Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Why I’m betting against Vardy captaincy to make big FPL gains

Back from a nice vacation in Thailand, I’ve got a readymade excuse for being off my game a little for the last few days.

The last really good week I had was Gameweek 12 where I bet against Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) and Anthony Martial (£7.6m) was handed the armband against Brighton. This was one of five valiant attempts of betting against ‘Jammy’ Vardy.

It almost came through with Vardy managing his returns only after the 65th minute. I’ve soon realised this became a norm as the Leicester forward loves his second-half returns.

Martial didn’t do too badly either though and got two assists himself in a Gameweek he statistically outperformed Vardy.

I got a nice 83 points (Gameweek rank of 43k) with me being very early on the now prominent Vardy, Tammy Abraham (£7.9m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.5m) frontline which propelled me from 130k to 45k.

I’m sure you must be wondering why I call Vardy ‘jammy’. It’s not about the statistical over-performance for me. I know all about that. It’s more about the jam that AppleBonkers brought to my attention.

He got 50 minutes versus ten men against Newcastle United which led to a brace. Then he got 78 minutes against the ten men of Southampton and netted a hat-trick. Last time out Tyrone Mings (£4.5m) naively refusing to come off when he sustained a hamstring injury absolutely gifting him Leicester’s opening goal and then he got a nice 45 minute run out at a poor Aston Villa defence without their best centre-back.

After that amazing Gameweek 12, Mourinho was appointed by Tottenham Hotspur. I am a huge Jose fan and immediately realised that Harry Kane (£10.9m) was there for the taking as a differential.  Kane facing Bournemouth and West Ham in Gameweek 13 and 14 was something I simply could not ignore.

I told myself this is a two-week flirtation against Mr. Jammy Vardy and if it doesn’t work, I would bring the Leicester man back. I am extremely comfortable switching big-hitters this season as mentioned in my strategy here.

My thinking is that I will always back myself to go against the grain with a short-term switch especially when it involves captaincy to make quick ground.

The basic idea is that if more than 70% of my switches (I say switches and not gambles because they are all thought through) come through, I should find myself having another good season. People play this game with way too much fear for my liking.

Vardy outscored Kane by 10 points in those two weeks. Not much damage done in my books (except for when I saw Kane’s haul last Gameweek).

You have to think of some of these results like bad beat in Poker. You cannot afford to go on tilt. Temperament is everything and if the results don’t go your way, do not lose your shit. Correct your mistakes quickly and always try thinking without baggage.

I gave the Anti-Vardy strategy another go last weekend by putting the armband on Mohamed Salah (12.2m) facing a depleted Bournemouth. Salah got a nice 13-pointer and I found myself jumping from 138k to 60k only for Vardy to match Salah later and push me back further. Hamstrung Mr. Mings needs to be thanked here.

I’ve been pretty much dilly-dallying between 50k and 170k for the last ten Gameweeks. While some might get frustrated with this, I don’t see a huge problem with that and I’m very comfortable to hold ground in this range as I feel that I am two good ‘switch-hits’ away from pushing myself into the top 40k permanently. Holding position is a very underrated concept and I don’t mind it at all when I’m constantly finding myself gambling against the grain.

Having recently returned from my holiday, I found myself under-confident and all over the place. Football hadn’t been seen. Articles hadn’t been read. Stats hadn’t been scanned. I wasn’t early on Alli & Son and was upset off about that.

My advice to Fantasy managers is that when life comes in the way, find two hours for Match of the Day (pick your matches if you have lesser time) and 20 minutes for a quick scan of the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.

In the past three days, I’ve covered ground with my research. I feel like I am in a good place now and ready to take on December. I’ve caught up on the highlights, scanned the stats and read those beautiful reports by Neale and David.  

This is my current set up and I’m likely going to save this week. But there is one thing bothering me big time. I really really want Marcus Rashford (£8.9m).  

He is currently matching Sadio Mané (£12.3m) and Vardy for a lot less money. It genuinely feels like he’s at the cusp of superstardom. I am a Manchester United fan and this is by a distance the best I have seen him play. He genuinely looks unplayable.

For six years, I’ve not had a player that has me impatiently waiting for his next performance. I have that feeling right now and it’s absolutely beautiful. He just needs to be consistent.

The problem with wanting Rashford is that the current frontline is firing on all cylinders and is very difficult to sell. The move also needs to be probably funded by selling a Liverpool asset. Then there is the narrative that United are abysmal against a deep block and can only really play counter-attacking football against strong teams. Despite the results which support the narrative, I decided to look into the stats for the same.

Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)

Using the FFScout Member’s Area Flat-Track Bully Tool, I looked at Rashford’s stats against the top seven (The current top seven with Arsenal replacing Wolves) and then looked at his numbers in meetings with the other 13 teams.

The results were very interesting and in my opinion ‘myth-busting’. 

Rashford has a higher xG, more goals, more goal attempts and a much higher goal conversion rate against the top seven. Against the weaker teams, he has a higher xA, more goal attempts in the box, more big chances and more big chances created.

The goal conversion rate falls down from 35% to a staggering 9.7% against weaker opposition. This could be more chance than anything else and Rashford has only recently finding top form and his last two games being against tougher opposition might have something to do with those stats. This gives me enough conviction to make the move for Rashford either this week or next.

Until then, I will be pondering the merits of another switch-hit armband against Jammy Vardy. He plays the easiest defence in the league. But a certain FPL giant is finding form and he can No-Mo be ignored. I’ll leave you with this nice little stat. Good luck for the Gameweek!

2,278 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    On wildcard, Hayden or Dendoncker as 5th midfielder??

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hayden

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Dendonker

    3. We ain't got no histor…
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      What's your team?

  2. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Best replacement for Tomori (4.6 max)?

    A. Targett
    B. O'Connell (double up with Lundstram)
    C. Webster
    D. Rico (I`m not sure he is nailed 100%)
    E. Cahill (double up with Kelly)

    All players offers some goal threat. Why did Cahill miss GW14&15?

    1. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      a

  3. Up the tics
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Gazza
    TAA - Lundstram - Soyunca
    Mane - KDB - Alli - Mount
    Kane - Vardy - Tammy

    Cantwell - Kelly - Rico

    Left it late again but i have 2ft 0.2m itb and no idea what to do with atleast one transfer, it would be a waste to burn one. Anybody help me out?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mount to Grealish

      1. Up the tics
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thats one to consider, thank you

      2. Up the tics
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Although hes on 4 yellows, when does the threshold increase?

        1. Don Van Vliet
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          After this gameweek, I believe.

          1. Kip
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Nope, they changed the rules

  4. Jones Kusi
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Which option?
    A. KDB, Jimenez > Alli, Rashford
    B. Jimenez > 5.8 forward and next week KDB, Pulisic > Alli, Son
    C. KDB > Son
    D. Rico > Kelly
    E. Aurier, Jimenez > Kelly, Rashford

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

  5. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Wondering if Keita is going to become a regular starter. If he continues to perform like he did vs BOU then may just be a very valuable asset to own.

  6. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on this wildcard team? 0.0 in the bank

    Pope / Button

    TAA / Chilwel / Lund / Aurier / 3.9

    Mane / KDB / Alli / Cantwell / Dendoncker

    Abraham / Vardy / Rashford

    1. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      If you’re going to play 433 on most weeks, then fine.

      Otherwise, you’re too light in midfield and any other combination would mean you would’ve to play Cantwell week in, week out, which isn’t ideal imho

  7. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Good to go?

    Pope
    Aurier Soy Lund
    Mane KDB Son Alli Mount
    Vardy Rashford

    4.0; Cahill, Guilbert, Greenwood

    1. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      G2G

  8. Mesh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to ditch to get Alli?

    A. Tielemans
    B. Mount

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Tielemans

    2. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. Viper
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Neither this week

    4. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

  9. istanbul05
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to bench from:
    1) Lundstram (AVL)
    2) Zaha (BHA)
    3) Soyuncu (NOR)

    Pope,
    TAA, VVD, Lundstram, Soyuncu, Kelly,
    Mane, KDB, Alli, Zaha, Cantwell,
    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez.

    Cheers guys!

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Zaha

    2. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      2

  10. Werner Bremen
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What do you think of doubling up on Liverpool attack soon. With Mane, getting Salah too instead of KDB. Sounds good?

    1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Start gw 19

    2. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Will probably do it GW 24

  11. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Mousset or Targett on long term? Basically both on bench, but you never know. Also depends on minutes in holiday season. so who is better choice?

    1. Viper
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      You'd imagine Mousset would be the better bet but there is a 0.7/.8m difference there so depends what you plan on doing with that

      1. balint84
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Planning to get Kane when Vardy Party is over, so also need a decent midfielder later with the dropping of Maddison or Mount. Connely is on injury list and also I have Lowton who is a temporary even in Burnley

  12. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    My planned moves after GW18

    Rico Traore Pulisic to VVD Dendo Grealish.

    All depends on if Grealish picks up his 5th yc and whether Pulisic reverts back to form.

  13. FirMinaMiMo
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Lads!!!

    Your good thoughts please! 🙂

    Ryan 4.0*
    Soy lund kelly* rico* #####
    Mane dele son maddison shaq*
    Vardy tammy rash

    4.7itb .... defender picks please

    A) target
    B) ogbonna
    C) zouma

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Any replies friends 🙂

    2. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      None.

      Would rather you get a 3.9 enabler and change up shaq ASAP.

      This would allow you flexibility to play 3 or 4 at the back depending on fixtures.

      Next move after changing shaq would be to upgrade either one of rico or kelly

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I'm in 50-50 , to choose kelly ... because they will definitely concede a goal ..
        Agree???

    3. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I would go Targett

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thank yu mate ...ll look after a while 🙂

  14. Neo-Viper
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Captain Vardy or Mane? Top of the cash league and have a lead of around 40 points. Rival has both.

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Vardy

  15. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who to C ?
    A- Vardy like most of ppl
    B- Rash
    C- Mané

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A.

      Let the rest of your team do the talking

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Okaaay

        1. Viper
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          As in everyone will captain Vardy, make up the points elsewhere. No point trying to be too clever

    3. HNI
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      V

    4. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A all day long

      1. marcus2704
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Liverpool always slaughter Watford, I am torn between Vardy and Mane myself. I have Rashford also, but hes no option.

  16. Viper
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    All good to go? Bit of a benching headache. (No hits).

    Henderson

    Robertson Lundstram Soyuncu (Kelly Guilbert)

    Son Alli Mané Tielemans Pulisic

    Rashford Vardy (Mousset)

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

    2. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      G2G

  17. Bubbles1985
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    GTG? Bench ok?

    Gazza
    TAA Lundstram Soy
    Mane KDB Mount Alli
    Mousset Vardy(c) Tam(vc)

    Button Kelly Cantwell Rico

    I have 1FT 2.5itb and still got WC!

    Cheers

    1. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

  18. toxik
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    I want to save my FT this week but have Tomroi who won't play, worried about Klopp rotation with Robertson which would bring Rico in from bench. How nailed is Robbo please?

  19. The SK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    GTG?

    Henderson
    TAA Soyuncu Lundstram
    Mane(VC) KDB Son Grealish
    Vardy(C) Rashford Ings

    McGovern Cantwell Rico Janmaat

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I prefer Guaita over Hendo but otherwise good

  20. Klaren
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Which 2 to play?
    A) Lundstram
    B) Kelly
    C) Zaha
    D) Mousset

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A and D
      Palace have lots of injuries at mo

    2. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      C and D

    3. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A and D

  21. FirMinaMiMo
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hammers vs saints

    Any score predictions???

    1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      4-1

    2. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      consider to buy Antinio

    3. villa_til_i_die
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      1-2

  22. SirStevieG
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Play 1:

    A) Kelly (BHA)
    B) Lundstrum (AVL)

    1. Quackadoodz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Lundy. Higher ceiling + higher chance of CS considering crystal palace’s current injury woes

    2. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Has to be Lundstram especially with his ownership.

    4. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

    5. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

  23. Bronski
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Which (if any) are likely to be benched this GW17

    Pulisic
    Mane
    TAA

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Reckon all three will play.

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Only A but think all will play

  24. Drexl Spivey
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    He might very well be jammy, but I don't think December's the right time to be dicking about with the captaincy when Vardy's claiming that much support. And certainly not when he's up against Norwich.

    1. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      But Mane and Salah have Watford who are even worse!

      1. Drexl Spivey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I've got them both too, but you never know who's firing between the two of them. December kills me every year, with the congestion - I've even bought Grealish for the bench just to cover any absences. Damage limitation for me.

        1. Kip
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Now lets hope he doesnt pick up that yc today... *hides behind the sofa, fingers crossed*

          1. Drexl Spivey
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            True enough. I'll take my chances though.

  25. BENOIT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    A couple of dilemmas chaps...

    1) Vardy or Mane captain?

    2) bench Alli (wol) or a rested Mount (BOU)? 

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Vardy(c)

      Alli in top form so would bench Mount.

    2. Drexl Spivey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      1) Vardy

      2) Too tricky to call. I'd be tempted to exploit Bournemouth's frailties.

    3. Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No idea

      Do not bench Alli under any circumstances!

  26. rodragon
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Kdb+ jiminez to alli + rashford
    Kdb+ jiminez to alli+Abraham
    Or
    Taa + jiminez to Aurier/Dunk + rashford/Abraham
    Have two free transfers
    Thanks!

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Third option and chose Aurier and Abraham imo

  27. itsmeguneet
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Gtg guys?

    Pope
    Lundy- Soy- TAA
    Zaha- Sterling- Salah- Mount-
    Vardy-Tammy- Mousset

    Button, Traore, Dunk, Jamnatt

  28. drughi
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Went rashford over tammy in the end, hope it wasnt a mistake

  29. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    It's looking like I'm going to waste a transfer this week. Happy with the team and still got my wildcard. Mane>Son next week I think. I can't sell Robbo or Trent now as I won't be able to get them back (got both 7.0).

    Ryan
    Trent Robbo Lundstram
    Mane(vc) KdB Alli Grealish
    Vardy(c) Jimenez Tammy

    Button Kelly Dendoncker Rico

  30. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What do you expect from Mousset in holiday season?

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mixed bag of fixtures for Sheff Utd especially towards end of Christmas period, they also get goals from all areas of the team