It promises to be a bumper Saturday for managers in the Fantasy Premier League with eight fixtures taking place and the top two teams both in action.
To help ensure you are celebrating a green arrow after the bonus points have been added this evening, the Fantasy Football Scout guide to Gameweek 11 is packed with FPL analysis, psychological insights, and eye-opening statistics.
With the events of Gameweek 10 still fresh in our minds, the impact of Leicester City’s record-breaking win over Southampton has been heavily scrutinised. Should we all be getting their players? Is Southampton’s defence simply dreadful? The Saints now travel to Manchester City – should we be targeting their players?
The answer to the last two questions is a fairly emphatic yes. G-Whizz revealed in his regular look at the DS stats, fixtures and clean sheet odds, that Southampton’s chances of keeping a clean sheet are just 6%. While those odds may be affected by the betting market, it would clearly be a huge surprise if Man City didn’t score.
Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 11?
The runaway leader in this site’s captain poll is Raheem Sterling, with just under 40% of the vote. He’s followed in popularity by team-mates De Bruyne and Aguero.
Part of the reason for Sterling’s popularity is the expectation that he will start this afternoon – never an easy thing to predict with Guardiola. Along with De Bruyne, the Englishman was rested for the midweek EFL Cup tie. David Wardale observed:
[De Bruyne] watched the tie from the bench, while Sterling wasn’t even in the squad last night. As a result, both look like shoo-ins for Gameweek 11 inclusion, also at home to Southampton.
David Munday’s research on the Scoutcast backed up the idea that Sterling is the most likely attacking player to start for the defending Premier League champions. The 24-year-old has played more minutes this season than either De Bruyne or Aguero.
Last Chance Saloon for Aguero
In seasons past, a home match for Man City against a team who have just conceded nine goals would have managers flocking to a certain Argentinian. But times have changed, and ahead of the Gameweek 11 deadline Sergio Aguero is the second-most-sold player with over 250,000 transfers out.
The reason for the exodus is the lack of certainty over his playing time. Gabriel Jesus has been preferred for the last two Premier League matches. However, given that Jesus also started in EFL Cup, Ash (aka Chief) is begrudgingly giving Aguero one last chance:
Jesus has started three games in a row over a short period of time. Surely he’s due a rest? With this in mind, I’m reluctantly willing to hold onto Aguero for one more Gameweek.
In his latest Pro Pundit article reflecting on his season so far, Az reminded us about a player’s potential to return big points:
Consider the ceiling of players before making a decision.
If any player has a high points ceiling it has to be Aguero. In this week’s Captaincy Video, David highlighted his minutes per xGI:
Aguero is still top of the league in the last four matches for minutes per expected goal involvement.
In other words, he should have a good chance of delivering attacking returns for his owners. David even goes as far to suggest he’s a viable captain option:
However, it was likely that, if he starts, Aguero would be more likely to score than Sterling based on his recent performances. That said, the centre-forward looks less likely to assist than his English colleague and is, of course, somewhat less likely to start. – Captain Sensible
Doing Nothing
Last year, former FPL winner and behavioural economics graduate, Simon March, introduced us to the “What the heck? Effect” – where we are more likely to take risks following a loss. This week, Simon expanded on the urge to sell that many Aguero owners have been feeling recently:
Action Bias; a cognitive bias describing an impulse to take action in order to feel ‘in control’ of a situation or problem… taking action makes us feel better than doing nothing.
Simon referenced a study on why goalkeepers don’t save more penalties to make the case for patience.
Ahead of Gameweek 11, being patient for Simon means saving a transfer and handing Sebastian Haller and Callum Wilson a stay of execution.
Although giving Callum Wilson one more chance is not a viewed shared by fellow Pro Pundit Zophar or FPL Question Time panelist Maximus Bonimus Pointimus.
Overall, whilst both Wilson and Bournemouth will undoubtedly score goals again, time is of the essence and competition for FPL slots is currently strong, all of which conspire to make Wilson a potentially difficult hold in the current environment.
Zophar put the nail in the coffin:
I decided to look into Wilson’s stats and noticed that the Bournemouth striker did not register a single attempt against Watford.
High-Flying Foxes
It was a tough week for Zophar, who correctly identified Leicester City as a team with the potential to do well, but had ended up with the wrong player:
Seven goals in, I was reaching for the whiskey as Maddison displayed a complete aversion to the penalty area.
A late goal for the Foxes midfielder wasn’t enough to save him from the chop:
I couldn’t help but feel I had got out of jail with Maddison. He had 115 touches in the Southampton game, the second highest of any player on the pitch, but just one penalty area touch and zero chances created.
So in come Jamie Vardy and Ayoze Perez for Zophar as he tries to rectify his mistake.
However, despite the record win, not everyone felt it was the right time to jump on the Leicester bandwagon.
The reason for caution is a trip to Crystal Palace. Neale noted on the Captaincy Video that this is likely to be their toughest test in the upcoming Gameweeks:
Three clean sheets at home for Palace this season – no side has had more. Three goals conceded by Palace at home, no side has conceded fewer.
While on the Scoutcast, Andy Goddard, who is currently tied with Neale for the lead in the Mods & Cons mini-league, observed that both of Leicester’s big wins have come against ten men.
Nostradamus
Ahead of Gameweek 10, Neale highlighted in his members-only preview that Southampton concede the majority of their chances down their right flank – indeed no team had conceded more down the right – therefore it might be worth considering Ben Chilwell and Harvey Barnes.
The same logic applies this week with the inclusion of Benjamin Mendy in the Scout Picks. The Frenchman is expected to start as an attacking left-back against Southampton.
And as GreyHead discovered in his latest review of The Great and The Good, FPL Legend Mark Sutherns is one step ahead of the curve having brought in Mendy in Gameweek 10.
This week Neale highlighted a weakness in the air for Aston Villa which could prove beneficial to Sadio Mané:
A trip to Aston Villa does play into Mané’s hands or rather, his head. Since the season began only two teams have allowed more headed efforts than Dean Smith’s men, while Mané was top for producing these among midfielders in 2018/19.
Team news & more
Neale and Rotation’s Alter Ego have brought us the latest team news ahead of the deadline.
For all the important quotes check out Neale’s two Team News articles. And for a handy summary head to RAE’s round-up.
Elsewhere there were a number of engaging hot topics on site, as Pro Pundit Tom Freeman risked his reputation by picking out Theo Walcott as one to watch and asked if now might be the time to get Manchester United players. With Pieterke30 unsure whether Martial might be a trap and Lateriser12 questioning the value of “big hitters”.
Scandinavian Fantasy Leagues
Ahead of the final round of fixtures in Fantasy Allsvenskan, Meltens brings us his regular musings on the players to target and the captaincy picks.
Well done to FFS managers Daniel Sebestyen and Jan Inge Nordby, who are both within touching distance of the Fantasy Allsvenskan crown, and Henrik Mäkitalo and Simon Eriksson, who are both hoping to cement places in the top ten overall. It’s been a successful season for FFS managers with many in the top 1%.
While the football season is drawing to a close in Sweden, over in Norway there’s still four rounds to go. As usual, TallestJohn has kindly provided us with his Eliteserien insights. Can teams be described as “being on the beach” in Scandinavian football? Is there a more seasonal term?
TallestJohn highlights the teams with something still to play for and others who might be, er, hitting the slopes!
To view all our discussions please visit our Hot Topics page, and if you’ve got some analysis, scout reports or features brewing, be sure to visit our community section to submit your article.
If you’re a member and are yet to get to grips with the custom statistics tables, you can view this movie for an explanation of how they work. Also, remember to tag them so that people can find the tables with ease.
Community Competitions
For a full update on all FFS Mini-Leagues and Community Competitions, please click here to read the latest round-up.
B Bodega: Holly’s Hamster reviewed MatchWeek 2 in the Pundits Playoff community tournament. He’ll no doubt be hoping his team “Holly’s Hamsters” can finally get off the mark in MatchWeek 3.
Although they face a difficult fixture against “Nirvana Scott Talent”, whose team includes Owen Walker (aka Zan Scott Talent). Owen is currently tied on 24 points with Craig Johnson (aka Bouncebackability) at the top of the Head-to-Head Leagues.
For those interested in the Head-to-Head Leagues, the main page can be linked to here. A link has also been added to the ‘Scout Leagues’ section on the home page.
The fixtures for Gameweek 11 can be found below:
Use the drop-down menus to show your league and division. To find out which league and division you are in, follow the instructions on the main Head-to-Head page.
Once the Gameweek starts, if you click on your opponent’s name you will be linked to their team on the FPL website.
Best of luck for Gameweek 11!
4 years, 5 months agoBoom