Members

A Fantasy manager’s guide to expected goals (xG)

Fantasy managers who sign up as a Member to our website get access to a whole host of player and team information.

Among the underlying statistics on offer is expected goal (xG) data, which many will be familiar with already.

For the uninitiated, xG is the measure of a quality of a shot based on criteria such as proximity of goal and angle of attempt.

For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

Along the same lines, expected assist (xA) data calculates the quality of chance being created.

Expected goal data doesn’t predict when goals will be scored, of course, and isn’t a crystal ball for the future – rather, it is a measure of chances created in the past.

Nevertheless, many find xG data useful.

Fantasy managers can use the information to see which players are consistently being presented with – or providing – high-quality opportunities, which in turn can be helpful when making future team selections.

Looking at the calibre of opportunity, rather than just an overall number of shots on goal or chances created, is often key.

‘Big chances’ – a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score – are a decent barometer of this.

56.5% of the 1,072 goals scored in the Premier League last season were deemed big chances.

Of the 1,532 such gilt-edged opportunities created, 606 were scored – a conversion rate of 39.6%.

Site user Bowstring the Carp has produced an excellent, in-depth guide to xG in his recent Community article, which goes into the finer details.

He followed this piece up with a look at the pros and cons of xG, which is well worth a read to learn about its overall usefulness and limitations.

The rest of this article will be dedicated to looking at the xG data available in our Members’ Area, drawing attention to the players who had significant expected goal involvement in 2018/19 and those who were under/overachieving based on their actual output.

470 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gringo Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Good morning guys

    If City sign Cancelo do you think that he'll be a good FPL asset?

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I’d be wary of rotation with Walker.

    2. stephenpower130
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Laporte looks like the only City defender who you can trust that won’t be rotated.

      1. Another Hoops
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        IMO if you're going safe with City defence you may as well just go Ederson.

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          This.

          I like Laporte, but realistically all he is going to offer is the same CS potential as Ederson.

          For what his price is likely to be I think I'd want a defender whose on set pieces so is going to get a decent amount of assists.

          1. OLDHERMAN
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            +1

  2. stephenpower130
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Does anyone have any idea on the official launch date? Going off last year it will probably be Sunday the 7th of July.

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      PFL towers launching the game on a Sunday! Nah I can't see them doing that, prob will launch sometime during the week commencing the 8th of July do.

    2. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      4am on the 10th

  3. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Interesting indeed that Mane and Ward-Prowse over-achieved in terms of goals scored, but had the opposite ‘luck’ when it came to assists, despite creating many chances. Perhaps a factor in this is seeing teammates squander good chances and deciding to have a go at goal themselves a

    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah good point.

    2. Parm
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      This is an absolutely nothing point.

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Mane overachieved with goals last season (although he underachieved for assists). The question is ... will he regress to the norm next season? That's what usually happens but the very best players are capable of overachieving their xG stats and so there is a chance he could do the same again.

      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Mané's year-on-year xG performance is rather choppy.

        (All stats below exclude penalties, PL only)

        18-19 - LIV - 22 goals, 16.76 xG
        17-18 - LIV - 10 goals, 11.52 xG
        16-17 - LIV - 13 goals, 9.48 xG
        15-16 - SOU - 11 goals, 11.75 xG
        14-15 - SOU - 10 goals, 8.55 xG

        14-19 - LIV/SOU - 66 goals, 58.06 xG.

        As the article mentions, Mané didn't score from outside the box, which is a tribute to how good a finisher he's become and the role he plays for Liverpool. In fact he's only scored one goal from outside the box in his PL career, lobbing a backtracking Szczesny from an acute angle for Southampton in the infamous 'Szczesny smoking a fag in the showers' game that pretty much ended his Arsenal career.
        Back to Mané, his finishing was very diverse with 11 goals from his right foot, 5 from his left foot and 6 in the air, a massive improvement considering he only scored 2 headers in the previous 4 years. He is probably one of very few triple threat finishers in the league.
        So he's a genuine threat regardless of the service but that also improved last year. Salah's underlying numbers suggested he was more creative than in 17/18 whilst TAA/Robertson were given full seasons in very attacking roles and their service provided a fair few shot assists. Trent's pinpoint crossing in particular aiding Mané's increased aerial threat whilst Robertson's byline cutbacks added plenty of opportunities. He also avoided injury(other than his fingers) which is another bonus compared to the previous couple of years.

        TL;DR So he's a 27yo(arguably prime years), fit, a really good player in a really good team. I say 20 goals again next year.

        1. Eytexi
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Very well said. For me it's a case of whether I have him as well as Salah or not. Reckon there's an argument for having him instead though?

          1. Parm
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Maybe, although that seems like more of a 'cover' move than anything. Salah for me is almost untouchable.

            In his last 5 seasons he has 85 goals from 70.22 xG. His performance last year 19 goals from 19.5 xG was his worst(!) in that period. He's only coming back with even more next season.

            1. Eytexi
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              Agreed, and clearly has the stats to back it up. Salah it is.

          2. Jaws
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Mane scored 155 FPL points in home games, more than any other player. My take is buy Salah if you captain him home & away or buy Mane if you only captain him at home, which means you need another top captain pick to alternate with Mane's captaincy.

        2. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Sorry for the late reply. Great research and lots of great points. I always suspected that Mane was a fox in the box but never to this extent.

          I think Tom from WGTA made a good point recently. Mane has now taken that step up to be someone you can rely on for the captaincy.

    4. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      It could just be that their own goal conversion rates are better than for the average player given the same chances, but that either the quality of their passes setting up chances for their team mates are below average or the conversion rates of the team-mates for whom they set up these chances are below average.

      If shooting for goal rather than setting up a chance for a team mate increases the probability of a goal being scored then they are doing the right thing - but if the reverse is true then they aren't.

      They may be over or under performing compared to average players in the same situations, but it doesn't always follow that the reason for their apparent over or under achievement is because of luck or short term randomness.

  4. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    PAK vs SA: Pakistan won the toss and will bat first.

  5. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Is the game normally launched when the first friendlies are played? By definition that would suggest we’re a couple of weeks away.

    1. Richd
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Second week of July seems likely based on previous seasons.

  6. kime67
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Shouldnt josh king be midfielder since he plays cam?

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Whats this for? England dont have internationals this summer

      1. Majestic Chanka
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Is this a meme?

        The Josh King English thing, I was confused by WGTA having him in their All England XI for last season.

  7. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Who do you think is a better GK to set and forget forget until the Xmas fixtures?

    A) Foster

    B) Fabianski

    1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Close but Fab for me!! Save points magnet!!

  8. Richd
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    This a great article !

    Football stats are going to incredible heights now.

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Slurpw

      1. Richd
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        I’m Ronnie pickerin

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      +1 Enjoyed this one.

    3. Skonto Rigga
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Thank you very much! Good to hear 🙂

  9. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Assuming players aren't sold, which is the best two strikers to start with do you reckon?

    a) Kane and Arnie

    b) Vardy and Auba

    1. Gringo Kid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Vardy and Kane

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I’ll consider Kun, a bou striker and then another budget

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Rather have Sterling than Kun, in all honesty.

        Not sure the value is there so much in premium strikers anymore.

    3. Supersonic Marv'
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero and Jiminez.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Kun and Wilson

        1. cravencottage
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          This

          1. Supersonic Marv'
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            is

    4. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Vardy and Wilson

    5. Majestic Chanka
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I may go Vardy and King but Vardy more pricey than my usual.

      DCL and Ings are also in consideration.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Expect to start the season with 3 cheaper forwards

        Money in defence and mid

    6. Queenofthestoneage
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Jimenez + Wilson

    7. firetog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      If they are priced at around 8 and 7 I’m considering a Bournemouth double up. Wilson and king. Low priced with good fixtures.

  10. Differential C (Mark)
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    RMT

    Pickford 4.0
    TAA Robertson Laporte Coleman 4.0
    Mane Sterling KdB Westwood Hojbjerg
    Vardy Sharp Pukki

    5.0/4.0
    6.5/7.0/6.5/5.5/4.0
    12/11/9.0/4.5/4.5
    9.5/5.5/5.5

    Pukki becomes Adams if he makes the switch to Saints. Siggy become KdB if he is 9.0 as well.

    1. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      It is RMIT at this time of year. 😉

      Rate My Imaginary Team.

      1. Differential C (Mark)
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Hey, the off season has been really rough on me! XD

    2. Another Hoops
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I think we'll be very lucky to get Sterling for 11 pal.

    3. CityWok
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I'd say Pickford could be 5.5

    4. Majestic Chanka
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I was just listening to the Numb Meet the Manager and he said he had a terrible start to the season by trying to squeeze in 4 heavy hitters.

      Westwood & Hojbjerg will be more than £4.5m after their attacking returns last year. I reckon Pukki’s reputation could see him £6/£6.5m

      Your team does look good but it’ll be very inflexible. What’s worrying about that is I was thinking of a very similar team myself! 🙂

      1. Differential C (Mark)
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Oh, Im a huge proponent of the early WC. Once I see which players and gold and which are dud, I'll just do it over again t with the WC. Inflexibilty is the name of the game at the start.
        Could defo see Hoj and West at higher than 4.5. Pukki should be 6 max, anything more is madness.

  11. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    What a brilliant article. Definitely the best we've had in a while.

    Unless Mark, David W or Paul pick up a pen again, Neale is - for me - FFS's best writer by a country mile.

    1. Another Hoops
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Also love watching his team news videos. Makes life so much easier.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Neale's analysis of press conferences and his team news line ups are genuinely second to none.

        1. Skonto Rigga
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks very much, both!

          FFScout's, number four,
          FFScout's, FFScout's number four
          (I'll more than settle for that)

    2. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      lol

  12. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    I didnt find the members area too useful two seasons ago and didnt upgrade to member last season. Giving it another shot this season as there seems to be even more focus on stats in the articles going forward. And 12 quid is a small investment.

    1. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah, more members articles last year than the year previous and we're going for it again this year.

      Would be good to get you and a few others involved in some Members Only Hot Topics discussing members data

  13. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    So white Everton’s great fixtures and there amazing amount of clean sheet last 11 games of last season anyone tripling up at the start??
    A- Digne and Coleman and one of Siggy/Rich
    Or
    B- Siggy and Rich and one of Digne/Coleman
    Sound like a decent idea?

    1. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I think it will be very hard to get the money to triple up unless you forego either the top defenders like TAA, Robbo, Laporte, or one of the premium mids (Sterling/Salah).

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah good point well made maybe Pickford becomes a set and forget option and then one of Siggy or Richarlison

    2. Another Hoops
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Depends on pre season but I'm going to be keeping my eye out on DCL. If I go 3 cheap up top he may be one I include with Siggy and then Digne/ Coleman depending on budget restraints.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Another great idea there mate, I think with Digne pretty likely to be 6.0 it could me we see a lot of teams with Coleman in who should inevitably 0.5 cheaper or more

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          I think Digne is better value than Coleman, to be honest.

          Digne is on set pieces and is more likely to score goals than Coleman, who will get a few assists and that's pretty much it.

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            An interesting look at their records in more detail:

            https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/20384669

            I too was of the opinion that Digne was a slam dunk over Coleman - but Coleman has actually marginally outscored him (and from less starts) since the turn of the year

            2019 FPL performance (GW21-38):
            - Coleman 85 points / 14 starts
            - Digne 84 points / 16 starts

            Could be coincidental but equally looks correlated with Coleman’s gradual recovery of his former self after the leg break - double up is very interesting imo, assuming they’re kindly priced

            1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              It’s definitely is!! Would I be right in thinking is will be like this?..
              Digne 6.0
              Coleman 5.5
              ??

              1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                4 years, 9 months ago

                Would make Sense with Digne being on set pieces ?

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • 14 Years
                  4 years, 9 months ago

                  I think those prices look about correct - intuitively it “feels” right to have Digne 0.5 more expensive given his total season points vs. Coleman and those priceless set piece duties

                  But when you scratch into their records in a bit more detail, Coleman has easily been keeping pace and even exceeding him in 2019, and when you look at some of the other ancillary factors - Coleman’s injury, Everton’s improving form, and also Morgan Scneiderlin’s presence in the side - it gets very interesting and really hints at a potential double up scenario for me given the fixtures

                  That being said - all this is very dependent on Gueye staying - they’re a different beast defensively with him in the team - 13 goals conceded in the 5 games he missed doesn’t even begin to tell the story of how important he is to Everton defensively (and probably overall as a team in fairness)

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Double up is interesting me for sure - Digne & Coleman are both towards the top of my (pre- price release) shopping list

      Equally Siggy and Rich aren’t featuring on it currently as I’m assuming Rich 8.0+ & Siggy 8.5+ so not planning on tripling currently

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Definitely thinking double defensive cover for me, those prices for Siggy and Rich look about how they will be put so maybe more research for who else will be around that price point and maybe better value!! Lots to ponder!!

    4. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Don't think everton's fixtures are that great. Palace, wolves, bou and watford not easy games at all

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        I actually don't mind their fixtures - perhaps somewhat counter-intuitively Palace away was a plum fixture last season for away defences - Palace bizarrely had the worst home goals scored record in the league (bar Huddersfield) with only 19 scored in 19 games, worse even than Fulham & Cardiff (!)

        I agree the home Watford game could always be tricky, as could Villa away, and Wolves home (Wolves Europa League qualifying etc not withstanding) - they could all be tricky games

        But if Gueye stays Everton have shown towards the end of the year that they're as capable as anyone in the league at keeping cleansheets (8 in 10 from 28-37 is Man City/Liverpool/1990's AC Milan-esque levels of defensive organisation)

        Well worth a punt imo - but equally it could go belly up

        1. Emiliano Sala
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          I may only buy pickford if 5.0

        2. Queenofthestoneage
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Reckon Coleman will play +35 PL games like Digne did last season? That's a dealbreaker for me.

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            His fitness is a (relative) caveat - the injury he suffered was particularly horrific, and I'm not a physio, but I'd imagine it's the type that has all sorts of knock on impacts given the extended recovery & rehabilitation that increase the risk of injuries in other areas - and probably goes a long way to explaining why he failed to start 9 games, versus Digne failing to start 5 (1 of which was a suspension)

            But as the season wore on, and in 2019 in particular, it still didn't hold him back from keeping up with Digne on FPL points and even marginally exceeding him, which is hugely encouraging

  14. Another Hoops
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Hello all, I hope you're all enjoying your summer. Personally I miss FPL so much its getting annoying!

    QQ; I wanted to post it before all the RMT's come in (including mine) but we want to spice up our ML this year. Does anyone have any good ideas?

    - Manager of the Month
    - Main league and then a separate mini leagues every 9 games
    - Highest GW score, for the week and the season
    - Losing £ for taking hits
    - Head to Head Leagues
    - Picking each others captains

    Any suggestions would be more than welcome.

    1. Supersonic Marv'
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Horrific forfeit for last place will spice things up a bit.

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Yea this is the best way to keep everyone interested until the end.

        1. Another Hoops
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Appreciate the suggestion. Last place pays double atm (which isn't horrific) but something. What about those mid-tier guys who are not winning it and not finishing bottom though. Last year it was pretty much over by Easter, it just got a little stale and despite winning the league me and a lot of the others lost interest towards the end.

          1. mic_check12
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Anyone scoring under X in a week pays the highest weekly scorer something. Under 40 and a fiver maybe

    2. Helder's Left Foot
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      We introduced MOTM in our mini league this year. We had 27 teams in it, all pay £20 up front, so I put aside £100 of the total pot for £10 per month MOTM, and still had a good pot of winnings for top 7 come end of the season.

      It worked really well, a few MOTM were not the usual suspects, so I will be keeping it in place for this season.

  15. Differential C (Mark)
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Isn't it weird that we are completely fine calling 18/19 "last season" but not quite ready to call 19/20 "this season".

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      No

      1. NIKO.
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Lol

    2. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Not really as 18/19 season has ended and 19/20 game has not been released yet.

      What is weird though is people posting RMTs for the 19/20 game without knowing prices and player positions. 😉

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Not weird but definitely pointless. We will have loads of tinkering time when the game opens. At least wait until FPL throw a few price scraps to whet the minions appetites.

        1. Nightcrawler
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Exactly

      2. PDM TOP 1,000 any Season Le…
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        RMIT pre prices has become the norm over the seasons .

      3. Differential C (Mark)
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Touche! XD

  16. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Not sure Duggan deserves to start here

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Stanway and Mead both unlucky

  17. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Generally speaking; have you had more success with a ‘set and forget’ GK or a rotating pair?

    1. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Set and forget for me. Two seasons ago did loads of changing and it only resulted in missing the big hauls of Fabianski and whoever else I owned. Last season worked very well with set and forget Fabianski.

  18. Queenofthestoneage
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/06/13/a-guide-to-fpl-fixture-rotation-ahead-of-2019-20/

    Set and forget for me but I am considering Henderson and hoping he will turn out this seasons Etheridge.

  19. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Cameroon have clearly not practiced defending free kicks in the box. Though who has?

  20. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Justice. Probably wasn’t a back pass but the dirty bitch gobbed on Duggan’s arm and the ref ignored her complaints

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Scotland got a harsh deal with the group whipping boy Argentina turning out to be very very hard to break down. How Cameroon got through I dont know, but it really does seem like the groups werent balanced.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Scotland managed to score 3 against them. If only they didn't concede 3, they would have qualified.

  21. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Can someone clarify whether these players still play for their clubs?

    Crouch at Burnley

    Clyne at Bournemouth

    Success at Watford

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Google is your friend

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      y, n, y

  22. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    VAR time

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Goal awarded.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        2-0 England. Advantage of VAR.

  23. Ritchie reclassified?
    Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Ok - so ahead of the new season it would be fair to say the last thing we FPL managers need is yet another potentially lethal defensive asset to be added to a pool dangerously close to overflowing - right?? (Already we have TAA, Robbo, VVD, Laporte, Digne, with Zinchenko, Mendy, Coleman, Gomez potentially hot on their heels)

    And it would be equally fair to say, if not even more so, that the last thing we denizens of the summer deadzone need is YET ANOTHER post from that god-awful Maximus Bonimus Pointimus - right??

    Unfortunately - WRONG!! 🙂 And on both counts!! 🙂

    Well - potentially wrong at least - but either way, many of you will be aware of the scurrilous rumours periodically circulating the DZ that FPL may be set to throw us a bone (*Not THAT type of bone, before certain posters start to get too excited 😉 ) by reclassifying Newcastle’s Matt Ritchie to be a defender

    So is this something we should be excited about? My own initial thought was ''yes, for sure'' (given his set piece threat and Benitez's love of a solid defensive unit) but obviously there would be several important stars that would need to align to make him a viable FPL asset - so as a quick check it would be interesting to just crudely adjust his points from last season - and hope that the maths are correct 🙂

    Note: On bps we'll just notionally/conservatively increase by +10 - given that he either notched an attacking return or kept a cleansheet in 17 of his 35 games last season, but only got bps in 4 of those - as a defender you'd imagine that would increase quite substantially

    Matt Ritchie - 2018/19 points - 110 - adjusted for:

    2 Goals: +2
    8 Assists: +0
    10 Clean Sheets: +30
    10 Baps: +10
    Games where >2 goals conceded: -12

    = 2018/19 estimated adjusted points: ~140 - which would put him in & around the PVA/Doherty bracket on points, not quite up with the aforementioned superstars TAA, VVD, Robbo etc - but certainly not disgraceful either

    But to be fair, in seeing that type of output my early optimism has already taken something of a knock - before we come to as mentioned above, the several other stars that need to similarly align in order for him to be an option:

    1. The actual positional Reclass - Huge credit to @Axle11 here who in a previous hot topic sourced some very interesting articles on similar examples of positional reclasses (i.e. Victor Moses) and how Ritchie operating as a left wingback from GW16 onwards seems to tick all the right the boxes to get a reclass this year (https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/06/11/jota-with-plenty-to-prove-as-an-fpl-asset-after-villa-move/?hc_page=1&hc_sort_by=comment_date#hc_comment_20382707) @Axle11 - we salute you [*Salutes*]

    2. The Price Tag - Given his dominant role on set pieces, Ritchie actually started last year as a 6.0 mid, and so may unfortunately be lumbered with a similarly high price as a defender - which will do him no favours considering the competition he will have in that bracket mentioned earlier & may be a big deterrent

    3. The Fixtures - A quick glance at the ticker shows a first 5 for Newcastle that includes Arsenal (''But that's not tough!''), Spurs, Liverpool, as well as away to newly promoted Norwich, none of which may have ''easy clean sheet'' written all over them... and it takes a while for things to improve with Leicester, Man Utd, and Chelsea in the following 4 - again all games that individually, Newcastle are more than capable of getting results from - but accumulated do look semi-intimidating from a defensive perspective

    4. Newcastle Management - Any changes could possibly work both ways - if Benitez leaves will The Toon Army be as solid defensively? Possibly or possibly not... Or alternatively if he leaves will Ritchie get a more attacking role thus turning him into the holy grail of FPL - a set piece taking wide midfielder/winger classified as a defender? Who Knows...

    So lots of ifs & buts as per usual - however, with all that said - and putting the unknowns temporarily to one side - hypothetically, if you did happen to go out and look towards the evening sky sometime in mid-July, and if you did happen to see that somewhere up there those aforementioned stars were aligning into what looked like an eerily Matt Ritchie-shaped constellation - what would your thoughts be? (Obviously aside from “OMG I need to call the planetarium” 🙂 )

    Personally I think he could turn out to be a useful FPL asset this season at times, even an outright bargain with the right price-tag/form/fixtures albeit one for whom it may be prudent to allow a few of those tough-ish opening fixtures to work their way out of the system... but then again with set piece duties does he become effectively fixture proof? It will certainly be an interesting one to watch imo

    TLDR: Ritchie could be good this year

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Put your boner away.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        You're imagining things - things that you (potentially) shouldn't be imagining 😉

    2. Queenofthestoneage
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      VVD, TAA, Robo, Laporte, Digne

      you're welcome

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        TAA - Check
        Robbo - Check
        Digne - Check
        Laporte - probably a check - but if Henderson doesn't get the Sheff Utd move - then Ederson may be prefferred
        VVD - may be a stretch as Mo is high on the shopping list
        Coleman - Also looks to be a check
        Ritchie as a defender? - Maybe not early doors, but there could be a time & a place...

    3. NIKO.
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Not long enough 😀

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Someone has to test the boundaries of the post limit 😉

        1. NIKO.
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Good effort lol

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            TY 🙂 I think can handle more though - brewing an extended post mortem of DGW34 - tentatively entitled

            ''Shane Duffy - you were supposed to be The Chosen One''

          2. NIKO.
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            x-D

    4. George Sillett
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Somebody has very much become paranoid.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Ah look who it is, welcome friend - we are not worthy of this constructive and interesting comment, but we shall receive it gratefully nonetheless 🙂

        How is your journey of self-discovery progressing? Are you making progress on coming to terms with your newfound passion? We never did finish our conversation 😉 https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/06/21/what-moussa-djenepo-could-offer-fpl-managers-at-southampton/?hc_page=1&hc_sort_by=comment_date#hc_comment_20385445

        1. George Sillett
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          I have been rather optimistic in hoping that you could possibly be engaged in meaningful debate when actually you are unreceptive to anyone who voices an opinion different to yours.
          You can be credited with having the intelligence to side track conversations thus avoiding the fundamental issue. And yes you are discussed elsewhere . I will leave it with you to decide for yourself what the overall concensus of opinion is.
          I will in future not engage in debate with you as it is futile.
          No doubt as always you will have the last word but then we are all used to that anyway.

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Dear friend, I'm still sensing some frustration & hostility emanating from this post - if you are conflicted, or are struggling to repress these thoughts of boners that seemed to dominate your conscious of late - for fear of reprisal or judgement, then I once again council you - fear not - for as we have already discussed - this is a safe place, and we are a tolerant and liberal forum, there is no judgement here 🙂

            Admittedly, whilst we would perhaps prefer you share your interest in other topics such as FPL, when you are ready we will accept you with open arms for who you are 🙂

            Again, wishing you good fortune on your journey friend 🙂

            Best 🙂

    5. Parm
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Paul Dummett simply wouldn't allow it. Sorry.

    6. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I haven't read this but why hasn't it been Hulked yet? I thought long post were automatically Hulked?

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        The TDLR will help in times of time pressure and/or attention deficit

        TLDR: Ritchie could be good this year

        1. Queenofthestoneage
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Everone is picking on you right now for being too active and weathering your opinion. F those guys. Just keep spreading your opinions and knowledge. We who are about to die salute you!

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            You are too kind sir - but thank you nonetheless 🙂

          2. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Not everyone 😉

      2. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Are you going to read it ?
        If so can you give me the jist?

        1. Supersonic Marv'
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          It is an in depth analysis of the comparative wing spans of African and European swallows.

          1. Majestic Chanka
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Laden or unladen?

            1. Supersonic Marv'
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              Carrying a coconut.

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • 14 Years
                4 years, 9 months ago

                🙂 Hang on are you saying Coconuts migrate?!

    7. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Wouldn't be surprised if he's a midfielder in FPL again.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Originally I was totally in the same space - but the couple of articles linked above that @Axle11 kindly was able to dig up seem to suggest there's a reasonable if not strong chance of a reclass based on the amount of time he spent at LB & LWB from GW16 onwards

        Granted, in a way if he is a midfielder, it's one less problem from an FPL selection perspective - and equally the tough early fixtures will surely have people thinking twice even if he is reclassed

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          18 game as LB, 17 games as a mid.
          Played in defence more to necessity and unlikely to this season.

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            It is interesting to note that his positional record is somewhat front end loaded:

            GW1 - 12: 11 Starts (all at RM)
            GW13 - 38: 24 Starts (18x LB, 6x LM/RM)

            Newcastle's pre-price release transfer activity may be key - as he certainly seemed to spend the vast majority of his time positionally in defence in the second two thirds of the season - if a high profile left back is not signed there looks to be quite reasonable grounds for the positional reclass.

            There is also something close to a precedent in terms of the Moses 16/17 data, which is encouraging

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              More about formation, 4 at back means Ritchie attacking, 3 or 5 at back mean Ritchie defending. FPL will be open before those transfers are made so it's all a guess. Players like Alonso in a 3 or 5 stay as mids. Only a factor in 4 at the back.

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • 14 Years
                4 years, 9 months ago

                The transfer timing piece could inadvertently force their hands however if no left back is signed or agreed prior to game opening - given that as the season progressed he was utilised more & more as a defender and the data endorses that he visibly finished as their left sided defensive player in 18 of their last 24, 16 of their last 21, 8 of their last 11, 6 of their last 7 etc

                When I think of Matt Ritchie, I've always thought ''Midfielder'' from habit, but when you look at the data for the final two thirds of the season it says ''Defender''... will just depend on how much weight FPL attach to the data in the final two thirds of the season, vs. the first third of the season, and versus his prior seasons (his prior seasons likely much less of a factor)

                1. TorresMagic™
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  4 years, 9 months ago

                  Made a mistake above, more about defenders playing higher in 3 or 5 being defenders over mids like Alonso and those in 4 as mids. After GW12, Newcastle only played 4 at the back once. It's a 50/50 on his position as Dummett played CB a lot due to injuries. Ritchie as a defender would make FPL better but the 5.5m price, not as much.

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • 14 Years
                    4 years, 9 months ago

                    It's hard to guage the odds - had the timing been reversed (i.e. Ritchie starting the season more defensively, then moving back to midfield) I think it would perhaps be moot and there'd be much less of a case

                    But I do think the odds may lean a little further in favour of the reclass given the weighting of his defensive exploits towards the final two thirds of the season, rather than the first third, and the expected absence of a pre-FPL-opening high profile left sided defensive player....

                    It will be interesting to observe what decision FPL come to - but those opening fixtures certainly ain't super on paper either way

    8. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Maybe the TLDR can just be renamed to DR?

      Honestly mate you are a good bloke but give it a rest. Who tf cares about Matt Ritchie.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Hear here, plus one from me (*Upvotes*)

      2. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Is there anything better to talk about than Ritchie right now though 😀

    9. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Interesting read MBP. To be of value I'd say he'll need to be a defender at 5.0, could be but I doubt we'd get both.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        TY Netley - I agree as a 5.0 defender he'd be very interesting, and at a higher price point he probably becomes one to file away for a later time in the season when newcastle's fixtures soften.

        In his favour, he should have an extremely high ceiling as a defender in most individual games though, when you take his set piece duties into account

    10. Business Cat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Is this any more exciting than when Milner was OOP in midfield for Liverpool the season after playing leftback before Robertson arrived?

      Doubt I'll be looking much beyond Liverpool, City and Everton for the GW1 defence

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        I think the first question is potentially difficult to answer - in that (arguably) the degree to which a population finds a situation exciting may be almost too subjective to measure accurately...

        For my money i’d wager that for some people it may be more exciting, for some it may be less exciting, and for some it may not even cross their minds - thus it may be difficult to find a categorically right & wrong answer

        I am in agreement with you though in terms of the view of the teams from which an optimal GW1 defence may be derived - my own personal idea of a GW1 defence includes (but is possibly not limited to) four attacking fullbacks all currently based on Merseyside 😉

    11. Skonto Rigga
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Nice read, MBP.

      I'd written a bit about Ritchie too (https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/05/29/fpl-players-who-could-change-position-in-2019-20/) and, for consistency's sake, he ought to be reclassified given that FPL have generally looked back at the season just gone (rather than anticipating what might happen in the season to come) when making decisions on player position.

      He may well be OOP but I'll be staying well clear initially, given fixtures/Benitez probably leaving/toxic atmosphere mounting.

      I expect there'll be a drop-off in clean sheets if Rafa does walk as I can't see his successor getting 11 shut-outs out of the likes of Manquillo/Dummett, who have been made to look way better than Championship-level by their manager (having grown up with the likes of Alessandro Pistone, Claudio Cacapa and Peter Ramage, it really is a shock to the system to watch a defence this competent).

      He'll probably end up, then, being Holebas + £0.5/1.0m: assist potential from set plays, but clean sheets drying up. Ritchie's first in line for penalties at NUFC, mind, so that's to his advantage.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Thx Skonto - good to hear from a Newcastle fan on some of those key issues relating to Ritchie.

        The heat maps in the article definitely support/mirror the transfermarket.com positional data in terms of Ritchie’s conversion to WB/FB from GW13 onwards & I think you hit the nail on the proverbial head in terms of the reclass:

        “Wing-backs would surely have to be treated uniformly, though, and there seems little chance of DeAndre Yedlin (£4.5m) or Yan Valery (£4.1m) being moved up a position in FPL because of their club’s formations.”

        That being said, I was a little underwhelmed by his “adjusted” score from last season being only around 140, he’d need an uptick across CS, Goals & assists to get that up towards the 160/170 mark where people start to sit up & take note. That being said, if he is reclassed, there are going to be times next season when he posts some huge individualscores I feel - possibly closely tied to newcastle’s Penalty awards as you rightly point out

        P.s. I needed to renew my membership & your article was a timely trigger to do so - a superb read 🙂

    12. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Can we get an updated version of this now that Rafa has left? Perhaps one on what this all means under all the potential managers that could join.

      1. George Sillett
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Lionel Ritchie an option ?

      2. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        He needs to wait for the new manager to come in and write an article.

      3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Got y’all covered good buddies - check out point #4 😉

  24. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    If you can keep your head whilst those around you are losing theirs

  25. GREEN IS GOOD
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    According to Cameroon, the offside rule is now racist.

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Fair goal for sure.

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        I see what you did there.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          White did score.

          1. GREEN IS GOOD
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            Inherently racist name. Too white.

  26. Gringo Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Brighton signs Belgian striker Leandro Trossard

    Decent addition

    1. CityWok
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Apparently he can play as a winger or a 2nd striker. Interesting to see if he classified as a MID or FOR in FPL.

  27. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Cameroon will get in big trouble for this. Ridiculous

    1. GREEN IS GOOD
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      They're crying. Get the tissues out.

    2. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      I hope not, it looks largely like they just dont know the rules of football. Shouldnt be punished for that. Should be supported.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        Refusing to play is bringing the game in disrepute.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          into*

    3. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      Hope England can get a few more here. Cameroon behaving poorly IMO.

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        In your opinion? 😀

        1. GREEN IS GOOD
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          Is it normal for a team to refuse to play for several minutes?

          1. Wild Rover
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            It’s like saying ‘Messi is world class imo’

            1. GREEN IS GOOD
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              Ah sorry

  28. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Nice goal

  29. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    3-0 England

  30. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 9 months ago

    Greenwood on 12pts pre baps.

    1. Parm
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      ^ Sunday GW1 17:21pm after Rashford is ruled out and Lukaku sold

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 9 months ago

        I'm hoping this is his breakout season. Ole likes to rotate so he'll get his chances....

        1. Parm
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 9 months ago

          We'll see what sort of state the squad is in before the season starts but it looks bleak. What with the lack of signings so far and plenty of contract renewals to players who aren't good enough. Ole won't last the season at this rate.

          1. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 9 months ago

            There are rumours he's been given £100m to spend. Which considering how much rebuilding the squad needs, isn't enough really. Still no sign of a RB, CB, CM, who are all desperately needed. Apparently Ole needs to offload players before he can spend more, but who would want to take on Sanchez's wages?!

            1. Parm
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 9 months ago

              Not enough really, even if you consider Lukaku will be a major sale. Just falling further behind City/Liverpool at this rate.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 9 months ago

      And Houghton