Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Why I’m betting against Vardy captaincy to make big FPL gains

Back from a nice vacation in Thailand, I’ve got a readymade excuse for being off my game a little for the last few days.

The last really good week I had was Gameweek 12 where I bet against Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) and Anthony Martial (£7.6m) was handed the armband against Brighton. This was one of five valiant attempts of betting against ‘Jammy’ Vardy.

It almost came through with Vardy managing his returns only after the 65th minute. I’ve soon realised this became a norm as the Leicester forward loves his second-half returns.

Martial didn’t do too badly either though and got two assists himself in a Gameweek he statistically outperformed Vardy.

I got a nice 83 points (Gameweek rank of 43k) with me being very early on the now prominent Vardy, Tammy Abraham (£7.9m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.5m) frontline which propelled me from 130k to 45k.

I’m sure you must be wondering why I call Vardy ‘jammy’. It’s not about the statistical over-performance for me. I know all about that. It’s more about the jam that AppleBonkers brought to my attention.

He got 50 minutes versus ten men against Newcastle United which led to a brace. Then he got 78 minutes against the ten men of Southampton and netted a hat-trick. Last time out Tyrone Mings (£4.5m) naively refusing to come off when he sustained a hamstring injury absolutely gifting him Leicester’s opening goal and then he got a nice 45 minute run out at a poor Aston Villa defence without their best centre-back.

After that amazing Gameweek 12, Mourinho was appointed by Tottenham Hotspur. I am a huge Jose fan and immediately realised that Harry Kane (£10.9m) was there for the taking as a differential.  Kane facing Bournemouth and West Ham in Gameweek 13 and 14 was something I simply could not ignore.

I told myself this is a two-week flirtation against Mr. Jammy Vardy and if it doesn’t work, I would bring the Leicester man back. I am extremely comfortable switching big-hitters this season as mentioned in my strategy here.

My thinking is that I will always back myself to go against the grain with a short-term switch especially when it involves captaincy to make quick ground.

The basic idea is that if more than 70% of my switches (I say switches and not gambles because they are all thought through) come through, I should find myself having another good season. People play this game with way too much fear for my liking.

Vardy outscored Kane by 10 points in those two weeks. Not much damage done in my books (except for when I saw Kane’s haul last Gameweek).

You have to think of some of these results like bad beat in Poker. You cannot afford to go on tilt. Temperament is everything and if the results don’t go your way, do not lose your shit. Correct your mistakes quickly and always try thinking without baggage.

I gave the Anti-Vardy strategy another go last weekend by putting the armband on Mohamed Salah (12.2m) facing a depleted Bournemouth. Salah got a nice 13-pointer and I found myself jumping from 138k to 60k only for Vardy to match Salah later and push me back further. Hamstrung Mr. Mings needs to be thanked here.

I’ve been pretty much dilly-dallying between 50k and 170k for the last ten Gameweeks. While some might get frustrated with this, I don’t see a huge problem with that and I’m very comfortable to hold ground in this range as I feel that I am two good ‘switch-hits’ away from pushing myself into the top 40k permanently. Holding position is a very underrated concept and I don’t mind it at all when I’m constantly finding myself gambling against the grain.

Having recently returned from my holiday, I found myself under-confident and all over the place. Football hadn’t been seen. Articles hadn’t been read. Stats hadn’t been scanned. I wasn’t early on Alli & Son and was upset off about that.

My advice to Fantasy managers is that when life comes in the way, find two hours for Match of the Day (pick your matches if you have lesser time) and 20 minutes for a quick scan of the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.

In the past three days, I’ve covered ground with my research. I feel like I am in a good place now and ready to take on December. I’ve caught up on the highlights, scanned the stats and read those beautiful reports by Neale and David.  

This is my current set up and I’m likely going to save this week. But there is one thing bothering me big time. I really really want Marcus Rashford (£8.9m).  

He is currently matching Sadio Mané (£12.3m) and Vardy for a lot less money. It genuinely feels like he’s at the cusp of superstardom. I am a Manchester United fan and this is by a distance the best I have seen him play. He genuinely looks unplayable.

For six years, I’ve not had a player that has me impatiently waiting for his next performance. I have that feeling right now and it’s absolutely beautiful. He just needs to be consistent.

The problem with wanting Rashford is that the current frontline is firing on all cylinders and is very difficult to sell. The move also needs to be probably funded by selling a Liverpool asset. Then there is the narrative that United are abysmal against a deep block and can only really play counter-attacking football against strong teams. Despite the results which support the narrative, I decided to look into the stats for the same.

Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)
Rashford vs the top seven (left) and against the bottom 13 (right)

Using the FFScout Member’s Area Flat-Track Bully Tool, I looked at Rashford’s stats against the top seven (The current top seven with Arsenal replacing Wolves) and then looked at his numbers in meetings with the other 13 teams.

The results were very interesting and in my opinion ‘myth-busting’. 

Rashford has a higher xG, more goals, more goal attempts and a much higher goal conversion rate against the top seven. Against the weaker teams, he has a higher xA, more goal attempts in the box, more big chances and more big chances created.

The goal conversion rate falls down from 35% to a staggering 9.7% against weaker opposition. This could be more chance than anything else and Rashford has only recently finding top form and his last two games being against tougher opposition might have something to do with those stats. This gives me enough conviction to make the move for Rashford either this week or next.

Until then, I will be pondering the merits of another switch-hit armband against Jammy Vardy. He plays the easiest defence in the league. But a certain FPL giant is finding form and he can No-Mo be ignored. I’ll leave you with this nice little stat. Good luck for the Gameweek!

2,278 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dele
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    G2G? Anything for a hit? 1.1ITB

    Pope
    TAA, Chilwell, Lundy
    Mane, Dele, Son, Zaha
    Rashford, Vardy(c), Tammy

    Button, Kelly, Dendonker, Hanley

    1. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Sweet team. Could be massive.

    2. FPL ElasticO
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      G2g no need for transfers

    3. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      G2G , I personally don't like double Spurs, but many do.

    4. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Not worth a hit for sure.

    5. MrGraysDomination
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks for the advice mate, was just unsure whether or not tottenham will turn wolves over, looking at you're set up it looks like you do...

      1. Dele
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I had them both last week, so just going to continue with both over the Christmas fixtures and then reassess. Long term both are too much, I’m looking at either as an easy way to get KDB back in the side.

        1. MrGraysDomination
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Fairplay makes sense

  2. NATSTER
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Just the last spot to decide. Who to start?

    M - Mousset (AVL)
    J - Jimenez (TOT)

    1. FPL ElasticO
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Mousset

    2. Ha.
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimi

    3. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimi. Fully rested in midweek EL and he likes to play the big boys. Spurs to concede. Jimi brace. I thought The Mousse was a doubt anyway. Missed the last gw

      1. NATSTER
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I'm a bit doubt with him too. Also, he has never completed 90 minutes on the pitch.

    4. Dele
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      J

  3. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    G2g for this GWk?? Need some opinion....

    Ryan
    Lundstram/ TAA/ Soy
    Maddison/ Pulisic/ Alli/ KDB/ Mane
    Vardy(c)/ Abraham

    Bench:: Button/ Kelly/ Rico/ Connolly

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Team is too nice for this week 😉 High expectations and you know FPL. GTG btw.

    2. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      100% Gtg. Outstanding line up potentially huge hauls incoming. Pretty template with a sprinkle of a pulisic possibility. I envy you

    3. Dele
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Very GG side

  4. BigPointDipper
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Get rid of jimi for Tammy? Or save ft for next week? 🙂

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Tammy

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Tammy is the one that I am not comfortable having this week

    3. Bruin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I’m holding Jimi. Best captain next week imo v Norwich

    4. BigPointDipper
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah, history does show Jimi likes the big 6 so hopfully that continues... just think a good Chelsea win midweek and a injury stricken Bournemouth looks like an appealing game..

  5. Ha.
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Any ideas?

    2FT, 0.6ITB

    Pope
    VVD, Soy, Lund
    Mane, Mount, JWP, KDB
    Kane, Jiminez, Vardy (c)

    Button Dendo, Rico, Montoya

    1. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Kane to tammy and roll one.
      GW 18 vvd and mane on your bench. Those 2 ft will be important. Upgrade dendo and a def

      1. Ha.
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thank you, but not for me

  6. Plagued by indecision
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Bit stuck with what to do. I have 2 FTs and 2.8 ITB but not much flexibility. Want rid of Connolly and KWP.

    Pope
    TAA / Lundstram / Soyuncu
    Grealish / Mane / Maddison / KDB / Pulisic
    Vardy / Ings

    Subs: Heaton / Connolly / KWP / Guilbert

    Thinking KWP > Kelly and rolling the other ft. Thoughts?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Yep. Planned transfer seems good.

    2. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Yes. Get Kelly or aurier

  7. Konstaapeli
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Bottomed... GTG here? Bench in order?

    Ryan
    TAA / Soy / Lundy
    Mane / Son / Alli / Pulisic
    Tammy / Vardy © / Rashford

    Button / Tomori / Dendocker / Rico

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      nice, GL

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers, and good luck!

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      My starting eleven bar Son is Martial for me, so good ...

    3. Dele
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      VGG G2G

  8. Joss Ackland’s Spunky…
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Is there anyone willing to explain EO to me and how it relates to your overall rank?I kind of get it.

    So my rank is 250k and vardy's EO was over 100% last game week on fplstats. Is that related to me personally?

    Bottom of thread soz.

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      If a players ownership is over 100% and you don't captain him you will loose rank if he gets points.

    2. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No it’s the effective ownership of the player either overall or within the top 10k. If players captain a player they double their ownership And EO illustrates this

    3. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      EO in the top 10K, if it’s over 100% (say 150%) it means for every 1 point Vardy scores in FPL, the top 10K average rises 1.5.m (due to captaincies and triple captaincies).

      If you own him and don’t captain him, you lose out. (Unless your captain gives him a pounding).

  9. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    On FH chip

    Salah and Kelly

    Or

    KDB and VVD

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Salah & Kelly. Captain Salah.

    2. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      SK

  10. CloudSky
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Worth doing McGinn to Alli for a hit, if it means benching either Lundy or Aurier?

    Hendo
    TAA Aurier Soy Lund
    Mane KDB Mount
    Vardy Tammy Jimmy

    Button McGinn Kelly Cantwell

  11. MikeLowrey
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    A) Tammy
    B) Rash

    For 2 weeks

    1. Ha.
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

  12. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    If early team news from reliable source showed Salah playing and Mané benched would you take -4 to swap Mané for Salah and captain?

    1. Ha.
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No, but hope for no showing up rather than cameo. Bench will cover,

  13. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    1 FT, 3.7 ITB and WC intact. Any moves required or should I save and go?

    Pope
    Kelly / Pereira / Lund
    Pulisic / Mane / Mount / KDB
    Vardy (c) / Ings / Jimi

    Heaton / AWB / Cantwell / Rico

    1. chriscosta
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      i consider jimi to abraham/rashford
      or if your looking for a differential what about Jesus
      and replace one of mount/pulisic to son/alli (or fixtures favor palace maybe Zaha)

      something to consider

  14. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Starting Kelly over Lund wud be crazy ?

    1. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I would play the midfielder

    2. flipthebuzzard
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Crazy no, but definitely not for me

    3. chriscosta
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      no, not really i think kelly has a better chance of a clean sheet

  15. LǝgleSs e|even
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Stick with Mane or bring Salah in?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Stick

    2. flipthebuzzard
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I'm leaning towards stick atm myself

      1. Sgt. Schultz
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        me too

  16. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    G2G here?

    Pope
    TAA Lundstram Soyuncu
    Salah(c) Martial Maddison Pulisic
    Vardy(vc) Abraham Rashford

    Button Cantwell Tomori Hanley

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Looking good

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers mate , just need add something to my bench, I have 1.8m itb.

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah going forwards I’d look to strengthen cantwell for rotation. Maybe switch out pulisic to silva and cantwell to grealish and Tomori to Kelly

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Looking to get Son or Alli, but thanks for giving me options to look at.

            1. Eat my goal!
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Oh yeah defo do that - son imo

          2. Dynamic Duos
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Oh I want Targett over Kelly.

    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      yep, nice GL

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers and gl to you

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Fellow Martial owner! Nice one ...

  17. rodragon
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Tammy or rashford for jiminez?

    1. Babelcopter
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      keep jammy jimmy

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Tammy for me

  18. Ace Ventura
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Pulisic / KDB/ Alli / Mane / Maddy Tammy / Vardy / Ings

    Who do I bench out of these? I'm on KDB at the moment - madness surly.

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Why have you done this to yourself lol.

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Madness having a strong front 8

    3. Babelcopter
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pulisic and do yourself a favour and sell him after this gw

    4. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I’d drop pulisic, Alli or Kdb

    5. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      You know you can only bench boost once

    6. chriscosta
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      i drop alli or ings ahead of KDB

  19. flipthebuzzard
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    A. Tielmans to Maddy
    B. Tielmans to Pulisic
    C. Mane to Mo

    Any worthwhile as a free?
    Or save.

    1. itsmeguneet
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Save. Consider this next week

  20. andres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Betting against Vardy is not just crazy it is stupid!

    1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Got to agree.

      I get betting against him for rank jumps, but this isn’t one of those weeks to take that risk IMO.

    2. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Writes an article though

    3. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      It it's not broken, don't fix it!

    4. twoplustwo
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Awful stuff

  21. Oscar Slater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Tammy a ball hair behind bookies favourite Vardy in the "To score two or more goals" market but the latter has twelve times the amount of votes in the captains poll.

    1. Ha.
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      You can only have one captain

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Vardy is on pens though

  22. itsmeguneet
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Gtg? Please give your thoughts .. I have 2 FT

    Pope
    Lund- TAA- Soy
    Salah- Sterling- Mount- Zaha
    Tammy- Vardy- Mousset

    Button, Traore, Dunk, Janmatt

  23. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Ending up with this lot this week. Bench order sensible?

    Good luck everyone!

    Ryan
    TAA Soyuncu Lundstram
    Mane Martial Alli Pulisic
    Vardy [C] Rashford Abraham

    Gaza Grealish Aurier Rico

  24. MagicMessi
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Lads want to lock team
    G2G?
    Bench right?

    Henderson
    Pereira Lund Aurier*// Kelly* Tomori
    Mane Madison Pulisic Son//Grealesh
    Vardy Pukki Rash

    Thanks good luck folks

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Play Kelly and Grealish, bench Aurier and Pukki

  25. Eric the King
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Play Tielemans or Wilf?

    Should I keep Kane or sell for Tammy?

    1. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Tielemans with Tammy

  26. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    FH Team

    Pope

    Kelly Robertson Perreira Lund

    Salah Mane maddison

    Ings tammy vardy

    Who would u captain?

    1. chriscosta
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      i think salah has a good record against watford !! i choose him

  27. FirMinaMiMo
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Gtg??? how's my team sounds gud???

    Guita 4.0*
    Soy VVD kelly lund* rico*
    Son dele maddison mane dendo*
    Vardy(c) tammy rash

    Thoughts!!!!.... bench
    Kelly or lund???????

    🙂

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      play lundy over kelly ????!!!!??.. maybe.....!!!!

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks matey 🙂

    2. petergriff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I'd definitely play Lundstram. SHU xGC at home last 4 is almost half what Palace's is.

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Yup bud 🙂

  28. Eh, just one more thing ...
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Who bench from these four defenders please .... Aurier . Robertson . Socyuan . Lundstrum . ..?

    1. petergriff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Aurier. I know you probably have him to get ahead of the curve, but if they all score the same points then Aurier as lowest owned is the best to bench as least risk to OR.

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Aurier this week

  29. petergriff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hi all, 2 bad GWs in a row have sent me from 200k to 500k.

    Any advice much appreciated, i've over-thought this way too much now.

    Pope
    TAA Lundy Soyuncu Lindelof
    Mane KDB Alli
    Vardy(c) Jimenez Abraham

    Button Cantwell Hayden Rico
    2.9m ITB
    1 FT

    I'm very tempted to get Maddison, but i'm 0.2m short of Cantwell>Maddison so that's a -4. Or i do have exact funds for Cantwell>Martial for free.

    So:
    A) Cantwell > Martial (Free)
    B) Lindelof&Cantwell > Kelly&Maddison (would be v frustrating if Ings outscores Jimenez over next 4 though)
    C) Jimenez&Cantwell > Ings&Maddison (-4)
    D) Save (though i've been too slow to get on points recently, so am not scared to take a hit this week)

    1. FirMinaMiMo
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Get martial....with 3-4-3 lineup

      1. petergriff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        thanks

  30. Munny Man
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Morning all. But if a strange one. Would you play Jimimez against Spurs or Kelly against Brighton?

    1. petergriff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Favour the attacker. But that's very close to call

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Jimbob

    3. the Penman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      You’re liable to get 6 points either way.