Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Why I’m betting against Vardy captaincy to make big FPL gains

Back from a nice vacation in Thailand, I’ve got a readymade excuse for being off my game a little for the last few days.

The last really good week I had was Gameweek 12 where I bet against Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) and Anthony Martial (£7.6m) was handed the armband against Brighton. This was one of five valiant attempts of betting against ‘Jammy’ Vardy.

It almost came through with Vardy managing his returns only after the 65th minute. I’ve soon realised this became a norm as the Leicester forward loves his second-half returns.

Martial didn’t do too badly either though and got two assists himself in a Gameweek he statistically outperformed Vardy.

I got a nice 83 points (Gameweek rank of 43k) with me being very early on the now prominent Vardy, Tammy Abraham (£7.9m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.5m) frontline which propelled me from 130k to 45k.

I’m sure you must be wondering why I call Vardy ‘jammy’. It’s not about the statistical over-performance for me. I know all about that. It’s more about the jam that AppleBonkers brought to my attention.

He got 50 minutes versus ten men against Newcastle United which led to a brace. Then he got 78 minutes against the ten men of Southampton and netted a hat-trick. Last time out Tyrone Mings (£4.5m) naively refusing to come off when he sustained a hamstring injury absolutely gifting him Leicester’s opening goal and then he got a nice 45 minute run out at a poor Aston Villa defence without their best centre-back.

After that amazing Gameweek 12, Mourinho was appointed by Tottenham Hotspur. I am a huge Jose fan and immediately realised that Harry Kane (£10.9m) was there for the taking as a differential.  Kane facing Bournemouth and West Ham in Gameweek 13 and 14 was something I simply could not ignore.

I told myself this is a two-week flirtation against Mr. Jammy Vardy and if it doesn’t work, I would bring the Leicester man back. I am extremely comfortable switching big-hitters this season as mentioned in my strategy here.

My thinking is that I will always back myself to go against the grain with a short-term switch especially when it involves captaincy to make quick ground.

The basic idea is that if more than 70% of my switches (I say switches and not gambles because they are all thought through) come through, I should find myself having another good season. People play this game with way too much fear for my liking.

Vardy outscored Kane by 10 points in those two weeks. Not much damage done in my books (except for when I saw Kane’s haul last Gameweek).

You have to think of some of these results like bad beat in Poker. You cannot afford to go on tilt. Temperament is everything and if the results don’t go your way, do not lose your shit. Correct your mistakes quickly and always try thinking without baggage.

I gave the Anti-Vardy strategy another go last weekend by putting the armband on Mohamed Salah (12.2m) facing a depleted Bournemouth. Salah got a nice 13-pointer and I found myself jumping from 138k to 60k only for Vardy to match Salah later and push me back further. Hamstrung Mr. Mings needs to be thanked here.

I’ve been pretty much dilly-dallying between 50k and 170k for the last ten Gameweeks. While some might get frustrated with this, I don’t see a huge problem with that and I’m very comfortable to hold ground in this range as I feel that I am two good ‘switch-hits’ away from pushing myself into the top 40k permanently. Holding position is a very underrated concept and I don’t mind it at all when I’m constantly finding myself gambling against the grain.

Having recently returned from my holiday, I found myself under-confident and all over the place. Football hadn’t been seen. Articles hadn’t been read. Stats hadn’t been scanned. I wasn’t early on Alli & Son and was upset off about that.

My advice to Fantasy managers is that when life comes in the way, find two hours for Match of the Day (pick your matches if you have lesser time) and 20 minutes for a quick scan of the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.

In the past three days, I’ve covered ground with my research. I feel like I am in a good place now and ready to take on December. I’ve caught up on the highlights, scanned the stats and read those beautiful reports by Neale and David.  

This is my current set up and I’m likely going to save this week. But there is one thing bothering me big time. I really really want Marcus Rashford (£8.9m).  

He is currently matching Sadio Mané (£12.3m) and Vardy for a lot less money. It genuinely feels like he’s at the cusp of superstardom. I am a Manchester United fan and this is by a distance the best I have seen him play. He genuinely looks unplayable.

For six years, I’ve not had a player that has me impatiently waiting for his next performance. I have that feeling right now and it’s absolutely beautiful. He just needs to be consistent.

The problem with wanting Rashford is that the current frontline is firing on all cylinders and is very difficult to sell. The move also needs to be probably funded by selling a Liverpool asset. Then there is the narrative that United are abysmal against a deep block and can only really play counter-attacking football against strong teams. Despite the results which support the narrative, I decided to look into the stats for the same.

Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)

Using the FFScout Member’s Area Flat-Track Bully Tool, I looked at Rashford’s stats against the top seven (The current top seven with Arsenal replacing Wolves) and then looked at his numbers in meetings with the other 13 teams.

The results were very interesting and in my opinion ‘myth-busting’. 

Rashford has a higher xG, more goals, more goal attempts and a much higher goal conversion rate against the top seven. Against the weaker teams, he has a higher xA, more goal attempts in the box, more big chances and more big chances created.

The goal conversion rate falls down from 35% to a staggering 9.7% against weaker opposition. This could be more chance than anything else and Rashford has only recently finding top form and his last two games being against tougher opposition might have something to do with those stats. This gives me enough conviction to make the move for Rashford either this week or next.

Until then, I will be pondering the merits of another switch-hit armband against Jammy Vardy. He plays the easiest defence in the league. But a certain FPL giant is finding form and he can No-Mo be ignored. I’ll leave you with this nice little stat. Good luck for the Gameweek!

2,278 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RubberDucky
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Vardy captaincy is the reason i got considerable increases in my OR. Untill the fixtures change im sticking with. Even if he blanks this GW he has been a great asset to my team this season.

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        That may answer my quandary below.....

      2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Water is wet

    • Stockport Hatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pope
      TAA Lundstram Soyuncu
      Mane Alli Son Pulisic
      Rashford Vardy Abraham

      Got captaincy on Vardy but as I'm sitting 894k really considering Rashford as a differential. If it pays off, great, if not I'll drop even further due to Vardy being the overwhelming choice. What should I do?

      A) Vardy to keep up
      B) Rashford to try and seriously jump up the rankings
      C) Something else

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        A
        As Rashford up against deep lying Toffees defence

        1. Stockport Hatter
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks

    • pjomara
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Play Jimenez or Grealish?

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Jimenez

    • n14mul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Morning,

      Anyone have any news on Tomori and if he out 100%. Any news from press conference?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Read the hot topic

      2. Kiwi Don
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He’s out this week.

    • It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      It will take some composure to not rage transfer Pulisic out when blanks this afternoon. Really should wait until Friday.

      1. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Tell me about it. I have Pulisic Mount and Abraham for today, so a blank for me would be a nightmare

      2. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        American dream aint what it used to be...

    • Arteta
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Gazzaniga
      Pereira Lundstram Söyüncü
      Mané de Bruyne Son Alli Zaha
      Vardy Jiménez

      McGovern, Mousset, Rico, Williams

      Saving FT and reassessing situation next week.

      Good to go?

      1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        GTG

        1. Arteta
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers!

    • robt
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      To TC Vardy or not is my dilemma!! Anyone going for it? Sitting pretty in mini league but got see ground to make up in OR!

      1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Nope

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Resist the urge for a DGW

      3. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        TC for DGW only for me, yes I know that some people played it single weeks with better resulsts that those who kept for DGW, yet still I preffer to have to shots at scoring big.

      4. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I’ve got the itch to do it as well

    • fc_skrald
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I have two free transfers and will either waste the one or change my goalkeeper. If I change the goalkeeper I would like to avoid double team defences - who is the best goalkeeper to get if he can not be playing for Liverpool, Tottenham, Sheffield Utd or Crystal Palace?

      Henderson
      TAA, Lundstram, Aurier
      Salah, Son, KDB, Pulisic, Maddison
      Vardy, Ings

      Martin, Kelly, Greenwood, Williams, 0.6 million in the bank

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Gazza(if no Spurs def) or Guiata

        1. fc_skrald
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Both will give me double ups. But I guess if I buy Guaita and play him I will bench Kelly - think this will be my move, if any..

        2. Jones Kusi
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Did you miss his team?

      2. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ryan

        1. fc_skrald
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yes, Ryan - wish I had had him in my team from gameweek 1 but better late than never 🙂

    • DycheDycheBaby
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      GTG?

      Gazza
      Chilwell--Robbo--TAA
      Maddison--Alli--Mane(vc)--Pulisic
      Vardy(c)--Abraham--Rashford

      McGovern, Lundstram, Kelly, Hayden

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Gtg except Cantwell over Hayden

    • MagicMessi
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Guys please play Aurier over Kelly ?
      Henderson
      Pereira Lund Kelly// Aurier

      Also play Pukki of Grealesh?
      Thanks

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Aurier and Grealish for me due mainly to fixtures

    • Von Lipwig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Thinking of gambling mane captaincy over vardy, but he played 90 on Tuesday.... Do we think this is a)madness or b)gutsy

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Too risky, stay at the party

      2. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Mane is a good shout, more points per goal plus potential CS.
        He is on form and playing team that is pretty much already in Championship.

      3. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Mane a good option but Watford are an unknown with new manager, could be more solid or could go the other way.... Vardy at home to Norwich is best fixture of the season imo

    • Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      GTG? Bench ok?

      Gazza
      TAA Lundstram Soy
      Mane KDB Mount Alli
      Mousset Vardy(c) Tam(vc)

      Button Kelly Cantwell Rico

      I have 1FT 2.5itb and still got WC!
      2ft next week before WC to get liverpool trio back!
      Cheers!

    • selig
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      gazza button
      vvd lund soy willems tomori
      mane alli pulisic martial maddison
      vardy ings jimenez

      1ft 0.2itb

      any suggestions?
      Thinking about saving but I'm open to anything. thanks

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        GW17-Tom to Kelly
        GW18 Mane to Son

    • Jones Kusi
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Which option is best?
      A. Rashford, Alli, Pulisic, Taa
      B. Rashford, Alli, Son/Kdb, Kelly/def 5.0

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        B. Son and Aurier or Kelly

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        B

      3. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        B with Son and Kelly

      4. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        B

        Son Kelly

    • Je suis le chat
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Surprised Mo isn't getting more votes in captains poll considering his monster haul Vs Watford 2 years ago (4g1a). Dream result then as I also had Virgil (2g).

      1. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ownership on here probably quite low

      2. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Because thats history 😉

    • THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Who’s more likely to get attacking returns in your opinion?

      Aurier or Lundstram..... can’t see us or Sheffield United keeping a cleanie

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Lundy, Aurier more likely to be sent off.

        1. THFC4LIFE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Playing right wing though.....

      2. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Lundstram

      3. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Slightly less risky leaving out Serge

        1. Make United Great Again
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          This

      4. 7shadesofsmoke
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        i'd be playing Aurier if i had him

      5. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Lundstram train is somewhat halted

    • Taegugk Warrior
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Ryan
      Soy/Aurier/Lund
      Salah(c)/KDB/Maddison/Son
      Vardy(vc)/Rashford/Abraham

      McGovern-Kelly-Dendonk-Rico

      Gtg...?

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Gtg but i prefer Gazza or Guaita over Ryan mainly due to fixtures

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Also Cantwell over Dendo imo

    • 7shadesofsmoke
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hands up those of us with massive cojones and the armband on someone other than Mane/Vardy

      Im going Abraham.

      Who you got?

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I had that cojones last week and went with Aurier, not this week 😛

        1. 7shadesofsmoke
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          😆

      2. Jafoole_88
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Got Salah(c). Tempted to TC him this week, but will hold off.

        1. 7shadesofsmoke
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          nice 🙂 great shout - you got Mane too?

      3. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I did KDB and suffered massively. I’m rejoining the party and turning up early

      4. Larkin
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Jesus

    • estheblessed
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Which of these would you bench?

      a) Zaha (Home - Brighton)
      b) Ali (Away - Wolves)
      c) Mount (Home - Bournemouth)
      d) Jimenez (Home - Spurs)

      1. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        A or C for me but that’s a horrible benching headache that I wouldn’t want

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        C

      3. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        A

    • Roysgotnoboys
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Please RMWCT

      Pope
      TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstrum
      Mane, Martial, Maddison, Son
      Vardy (C), Rashford, Tammy

      (Martin, Kelly, Rico, Dendo) 0.2 ITB

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Target instead of Rico and the a good 8.5/10

        1. Roysgotnoboys
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks!

      2. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Lovely team apart from martial imo good luck

        1. Roysgotnoboys
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers.

          It was KDB & Ings or Martial / Richarlison & Rashford

      3. Yellin' in my Ear
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Not sure on the Pope pick but otherwise like it

        1. Roysgotnoboys
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks. Pope always seems to do me well so sticking him back in

    • StayoutheSpiceZone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Would love a cheeky hornets goal in the early kick off in a 14-1 Liverpool win. Mane 14

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Only 14pts for Mane would be poor in 14-1 victory :/

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Beware the new manager effect for Watford

        1. drughi
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          lol

    • davies
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Who to play?

      A) Gazza (wol)
      B) Martin (sou)

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Martin

    • Joss Ackland’s Spunky…
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Play Pulisic or Zaha for this game week?

      Pulisic has looked slightly off it, might be rotated/reduced mins

      Zaha in a big Derby but hasn't been great last 2.

      What you reckon?

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Play Pulisic. Underlying stats are great.

        Zaha not great FPL option this season.

      2. Roysgotnoboys
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Pulisic

    • drughi
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone not going vardy captain in here, I mean mane home to watford guys

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Salah (c) for me

        1. drughi
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          nice, can see a big haul from salah this week

      2. Make United Great Again
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Great option. But Vardy at home to Norwich is just as sweet

        1. drughi
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Vardy captain is so obvious it almost makes me a bit suspicious

          1. Make United Great Again
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            You’re overthinking it

          2. Yellin' in my Ear
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Same as last week though really

          3. Arteta
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            That's what I thought last week! Well if Dele wouldn't have wasted 1 on 1 with Pope, I'd be the one laughing.

      3. Larkin
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Jesus. Terrible Arsenal defence, low ownership, bang in form.

    • Yellin' in my Ear
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Hi all. Can I get a some last minute thoughts on my wildcard please (I know the risk with no Liverpool defence, especially this week, and with no city) 0.2m itb.

      Guaita, (Martin)
      Soyuncu, Kelly, Lord, (Aurier, Rico)
      Alli, Son, Maddison, Mane, (Shelvey)
      VAR

      Cheers

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        All good, cant see any faults.

        1. Yellin' in my Ear
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers

      2. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Gtg imo (like the Shelvey cover)

        1. Yellin' in my Ear
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers, he's flagged this week but otherwise in a bit of form and worth a punt at 5.0 hopefully

    • Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Are we playing Lundstram out of fear now?

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        No, out of position.

      2. bitm2007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I'm tempted to bench, who would you not play from the 12 in the post below ?

    • bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      12 good options this GW, who should I bench ?

      Pope
      TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Kelly
      Salah, KDB, Sterling, Zaha
      Vardy, Abraham, Mousset

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Kelly

      2. Yellin' in my Ear
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Pope 🙂

      3. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Mousset

    • StoneMountain
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      McGinn to Grealish for free?

      1. Bronski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Yes all day long. Grealish trying to get noticed by Gareth for the Summer

    • Larkin
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Going for Jesus as a differential captain this week. Arsenal a shambles at the back, Man City have to win, only one striker who is desperate to impress and he looks on it. Or he could blank.

      1. Arteta
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Nice punt. Unless Leno puts on a masterclass they will definitely score a few and Jesus is quite likely to be involved.

    • Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Salah or mane for this week only? (Using fh cip)

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Would probably go with salah then

      2. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Salah

      3. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        If a FH then surely you want both.

        1. Nightcrawler
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Budget doesnt allow it unfortunately