on target, big chances and goal conversion over their last six at home. Laporte himself has added two attacking returns in the last six Gameweeks and his threat from set pieces is always in his favour.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£5.8m) is once again our chosen representative from the Liverpool defence. Price continues to be on the right-back’s side as well as his attacking potential. Compared to colleagues Andrew Robertson and Virgil van Dijk, the England international has the superior minutes per chance and minutes per chance created in the last six home matches. In that time, Liverpool are in the top two for fewest shots allowed in the box and big chances conceded.

Luke Shaw (£5.0m) completes our three-man defence ahead of Cardiff’s trip to Old Trafford. Manchester United may not be in the best form right now but the Bluebirds have been sufficiently poor on their travels this season that we believe a clean sheet at least is on the cards. In their last six away matches, Cardiff have been in the bottom two for shots inside the box and big chances. Meanwhile, Shaw himself has created more big chances than any other defender in the last six matches.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) should be back in the Liverpool side on Sunday afternoon for the visit of Wolves following his concussion and he comes into Gameweek 38 as the Scout Squad’s unanimous best midfield option. The Egyptian remains on an incredible run of form that has seen him get at least one attacking return in each of his last six matches in a row – his longest stretch without a blank all season. In those fixtures, no player has registered more shots on goal, efforts in the box or shots on target than Salah either. Wolves might have a good record against the top-six but considering they rarely keep clean sheets, Liverpool’s Egyptian star certainly has what it takes to reward his owners in Gameweek 38.

Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) is our chosen Manchester City attacker for the trip to Brighton. In the last six away matches, none of his colleagues has managed more shots in the box or efforts on target, while he also has the best expected goals (xG) score among Manchester City players in that sample. That has translated to 11 attacking returns on the road this season, more than any of his team-mates in 2018/19.

Sadio Mané (£10.3m) has been one of the most reliable attacking options in home matches this season. The Liverpool man has 12 goals in his 11 Premier League outings at Anfield, which have come from some encouraging underlying statistics. In the last four at home he has the second-highest number of big chances among all players, as well as the second-best xG too. Just as is the case with Salah, Wolves’ have asked tough questions away at top-six sides in 2018/19 but are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Nathan Redmond (£5.5m) looks like one of the most appealing budget midfielder for Gameweek 38 as Southampton host Huddersfield on Sunday afternoon. The Terriers are bottom of the league for shots allowed in the box over the last six away matches, as well as for their 18 goals shipped. Meanwhile, Redmond currently ranks fourth for big chances and third for xG out of all players in their last four at home.

Forwards

Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) looks set to enjoy the final day of the 2018/19 season. In the last four home matches, no player has registered shots inside the box, more efforts on target or more big chances. That has yielded five goals and an assist ahead of a meeting with Chelsea at the King Power Stadium. The Blues are still without a clean sheet on the road in 2019, will be without the injured N’Golo Kanté and Antonio Rüdiger while doubts hang over the fitness of Andreas Christensen too. Furthermore, Chelsea come to Leicester just a few days after playing 120 minutes against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League, which will have almost certainly drained them physically and mentally.

After Bournemouth’s troubles on their travels earlier this season, Callum Wilson (£6.8m) has all of a sudden become the king of football on the road in the closing stages of the campaign. In the last four away matches, no fit player has been afforded more big chances or a higher xG score. Furthermore, in such games, Wilson is also second-best for shots on target, so he stands a good chance of converting his opportunities. His Gameweek 38 opponents Crystal Palace are in the bottom four for goal attempts conceded in the box over the last four home matches, are without centre-backs James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho while Scott Dann is now a doubt.

Shane Long (£4.7m) completes our Scout Picks team for Gameweek 38 as another option who gets to enjoy facing that travel sick Huddersfield side. We’ve already covered how vulnerable the Terriers will be when they come to Southampton, as Redmond also has decent points potential this week. Long himself has actually been afforded more big chances than the midfielder in his last four home matches, ranking third best in the whole league. His accuracy of 57% over that period suggests his chances of converted more big opportunities are quite high.

Substitutes

Budget man Yan Valery (£4.1m) gets a place on the bench for Gameweek 38 ahead of Huddersfield’s visit to Southampton. The Saints have not exactly been adept at keeping clean sheets under Ralph Hasenhüttl but their visitors on Sunday remain the division’s joint-lowest scorers on the road in 2018/19.

Like his colleague Wilson, Ryan Fraser (£6.3m) has been impressive on the road of late with six attacking returns in his last Premier League away trips. He will also get to play against a potentially makeshift Crystal Palace side who have struggled at home this season.

Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) is probably one of the few attacking Manchester United options we can be confident will get a start against Cardiff on Sunday afternoon. There is not a great deal of form to go on for the forward but given the Bluebirds are in the bottom three for shots conceded in the box over the last six away matches, he should get plenty of chances.

Community Champion

Representing the community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek 38 is Karan14. He has opted for a 3-4-3 of Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Kompany, Laporte; Redmond, Bernardo Silva, Pogba; Wood, Mitrovic, Zaha

The community member who beats our picks by the biggest margin over the campaign will win a £100 Amazon Voucher and a place in our Contributors and Moderators League for the following season.

It was a win for the Scout Picks over Greyhead in Gameweek 37 by a 46-45 scoreline. fclackless‘s winning margin of 33 points (77-44) in Gameweek 10 is still the current target to beat.

3,966 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pras (FPL)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Would appreciate some votes on my last 2 FTs for the season:

    A. Salah + Long
    B. Pogba + Vardy
    C. Pogba + Redmond

    Cheers!

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Pras (FPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Ta

    2. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Tough one to call without seeing team

      1. Pras (FPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Why should it matter? Asking who scores more this week.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          you didnt ask that you asked about transfers

          1. Pras (FPL)
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            How is that different 🙂

            I wouldn’t transfer a combo who scores less points

          2. Point-one short
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            This, plus whether you have a reasonable sub is relevant if eg Long is benched.

            1. Pras (FPL)
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Ok cheers for responding

    3. Point-one short
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Rest of team?

      1. Pras (FPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        See above

        1. Point-one short
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          See above

          1. Pras (FPL)
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            See above

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Pras (FPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thx dude

      2. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        You're a United fan too right ??
        What score are you expecting from Pogba ??

        1. Pras (FPL)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          It’s the last game at OT and pressure is firmly off again. I expect 2-3 goals from Utd but of course depends if Pog gives a #%¥$. If yes, then a goal/assist.

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Cool 🙂
            If you think pogba can get a haul, i like C option more than A

            1. Pras (FPL)
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Tbh I tend to agree. But doing Salah as a defensive transfer so I have 9/10 top owned players in 10k. Boring I know - but would quite like to stay near 5k.

              1. Amey
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 10 months ago

                Great OR & good choice
                Gives you solid © option too.
                GL mate 🙂

                1. Pras (FPL)
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  4 years, 10 months ago

                  You too!

    5. Don Van Vliet
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe figure it out for yourself if you're going to insist on being such a hole when people do reply to your mundane request...

    6. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I would would want to have Mo over all of those, so A

  2. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    How important is a full bench this week?

    1. Scotty B
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Quite

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Depends very much on who you have 🙂

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Robertson, valery, Cathcart, pogba, and long

        Would be fine if two are benched and I think they al should play.

        Have son but would rather get a forward and Laporte than a mid

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          You should be ok with two on the bench mate then if you want to keep son. Safest move is to replace son, though you’ll be very unlucky to need third bench.

          1. Bad Kompany
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Cheers! I know it sounds stupid to keep son but don’t think it’ll matter and slightly prefer a different player

    3. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Could have unexpected rotation in 8/10 games so would be wise to have at least a good first sub (most have Jota/Jim which is fine)

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I’ll have 1 good first sub and a decent second one.

        Should be fine, right?

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Really depends on players in 11 mate.
      I have Jimenez Doherty & ill Yoshida 😛

    5. Point-one short
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      "You don't need decent playing subs" I said last year before gw38. Only 7 players played and I slipped from 7.5k to 17.5k OR...

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        😮

      2. FPL Pillars
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Wow that’s brutal. Totally self inflicted however 🙂

  3. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any news about robbo?

    1. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Should be fine according to Klopp so I’m starting but making sure I have a decent sub

      1. Legohair
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Ok thanks.i assume salah is starting too?tough choice captain salah or aguero?

        1. captainjilflex
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah pretty sure Mo is fine. He has served his concussion protocol. I’d captain Salah but the flag would put me off...

  4. Salahlulijah
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Chances of Eriksen starting? Would you get rid for a -4? Doherty will come on if au keep him and he doesn’t start. Thanks

    1. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Keep

  5. Amey
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    If you're chasing OR:

    A. Son Jimenez >> Redmond Vardy (-4)
    B. Son jota >> Redmond Mane (-4)
    C. Son Jota Aguero >> Salah Redmond Vardy (-8)
    D. Son Jota Hazard >> Salah Fraser Redmond (-8)

    Thank you !!

    1. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B for me. No way a -8 pays off in 1 week.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thank you.
        On B exactly atm.
        Trying few things 🙂

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I wouldn’t go hit crazy for one GW if chasing OR IMO. Taking out Kun for example for a hit is likely not a good idea for for OR

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers mate 🙂

        B looks better then

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          B is sold yeah. Gives you pool coverage and Redmond is understandable pick considering plum fixture.

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Yeah

        2. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Though you can get Mané for free? I would be ok with playing Jota and no hit.

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Nope
            Out of cash in that case.
            Last gw o should have sold Son for Hazard 2/3 days before deadline instead of Mane to avoid hit this gw 😮

            Going to © Redmond so he's first name on the team sheet 😛

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      wouldnt take a hit, simple as

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thank you 🙂

    4. Point-one short
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A or B I think, probably B

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yep. Onto that atm.
        Was trying few things.

        Thank you !!

  6. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    De Gea
    Cathcart VVD Bednarek
    Salah Son Babel Mane
    Lacazette Jimenèz Wilson

    Gunn Richarlison Doherty Dunk

    Is Son & Jimenèz > Pogba & Rashford too obvious?

    1. Licky
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Redmond & Vardy?

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        That is possible but I'd have £1.7m ITB left over

        1. Pras (FPL)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          You will get that back as a cheque via Royal Mail

        2. Point-one short
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Bumper starting budget next season. 🙂

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      the transfers you suggested are good

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Or Moura & Vardy?

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          the ones you suggested are better than any other combination

  7. michudagawd
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Lloris
    Valery Laporte Robbo
    Mané JWP Babel Hazard
    Jimenez Rashford Aguero

    Foster - Doherty Masina Son

    1 FT, 1m itb

    Looking at doing either:
    A) Hazard + Son ➡ Sterling and Pogba/Fraser -4
    B) Hazard + Jimenez ➡ Sterling + Wilson -4

    Edging towards B. Or should I be looking at doing something else.

    Cheers.

    1. subhojit123
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  8. +
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Vardy or Wilson? Bournemouth's recent xG is insane.

    1. wernerhedgehog
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Did Wilson because he's explosive away due to his counterattacking style. But i've heard things like Solanke should play a game, King a threat etc.

      1. Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Solanke's out, according to the FFS team news.

      2. +
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Solanke is injured. Can't really see Wilson not starting.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      their xg is insane bc of brighton and soton games, palace away a diff prospect entirely

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Missing a lot of cbs and the ones playing are dreadful. Also Bournemouth scores a lot from counter attacks and palace concedes a lot from them

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          palace defend well as a unit, don't think scott dann potentially being injured is the end of the world

          1. Point-one short
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            True, Tomkins and Sakho are decent at defending counter attacks.

            1. Bad Kompany
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Both are out...

              1. Amey
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 10 months ago

                Exactly !

          2. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Dann out is a big worry. There’s really no one left - I expect Ward to fill in there which means PvA back

            I’ve been very bullish about Palace defence at home but this switches things around. Still no goal fest but advantage Bournemouth

            They’re still better as a unit than Huddersfield Southampton and bombing Brighton but now I think Bournemouth could return better.

            1. CAPA
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Is Dann definitely out?

          3. Marjie
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            But Speroni in goal??

        2. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          and no they dont, not at home

  9. subhojit123
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Guys... Any suggestion on the below team -
    Fabianski
    TAA WBA Shaw Kompany
    Mane Sterling(C) JWP Pogba
    Aguero Vardy

  10. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Last moves of the season done...

    Son>Redmond
    Duffy>Laporte

    Foster
    Valery Laporte Robbo
    Salah(c) Mane Eriksen Redmond
    Aguero Jimenez Gray

    Need a good one to finish in the teens. Good luck all!

    1. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Nice moves- good luck!

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      You blotted your copybook in GW33 by taking hits - most unlike you! Well done for being so restrained in the other weeks. You should do well with that team but I hope that Roobo is OK to start.

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        quite like "Roobo" 🙂

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          scottish accent

        2. shirtless
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Ha lol. I had to as only had 5/6 starters. It couldn't really fail as the -8 was really only a -2 if they all started and performed. I did Sterling, Pogba, Rashford > Salah, Tielemans, Vardy(c) for a 47(-8) gain! First and only hits for two full seasons!

  11. Greenbackbøøg…
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    What are the thoughts on Deulofeu on here? Think he could do well

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      watford are garbage (though so are west ham) and will have half an eye on cup

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        So they are garbage and yet have reached the FA Cup Final .........?

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          correct

    2. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I have him but very concerned he might be rested for FA Cup Final

      1. Greenbackbøøg…
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Gracia's comments say he'll take it one game at a time though

  12. fr3d
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Jimmy to Wilson for a hit to have some fun? I expect 2 from Jimmy, and definitely possible for Wilson to haul

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yes. I’m probably going to do it

      1. fr3d
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Great minds 😆

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      obviously not a good move but if you want to "have fun" do whatever you want, why ask

  13. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Loris
    Robbo taa valery doherty*
    Sterling mane redmond deulofeu
    Aguero rash
    (Foster - bednarek jimy son)

    Which?

    A- doherty to laporte, 442
    B- son to pogba/fraser/bsilva, 352
    C- jimy to wilson/zaha/wood, 343
    D- doherty son -4 to laporte pogba/fraser (or) shaw bsilva, 352
    E- doherty jimy -4 to laporte wilson/zaha/wood, 343

  14. Fantasy Premington
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rather have Salah or Mane this week?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      salah every single week?

  15. PMz
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Leading my ML by 19 points and my rival has taken an 8 point hit. He has Hazard but may have swapped him for Salah. I've got 2 frees and 0.0 ITB so not much to play with. I'm thinking Son + Jim > Redmond + Vardy. Thoughts? Team:

    Foster (Ryan)

    Laporte TAA Valery

    Pog Mane Son Sterling

    Jimenez Aguero Gray

    Subs: JWP Coady Duffy

  16. KUNingas
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A) Eriksen + Son + Jimenez -> Salah + Fraser + Long (-4)
    B) Son + Jimenez -> Pogba + Wilson

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      b assuming you have aguero/sterling to captain

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yes Aguero

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          think that is wisest then

  17. SkeletONv01
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rondon (C) lets do ittttt.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      good if you hate points

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Not a good pick. Newcastle got one of the worst big chances created in the league away from home. Hence the Rico pick in the scouts picks

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        They might be in for a surprise.

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          I mean I do not think Fulham are defensively great but Newcastle really not nothing to play anymore.

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I think Newcastle could be the dark horses of this week. It wouldn't surprise me to see Rondon and/or Perez do well.

  18. wernerhedgehog
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    This is random but I developed my own prediction 'engine'. Just posting here to keep record and check if it's any good over GW36-38.

    GW38 Overperforming: Watford
    Underperforming: Bournemouth & Southampton

    Top 3 Matchups:
    1. Man Utd win (vs cardiff: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 3)
    2. Bournemouth win (vs palace: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 3)
    3. Tottenham win (vs everton: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 1)

    Notables:
    - City, Liverpool, Southampton wins (Confidences 3.5, hi-scoring 2)
    - Watford-West Ham (Even, hi-scoring 3)
    - Burnley-Arsenal, Leicester-Chelsea tight games
    - Fulham wins Newcastle (Confidence 3, hi-scoring 2)

    n.b: Hi-score means high total goals, not necessarily wins.
    ps: have separate data on weaknesses.
    Previous week: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/20327585

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      you posted this a few weeks ago but without any explanation of how your "engine" works im not sure what we're supposed to read into it. not sure why you'd assume anything you could come up with is better than bookmaker probabilities

      1. wernerhedgehog
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        it’s just my own practice tbh as above. practicing readability of my work, scraping data etc

        Detailed explanation is tough. Principle: find massive outliers in (1) expected rank vs observed rank of a metric within a team (2) head-2-head rank of a metric.

        Initial confidence score is the difference between the FDR of 2 teams; then add/subtract accordingly. For situation (1) - difference of >1 quartile (ie. 5 places) is significant. Situation (2) - difference of >2 quartile (10 ranks)

        Situation (1) eg - defence rank. Generated my own defence stats and expected defensive rank, then compared it to xGA rank. If team A xDef rank is lower than xGa rank by 5 - underperforming. Add/subtract from confidence score. https://i.imgur.com/q53cRBN.png

        Situation (2) eg - situational weakness. Compare team A’s set piece conceded rank (eg 12th) vs team B’s set piece scored rank (eg 2nd). Difference is 2 quartiles (>10 ranks), thus weakness, subtract from confidence. https://i.imgur.com/8xTrbah.png

        What to take from it, nothing. Just me trying to get close to bookies with my maximum effort, without using their derived stats like bookie odds. Posting here gives me an impetus to gather and present in a timely manner, is all.

        If someone wants an opinion on what player/team to take from a random internet bloke, its here I refer to.

  19. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any Liverpool training pics from today? Robbo involves?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no press dont have access every day afaik

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers, hoping for some more info before the deadline!

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          dont think we're likely to get it. klopp said he should be fine but that was in the morning, and then he ended up not training. so wonder if he suffered some sort of reaction after klopps comments.

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I read a comment on First page this Article that he was in training today.
      No link was present though

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I've seen comments both ways, none have a source.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          people misinterpreting comments from yesterday

        2. Amey
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Yep
          Not selling for sure though

      2. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        seen no evidence of this anywhere

  20. merin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son -> Mili / Fraser the best transfer?

    Guaita Foster
    Robertson Laporte Doherty Yoshida Valery
    Sterling Mané Son Pogba Hojbjerg
    Aguero Jimenez Wilson

    1.1 ITB, 1 FT

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      difficult one because you already have pogba and 3 city. i'd rather have jwp than either of those, or you could take a punt on eriksen

  21. Waylander
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play one, lads.

    A) Bednerak
    B) Jiménez
    C) Jota
    D) Wilson (-4)

    Thanks.

    1. Mork calling Orson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a not close

  22. Mork calling Orson
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Lloris
    TAA Laporte Valery Femenia
    Pogba Hazard Mane JWP
    Aguero Rashford
    (Ryan, Jimenez, Masina, Son)

    Would you rather
    A) Lloris > Ederson
    B) Hazard Son > Salah Maddison (-4)
    C) Hazard Jimi > Salah Long (-4)
    D) Something else ???

    Have been on A all week but worried about impact of Thurs on Hazard.
    B & C lets me bench Kiko.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      son to bilva

  23. Hargo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Foster Ryan
    Robertson Valery Shaw Doherty Cathcart
    Sterling Mané Jota Höjbjerg Son
    Aguero Jimenez Wilson´

    1FT 2.6 ITB

    Best Son replacement?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      could punt on haz but pogba probably more sensible

  24. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Loris
    Robbo taa valery bednarek
    Sterling mane redmond deulofeu
    Aguero rash
    (Foster - doherty jimy son)

    Which?

    A- doherty to laporte, 442
    B- son to pogba/fraser/bsilva, 352
    C- jimy to wilson/zaha/wood, 343
    D- doherty son -4 to laporte pogba/fraser (or) shaw bsilva, 352
    E- doherty jimy -4 to laporte wilson/zaha/wood, 343

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      son to pogba

  25. Bend It like Trippier
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son To:
    a)Lucas M. b)Bilva (3-5-2)
    C)Kompany D)Shaw (4-4-2)
    ???

  26. Manani
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    SOn replacement?

    got 11.8m

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      sterling, pogba

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        mane

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Anything wrong with Sterling? Pogba could be a winner but then he might just stroll around waving goodbye.

  27. No Kane No Gain
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Can Billva still haul if pushed into
    Midfield?!

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Quite unlikely imho.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      is this a poem

  28. FplBerg
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    This is the most unsure I've been on my transfers for quite a while.

    Foster
    Trent Valery Bednarek
    Sterling Salah Mane
    Aguero Jiminez

    Thoughts on the best combo to join them (have 2fts to make it happen)?
    A) Laporte + Redmond
    B) Laporte + Moura
    C) Redmond + Rondon
    D) Moura + Rondon
    E) B.Silva + Rondon

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      e but prefer pogba and long or something

  29. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Foster
    TAA Robbo Laporte Valery
    JWP Mane Sterling Pogba Son*
    Kun
    (Ryan Llorente Jimenez Doherty)

    a) Son > Fraser
    b) Son > Redmond
    c) Son & Llorente > Redmond/Fraser & Wilson (-4)
    d) Son & Jimenez > Redmond/Fraser & Vardy (-4)

  30. The Baby-faced Assassin
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing 40 points in ML, is KdB too risky?

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      YES

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      he's trained in the past 2 days, if it's 40 points or nothing and replacing son, you could do worse

    3. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pass