Pro Pundits - Simon

Why opportunity trumps ability for goal-scoring FPL forwards

Recently I read the book ‘American Sniper’ (bear with me here) which, if you’re not familiar with it, is the autobiography of Chris Kyle, a former US Navy SEAL sniper who totalled a record 150 confirmed kills during his two tours in Iraq.

Reading it, I was surprised to learn that, despite being such a prolific sniper, Kyle was, in fact, considered a fairly mediocre marksman and the reason that he claimed so many kills was actually less to do with his skill and more to do with the number of shooting opportunities he had as a result of being so frequently located in dangerous environments.

Obviously my mind is usually (at least) half on Fantasy Football so, while I was reading this, I started to wonder if a similar principle might be true for top Premier League strikers; whether accuracy is the most important thing when it comes to scoring goals, or is goalscoring more a product of the volume of opportunities that a player has to score.

It occurred to me that the answer to this question might be significant not only for predicting which players will score the most but also for judging form sustainability and true player value.

To try and figure this out I took the average number of goal attempts (a measure of scoring opportunity) and the average shot accuracy of the Premier League’s five top-scoring forwards and compared these to the same statistics for the 10 top-scoring forwards over the last four full seasons.

Does opportunity trump ability in FPL?

The idea was that, if there was a notable difference between the two groups, it could help identify which attribute was most important.

What I found was that accuracy between the top five group and the top 10 one was identical. Both groups on average, were on target with 43.5% of their shots.

However, comparing the volume of attempts, the average for the Top five was 21% higher than the Top 10 group.

So what does this all mean for FPL? Well, it suggests that the number of opportunities a striker has to score is, on average, a more important factor than accuracy in distinguishing the very best strikers.

Admittedly, the idea that more chances equals more goals seems fairly obvious. That said, what I do think is interesting is how this evidence illustrates the conditional nature of skill with respect to goalscoring.

If opportunity effectively trumps ability, we need to put greater emphasis on the context in which the striker is operating as this may significantly influence their returns.

Kane’s goal-scoring form has dropped off ever since he started occupying a deeper role and shooting less often

For example, when we think of Harry Kane (£10.8m), we may think of a striker capable of scoring 30 league goals, as he did in the 2017/18 season, and we might believe that it’s only a matter of time until he does it again, such is his reputation.

But when you look at Kane’s goal attempt statistics (adjusted for minutes played) last season and this current season so far, you can see that they have declined significantly since 2017/18, as has his goal output. Yes, he’s scoring goals, but arguably not at a rate to justify his current cost.

Kane’s shot accuracy has not changed dramatically season over season and there is little to suggest he has become an inherently less skillful player.

Instead, the implication is that negative changes have occurred to the context in which he operates. Spurs and Kane no longer play in a way that is as conducive to maximising his scoring returns, yet he is valued and generally perceived as a premium striker.

Of course, this decline occurred under Mauricio Pochettino and the introduction of Jose Mourinho as manager may well have a positive influence on Kane’s returns though, it’s worth highlighting, that another notable victim of the effects of diminishing opportunities over recent seasons was Romelu Lukaku, who experienced this downturn at Manchester United under Mourinho.

The significance of opportunity volume for goal scoring may, potentially, also be used to predict the sustainability of current goalscoring form and, maybe, even when goals might come.

Often, doing well in FPL relies not being overly influenced by the past or present and successfully predicting what will happen next. Goals scored to date can be misleading as to a striker’s prospects if they are not accompanied by a sustainable supply of opportunities.

Despite all his attacking returns, Wilson has not shot very often this season

Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson (£7.7m), who scored five goals in his opening seven Gameweeks is an example of unsustainable scoring overperformance compared to scoring opportunities.

So far he has registered just 17 attempts on goal in 13 matches so it’s not all that surprising, therefore, that he has not scored since Gameweek 7, yet his early scoring record would have painted a picture of a player who would be expected to continue to score consistently.

Again, context is important. Changes in team strategy, personnel, motivation, confidence, stage of the season and, of course, opposition can all help to create an environment that either stymies or invigorates the number of opportunities that a striker will receive and, it follows, their scoring prospects.

Looking out for potential variations in key factors affecting scoring opportunities can help FPL managers make positive, forward-thinking decisions.

There are some necessary caveats to be made, of course. I’ve looked at a relatively small sample size and, although the trend is apparent and fairly consistent over the time period, it’s probably too limited to be considered conclusive.

Furthermore, while there does appear to be a stronger correlation between goal scoring opportunities and goals scored than between accuracy and goals scored, this will inevitably be one of many factors at play here and, thus, may only be indicative of the apparent trend.

Historically, Vardy has been an exception to this rule although he has started shooting more often in recent weeks

Naturally, for every rule, there are also exceptions, the most notable example in recent seasons being Jamie Vardy (£9.7m). The Leicester man has somehow managed to consistently score lots of goals despite having had a fraction of the opportunities that other top scorers receive, although rather ominously, his volume of shots is actually on the up in recent weeks.

In the opposite direction, you have the likes of Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic who had more attempts than anybody last season (131) and shot accuracy akin to Sergio Aguero’s (36.4) and yet managed only 11 goals, joint 14th for strikers.

Applying all this to my own forwards, I’m reasonably happy with Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Danny Ings (£6.0m) who both offer a high rate of attempts per their minutes played (40 and 29 respectively) with good fixtures to come.

How I’m lining up for Gameweek 14

Vardy on the other hand has only managed 31 chances, despite playing by far the most minutes of the three. For reasons given, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise and, to some extent, I’m inclined to ignore it.

What is concerning however, is that his shot accuracy does look unsustainably high, even by his standards (64.5%), which would suggest that at least some regression is imminent.

However, with his coming fixtures, I’m unlikely to be ditching Vardy any time soon, though Wolves’ Raul Jiménez (£7.5m) appears to offer the ideal balance of attempts (41) and fixtures and so offers a strong alternative should I need one.

Finally, it must be said that the easiest way to test this theory and apply it to your own Fantasy team is to use the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area. The tables and comparison tools available there can help you conduct research on the aforementioned statistics with ease each and every Gameweek.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBERS AREA HOME PAGE

1,344 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPLMarc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Mane, Sterling, Mount, Cantwell
    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez

    ....is my current team. I'm considering making Abraham into Rashford, Kane or Ings but quite like this plan:

    Mane, Sterling, Son, Martial
    Vardy, Jimenez (then Abraham), Ayew

    What do you think?

  2. tbhogal
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    What option is best here guys?? Have 2FT's 0.9 itb..

    A) Sterling > Son & Mount > Pulisic
    B) Mount > Tielemans & Tammy > Jimenez

    Pope (Button)
    Tomori, Soyuncu, TAA, Lundstrom (Rico)
    Salah, KDB, Sterling, Mount (Cantwell)
    Tammy, Vardy (Greenwood)..

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A easy choice for me

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

  3. Viper
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    Would you prefer

    A. Zaha + 5.0m 3rd striker

    B. Ings + 4.5m 5th midfielder

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      2

      1. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        *B lol

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B

  4. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    if tammy is out..

    does anyone like tammy > jesus

    I feel like it might be a good shout

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Not for me- fixtures not brilliant and transfer ready to happen when Aguero back

      1. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        aguero not back for a while though and jesus always scores when he starts

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      No, due to fixtures

      1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Jesus not explosive enough for me. Gash at pens too

  5. Alli
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    A) Robbo, Son, Tielemans
    B) Aurier, Son, Maddison
    C) Robbo, Pulisic, Maddison

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      B or C

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      Prefer B with Pulisic I rhink

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      A

    4. Aubaaaaa
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      If you have TAA, B

  6. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    How about...

    Sterling + Tammy + Dendonc > KDB +Son + Mousset -4 ?

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      prefer ings

    2. soup natsi
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      KdB is playing deeper now and City is not in great shape with not easy fixtures but like Mousset as a pick

  7. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 4 months ago

    2 free transfers and 2.6 m in bank. Best move (and carry one free) from Diop to

    A Robertson (and double Liverpool defence) or
    B Aurier

    Leaving Söyüncü as first bench in case Tammy out

    Pope
    TAA Lundstram Robertson /Aurier
    Mané KDB Martial Mount
    Vardy Jiménez Tammy *

    McGovern Söyüncü* Cantwell Rico

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 4 months ago

      dont bring in aurier, he's actually dog shite

      1. soup natsi
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        He's actually not a bad player, just a liability defensively and Jose use him like a winger

        1. OBAMA
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          he's pants.

          1. Party time
              4 years, 4 months ago

              Do you even watch football?

              1. Rhodes your boat
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 4 months ago

                *soccer, for obama

                1. Party time
                    4 years, 4 months ago

                    😆

          2. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Who would you bring in?

            1. ZimZalabim
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              what about PVA ?

              1. dunas_dog
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                4 years, 4 months ago

                Thanks- good suggestion

            2. Cahill
              • 13 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              chilly

              1. dunas_dog
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                4 years, 4 months ago

                Thanks. Not sure want to double up Leicester defence

        2. lifes a pitch
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Is mount to son possible?

          1. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Sadly .5 m short

      2. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        anyone making the tammy to jesus jump?

        BEAT THE CURVEEEE

        1. Cahill
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          yeah, the downward curve....

      3. King Crimson
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Is it madness to sell Tammy for Kane for a hit and a loss of 0.5m?

        1. OBAMA
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          nah

        2. soup natsi
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          team value doesn't win mini leagues, and I'm basically WCing to get Kane in

        3. D.Glynn
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I got Kane in for Tammy and Pulisic in for Raz.

        4. reeceon
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          im debating doing this for free.....

      4. Monkey Hanger
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Nice word stymies, and not one you read everyday. Interesting article which only goes to show that Vardy is the ultimate stat buster.

      5. reeceon
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        A) Mount > Son
        B) Tammy> Kane

        1. Viper
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Depends on team news. Probably A

        2. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Decide tomorrow, hopefully
          Lampard makes it clear either way

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            A if he’s fit

      6. Henryyy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Who would you C?

        A Vardy
        B Salah

        1. reeceon
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Salah

        2. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Salah a nice differential

        3. waldo666
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          B

        4. ZimZalabim
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I would go Vardy

          Salah played for the first time after city(10th) on Wednesday (27th)
          and looked very rusty I think he will need a game or two to get back up to speed but it is salah and hes playing brighton so u never know.

          The other thing is after brighton liverpool have everton midweek and watford on the following weekend I doubt he plays all four (including napoli) in such a short time span after just coming back from injury or atleast he gets taken off early in one of the next three I think everton is where he gets max mins so either brighton or watford he rests or has his mins managed.

          So I would go Vardy as captain owning salah is enough.
          Just my opinion

      7. Viper
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Alli or Martial?

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Alli currently

        2. ZimZalabim
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          alli
          Im thinking of shipping martial if not this week then def next

      8. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Any news on Tammy lads?

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Not yet, early news suggests it isn’t as bad as first expected but hopefully lamps enlightens us all tomorrow

          1. the dom 1
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Think I’ll keep him as I have some value tied up in him.

            1. Rhodes your boat
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              I’m hoping it’s just a game if he’s out, fingers crossed

      9. jimmy.floyd
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Ryan
        TAA Soy Lund Tomori
        Mane KDB Son Maddy
        Vardy Tammy

        Button Rico Dendoncker Connolly
        3.4 itb
        If Tammy is out:
        A Connolly to Jimmy
        B Dendoncker to Pulišić

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Maybe B

        2. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          B I think

      10. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Is Son gonna Rise tonight?

        Currently around 97 on full price predicter.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Easily could.

        2. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Praying he doesn’t, don’t buy yet, join the army of patient buyers

      11. Monkey Hanger
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Can feel it in my bones. GW14 going to be a season defining week for a lot of managers. Some seriously big fpl players being transferred in and out. Good luck all. 🙂

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          not really, good week to take hits, players being replaced by players out of form.

      12. ZimZalabim
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        chelsea vs west ham score predictions ?

        West ham late rally vs Spurs had some promising signs
        I expect Antonio to start from now on and maybe Rice as CB, Roberto could be dropped as well

        And if tammy is out and bats starts as is quite likely, how do you see that affecting chelsea attack ?

        1. Warby84
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          3-0 easy win regardless of Abraham

      13. SkeletONv01
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        So when italked about Lewandowski, he could fit premier league, i wanted him in pool, since they already worked together in borussia with Klopp, all i got was "pffffff lol hes too old, 30+", really? ;]

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I’m a reds fan. I say welcome

      14. Viper
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Would it be madness to WC & not include Jimenez?

        Currently thinking; Vardy Kane Ings

        1. Warby84
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I would go Jimenez...

        2. SkeletONv01
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Why would you include him tho? play 352, Vardy and Tammy already take place, or swap out one of em if you really want him ;]

        3. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I'd avoid him. Mousset over ings or switch after next 2 gws

        4. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Jiménez

        5. ZimZalabim
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I think those three look good for the next 4-5 atleast

      15. Warby84
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Pope
        Alex-Arnold Lundstrum Robertson
        Martial SalahVC Pulisic Maddison
        Jiminez VardyC Abraham

        Tielemans Mings Lascelles

        Gtg?

        Tempted to go maddi/Abraham —>> Kane/Fleck -8 is this mental???

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I was thinking getting Fleck in for Doug Luiz as my 5th mid

      16. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Auba > Kane for free??

        1. soup natsi
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Do it

        2. SkeletONv01
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Kane will never go close my team this season, got burned too many times.

          1. SkeletONv01
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            The question is tho, will you C him? If not hes a waste of funds obv.

        3. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Go for it

      17. soup natsi
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        How about this for a WC then?

        Henderson
        TAA, Aurier, Lund, Soy, (Rico)
        Salah, Son, Pulisic, Maddison, McGinn
        Vardy, Jimmy, Ings

        1. Weasel Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Decent but could have benching headaches.

        2. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Enjoy the bench headaches mate 🙂

        3. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Nice team, well balanced

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            But benching headaches could hurt you

        4. SkeletONv01
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Son out, Pulisic out, McGinn?? really? 😛 Ings out, Jimmy out IMO ;]

          1. soup natsi
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah I get Ings and McGinn shouts but Pulisic out? Why?

          2. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Son & Pulisic & INngs & Jimmy out? what?! lol

        5. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Tbf. Soy/Aurier, Mcginn and Rico is a manageable bench

        6. soup natsi
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Idea is McGinn first on the bench for the next 3 (mun, che, LEI), and after that he rotates well with Soy and Aurier. Have him since gw1 and kind of like the guy. Could swap for Cantwell - which means keeping KdB for Maddison and going Robbo over TAA, which isn't too bad.

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            I'd do that swap mate.

      18. Tsparkes10
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        So if Tammy is out. CHO, Tammy, Mount, Tierney to Son, Mousset, Pulisic, Williams? (-8)

        Yeet or skeet

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Don’t do a -8... keep mount one more week

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Over Son of Pulisic? If the 4 I get rid of don't play then Son or pulisic could cover the hit themselves

        2. SkeletONv01
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Wait thats new, Tammy is out?

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            ? "if Tammy is out"

        3. waldo666
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Na

      19. tbhogal
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Sterling owners have you had enough of him?

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Sadly yes, also wasn’t too impressed with what I saw on Tuesday

        2. waldo666
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          I have indeed.

        3. Weasel Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Yes

          If Tammy is injured its Sterling + Tammy to Son + Kane.
          I think.

      20. SuperMane Returns
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        What's the most Tammy could feasibly drop by the time he plays next?

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Probably just drop tomorrow night if at all

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Depends on press conference tomorrow

          2. SuperMane Returns
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            Dont you think he will drop tonight? hes plummeting like a stone.

      21. Bruno Commando
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Guys, need some advice on the below 2 options. Which is a better option to replace Sterling and Greenwood? I will be keeping Sterling for this weekend against Newcastle and carry my FT over.

        A) Kane + Tielemans
        B) Kane + Perez
        C) Son + Jimenez

        Pope
        Tomori // TAA // Soy // Lunds
        Sterling // Mane // KDB // Mount
        Vardy // Tammy

        Skeletenburg // Rico // Dendoncker // Greenwood

        1. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          A because Jimenez fixture this week means he blanks 🙂

          1. Bruno Commando
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 4 months ago

            I am actually gonna perform the 2 transfers next week as I'm keeping Sterling for this week since it's against Newcastle. Plus I don't want to take a hit.

            1. Salah’s Sonnet
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 4 months ago

              If he can't score against the likes of Southampton, Palace, Wolves, Norwich or Brighton, what makes you think he'll score against Newcastle who will likely set up a wall for 90 mins?

      22. ItOnlyTook9Years
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Best 4.5 mid bench fodder?

      23. 1justlookin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Anyone considering Batshuayi if Tammy is out.

        Between him and Ings for me.

        1. Warby84
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 4 months ago

          Never considered..

      24. Warby84
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 4 months ago

        Son vs Kane... Think son offers better value..

        Maddison/Abraham out..

        Son plus Mousset 0.9itb
        Kane plus Fleck 0 itb

        -8 though, so very unsure