Pro Pundits

Why doing nothing is so difficult for FPL managers

After consecutive red arrows and at least a couple of my players having apparently outstayed their welcome, it feels like action is needed with my team and, yet, I’m doing my best to try and do nothing.

Doing nothing should be a perfectly acceptable strategy in Fantasy Premier League, in fact, doing nothing can offer all sorts of advantages, so why is doing nothing so difficult?

One answer might be found in an appropriately-themed study of goalkeepers and penalties conducted by Israeli psychologist Michael Bar-Eli.

Bar-Eli studied hundreds of penalties faced by elite goalkeepers and found that, in attempting to save the penalty, goalkeepers tend to dive left or right about 94% of the time.

Deciding how to make transfers is somewhat similar to goalkeepers having to save penalties

However, crunching the data, Bar-Eli also discovered that about 60% of penalties actually go down the centre of the goal, meaning that, if goalkeepers just remained central instead of diving they would, on average, save more penalties.

Most surprising, however, was the finding that, even after these elite goalkeepers were made aware of these stats, they still continued to dive left or right when facing penalties.

Bar-Eli concluded that this was a manifestation of ‘Action Bias’; a cognitive bias describing an impulse to take action in order to feel ‘in control’ of a situation or problem.

Sometimes, as the goalkeeper study suggests, we prefer to take action even when we know the best strategy is to do nothing and this compulsion is particularly strong when the ‘norm’ or expectation is that we should take action.

In other words; it’s easier to justify action than inaction, and taking action makes us feel better than doing nothing.

Haller has been frustrating to own but I still fancy West Ham’s Gameweek 11 fixture

It’s not hard to see how this bias can manifest itself among Fantasy managers, particularly after a poor Gameweek.

In some respects, it is the psychological basis for ‘knee-jerking’ or transferring players out based on emotion.

Looking at my team, it’s harder to justify keeping the likes of Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson (£8.0m) and West Ham’s Sébastian Haller (£7.4m) after several blanks each than it would be to switch either out for somebody who seems to be in better form, and the compulsion is to do exactly that.

Of course, the flipside to this is that, around this time last week, owners of Leicester’s Ayoze Pérez (£6.1m) would have looked at their teams and thought exactly the same thing.

Now, by no means is Perez scoring a hat-trick conclusive evidence of the benefits of doing nothing but it does offer a timely illustration that doing nothing can really pay off.

I’d say this is more likely to occur if the player in question has a good fixture and, with Wilson hosting a Manchester United team without a clean sheet in five matches and Haller at home to 17th-place Newcastle, hat-tricks might not be on the cards but I wouldn’t bet against them scoring either.

Perhaps more general are the benefits of banking an extra transfer and I’m a big believer in two transfers being exponentially better than one.

Here is how I line up for Gameweek 11

This week, with only one transfer currently available, I have limited forward options to replace Wilson or Haller, none of whom have very compelling fixtures either this week and/or in upcoming Gameweeks, or taking a hit.

If I wait until next week, I get the benefit of my players’ decent fixtures this Gameweek and practically unlimited options for their replacement(s), meaning I can get the player(s) I want, with the fixtures to deliver.

If I’m really lucky, Wilson and Haller hit form, I get some points and I end up with a transfer headache next week.

Ultimately, while too much inertia can be as damaging as too much action, judiciously doing nothing with a view to it paying off over several Gameweeks can be a very viable strategy if you can fight the short term instinct to knee-jerk.

So, this Gameweek, I’m standing still, fingers crossed, hoping that the FPL gods aren’t aiming left or right.

575 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ClothedinSun
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Team g2g?

    Ryan,
    Pereira, Lundstram, Robbo,
    Mane, Maddison, Mount, Sterling,
    C. Wilson, Jiminez, Tammy

    Subs: Pope, Cantwell, Tomori, Schar*

    Cheers!

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah, good team.

      1. ClothedinSun
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers mate!

    2. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Interesting team.

      Only thing is, I might be tempted to go Pope over Ryan

      1. ClothedinSun
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        You reckon? S.Utd are jammy at home though and Norwich are generally a bit iffy no?

        1. StayoutheSpiceZone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Maybe. It’s personal preference.

          I just think Norwich have more goal threat and Porter is quite an offensive coach. However, I am probably wrong - go with your gut! Good luck!

          1. StayoutheSpiceZone
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            *potter

            1. ClothedinSun
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              Nice one brother, on reflection I came to the same conclusion as you so I think I may go for Pope given Burnley's better defence. Appreciate it!

    3. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Nice, Tomori 1st sub.

  2. iL PiStOlErO
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Downgrading Cantwell. Who would you say is the best replacement out of these 4.5m superheroes?

    1. suddenorgan
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Nakamba

      1. iL PiStOlErO
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Interesting shout. Cheers

  3. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Forgive a second go. Best combination from next week? Money in bank allows for a Boly or Dendoncker upgrade
    A) Martial and Firmino (1.7)
    B) Martial and Lacazette (1.9)
    C) Rashford and Silva (2.7)
    D) Rashford and Son (0.8)
    E) Martial and Kane (0.4)

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      E

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      D or E

    3. The Fed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I Like A

  4. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Who to bench first Soy or Tomori

    1. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Palace don’t score many at home
      Watford don’t either

      I’d personally say Roy is more of the defensive manager so I’d bench tomori

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Flip of a coin though really mate

      2. Niho992
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        I will bench both and start Ota.

    2. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A lot of people having a similar debate but I’m throwing Digne into the mix. Bench 1.

      A. Digne
      B. Soyuncu
      C. Tomori

      1. Blue&White85
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Sorry, posted in wrong place.

      2. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        I don’t like digne. Spurs will defo score. However best goal threat of the three

        1. Blue&White85
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah, totally agree and that’s the dilemma.

          1. StayoutheSpiceZone
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            I’d probs play digne if I had him as at least you have a good chance going forward

    3. The Fed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Play Tomori

  5. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Pick a transfer?

    a) Wilson and Dendonker --> Connolly and Martial
    Start both but long term 3-5-2

    b) Auba and McGinn --> Vardy and Martial
    Play 3-4-3 long term

  6. Pringle
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    What do you prefer for this weekend?

    A. Vardy + Cresswell
    B. Wilson + Connolly

  7. hustler7
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Who scores more this week:

    A) Maddison & Aubameyang

    or

    B) Martial & Vardy (-4)

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Hope it will be A and by lot

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        I’d go 2 points and 7 points
        And then 6 points and 6 points

        So just a with the -4 taken into account

        1. iL PiStOlErO
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Can be, can say that I think no one will haul

  8. King Kun Ta
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    GTG?

    Pope
    Lundstram VVD* Ota (Mings Kelly)
    Sterling (c) Mount Mane Maddison (Cantwell)
    Abraham Vardy Rashford*

    Allready used my FT’s....take -4 to loose Otamendi? Unfortunately 0.1 too short for Mendy.

    Thanks for the advice and GL this GW!

    1. King Kun Ta
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Anybody? Could really use the advice....

    2. George Sillett
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't take a hit for it.

      1. King Kun Ta
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Ta!

  9. rodragon
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Aguero+Dendonker to conolly+sterling and play cantwell/conolly
    Or
    Digne+dendonker to marital+rico and play cantwell.
    Both for free
    thanks!

    1. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

  10. davies
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    What to do with CHO?

    1. The Fed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Replace with Barnes

  11. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    If you had Aguero, would you keep or take a -4 to get rid ??.......bizarrely if I keep I may capt ???

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      The smart choice is to keep but NOT captain

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Agreed

    2. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I am keeping and he's my captain. Might get rid after this gw though.

      1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        If you get rid, who for ??

        1. Dr Ennet
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Considering a hefty downgrade to accomodate a 3-5-2 going forward. Might actually save a transfer next gw to do a mini-wc the week after.

          1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            exactly what I was looking to do, which means hoping Aguero plays at least twice

            1. Dr Ennet
              • 13 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              We just have to keep our fingers crossed mate.

  12. MartialMatas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    How's this looking?

    Ederson
    TAA Soyoncu Tomori Lundstram
    Sterling KDB Martial Mount
    Vardy Abraham

    McGovern Lowton Cantwell Greenwood

    0ft £2.6m itb

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      4 at the back needs addressing, may as well use the cash to upgrade Cantwell. Get Tielemans/Maddison?

    2. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      looks pretty dang good.

  13. Maarrrr17
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Mahrez > Dilva?

    have KDB and Ota

    my front 8 is currently

    mane,kdb,mount,mahrez,dendonker
    wilson,vardy,tammy

    1. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Why not, if you do not want to save the transfer.

      1. Maarrrr17
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Sick of mahrez stinkin up my team

        1. Dr Ennet
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Then I'd do it. 🙂

    2. suddenorgan
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      frying pan > fire

  14. Dr Ennet
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Would you guys play:

    A) Soy
    B) Lowton (double up with Pope)

    Cheers! 🙂

    1. The Fed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

  15. 03farmboy
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Transfer Vardy in for Aubameyang a good move or not??

    1. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      :/ Who else do you have?

    2. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I did on a free transfer. Don't know if it was the right decision but was fed up with Auba.

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Wait. Not yet.

    4. The Fed
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yes, great move

  16. pjomara
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    This guy Bar-Eli in the article overlooked one important detail - mostly when penalty takers hit the ball down the middle it's because see that the goalie is diving left or right.
    If they see the goalie isn't diving they're not going to hit it down the middle. I'm sure the success rate is higher for takers who hit to the side when the goalie stays in the middle, than that of takers who hit down the middle when the goalie dives.
    A good plan for a goalie is to pretend that he's diving and then just stay in the middle, but once he's done this a couple of times the opposition will be aware of it.

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Mate, when hitting a pen you don’t have time to see the keeper dive and then hit the ball down the tee.. come on now

      1. Captain_Shirokov
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Jorginho does 😉

        1. IRBOX ⚽
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Jimenez seems to be copying his technique!

  17. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Tell me - would you make a transfer here or save?

    Pope
    TAA, Tomori, Soyuncu
    Sterling, KDB, Mane, Martial
    Abraham, Jiminez, Connolly

    Button, Hudson-Odoi, Rico, Janmaat.

    1FT 0.00 ITB

    1. Captain_Shirokov
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Save for sure.

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Right bench?

        1. Captain_Shirokov
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Yup.

    2. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A definite save mate. 🙂 Team looks great.

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers! Wish my rank looked as good 😆

        1. Dr Ennet
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Ha ha. You'll get there. I am lingering around 1.5 m. Weird season but I'm confident we'll end up at respectable ranks.

    3. Beizer
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I am playing Cho over Connolly, but can understand why you're doing the opposite.

  18. Captain_Shirokov
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    I have 2 free transfers. What would you do with this defence?

    TAA(avl) - Otamendi(SOU) - Lundstram(BUR) - Montoya(NOR) - Soyuncu(cry)

    Happy to play any of these defenders this week. Don't fancy any City defence after SOU.

    1. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Would you dabble in chelsea?

      1. Captain_Shirokov
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Probably would actually yeah. Tomori a good shout?

  19. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    So who is the best sub 9m 3rd striker (after Tammy & Vardy).

    A. None and play 3-5-2
    B. Jiminez
    C. Haller
    D. Wilson
    E. Rashford

  20. rodog
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Guys, which 1 player to bench from the following:

    Sterling - SOU (H)
    KDB - SOU (H)
    Salah - AVL (A)
    Mount - WAT (A)
    Abraham - WAT (A)
    Vardy - CRY (A)
    Connolly - NOR (H)
    Yarmolenko - NEW (H)

    1. Captain_Shirokov
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Connolly.

    2. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Bench Sterling or Salah yep 🙂

    3. SirT83
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Connolly

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Connolly and with great reluctance. He might get dropped but it's awful to do it with Norwich (h).

  21. Polar_Bear
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Which of the below for a -4? Ota, hayden and wood out for:
    1) Saiss, Ayew, Mount
    2) Saiss, Ayew, Perez
    3) Saiss, Ayew, Tielemans
    Have hayden and Cantwell so want to use -4 to pump up 4th mid.

  22. SirT83
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    A: Mount and Van Dijk
    B: Robbo and Yarmalenko

    Have Abraham and Trent from before.

  23. Ask Yourself
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Is KDB still going to be playing CDM this weekend? Thinking going Dilva (C) instead

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Kdb still the quarterback either way

  24. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    That's decided it.
    Save a transfer and mini WC next GW

    1. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A mini WC is always a treat to look forward to. 🙂

    2. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yes I'm probably on that myself - too many unclear issues this week (as a Kun owner especially)

      1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        If I was a Kun owner i'd be sending Pep not nice letters

    3. SirT83
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Good to know. 🙂

  25. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone brave enough to consider the Rashford Martial double up soon?
    Ballsy or stupid...

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      You’d have to be doing it right now or not worth it. Probably even a week late. Good fixtures aren’t for very long

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Fixtures are good awful and then really good 🙂

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I'm thinking of doing it.

      A) Rashford + Martial + Yarmolenko
      B) Vardy + Cantwell + Martial
      C) Vardy + James + Yarmolenko
      D) Vardy + Perez + Yarmolenko

      It's gonna be one of the above combinations.

      Currently leaning B but it's close.

  26. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    2 to play this GW please lads? They will accompany Robertson. Thanks

    A. Tomori Away to Watford
    B. Rico Home to Man.U
    C. Soyuncu Away to Palace
    D. Lundstrom Home to Burnley

    1. Ninjaa
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Or do I bench Pukki/King and play 4 at the back??

    2. Dr Ennet
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      D and then it's a coin toss between A and C. Would probably go with A.

    3. suddenorgan
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Lundstram + Tomori, Palace good at home

  27. Weasel51
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Digne + Cantwell >> Martial + Rico (-4)

    Worth it??

  28. leocarter27
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Best option please?

    A) Lascelles
    B) Saiss

    Thanks

    1. Champ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Lascelles better pick imo

  29. Jensen Luiz Coleman
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Play 1

    a) James (bou)
    b) Connolly (NOR)
    c) Rico (MUN)

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Connolly.

  30. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Does this sound like a decent plan?

    Wilson and Dendoker --> Martial and Connolly

    Then start both of them this GW but long term Connolly is my bench fodder in a 3-5-2.

    Next GW I can then decide whether Auba turns into Kane / Vardy.

    Only concern is whether Connolly starts tomorrow?

    Thanks in advance guys