Pro Pundits

What Abraham must add to his game as I prepare to leave ‘Pukki Party’

My big dilemma this week was what to do with Teemu Pukki (£7.1m). Having shown up ‘fashionably late’ to the Norwich striker’s party in Gameweek 4, there was a sense that I’d already missed most of the good stuff and, now, it was a case of either waiting to see if there’d be a big Finnish finish or ‘remembering that I’d left the stove on’, and making a quick getaway.

I’m not fully convinced that the Pukki party is genuinely over but Norwich look worryingly out of form and it will always be a concern as to whether they can maintain their attacking output now the initial exuberance of their opening matches is out of the way, especially as their fixtures begin to get tougher.

Comparisons to Fulham and Aleksandar Mitrovic’s decline around this time last season are maybe a little lazy, but still fairly inescapable.

Pukki and Norwich have regressed in recent weeks

Meanwhile, over in west London, Tammy Abraham (£7.7m) is beginning to look like he could be a genuine mid-priced heavy hitter and, as we’ve seen in the past with the likes of Harry Kane (£10.9m) and Jamie Vardy (£9.0m), these types of players, when they emerge, can quickly become essential for their own points output, for the additional captaincy options that they provide and for the investment that they enable elsewhere.

I could, and probably should, have made the move for Abraham earlier but, despite eight goals in as many games, I still have some reservations.

You see, as a Chelsea fan, I love Abraham to the extent that I’d happily throw myself in front of a Julian Dicks penalty for him, but as a Fantasy Premier League asset, I’m not entirely convinced (yet).

At the risk of applying Love Island logic here, I typically have a handful of boxes that I want my FPL forwards to tick: 

1. Do they score goals? 

2. Do they play for a team who create enough chances? 

3. Do they contribute assists as well as goals? 

4. Do they take penalties or other set pieces? 

Jorginho’s role in penalties at Chelsea is a slight concern for Abraham’s prospects

On current evidence, Abraham only offers the first two and, normally, I’d want at least three.

Why does this matter if he’s scoring points from goals? Well, Abraham is currently averaging a goal a game and, even with some good fixtures to come, this output will inevitably regress, particularly without penalties to help inflate his numbers, meaning that blanks are on the horizon unless he can start to contribute assists as well as goals.

In his favour is also the fact that he’s an all-purpose sort of centre-forward, with the size, speed and variety of finishing to deliver against any sort of defence, meaning that, while he won’t score every game, I’ll always believe he stands a chance.

And there’s that price…

Ultimately these factors, plus the opportunity to avoid the sort of “Oh… yay….” instances of cognitive dissonance I’ve been experiencing every time he scores was enough to convince me to finally push the button on Pukki to Abraham.

Will I captain him? It’s tempting but I’m currently leaning towards Callum Wilson (£7.9m) both for the quality of Bournemouth’s fixture at home to Norwich and for his relative consistency this season. Though this particular decision may well go down to the wire.

My team for Gameweek 9

Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

1,468 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Salah 🙂

    1. seewhyaxe
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      is he fit?

      1. The Overthinker
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Yes

        1. RealVirg
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Still flagged...

        2. Mr Q
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Source?

  2. Les Bleus
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    What do you guys think about this WC team? 0.1 ITB as things stand.

    Gaz
    TAA Soy Boly Tomori Lund
    Mane KDB Mount Maddison Donk
    Kun Wilson Tammy

    Would you guys rather have:
    A) Kun and Boly
    B) Auba and Ota + 0.7

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Ospina Colada
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Les Bleus
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers guys! What about

      A) Kun and Maddison
      B) Haller and Sterling

      1. No_Mo_Salah?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        A

        1. Les Bleus
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Thank you! Thinking the same as well.

    4. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I have B.
      With pretty much the same team otherwise. Vardy instead of Wilson.

      1. Les Bleus
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Interesting. Do you have Sterling?

        1. HamezMace
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          No. Same midfield as you.

  3. robotech
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Hi there..
    If you had to choose just two between sterling, kdb or mane, which will it be?
    Thanks!

    1. Sotamendi84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      mane kdb

    2. Les Bleus
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      KDB imo

      1. Les Bleus
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Oh and Mane!

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Kdb mabe

  4. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    On a wildcard and got one cheap midfield role left. I'll likely rotate this player at times.

    I've got a budget of 5.3m. Who would you go for?

    A) Traore
    B) Cantwell
    C) Saka
    D) Other

    Cantwell outperforms Traore in most stat comparisons but I wonder if the tide is turning for both Norwich and Wolves (in different directions).

    Thanks!

    1. Sotamendi84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      traore

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks. I'm on him at the moment.

    2. No_Mo_Salah?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Traore

  5. Sotamendi84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    captain?
    a) tammy
    b) willson
    c) kdb
    d) sterling

    1. seewhyaxe
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      if i have Wilson, i'd captain him

    2. Les Bleus
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B!

    3. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Tough one. I've got three of those options. I was on Sterling but I've gone Tammy. Not convinced, though. Toss a coin between those two?

    4. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Man City bounce back today, so for that reason D, but C would be a nice captaincy differential

    5. Nightf0x
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Same dilemma, currently on wilson

    6. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B IMO

    7. Ospina Colada
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B

    8. Sotamendi84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      tammy is safer due to high ownership i reckon but cant see how city wont score a few against kelly ward pva and cahill

  6. GE
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    What would you change on a Wildcard? 🙂

    (0.0 itb)

    Pope
    TAA/Pereira/Lowton
    Mane/KDB/Maddison/Mount
    Auba/Wilson/Tammy

    Bench: Button, Lu

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Bench: Lundstram, Kelly, Dendoncker

    2. Stoic
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Solid 8.5

      1. GE
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        How to get 10? 😉

  7. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Ryan (button)
    Lund vvd ota (lowton kelly)
    Sterling kdb mane mount (cantwel)
    Puki wilson(c) abraham

    Gtg?

    1. The Wanton Trader
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      V nice. GTG...

  8. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Wilson just isn’t explosive enough for the armband for me. Im happy to just own, Sterling (c) i think. If Wilson cappers are happy with a 12 pointer then fair. I feel Sterling blows him out the water today.

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Think Wilson can easy grab a brace at a minimum today (13points for a brace alone).

  9. davies
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    A) Boly + 4.3

    B) Tomori + Dendoncker

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Isn’t there a 0.3 difference between Boly and Tomori.
      I’d go B anyway.

  10. Mr_Barbs
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    A) VVD & Pukki > Soy & Vardy/Wilson(-4)
    B) VVD & Saka > Soy & Mount (-4)
    C) Salah & Greenwood > Mount & Vardy/Wilson(-4)

    Pope
    TAA, VVD, Otamendi, Aurier
    KDB, Sterling, Salah, Cantwell
    Abraham, Pukki

    Button, Saka, Lundstram, Greenwood

  11. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Sorry repost, last decision to make:
    A. Jimenez
    B. Maddison

    Good luck all 🙂

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B.
      But of course depends on the overall changes.

    2. seewhyaxe
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I went with A as I think a bench fodder mid > bench fodder fwd.

    3. No_Mo_Salah?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A if have Vardy and B otherwise

  12. HamezMace
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    WC question,

    Nick Pope, I’ve had him from the start, got his price rise, and he’s been great. But should I keep him on a WC.
    Realistically how many CS should we expect from him, even over the next five games.

    Leicester away - unlikely.
    Chelsea - no.
    SHU away - not a bad fixture
    WHU - don’t know, but I’m not confident
    Watford - good chance.

    Then it’s Man City and Spurs away.

    So 1-2 CSs in the next seven games, doesn’t seem that good of an option really.

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I’d say they are reasonable fixtures

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        How many CS would you think he’ll get from those games?

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          2 plus save bonus

          1. HamezMace
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Same.
            Well that’s really helped me to be honest. I’m going Gazzaniga set and forget.
            Think he’s got 2 clean sheets in him against WAT, eve, SHU in the next three.
            Many thanks.

    2. Straya
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Agree. As much as don’t rate Spurs defence I’m considering switching to Gazzaniga for that very reason

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I currently have Pope and Gazzaniga on my WC. But wondering if I just get Gazzaniga and a 4.0 and reinvest the 0.6m elsewhere.

    3. La Vida Latte
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Burnley make the other teams shoot from distance.that means save points for Pope.

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        That’s an interesting take. I’ve not noticed that from watching them.

  13. Stoic
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Play 2
    A) Ota
    B) Aurier
    C) Son

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B and C. Best fixtures for Spurs to have. Aurier has better attacking potential than Ota.

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      AC

    3. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I cant believe your bench is so strong that you have to bench one of those 3!

  14. FCRS BGD
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Hi guys

    Does anybody knows what is happening with Fraser (bou), why he doesnt play? is there an issue with the form or something related with the contract ?
    Thanks

  15. Henning
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Good morning

    0.8 m in the bank 0 FT

    1. Anything worth a hit?
    2. who to cap.?

    Pope

    TAA Dunk Rico

    Mane Sterling KDB Maddison Mount

    Vardy Abraham

    Button Lundstram Mings Greenwood

  16. The Greenback Boogie
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Which of these 2 would you start?

    A. Soy - Burnley (h)
    B. Guilbert - Brighton (h)
    C. Cresswell - Everton (a)

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      AB

  17. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Only if Son was a sure starter !!!

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I know 🙁

  18. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    GTG or use a transfer somewhere? 1ft 0.4 itb

    Pope
    TAA Robbo Digne Lundstram
    Salah C Sterling Mount Cantwell
    Auba Haller

    Button Rico Saka GreeW

  19. andre_c
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Pukki to Wilson? Yay or Nay

  20. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    I see the ‘Is Salah > Mane worth it’ query is quite topical - so thought I’d throw my two cents into the mix - I think it really depends on how you look at it:

    On direct attacking returns, Mané does appear to be reaching a level of output that all but the highest echelon of elite FPL players would find unsustainable (19 G 3A in his last 23 starts)

    Delving deeper into the statistics also shows a trend that could be interpreted as ‘over performance’ in comparison to Salah - statistically it is actually quite one sided between the two in Salah’s favour

    (Despite being 2 FPL points behind Mané season to date - Salah actually BETTERS him for a host of underlying stats - XG, Non-penalty XG, XA, XGi, Shots on target, Penalty Box touches, Goal attempts, attempts in the box etc etc...)

    And with Salah also having the traditional FPL points boosters of a share of set pieces and penalties, you’d have to think he is well positioned to continue delivering at his quite frankly astounding level of consistency since joining liverpool - in (84 league games) he has only ever went more than 2 consecutive games without an attacking return on 7 occasions

    5 of these patches were simple 2-game droughts, and after all 5 he scored a goal in the following game

    The sixth was a 5-game drought from GW27-31 last year, which was followed by 5 goals & 3 assists in the subsequent 6 matches

    This is his 7th such lean spell - fascinated to see how it ends

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      *And as per usual, the comments system clips a portion off the end of my post

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        So for my money, no it’s not worth it - but in FPL there are no guarantees, and Mané is a truly fantastic forward, make no mistake - his multiple premier league hattricks for Southampton before he even arrived at Liverpool confirmed as much and he is definitely in red hot form

    2. JurgenRodgers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Both incredible footballers,

      Mane has gone up a level in 2019

    3. Evil Buddha
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Both Salah and Sterling have stats to back them. But recent points account for more transfers. Moving out the highest scorer last two seasons is always risky.

    4. Wally banter
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      own both, simple

    5. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      If salah blanks and mane scores this gw I’m making the move - simples

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Many have already taken that plunge!

        I have to say my personal gut here is that Mané’s points output is on the crest of a wave & Salah’s is at the bottom of one (assuming Salah’s superior underlying statistics start to translate back into superior points output, as they have done for a large portion of he last 2.5 seasons) and that their FPL outputs could easily cross soon...

        But there’s no doubting who’s form has been the stronger - particularly over that last 20-25 game horizon, hence the price move we saw overnight that now has a tiny 0.6 price gap between hem

        A gap that just looks too small for me when you take a step back

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Agreed but another GW in favour of mane will result in another wave of transfers, another price change - can’t hold a player who continues to drop! Hopefully this is salahs gw - a couple of pens, a big pool win and ole getting sacked

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            The price fall actually wouldn’t bother me in the slightest - so long as it’s in an environment where Salah doesn’t start to experience a deterioration in those core underlying statistics, and obviously that he doesn’t continue to blank every week

            I don’t see this as a time for alarm at all for Salah owners - in fact the sales should be beneficial in the long run as sellers will either miss out on the points that his stats (and historical points) suggest are queued up out there somewhere in the next few GW’s, or alternatively, will have to waste transfers and hits to get him back in when the inevitable (imo) explosion comes along

            Fascinating scenario though & hats off to Mané for the improvement he’s shown in the last 6-8 months

            1. Eat my goal!
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              Good way at looking at it

              With sterling also disappointing for returns from the left. Which is comparable to performances on the left last year - maybe it’s just a case of get both mane and salah

    6. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Is it not always the case so far Salah stats bettering Mane? Salah needs loads of chances, Mane more clinical? If I simplify (at least for myself) is whether I am happy to go away with 0.8M without taking penalties ...

      1. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        .6 now

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        One of the (many) fallacies or pitfalls to be avoided with using XG for predictive FPL decision making is assuming that ‘what goes up must come down’

        If Mané has indeed had a light bulb moment in training some ~8 or so months ago that has elevated his already lethal finishing to new heights, then he will continue outperforming... it’s just the ‘if’

    7. Lucy2019
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      You love the sound of your own typing, don't you?

  21. Fresh_From_Desh
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Here is a sexy question.

    Is Callum Chambers nailed? 4.4 with decent fixtures

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I don’t think so

    2. Wally banter
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      He is playing at rb i guess, bellerin has already played in carabao cup..means soon he will lose the spot

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Fair shout guys.

        Thanks

  22. Henning
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Play Mings of Dunk?

  23. PocketZola
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Any last minute changes? My gut says get Tierney before everyone jumps on the bandwagon, and i dont like having so much chelsea

    pope
    taa pierea tomori
    mane kdb mount mcginn
    auba wilson abraham

    subs, lund, rico, dend

  24. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    *And as per usual, the comments system clips a portion off the end of my post 🙂

    So for my money, no it’s not worth it - but in FPL there are no guarantees, and Mané is a truly fantastic forward, make no mistake - his multiple premier league hattricks for Southampton before he even arrived at Liverpool confirmed as much and he is definitely in red hot form

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      An attempt to complete my post ^^^^ lol

  25. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Captain...

    A) Tammy
    B) Sterling
    C) Mane

    First to 2

    1. andre_c
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A

  26. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Already got abraham and CHO...who is better option....

    A....madison

    B...mount

    Thanks

    1. SUPER MOKH
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      CHO is alternative for Mount I guess, so Maddison

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks

    2. No_Mo_Salah?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A for me

    3. Mr_Barbs
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Maddison if you haven't got Vardy

  27. SUPER MOKH
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Pope McGovern
    TAA Boly Lund Kelly Rico
    Mane KDB Maddison Mount Cantwell
    Wilson Kun Tammy

    How's this lot as WC team?

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      It’s fine.
      Personally I’d downgrade Cantwell to bench fodder and upgrade Kelly to someone with a less horrific run of games.

    2. Firefoxed
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I personally dropped Mane for Sterling and Kun for Auba..equally confused

  28. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Who to bench?

    (A) Digne
    (B) TAA
    (C) Mings
    (D) Zinchenko

    1. SUPER MOKH
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Digne

  29. Firefoxed
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Ryan Button
    TAA Soy Lund Tomori Rico
    Sterling KDB Maddison Mount Cantwell
    Wilson Auba Tammy

    How's this WC team?