Pro Pundits - Simon

Why opportunity trumps ability for goal-scoring FPL forwards

Recently I read the book ‘American Sniper’ (bear with me here) which, if you’re not familiar with it, is the autobiography of Chris Kyle, a former US Navy SEAL sniper who totalled a record 150 confirmed kills during his two tours in Iraq.

Reading it, I was surprised to learn that, despite being such a prolific sniper, Kyle was, in fact, considered a fairly mediocre marksman and the reason that he claimed so many kills was actually less to do with his skill and more to do with the number of shooting opportunities he had as a result of being so frequently located in dangerous environments.

Obviously my mind is usually (at least) half on Fantasy Football so, while I was reading this, I started to wonder if a similar principle might be true for top Premier League strikers; whether accuracy is the most important thing when it comes to scoring goals, or is goalscoring more a product of the volume of opportunities that a player has to score.

It occurred to me that the answer to this question might be significant not only for predicting which players will score the most but also for judging form sustainability and true player value.

To try and figure this out I took the average number of goal attempts (a measure of scoring opportunity) and the average shot accuracy of the Premier League’s five top-scoring forwards and compared these to the same statistics for the 10 top-scoring forwards over the last four full seasons.

Does opportunity trump ability in FPL?

The idea was that, if there was a notable difference between the two groups, it could help identify which attribute was most important.

What I found was that accuracy between the top five group and the top 10 one was identical. Both groups on average, were on target with 43.5% of their shots.

However, comparing the volume of attempts, the average for the Top five was 21% higher than the Top 10 group.

So what does this all mean for FPL? Well, it suggests that the number of opportunities a striker has to score is, on average, a more important factor than accuracy in distinguishing the very best strikers.

Admittedly, the idea that more chances equals more goals seems fairly obvious. That said, what I do think is interesting is how this evidence illustrates the conditional nature of skill with respect to goalscoring.

If opportunity effectively trumps ability, we need to put greater emphasis on the context in which the striker is operating as this may significantly influence their returns.

Kane’s goal-scoring form has dropped off ever since he started occupying a deeper role and shooting less often

For example, when we think of Harry Kane (£10.8m), we may think of a striker capable of scoring 30 league goals, as he did in the 2017/18 season, and we might believe that it’s only a matter of time until he does it again, such is his reputation.

But when you look at Kane’s goal attempt statistics (adjusted for minutes played) last season and this current season so far, you can see that they have declined significantly since 2017/18, as has his goal output. Yes, he’s scoring goals, but arguably not at a rate to justify his current cost.

Kane’s shot accuracy has not changed dramatically season over season and there is little to suggest he has become an inherently less skillful player.

Instead, the implication is that negative changes have occurred to the context in which he operates. Spurs and Kane no longer play in a way that is as conducive to maximising his scoring returns, yet he is valued and generally perceived as a premium striker.

Of course, this decline occurred under Mauricio Pochettino and the introduction of Jose Mourinho as manager may well have a positive influence on Kane’s returns though, it’s worth highlighting, that another notable victim of the effects of diminishing opportunities over recent seasons was Romelu Lukaku, who experienced this downturn at Manchester United under Mourinho.

The significance of opportunity volume for goal scoring may, potentially, also be used to predict the sustainability of current goalscoring form and, maybe, even when goals might come.

Often, doing well in FPL relies not being overly influenced by the past or present and successfully predicting what will happen next. Goals scored to date can be misleading as to a striker’s prospects if they are not accompanied by a sustainable supply of opportunities.

Despite all his attacking returns, Wilson has not shot very often this season

Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson (£7.7m), who scored five goals in his opening seven Gameweeks is an example of unsustainable scoring overperformance compared to scoring opportunities.

So far he has registered just 17 attempts on goal in 13 matches so it’s not all that surprising, therefore, that he has not scored since Gameweek 7, yet his early scoring record would have painted a picture of a player who would be expected to continue to score consistently.

Again, context is important. Changes in team strategy, personnel, motivation, confidence, stage of the season and, of course, opposition can all help to create an environment that either stymies or invigorates the number of opportunities that a striker will receive and, it follows, their scoring prospects.

Looking out for potential variations in key factors affecting scoring opportunities can help FPL managers make positive, forward-thinking decisions.

There are some necessary caveats to be made, of course. I’ve looked at a relatively small sample size and, although the trend is apparent and fairly consistent over the time period, it’s probably too limited to be considered conclusive.

Furthermore, while there does appear to be a stronger correlation between goal scoring opportunities and goals scored than between accuracy and goals scored, this will inevitably be one of many factors at play here and, thus, may only be indicative of the apparent trend.

Historically, Vardy has been an exception to this rule although he has started shooting more often in recent weeks

Naturally, for every rule, there are also exceptions, the most notable example in recent seasons being Jamie Vardy (£9.7m). The Leicester man has somehow managed to consistently score lots of goals despite having had a fraction of the opportunities that other top scorers receive, although rather ominously, his volume of shots is actually on the up in recent weeks.

In the opposite direction, you have the likes of Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic who had more attempts than anybody last season (131) and shot accuracy akin to Sergio Aguero’s (36.4) and yet managed only 11 goals, joint 14th for strikers.

Applying all this to my own forwards, I’m reasonably happy with Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Danny Ings (£6.0m) who both offer a high rate of attempts per their minutes played (40 and 29 respectively) with good fixtures to come.

How I’m lining up for Gameweek 14

Vardy on the other hand has only managed 31 chances, despite playing by far the most minutes of the three. For reasons given, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise and, to some extent, I’m inclined to ignore it.

What is concerning however, is that his shot accuracy does look unsustainably high, even by his standards (64.5%), which would suggest that at least some regression is imminent.

However, with his coming fixtures, I’m unlikely to be ditching Vardy any time soon, though Wolves’ Raul Jiménez (£7.5m) appears to offer the ideal balance of attempts (41) and fixtures and so offers a strong alternative should I need one.

Finally, it must be said that the easiest way to test this theory and apply it to your own Fantasy team is to use the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area. The tables and comparison tools available there can help you conduct research on the aforementioned statistics with ease each and every Gameweek.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBERS AREA HOME PAGE

1,344 Comments Post a Comment
  1. palace ash
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    A) Ings and PvA
    B) Jimenez and Kelly

    1. Francescoli
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

  2. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Couple of quick questions

    1) Is Mount + Rashford >> Pulisic + Jimenez worth it?

    2) Is Tomori + Rashford >> Robbo + Ings worth it? Already have taa and martial if that makes a diff

    3) if 2 is worth it, I need to do it tonight else get priced out. Worth taking the gamble despite not getting clarity on Tammy?

    1. Francescoli
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Nah none of those are good moves

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Rashford is home to Villa though?

  3. Bruce Lee
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Guys Arsenal are top of their group and they played their B team

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Auba might disagree

      1. Bruce Lee
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Leno, Laca, Guendo, Ozil, Toriera and Pepe agree

    2. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Luiz, Sokratis, Guendouzi, Tierney and Aubameyang are not part of the B team.

      1. Bruce Lee
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Guendo didn't play

        4/11 1st team players... so you think that is not a B team?

        1. Bruce Lee
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          He didn't start *

  4. Francescoli
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    With Rico the only playing bench player, worth taking a hit here?

    Pope
    TAA Lundstram Soyuncu
    Mane Son Pulisic KDB
    Abraham* Vardy Jimenez

    Button Rico Janmaat Elneny

    A) No hit
    B) Abraham -> Rashford/Laca/Ings (-4)
    C) Janmaat -> Doherty/PVA (-4)

    1. FC Balls
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A, not taking hit puts you ahead of them that do.

  5. drughi
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Surely double up on Robbo and TAA is a good idea for the next 4 weeks ? I mean come on Brighton, everton, bournemouth and watford. Been unlucky so far not to have more CS. Should be atleast 2-3 CS in those fixtures plus some attacking returns

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Don’t think they’re really been unlucky after 13 games... one enough for me if any. Would rather the Leicester double up with their perhaps better next 4.

    2. Francescoli
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      If they let one in it’s tears. I’d rather just one and then one of Doherty or PVA and spend the change elsewhere

    3. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I'm weighing this up tbh but already have a solid back 4. It's either sell Chilwell which I don't wanna do, or bench or sell Lundy which again not something I fancy.

      Back 4 of Lundy Chil Soy TAA in a 4 4 2

    4. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Not IMO

      If they can’t keep clean sheets vs Norwich, southampton, Newcastle, Villa, Palace then it’s a waste of time.

  6. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Sell value of 7.8 on Abraham. I thought Jesus was too short sighted at first but now I think he could be a good punt just for the next two games and then switch back? Otherwise a -4 for Kane or Son.

    1. FC Balls
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Abraham is 50/50 atm. Wait until tomorrow and see what's up, I think he'll be ready

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Oh I’m certainly waiting. Thanks

  7. michaelington
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Back on the fpl addiction after a few seasons away, forgot how bad it was.

    So tempted by kdb to son but I should just hold right?

    Pope Ryan
    Diop Soy TAA Lund Rico
    Mane Kdb Mount Hayden Martial
    Vardy Abraham Jimenez

    Template mctemplate I know.

  8. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Aguero injury, Abraham injury, Mourinho's return, packed fixture schedule and a fixture swing have made the next 5+ GWs very interesting.

    If you are chasing OR then you should really be trying to make the most of this opportunity.

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah I feel like it’s a great opportunity to catch up but it could also punish people trying to be too clever.

    2. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Sometimes doing nothing is the hardest thing to do

    3. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      With 2FTs and 3.2itb, I feel it's the time to go a bit maverick, but it also feels a make or break time. I've looked at the likes of Zaha, PVA, Doherty, Alli, Jesus - players who weren't on my radar at all just a GW ago.

  9. Viper
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    How would this WC team look?

    Henderson

    Lundstram Baldock Tomori Robertson Rico

    Pulisic Mane KDB Perez Dendonker

    Vardy Kane Jimenez

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Nice so long as the blades' wheels don't fall off.

    2. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Caged

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I’m not gone on Perez but it’s a solid team

    4. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      kane to ings
      perez to son

      or
      kane-> lacazette and perez -> maddison

    5. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      It's a good team but I'd replace Baldock (too much Sheffield) and Rico (fixtures and form both not good and lost set pieces since Fraser is back).

    6. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      No Leicester defender is a poor choice.

  10. FC Balls
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Who is the better option?
    Alli or Pulisic?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Pulisic surely

    2. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      pulisic

  11. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on this?

    Dunk, Mount, Sterling, Deulofeu > Kelly, Moura, Pulisic, Kane -8

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      why kelly??

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Ward injury.

  12. Totti
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    need your help guys:

    Pope Ryan
    TAA soyuncu tomori lundstram kelly
    mane KDB mount mcginn cantwell
    vardy jimenez abraham

    1 FT 4.5 itb

    A) mcginn-> maddison or son
    B) mcginn and mount -> maddison and pulisic (-4)
    C) abraham and mount -> kane and maddison (-4) exact money
    D) other suggestion

    your replies would be higly appreciated

    1. FC Balls
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I would go A)
      Don't rush out Abraham yet, he's 50/50 atm, I would guess that he misses max on GW.

      1. Totti
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        A with son or maddison?

        and what about mount he might be benched as last 2 games

        1. FC Balls
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          A with Son. Mount could be benched, but I wouldn't take a hit to get him out. I would assume that Lamp plays Mount because it's a game where he needs offensive output. If he benches Mount again then get Mount out.

  13. Where dahoud at
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    1ft what would u do?

    Pope
    Lundstram, taa, Pereira
    Pulisic, kdb, mane, Maddison
    Abraham, vardy, ings

    Bench, mcgovern, o'connell, cathcart, cantwell

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      abraham -> jimmy

    2. FC Balls
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Good team, leave it be for 2 ft next week.

    3. markus808
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I have a good one, I have a pretty similar team attack-wise, did KDB to Son, he's away points are mediocre, also Mancity is done 😉

      1. markus808
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Magnus Carlsen does not have any City players too if you need more proof.

  14. LM00091
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    G2G for GW14?
    (3-5-2)
    Ryan / (Button)
    TAA, Söyüncü, Tomori (Lundstram, Rico)
    Pulisic, Maddison, Mane, KDB, Son
    Vardy, Abraham (Greenwood)

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      yes for sure

  15. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Bench one:

    a) Lund (wol)
    b) Mount (WHU)
    c) Chilwell (EVE)
    d) Soy (EVE)

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      D

    2. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      D

    3. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A all the way

  16. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Do we think Mount starts?

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      i don't think so
      as kovacic kante jorginho more strong

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        They don’t need to be defensively strong against West Ham, we suck!

      2. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Lampard loves Mount. He’ll play a lot...and I don’t think starting or sub will bother him either...Seems like a great team player.

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

    3. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Should do. May not play in tougher fixtures though.

    4. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I do, yes. I transferred him out though in order to match up my Pulisic up to my brothers Mason Mount. Swords drawn and an even fight coming up.

    5. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I think he does.

  17. Klaren
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Any ideas on what to do with 2 FT?

    Gazzaniga Button
    TAA, Chilwell, Lundstram, Rico, Reid
    Mane, KDB, Son, Martial, Dendoncker
    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez

    0.2 itb

  18. The Rock
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Pope
    Soyuncu, Lundstram, Tomori
    Sterling, KDB, Mount, Maddison
    Abraham, Auba, Vardy
    Gazzaniga, Dendoncker, Rico, Janmaat

    2 FT. 0.5 in the bank

    A) Auba and Mount to Mane and Ings
    B) Auba, and Rico/Janmaat to Jimenez and Trent
    C) Auba, Mount and Rico/Janmaat to Jimenez, Pulisic and Trent for a 4 point hit.

  19. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Which game over the next three do you think Mane will get rested after getting 90 last night?

    A) GW13 Vs Brighton

    B) GW14 VS Everton

    C) Gw15 vs Bournemouth

    D) He will start all three but come off early some games

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      E

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      bournemouth or watford, if any
      can't see him missing brighton or the derby

  20. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    This is my current team.

    Pope
    Aurier, Soyuncu, Lundstram
    Salah, Manè, Maddison, Mount
    Vardy, Rashford, Abraham

    Button, Cantwell, Rico, Saiss 1ft 1.9itb

    Thoughts here?

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Mount to Pulisic?

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Definitely an option. You don’t think Mount will start?

        1. Klaren
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          He should start, in fact if one will be benched, it's more likely to be Pulisic between the two due to recent minutes and tight schedule next week.

  21. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Any news on Cantwell?

    1. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Farke's press conference is tomorrow, so should get an update then.

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Cool ta

  22. bjarnia87
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    start one:
    A) lundstram
    B) zouma

    1. The Rock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

  23. Am sorry to say again it�…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Cantwell for captaincy this week vs Arsenal?

    1. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Triple captain

  24. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Tammy & KDB -> Kane & Pulisic?

    1. Hitmonlee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I really struggle with the idea of letting KDB go.. feel like he’s a season keeper.. which makes me think you have to pick Son or Kane!

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      If Tammy is confirmed out and moves are for free then yes!

  25. Dr Dream
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Abraham had a great golden patch early in the season...but actually Ings has been just as good of late. Maybe time to cash in injury or not...

    Fixtures help.

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I like Ings but with his injury record I can see his minutes being managed over the busy festive period. They really need to keep him fit.

      1. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Aye. With a better injury record and a different team he’d be right up there with the best...sadly...he’s stuck with both...

  26. Totti
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    and now the most difficult question
    who will get more points in the coming gameweeks?

    A) son
    B) maddison

    I'm a vardy and mount owner and non-owner of pulisic and no spurs coverage

  27. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Nobody mentioning Pukkhi as an Abraham replacement. I mean, he is up against Arsenal 😉

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      I can see him doing really well this week.

    2. FPLShaqiri
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      He will finally repay everyone (or just me?) that kept him through 7 blanks!

  28. DAVESAVES
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Son or Pulisic?

    1. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Son. I’ve just got Pulisic and happy to do so but Son will be next. Son is proven over and over...Pulisic is new....so...well...i’ve Played this game a long time and seen many Pulisic’s..

      Time is the decider,..not a handful of games.

      1. Hibbo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Got, got.

  29. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    a) Play HBarnes vs Everton or
    b) Play Moutinho vs Sheffield

    Likelihood is if Tammy doesn't play, whoever I bench will come off bench anyway.

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

  30. Hitmonlee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Repeat of a Kane hat trick (2015) vs Bournemouth this GW

    Get ready for the bandwagon!

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      ohhhhh
      2015!!!
      🙂
      may be mate who knows 🙂