Scout Picks

Gameweek 38 Scout Picks – Goals expected outside Man City and Liverpool games

We’ve included three attacking players from Liverpool and Manchester City for our final Scout Picks of the season.

The two title-chasing clubs may be the only ones with anything left on the line to play for other than proud, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be goals elsewhere.

Using the Scout Squad submissions by Paul, Neale, Az and Peter, and an analysis of the Fantasy Football Scout members data, we have come up with a XI for you.

For the last time in 2018/19, we line up in a 3-4-3 formation and at a total cost of £82.8m, we are £0.7m inside our budget.

Goalkeeper

Sergio Rico (£4.4m) finds himself in the Scout Picks at just the right time to make sure we didn’t go the whole season without including one of Fulham’s defensive assets. Name-checked by three of our pundits, and selected as the best option by Paul, the Cottagers’ shot-stopper faces a Newcastle attack that has managed just three big chances in their last six away matches, the worst of any team in that time. Meanwhile, no goalkeeper has more saves than Rico in their last six at home.

Defender

Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m) was an easy inclusion for the Gameweek 38 Scout Picks. Manchester City have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League outings and travel to Brighton on the final day of the season. The Seagulls are bottom of the league for shots on target, big chances and goal conversion over their last six at home. Laporte himself has added two attacking returns in the last six Gameweeks and his threat from set pieces is always in his favour.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£5.8m) is once again our chosen representative from the Liverpool defence. Price continues to be on the right-back’s side as well as his attacking potential. Compared to colleagues Andrew Robertson and Virgil van Dijk, the England international has the superior minutes per chance and minutes per chance created in the last six home matches. In that time, Liverpool are in the top two for fewest shots allowed in the box and big chances conceded.

Luke Shaw (£5.0m) completes our three-man defence ahead of Cardiff’s trip to Old Trafford. Manchester United may not be in the best form right now but the Bluebirds have been sufficiently poor on their travels this season that we believe a clean sheet at least is on the cards. In their last six away matches, Cardiff have been in the bottom two for shots inside the box and big chances. Meanwhile, Shaw himself has created more big chances than any other defender in the last six matches.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) should be back in the Liverpool side on Sunday afternoon for the visit of Wolves following his concussion and he comes into Gameweek 38 as the Scout Squad’s unanimous best midfield option. The Egyptian remains on an incredible run of form that has seen him get at least one attacking return in each of his last six matches in a row – his longest stretch without a blank all season. In those fixtures, no player has registered more shots on goal, efforts in the box or shots on target than Salah either. Wolves might have a good record against the top-six but considering they rarely keep clean sheets, Liverpool’s Egyptian star certainly has what it takes to reward his owners in Gameweek 38.

Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) is our chosen Manchester City attacker for the trip to Brighton. In the last six away matches, none of his colleagues has managed more shots in the box or efforts on target, while he also has the best expected goals (xG) score among Manchester City players in that sample. That has translated to 11 attacking returns on the road this season, more than any of his team-mates in 2018/19.

Sadio Mané (£10.3m) has been one of the most reliable attacking options in home matches this season. The Liverpool man has 12 goals in his 11 Premier League outings at Anfield, which have come from some encouraging underlying statistics. In the last four at home he has the second-highest number of big chances among all players, as well as the second-best xG too. Just as is the case with Salah, Wolves’ have asked tough questions away at top-six sides in 2018/19 but are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Nathan Redmond (£5.5m) looks like one of the most appealing budget midfielder for Gameweek 38 as Southampton host Huddersfield on Sunday afternoon. The Terriers are bottom of the league for shots allowed in the box over the last six away matches, as well as for their 18 goals shipped. Meanwhile, Redmond currently ranks fourth for big chances and third for xG out of all players in their last four at home.

Forwards

Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) looks set to enjoy the final day of the 2018/19 season. In the last four home matches, no player has registered shots inside the box, more efforts on target or more big chances. That has yielded five goals and an assist ahead of a meeting with Chelsea at the King Power Stadium. The Blues are still without a clean sheet on the road in 2019, will be without the injured N’Golo Kanté and Antonio Rüdiger while doubts hang over the fitness of Andreas Christensen too. Furthermore, Chelsea come to Leicester just a few days after playing 120 minutes against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League, which will have almost certainly drained them physically and mentally.

After Bournemouth’s troubles on their travels earlier this season, Callum Wilson (£6.8m) has all of a sudden become the king of football on the road in the closing stages of the campaign. In the last four away matches, no fit player has been afforded more big chances or a higher xG score. Furthermore, in such games, Wilson is also second-best for shots on target, so he stands a good chance of converting his opportunities. His Gameweek 38 opponents Crystal Palace are in the bottom four for goal attempts conceded in the box over the last four home matches, are without centre-backs James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho while Scott Dann is now a doubt.

Shane Long (£4.7m) completes our Scout Picks team for Gameweek 38 as another option who gets to enjoy facing that travel sick Huddersfield side. We’ve already covered how vulnerable the Terriers will be when they come to Southampton, as Redmond also has decent points potential this week. Long himself has actually been afforded more big chances than the midfielder in his last four home matches, ranking third best in the whole league. His accuracy of 57% over that period suggests his chances of converted more big opportunities are quite high.

Substitutes

Budget man Yan Valery (£4.1m) gets a place on the bench for Gameweek 38 ahead of Huddersfield’s visit to Southampton. The Saints have not exactly been adept at keeping clean sheets under Ralph Hasenhüttl but their visitors on Sunday remain the division’s joint-lowest scorers on the road in 2018/19.

Like his colleague Wilson, Ryan Fraser (£6.3m) has been impressive on the road of late with six attacking returns in his last Premier League away trips. He will also get to play against a potentially makeshift Crystal Palace side who have struggled at home this season.

Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) is probably one of the few attacking Manchester United options we can be confident will get a start against Cardiff on Sunday afternoon. There is not a great deal of form to go on for the forward but given the Bluebirds are in the bottom three for shots conceded in the box over the last six away matches, he should get plenty of chances.

Community Champion

Representing the community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek 38 is Karan14. He has opted for a 3-4-3 of Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Kompany, Laporte; Redmond, Bernardo Silva, Pogba; Wood, Mitrovic, Zaha

The community member who beats our picks by the biggest margin over the campaign will win a £100 Amazon Voucher and a place in our Contributors and Moderators League for the following season.

It was a win for the Scout Picks over Greyhead in Gameweek 37 by a 46-45 scoreline. fclackless‘s winning margin of 33 points (77-44) in Gameweek 10 is still the current target to beat.

3,966 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jackjones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Help please

    1) Shaw+Mane+Long (-4, lose Trippier)
    2) Laporte+JWP+Vardy (-4, lose Trippier)
    3) JWP+Vardy (keep Trippier)

    1. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      1

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      whats wrong with trippier?

      1. jackjones
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Not sure if he’ll play. He had a shocker in Ajax, sounds like he’s on his way out. Could well be wrong though.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          that's nothing. not worth a hit to get rid of

  2. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone without 3 liverpool already considered origi instead of Long/Ings/Llorente? seeing these names being thrown around

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      its a risk, if you have a good bench its fine

  3. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I’ve been thinking about all the crosses that Palace apparently concede.

    Something doesn’t add up to me as a Palace watcher. I wouldn’t say crosses are a weakness at all - the balls that tend to come in are easy for our CBs - who are much more vulnerable when people run at them - if anything our strength is on the outside.

    Theory (crackpot?)

    Do most of these crosss come from deep unthreatening positions - certainly in the right? No one has bothered AWB much in the last 6 matches. Are they crossing deep before he gets to them?

    A lot of Palace fans were dubious about PvA - think there’s more of an issue on the left but that’s probably because he’s got Zaha and not Townsend in front of him. That’s the side where Palace get hurt - but more I think on the counter rather from crosses per se

    1. CAPA
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Do you have a definite answer on Dann Ping? Thanks

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        No news could be bad news!

        1. CAPA
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          But no news anywhere as far as you know so far!

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Would need to look at stats and watch more Palace to give you a proper answer man

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thinking about paying for stats next season - probably pay anyway for the service here.

        I’m sure stats in the round are meaningful but equally I’m guessing they’re tricky in isolation. In 4 of the last 6 Palace haven’t necessarily played well but neither did they look like conceding many or any to

        Everton
        Newcastle
        Cardiff
        Huddersfield

        1. jackjones
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          They have conceded the most shots in the box in the last six games in the league (joint with Huddersfield)

          1. EMBOLOFAN
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            yes but played arsenal city spurs

        2. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          cardiff xg was 1.88

          1. jackjones
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Ok. They conceded the most shots in the box in the last two games (against Everton and Cardiff)

            1. EMBOLOFAN
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              not a good sign

            2. pingissimus
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Ha but how many from DCL - he’s famously inaccurate

        3. uwepleban
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Check out statsbomb.com, a startup company dealing in heavy duty statistics for football. In their current Articles section, they have an article on fullbacks, in which they discuss Wan-Bissaka. .

          1. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Ty

  4. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Need your help pls..... Stuck

    Get me into the top 1k please boys! Help needed...never finished in top 10k in 10 years... so this is new territory for me.
    2FT

    A) Son and Jota for Pogba and Either Fraser or Redmond
    B) Son and Jimi for Mane and Either Llorente or Long

    My Current team:
    Foster ( Ryan)
    VVD Valery Laporte ( Doherty) ( Dunk)
    Salah Sterling Son* Jota (Camarasa)
    Aguero Rashford Jimi

    1. jackjones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I’d go with B. Another option is Son+Rash to Fraser+Vardy. United are awful. And I don’t think it’s that unlikely that Jota or Jimmy score.

      1. gaurava1216
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I think I favour Fraser over Redmond
        But Long over Llorente

        1. jackjones
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Mane and Long

    2. Sap
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Mane and Long looks promising

  5. as33
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who will score more points: Redmond, Fraser or Wilson?

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I do not possess a crystal ball.

      But here's my best guess: 1) Wilson 5.7 PPM 2) Fraser 4.8 PPM 3) Redmond 3.4 PPM

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        the sudden popularity of redmond is bizarre

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Lol, I have Redmond 😉 (since GW 35)

          - and Wilson -

  6. lordkippe
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Please help. Salah, Martial, Son, Dann & Origi is flagged. Just 1 FT. What should I just take a lot of hits here ?

    Lloris ( Foster )

    Laporte - Valery - Dann ( Doherty, Dunk )

    Salah - Sterling - Son - Martial - Redmond

    Aguero - Origi ( Jimenez )

  7. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son & Richarlison > Pogba & Moura
    Or
    Son & Jimenèz > Moura & Vardy
    Or
    Son & Richarlison > Moura & Alli

  8. oi no professionals
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Pick one:
    A. Valery
    B. Kompany
    C. Bednarek

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      C or B imo. City have the best CS chances this week.

      1. oi no professionals
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        But is Kompany guaranteed a start?

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Guaranteed is a high bar to reach...He's the favorite to start over everyone buy Laporte.

          1. +
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Surely Walker is more likely to start than Kompany?

            1. Yank Revolution
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              I mean center backs. And Walker costs more than Kompany

  9. EMBOLOFAN
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    valery has worse xGI than lindelof. weird

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      even min/xGI is very similar

  10. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Sell Son for:

    A) Pogba

    B) B.Silva

    Is it safer to go with B. Silva because he is certain to start ?
    I have Wilson so don't want Fraser.

    Thanks guys.

    1. Rave_1980
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A out of those two. Think Pogba will pay off this week.

  11. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I've got Son & 3 Southampton players along with 2FT's, which do you prefer

    1
    Bednarek to Walker (own Laporte & Valery)
    Son to Redmond

    2
    Son to Milivojevic
    Jimi to Vardy

    1. Rave_1980
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      2..... Keep the Southampton boys, I think they will get a CS and score well this GW.

  12. Rave_1980
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hi all,

    Any help much appreciated......

    Foster
    TAA Bednarek Laporte
    Son Sterling Jota Salah
    Long Aguero Jiminez

    Ryan Doherty Duffy Elliot

    Planning Son and Jota to Mane and Redmond for a -4.

    Is this the right move, or just move Son to Redmond for no hit?

    Thanks

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Son to pogna is the move imo

  13. OLLY G
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    (A) Pogba & Rashford

    (B) Salah & Fraser

    Thanks.

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      b

    2. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

      1. jackjones
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        B by miles

        1. Sap
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          This

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      b

  14. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Foster
    TAA Robbo Laporte Valery
    JWP Mane Sterling Pogba Son*
    Aguero
    (Ryan Llorente Jimenez Doherty)

    a) Son > Fraser
    b) Son > Redmond
    c) Son & Llorente > Redmond/Fraser & Wilson (-4)
    d) Son & Jimenez > Redmond/Fraser & Vardy (-4)

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      had the same dilemma and ended up doing D redmond

  15. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    DCL replacement?

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Need to see team and how much cash u have

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      not worth doing unless money itb

    3. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Tosun Or Mathis

    4. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Long

    5. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Aguero

      1. Sap
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        This

  16. Killug
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Fraser or Redmond?

  17. The Curse of Falcao
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    G2G or anything worth a hit? Mini league rival has Pogba and is only 11 points behind me. 0FT 0.8 ITB

    Foster
    Doherty Valery Laporte Robertson
    Sterling Redmond Salah Mane
    Aguero Jimenez

    Ryan|Duffy|Hojbjerg|Calvert-Lewin

  18. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Doing my head in

    Jiménez >> Wilson / Rashford worth it for a hit?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no

    3. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I would say yes..

  19. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Good lord I’ve changed the armband from Salah to Aguero and back again about 15 times

    1. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Don’t you have Raz?

      1. Gooner Kebab
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        would you captain Raz?

      2. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        No, wouldnt captain him if I did

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      just pick one and be done with it they all have broadly similar expectations

    3. Burger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Both will blank so I'd not fret over it too much longer.

    4. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Im going Kun. Can easily see an early sub for Salah

      1. The Ejiptian King
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, Kun never gets subbed early.

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Of course, yes, he does, but this week is a lil different:
          1) CL match for Pool, not for City
          2) Likely need Kun til the end of match unless theyre destroying their opponent.
          3) Salah's concussion was real

          1. EMBOLOFAN
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            salahs concussion wasnt real

            1. Yank Revolution
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 10 months ago

              Au contrere!

              "It's concussion so he wouldn't be allowed to play," Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp told reporters Monday. "We cannot do it."

  20. Lets jump straight into it.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Origi is £5.0m, just sayin'

  21. shiffo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Hey guys. Mane + Holjberg or Fraser + Robbo? Already have Salah and TAA. Thanks!

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      a given uncertainty over the availability of robertson

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        mctominay better option than hoj imo

        1. shiffo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Thanks. Agree but already have Holj just wouldn’t play him under option b.

          1. EMBOLOFAN
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            gotcha

  22. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Best transfer:

    A) Jimenez > Zaha

    B) Son > Pogba

    Thanks guys.

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  23. Catsandhats
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son to:

    A) Moura
    B) Eriksen
    C) Fraser
    D) sigurdson

    1. shiffo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Fraser.

  24. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Outside City and Liverpool defenders, is Shaw the only other defender worth going for this week?

    (I have 3 Saints also)

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      yes

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thx

  25. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who to play between...

    1) Lloris // Foster

    2) Bednarek // Jota

    Please help...cheers

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      lloris and bed

  26. Udo
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I could do with a bit advice on how to use my FT on my team, suggestions are appreciated!
    My team: Kepa, (Ryan), Valery, Young, Laporte, VVD, (Rose), Hazard, Mane (c), Pogba, DSilva, (Jota), Rash, Jimi, (Llorente)

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      rose to kompany, bench jim

  27. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    g2g? or bench babel for jota or doherty?

    foster
    robbo, valery, TAA
    redmond, mane, babel, sterling
    aguero, vardy (c), wilson

    ryan, jota, doherty, duffy

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      bizarre captaincy choice

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        who would you go for aguero, sterling or mane?

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          any of them over vardy and i own him

  28. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Gray + Jota -> Wilson + Redmond (-4)?

    Means I bench Jimmy

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      no

    2. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  29. el polako
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Wood or Liecester midfielder (Tielemans\Maddison) ?

    Thinking about treating myself to a Woody on the last day of the season.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      nothing between all 3 options, good options imo

  30. columbo
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Rashford or Vardy please lads? Underlying stats say Vardy but bookies favour Rashford.. Thanks!

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      i'd rather have rash

      1. columbo
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Ta mate

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          and i have vardy 🙂