Spot the Differential

Differentials emerging in defence ahead of Christmas period

Fantasy Premier League managers may find some interesting differential options in defence from Gameweek 17 onwards.

The last round of action saw a welcome return to form for a number of richly-owned offensive assets.

There were double-digit hauls for the likes of Harry Kane (£10.9m), Jamie Vardy (£10.1m), Mohamed Salah (£12.2m), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.8m) and Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and many of these could continue to set the agenda for premium spending over Christmas.

However, as always, five of the top 10 Gameweek 16 scorers were owned by 5% of Fantasy managers or less. 

There is still plenty of budget value to capitalise on, especially among backline assets, which will be the focus of this latest Spot the Differential article.

Vicente Guaita 

Price: £5.1m 

Ownership: 2.1% 

GW17 Opponent: Brighton and Hove Albion (home)

With three consecutive clean sheets in a row, it’s becoming hard to ignore Vicente Guaita (£5.1m) and the Crystal Palace defence. 

Since Gameweek 14, no goalkeeper has scored as many Guaita, who has amassed 26 points, more than the 24 recorded by Vardy, over that period.

The Palace shot-stopper has been helped by a decent run of generous fixtures which continue to have appeal all the way up to New Year’s Day. 

It seems surprising that more FPL managers own the injured Hugo Lloris (£5.3m) than Guaita, even though the injured Spurs man in 3.6%. But that just highlights the potential for differential gains that Guaita offers and I’d be surprised if his ownership did not rise between now and the beginning of 2020.

Perhaps the biggest concern with Crystal Palace is the injuries that are being picked up by their defenders recently, including Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m), Joel Ward (£4.4m) and Jeffrey Schlupp (£5.5m) while Mamadou Sakho (£5.0m) is suspended for the next two. 

This may weaken them during the festive fixtures although ongoing defensive absences haven’t stopped them in recent outings. 

Some might consider Kasper Schmeichel (£5.3m) for a little more of their budget given Leicester’s defensive form but he still has to face Manchester City and Liverpool in Gamweeks 18 and 19 respectively.

This weekend, Gutaita goes up against Palace’s rivals Brighton who have the seventh-worst away record in the league since August and only three teams have scored fewer goals on their travels since Gameweek 1 too.

Jonny Evans

Price: £5.2m

Ownership: 4.8%

GW17 Opponent: Norwich City (home)

After a fantastic run of form that has catapulted Leicester second place in the league, you would be forgiven to think that all of their defenders would be highly owned.

But despite being a regular starter for the Foxes, Jonny Evans (£5.2m) is still a de facto differential, sat in just 4.8% of teams.

It might seem strange that he hasn’t attracted more attention but up until very recently, Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.1m) was offering exactly the same as Evans but for much cheaper.

However, with their prices now similar, the former Manchester United man is starting to look more attractive.

He has scored 20 points over the last two Gameweeks and last weekend he had more penalty touches (four) than Kane (3), indicating that he can be a threat for the Foxes.

Leicester have kept five clean sheets in their last seven games and are more than capable of making it six from eight against a Norwich team with the worst away record in the league. 

Bigger tests lie ahead after that, with a trip to the Etihad followed by hosting Liverpool on Boxing Day and it may be a tough ask for Leicester to hope for clean sheets in those matches. 

But one thing is for certain, they are a completely different unit under Brendan Rodgers, both in defence and attack. Therefore, Evans is a viable long term pick if you don’t currently have anyone from the Leicester defence.

George Baldock

Price: £4.8m 

Ownership: 5.0% 

GW17 Opponent: Aston Villa (home)

If you missed out on the John Lundstram (£5.1m) bandwagon or are looking to double up on Sheffield United defensive assets then look no further than George Baldock (£4.8m).

In recent weeks, the right wing-back has shot up to fifth for FPL points scored among defenders. As things stand, Baldock has registered a higher season total than Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m).

Of course, his tally received a massive boost after he found the net and assisted against Norwich last Sunday, but he has actually outscored Lundstram by 34 points to 31 since Gameweek 11 anyway.

That said, Sheffield United’s lack of clean sheets of late is slightly problematic. Since Gameweek 9 they have only kept one and it’s somewhat surprising that they conceded three goals in their last two games, against Newcastle United and Norwich.

However, Baldock’s offensive potential combined with Aston Villa’s defensive problems could see him register more attacking returns.

978 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Threat Level Midnight
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    GTG?

    Pope
    VVD-Lund-Soy
    Mane (C)-Alli-KDB-Maddy-Pulisic
    Vardy (VC)- Rashford

    Button-Kelly-Tomori-Connoly

    1. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Nice team, looks g2g to me

  2. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Start Mousset or Kelly?

    1. patricio33
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mr. Mou

    2. El Lobito 10
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Da Mousse

    3. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mou

    4. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mousse

  3. BOATIES FC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Tielamans and Jimmy >> Rashford and Grealish -4?

    1. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Not for a -4

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No.

    3. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Yup

    4. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Do it

    5. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Nah - Jimmy has Nor next as well.

  4. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to drop for Tammy ?

    Ings or Jimenez ?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Im droppings Ings. Feel really fortunate the last 4 gws, its bound to end

    2. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I did Jimmy to Tammy (regret it a bit.)

      Might do Ings to Jimmy or Rash in 2 weeks time.

    3. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Ings has form and fixtures

      Jimenez hasnt scored in 3 and faces 3 top 6 teams over next 4

  5. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Bench 2 with order, kely lund grealish aurier

  6. KUNingas
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    G2G? 1FT and 0.7ITB

    Ryan
    TAA, Soyuncu, Lund
    Mane (vc), KDB, Son, Maddison
    Vardy (c), Abraham, Jimenez

    Button, Targett, Cantwell, Rico

  7. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hendo

    Trent - Robbo - Chilwe - Lord - Rico
    Mane - Son - Alli - Maddison - D. Luiz
    Mousset - Vardy - Abraham

    0.2 itb, 2 FTs and not a Clue what to do.. Really dont want to remove any of my players and just swapping Luiz for another cheaper fodder seems like a Waste now that Liverpool players are blanking soon. Shame that this Watford game seems so attractive...

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      With a different team but similar conundrum, I've done Hendo > Pope

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks for the suggestion but Im not bringing Pope back in, hes looked awful lately. Worst goal keeping stats in the League in terms of stopping goals.

        1. claretparrot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Fair and solid reasoning. My view is that he's not become a bad keeper all of a sudden and with the better fixtures to come his form will even out. Let's see!

          Good luck

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            You too!

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I’d downgrade Robbo to accommodate Rashford but just an idea

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Removing a Liverpool defender for Cahill is an option Im looking at.

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          That’s cool

        2. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          One of those moves that feels so horribly wrong, but is for the best medium term.

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            For sure... Likely going to end up having to take a hit in the near future if I don't do it now.

    3. Klein
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      How does rico to kelly look? Not much you can do there. Better than burning ft i guess.

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I think it's a waste because Rico is basically fodder. So Kelly is just waste of .2 even though I agree he's the better pick. I just don't see him being on the pitch almost ever

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Huge investment in defense 😮
      Wait for Liverpool team news. Generally comes 10 minutes early with some itks around. If Taa is benched, I'd definitely sell him

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He was just benched though. But good tip to wait and hope for early team news!

    5. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hmm. Robbo to Cahill allows Mane + KDB and Mousset + Rashford next gw. That seems pretty good for the Christmas period

  8. Steirish
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Start pulisic or Mousett?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Puli

  9. Lexi2014
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on my team? Good to go?

    Pope (Heaton)
    Aurier / Pereira / Lundstram/ VVD (Cathcart)
    Mane / Alli / KDB (Yarmolenko/Cantwell)
    Vardy / Ings / Jimenez

    2 FTs and £0.2itb

  10. Mufc202020
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hi all, please pick two who you would start this gameweek:

    A)LUNDSTRAM
    B)DOHERTY
    C)MOUSSET
    D)GREALISH
    E) TOMORI

    Thanks!!!

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Lund and Mouss/Grealish. Toss a coin for the second one

    2. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      AC

  11. Rolls-Royce
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to captain out of this lot?

    A) Salah
    B) Mane
    C) Vardy

    1. Mufc202020
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

  12. bruuuno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Start Pope (NEW) or Henderson (AVL)?

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pope, especially if you're starting Lund

      1. bruuuno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hendo

      1. bruuuno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Even if starting Lund as well?

    3. Mufc202020
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hendo

    4. Lexi2014
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pope

  13. lindeg
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Would you rather get Alli this week or Son next week? I already have Gazza and Aurier.

  14. Simon69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts? G2G or better to split the risk and start a Palace defender over Lundstram? Cheers!

    Henderson

    TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram

    Maddison, Mane (vc) , Son, Ali, Pulisic

    Rashford, Vardy (c)

    Subs: Button, Kelly, Cahill, Wickham

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I've seen a lot of posters that think Brighton will get a goal against Palace so i think you have probably done right. Plus, Lundstram is in the team as much for attacking returns as defensive so you have both bases covered.

      1. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Bit late but thanks mate!

  15. KingOllie
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    need a little help - i really wanted to save FT but Dilva probably wont play, shall i:

    a) Dilva -> Grealish for free
    b) Save and let lundstram sub in (although i feel like some of my other players are at risk)

    Hendo
    Periera Chilwell Robertson
    Mane Pulisic Son Dilva*
    Vardy Ings Rashy

    Lundstram, Hayden, Taylor

  16. Ziyech on the Bench
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Liverpool score prediction?
    Leicester score prediction?

    1. PocketZola
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      3-1 pool

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      3-0 Liv
      5-0 Lei

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      5-0
      3-1

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Both 3-0

    5. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Salah or Vardy c

  17. pjomara
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to bench - Son, KDB, Ings, Jimenez, Pulisic?

    1. PocketZola
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pulisic definitely

    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      jesus.

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimbo

    4. lindeg
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimi

    5. I Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimenez

    6. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      What a team!

      Bench or sell Jimi

  18. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Assuming I proceed with my WC next week, what would you use a FT on for 1 week punt ? 0 itb.

    Henderson
    Trent, Doherty, Lundstram, Soyuncu
    Mane, Salah, KDB
    Tammy, Mousset, Vardy
    (Montoya, Cantwell, Saka)

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Doh to someone I guess

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah I'm thinking Doherty to Chilwell or Trent to Robbo if we get early team news and he is rested.

        1. SADIO SANÉ
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          yeah Doh to Chilwell seems alright to me

  19. Feanor
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    https://theathletic.com/1450274/2019/12/13/liverpool-have-been-tracking-minamino-since-he-played-up-front-with-forlan-and-klopp-kept-the-deal-secret-while-his-players-raved-about-the-forward/

    Despite playing against Liverpool in this season’s Champions League, Minamino will be eligible to feature for them when the knockout stages begin in February following a rule change by UEFA last year.

    Klopp believes he will have a crucial role to play in the pursuit of glory in the second half of the season and will enable him to rotate his star-studded frontline of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino to a greater degree. His arrival is also likely to lead to youngsters Rhian Brewster and Curtis Jones going out on loan next month.

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks for this.

    2. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      How do Liverpool keep getting those players. Looks a huge talent. Shaq and lallana are finished

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Well theyre out there.

  20. SHOWSTOPPERRR
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Guys can you please share the summary of all injuries /press conferences?

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Nothing new.

    2. Dr. Mantis Toboggan
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      It's in the Hot Topics

  21. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Blimey, when did Charlie Dimmock get so fat?

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      a while now, possibly doubled in size

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Haven't seen on TV for years. so round.

  22. Dele
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Please pick one...

    A) Grealish & Tammy
    or
    B) McGinn & Rashford

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. PocketZola
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Trossard rash

  23. Visionaries
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    A Jim > Abraham
    B Tomori > Zouma (probably bench anyway)
    C save

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I'd save.

  24. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Ryan
    TAA Söy Lund
    KDB Mane(V) Son Pulisic
    Vardy(C) Abraham Ings
    Button Cantwell Rico Tomori Rico
    Save and GTG?

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Very good to go.

  25. FirMinaMiMo
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Dunk or kelly ????

    Cant decide

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Dunk, bench Dunk.

    2. Babit1967
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Kelly

    3. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Dunk 100%

  26. Babit1967
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Any transfers sticking out?

    1 ft .4 itb

    Guaita

    Trent Robbo Soy

    Son Alli KDB Pullisic

    Vardy (c) Tammy Jimmy

    Lund Cantwell Rico

  27. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    I think its about time for a new article.

  28. jtreble
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Will Reece James play tomorrow?

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Good question.

      1. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Tomori's out: Rudiger or James for CHE cover for me. Tough call.

        1. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah, thats why I can't call it.

  29. Hochoki
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    which two to play??

    a. soyuncu
    b. chilwell
    c. lundstram
    d. mount

    1. Kryptonite666
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Chilwell for assist potential and Mount perhaps. Can't you play 3 ? Double Leicester against Norwich is tempting.

  30. Kryptonite666
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Guys SOS. Cannot make up my mind. Need to use one FT, 0.7 ITB

    Pope (Button)
    TAA Lundstram Soyuncu (Kelly) (Lowton)
    Mane KDB Son Maddison Mount
    Vardy Abraham Mousset

    Plan to do TAA + Mousset + Mount to Aurier + Rashford + Cantwell

    A. Downgrade Mount for Cantwell this week. Play Mousset this GW
    B. Pope to Guita this GW. Take -4 next week for above transfers
    C. Lowton to Aurier or some other defender

    1. Kryptonite666
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      * Plan to do TAA + Mousset + Mount to Aurier + Rashford + Cantwell next week