Pro Pundits - Az

The dangers of taking hits to chase points in FPL

“It is by testing our ideas, subjecting them to failure, that we set the stage for growth.” – Matthew Syed, Black Box Thinking

Another Gameweek passes in the Fantasy Premier League, and it’s another hit for my team.

Greyhead’s constant nods to my transfer dealings in his ‘Great and the Good‘ series keeps reminding me of my aggressive approach to this season.

Using this article as a chance to reflect on my hits, it’s quite grim reading on first glance.

A -4 to bring in Dani Ceballos (£5.3m) in Gameweek 4 was a disaster. My second hit of the season involved me chasing the points of Kevin de Bruyne (£10.2m) who was promptly benched and scored 1 point.

I managed to resist the urge for further hits until Gameweek 10, where I again took a hit to dump the underperforming Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) for KDB… who managed just a single assist. 

In Gameweek 11, another hit, as Mason Mount (£6.8m) left my team for Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), to fund a move for Jamie Vardy (£9.7m).

My most recent hit involved taking out Ricardo Pereira (£6.4m) and Hudson-Odoi for Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.0m) and James Maddison (£7.6m). It’s quite painful to see just how much the carousel has been spinning.

Hudson-Odoi has been one of a few ill-fated punts in my team this season

What’s interesting (well for me anyway!) is how I’ve been going about making the hits.

My latest was the third time I’ve made a so-called ‘sideways’ move.

To fund de Bruyne initially, I downgraded Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) for fellow Liverpool player Joel Matip (£5.3m). After selling him for an ill-fated fling with Mahrez, I lost Mount for teammate Hudson-Odoi.

To then upgrade Hudson-Odoi, I lost Pereira for Söyüncü.  

To finally board the Vardy party, I even managed to swap Nicolas Otamendi (£5.2m), a non-playing defender, for Martin Kelly (£4.1m)… another non-playing defender.

On the whole, I think these were the right moves for my team, but in some ways, these hits felt like trading two players for one.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all but my latest hit have got me big fat red arrows.

Looking back on these moves, it’s also made me realise that I’ve been putting too much money in defence this season.

Out of the three hits I’ve just mentioned, they all involved downgrading a defender. This is despite a normal strategy of mine being to avoid paying a premium price for defenders unless they are playing at Wing Back or have set pieces in their locker.

Alonso, when playing regularly, is a premium option I am willing to pay for

I’ve never been afraid of making a hit, and I recently watched the brilliant Meet the Manager video with Joe and Mark, where Mark talks about his own strategy.

His fear of being £0.1m or £0.2m off transfers further down the line fuels his aggression, making him more likely to take hits, and also make earlier transfers.

My most recent hit didn’t pay off this week but it’s already helped improve my team value.

Hudson-Odoi has dropped twice, while both Söyüncü and Maddison have gone up £0.2m each.

That’s a massive swing – and my team is in better shape for it.

Just because people are saying I’m taking too many hits doesn’t mean I’m likely to slow down any time soon…!

And in true Black Box style, my hits are often correcting my mistakes, such as bringing in Hudson-Odoi, who I do feel I was a little unlucky with, damn you Christian Pulisic!

Pulisic’s burst into the team has closed down Hudson-Odoi as an option

In fact, this season would probably be even worse for me if I hadn’t set about correcting mistakes in my own team.

Losing de Bruyne on the Wildcard for Mahrez was rash. It cost me four points to bring him back, but he delivered this week with a goal against Chelsea.

Not leaving an extra £0.1m in the bank for Vardy was idiotic, but my -4 to bring him in and ship Callum Wilson (£7.7m) a few weeks ago has more than paid for itself.

I have no doubt that the upgrade of Hudson-Odoi to Maddison will reap rewards soon too. He is my boy after all – despite his questionable taste in backpacks.

As people around me are getting itchy feet with players like Anthony Martial (£7.8m), Mount, and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m) – I feel like I may finally be in a pretty strong position as we head into Christmas.

I’m banking the transfer this week, and then, barring a change in Arsenal manager or a monster haul, I’ll be looking at getting rid of Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and FINALLY bringing in the man they call Lord John Lundstram (£4.9m).

Yes, you read that right. I’m planning on losing last years golden boot winner to fund a move for a £4.0m defender… what a season this is.

So, while I do not have any hits planned in the near future, it seems inevitable that I will succumb to my cravings. When I do, let’s hope it comes from a position of strength, rather than to correct yet another mistake.

My Gameweek 14 bus team

Az <p>One half of the FPL BlackBox YouTube series with Mark Sutherns.</p><p>Former Membership Strategy Manager for FFS&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

841 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Mike-Kovic
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    2FT

    dendoncker->Son
    Auba-> Ayew

    good move?

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Auba to Ings or Mouset

      1. Mike-Kovic
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Palace fixture looks good

  2. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Who will score more over the next 4

    Salah
    Son

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      If fit and looks sharp tonight has to be Salah imo.

      1. SHOOTER MCGINN
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        This. If...

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          We'll know today.

          Klopp has been saying he's fine just gotta see him on the pitch.

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Salah

  3. SHOOTER MCGINN
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Pope, Guaita or Dubravka from now until next year? Currently got Pope but getting bored of him now.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Gustav

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      getting bored of back to back 9 pointers are we. Downgrade to Gazza for them juicy 2 pointers

      1. SHOOTER MCGINN
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        On the hunt on those penalty saves innit. But nah feel like there are better options over the next few months.

    3. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Henderson.

  4. Stef rocks
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Just did my FT

    Anything you would change for a hit?

    Pope
    Taa pereira taylor ( lundi reid)
    Mane KDB sonny Maddison (Cantwell)
    Tammy Vardy jimmy

  5. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    captain

    A) salah
    B) son
    C) good ol' vardy

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      probably going Vardy myself. Super Sunday is a factor for me aswell.

    2. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Gov

  6. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Anywhere I can find heatmaps and stats of the CL games from last night?

  7. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    would you rather a Chelsea triple up or Liverpool triple up this GW? Basically looking at Montoya to Robertson (TAA Mane) or Cantwell to Pulisic (Mount Tammy). Have 2.9 and 1FT. My front line is:

    Mane KDB Son Mount Cantwell
    Tammy Vardy Greenwood

    Would probably look to downgrade Mount in 2GW's

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Rob

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      What's your defense?

  8. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    KDB to Son in two

  9. STONEROSES
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Sterling -> Son
    Aurier -> Robertson

    These good moves? Still have KDB in mid

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Aurier has two assists and a goal under mourinho in two ganes

    2. istanbul05
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Just Sterling for me

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I want Aurier. Keep him.

      Sterling > Son easily.

  10. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    No one here seems to have rheir WC left?
    I am only olanning until GW17

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Are you WCing 18 rather than 19?

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        I guess.
        Fixtures seem to change there.
        Pool blank, Leicester vs MCity.

        Gives me a chance to get a few punts.
        3Liverpool and Ings without horrendous fear of injury.

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      i have mine. I'm playing mine the last day i can. Will load back up on Man City assets

  11. LC1
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Morning all.

    Am I good to save FT? Or should I bring in another Pool player;

    Pope
    TAA Lunds Soyuncu
    KDB Mane Mount Tielemens
    Vardy(c) Abraham Jimenez

    Tomori Rico Dendo.

    And should I start Tomori, and if so, who ahead of? Lund?

    1 FT and 3.5 ITB.

    Thanks

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Could also do Mount > Son?

    2. istanbul05
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Save and play Tamori for me

  12. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    A) PVA in 433 - (Mount + Kelly ➡ Cantwell + PVA)
    B) Zaha in 343 (Kelly + Mount ➡ Ried + Zaha)

    A or B for the following team?

    Gazza
    TAA Robbo Soy/Lund (Kelly)
    Mane Son KDB Mount (donkey)
    Vardy Abraham Raul

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A ruins your structure.
      B easily.

      1. Eleven Hag
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Thank you

        Who do u think will score more points between those two, during the palace fixture run

  13. istanbul05
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Talk about a benching headache next week...which 2 would you bench?

    Pope,
    TAA, VVD, Soyuncu, Tamori, Lundstram,
    Mane, KDB, Martial, Mount,
    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez.

    Currently benching Lundstram and Tamori....

    Thanks!

    1. puhd
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah that’s right

    2. LC1
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Bloody hell that's tough.. Maybe Lund & Tomori?! Too tough to call.

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Ew. I might be tempted to bench someone Mount over Lundstram. Tomori sits for sure.

  14. IRBOX ⚽
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    12, 15, 9, 2, 7, 8 at home.. this man should be a lock for the captaincy. Who am I?

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      You were T Box

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Everybody knows me as Irbox.

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Mo

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Salah.

    4. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I know what I’d like to say, Salah?

    5. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Last 3:

      2 7 8
      Vs
      12 8 12
      who owns him?

  15. puhd
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Son or Pulisic?

  16. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    KdB out?

    Could do:

    A) KdB > Salah
    B) Cantwell > Pulisic

    If A, I'd start Tomori. If B, Tomori first sub.

    1. puhd
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely B

    2. LC1
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      How come getting rid of KDB?

  17. prbaker1980
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Lord John of Lundstram is a 5.0 defender now not a 4.0 defender!

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      He really is not a defender. FPL towers messed up.

    2. puhd
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yes indeed

  18. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Need Mount to stay quiet tonight and then to start as a 10 with room to roam in front of Kante and Jorginho

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Frank is playing a 4-3-3 with WIllian and Pulisic preferred out wide to partner Abraham. I actually did Mount > Pulisic for a -4 which I expect to pay off handsomely

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Thx

      2. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        But he played 433 all season and scored every other game?
        What happend to him?
        He wasnt overachieving either

  19. dshv
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Is it too risky to be with Kane captain?

    1. Fernando Torres
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I'm considering it

  20. El Matador
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    -4 point hit in GW7 saw me drop from 470k rank to 750k. 6 gameweeks on and after another -12 worth of hits I'm 36k overall.

    It's all about taking hits at the right time for the right players.

  21. space mercenary
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Interesting article. Taking hits is definitely an art form. I have taken no hits this season until last week. I had to shift Ota, Matip and Pukki. I also wanted Pulisic and Robbo / TAA back in so I cashed in on Mount too. This leaves me with
    Schmeical
    Robbo TAA Lund Tomori
    Martial Mane Sterling KDB Pulisic
    Tammy
    {Greenwood Connely Rico Button)
    Not quite as template and I was only a couple of ref descions away from my Sterling captain choice paying off, taking into account the Vardy pen incident. It just shows what fine margins can do. I have rode a major price swing wave however and do think a Vardy-less team is still an option just as a Salah-less team was at the start of the season. I am not convinced Vardy's current form is sustainable and the attacking defenders and value mids should be able to cover these points. I think getting some value players early is important. How much will Lund, Tammy Pulisic and even Rico be next season? So there is also a 'theoretical' team value to consider too.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I think not getting Vardy at this point is stubborness not patience. He has the underlying stats this season too with the most big chances. It is sustainable with those fixtures and no European commitments.

    2. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I still remember Vardy breaking the record for scoring in the most consecutive premier league games. Vardy can sustain it for as long as he likes 🙂

  22. Chelsea91
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Pope
    Robbo,Lund,Soy
    Mane,kdb,son,pulisic
    Jimmy,rashford,vardy

    How the team looks mate? Any suggestion?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      very nice !

      1. Chelsea91
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks mate

    2. space mercenary
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I like it. I would just be looking at keeping 2 free transfers ready to get form players or make repairs.

      1. Chelsea91
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks mate

  23. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Captaincy headache...

    Salah, Mane, Son, Vardy, Abraham.

    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Vardy. No headache needed.

      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        +1

        ride the wave

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Mane or vardy

    3. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Gotta be Salah. Loves Anfield as reflected by his FPL returns and super differential. Everton will frustrate Leicester

      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        thinking out of the box

  24. Azathoth
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Keep C.Wilson or bring in Jimi?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Let Callum go. He is a bit of a feast or famine type, but can't predict when. Jimi in contrast is a season keeper and in pretty decent form.

  25. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    pick one

    A Kane
    B Son

    Thanks a lot

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Son. He's cheaper. And gets midfielder points.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks Camzy. Kane on pens though.

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I've already gone for Son - easier to do with my team structure - but would have gone Kane if on a WC.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        thanks a lot.

  26. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Pope
    Tomori Soy TAA
    KDB Pulisic Mane Maddison
    Vardy Kane Abraham

    Subs: Button/Lund/Rico/Donks

    Thoughts on this and who to captain

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Team looks fabulous. I'd go Vardy, but Kane could be nice differential - 17% ownership, but I would imagine a lot of those are zombie teams.

  27. Sarri-ball
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    better combo for december xmas rotation etc

    a) Son/kdb (2 free swaps)
    b) alli/sterling (1 swap)

    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

  28. Mike-Kovic
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    kelly -> tomori or aurier?

    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Aurier

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        is aurier nailed though ?

    2. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Kelly might come good. Ward injury

  29. GunnerStorm
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Is there a way to look at past weeks captain pole results?

  30. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Doherty or Van Aanholt?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      PVA for me, fixtures great until gw30 apart from 22/23