Pro Pundits - Sam

Using the Wildcard to manage Liverpool’s Blank Gameweek 18

Normally the first Wildcard burns a hole in my pocket and by Gameweek 3 or 4 it’s been played but this season has been different.

I built my team for Gameweek 2 onwards knowing that that might have cost me in Gameweek 1 (it definitely did!) but that it might allow me to have a better start to the season and hold the Wildcard a little longer – second international break rather than the first.

I started the season without Raheem Sterling (£11.8m), preferring to have Kevin de Bruyne (£10.3m) instead.

At the time I remember thinking the Wildcard would be my route to bringing Sterling in when he surely punishes me for not having him.

However, his season is yet to truly fly in my opinion and I haven’t felt the need to own him – yet.

This means that my Wildcard is still in my back pocket ready to deal with the Liverpool blank, the busy Christmas period and the fixture-swing clubs.

Whilst I am sitting just five points outside the top 10k right now I am not alone in still having the original Wildcard left to play with a fifth of the managers in the top 10k still holding theirs.

This adds an interesting dimension to the game and is unchartered territory for me. As the 2019/20 has gone on I have looked in to the statistics behind the best use of the Wildcard last season and found that the managers who played the second one in early January tended to fair better than those, like myself, who held it for the Blank and Double Gameweeks later in the campaign.

As a result of this when I didn’t play my Wildcard at the first or second international breaks I decided, barring catastrophe, to hold the original one as late as possible so as hopefully to gain the advantage of an effective early January wildcard (albeit in late December) as well as holding the second Wildcard to navigate the Blanks and Doubles – I’m hoping this gives me the best of both worlds, although we’ll have to see how it plays out.

As a result, I now have two free transfers going into Gameweek 18 with which I can take a punt on if I want.

I have decided to take Sadio Mané (£12.2m) out this week as I don’t want to bench all that level of my budget.

Given that I did the Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) to Mané move late I don’t have much value in him he shouldn’t cost too much for me to get him back if I need to.

I am, however, planning to have Salah in my Wildcard so I won’t need to worry about value. This week, therefore, I have the pick of the midfielders and there are a wealth of options.

The options for Mané replacements came down to these…

Anthony Martial

Anthony Martial (£7.7m) plays Watford this week who, while showing some degree of the so-called ‘new-manager-bounce’ against Liverpool, have conceded nine goals in the last five Gameweeks.

Lucas Moura

Lucas Moura (£7.0m) is the less popular option from the Spurs midfield but, like many of his colleagues, he has had a whole new lease of life under Jose Mourinho.

The Brazilian has three goals in his last four and, as a result of his price, the player most easy to hold and after Gameweek 18 as part of my Wildcard. He is that much cheaper than the other options when it comes to working Salah back in.

Spurs’ shots on target ratio of 47.5% since Gameweek 13 is the highest in the league, thus making Son and the next option really good candidates…

Son Heung-min

Son Heung-min (£10.1m) has three double-digit returns in his last five matches, coinciding with Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs.

Using the Members Area to run a comparison of Moura and Son over the last six and then four Gameweeks shows Son winning the statistics both time, although this was by a smaller margin over the last four matches. As such of the two spurs candidates if I pick one of them I’ll likely go with Son.

Raheem Sterling

Given that the original plan for my first Wildcard was to use it to bring in Sterling, I should probably consider him this week.

His form this season has been inconsistent at best. However, whilst he wasn’t up to the player of old we did see glimmers of his former self in Gameweek 17 and he did get attacking returns.

For me this game against Leicester is critical for Manchester City if they want to maintain their title challenge and thus Sterling surely needs to play a big role in this game.

My major concern is with his statistics in home matches this season. Of Sterling’s 10 goals in 2019/20, eight have come away from home and 14 of his 17 big chances have occurred on the road.

Conclusion

When I rolled my transfer from Gameweek 17 to give me two free ones for Gameweek 18 I was really excited for punts on a couple of players who could easily be changed on a Wildcard.

However, now while I am pondering who should come in I am finding the prospect difficult, with five points to make up on the top 10k and a cup match again Frank Olufsen to try and win I’m feeling more pressure!

Sam FPLFamily <p>Head of Partnerships, People and Product. Half of the FPLFamily. Pundit on the FPL Pod, FPL Show and Sky Sports News&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

547 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Henderson
    Lundstrum Kelly Aurier
    Son (c) Grealish Zaha Salah(NS)
    Vardy Jimenez Kane

    Trent Mings March

    Bit of an injury nightmare so had to make a move for a -4 and still playing with 10 men. I could do a -8 and remove Mings but not sure it’s worth it..

    A -8
    B Hold with 10 men

    1. Abraham & Cheese
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I would transfer Mings out for a player with good fixtures for the next weeks. In the end I prefer to pay the price to be able to play a full team, even though it's a gamble.

      1. Warby84
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Targett or maybe Schar??

        1. Abraham & Cheese
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I was thinking Targett or Fernandez because of their price. But maybe Scharr is a good idea.

  2. Abraham & Cheese
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What to do?
    A. TAA & Abraham --> Evans & Rashford?
    B. TAA & Zaha --> Targett & Son
    C. Save transfer

    1FT, 2.6 ITB

    Pope Henderson
    TAA, Aurier, Rico, Lundstram, Kelly
    Zaha, KDB, Alli, Mane, Dendocker
    Abraham, Jiminez, Vardy

    1. Abraham & Cheese
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I am inclined towards B.

  3. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What's the consensus on Salah vs Mane (wc in gw20)

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Go for Salah imo

    2. Rash
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Think I may go both if possible

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        A lot of cash, nearly 1/4 your budget, for two players. When one hauls the other is unlikely to but if you have a De Bruyne, Son, Vardy, Kane, Aguero might be better long term.

    3. Abraham & Cheese
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I've got Mane. Wish I had Salah.

    4. Pinturicchio10
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Both for me.

    5. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Targett or Fernandez ? Thanks ( Fernandez rotates well with lundstram)

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Please 🙂

      2. Abraham & Cheese
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I might have to make the same choice. Although neither are defensively inspiring, Villa has the better fixtures, so I'll probably go with Targett. But Fernandez does rotate with Lund well - might be the better option.

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Think Fernandez is nailed ? Thanks

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            He is

        2. Abraham & Cheese
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Btw nice name! 😀

          1. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Haha cheers reference to the wire 🙂

            1. Abraham & Cheese
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Best show!

      3. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Fede 🙂

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Thanks

    6. EL tridente
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Henderson (Button)
      Soyuncu, Lundstram, Guilbert (Robbo, Diop)
      Son, Maddison, McGinn, Shelvey (Salah)
      Vardy, Rashford, Tammy

      What to do with this squad? Have 1 ft, 0.6 in the bank
      A) Diop to Kelly
      B) Diop to Fernandez
      B) Salah to KDB
      C) Other

    7. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      1. Zaha (new)(WHU)(sou)(nor)(ARS) -4
      2. Ings (che)(CRY)(TOT)(lei)

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Zaha could be a massive trap imo

        1. Coys96
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          True, but the fixtures are great. I am also going to Norwich Palace so would really like someone to own for that match.

          Is Ings still the best option even if Zaha gets an extra game?

          1. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Why does he have an extra game ? What have I missed ??

            1. Coys96
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              It's confusing, but:

              I want to go Jimenez to Rashford next GW (which I currently have funds to do)

              I can do Dendoncker to Zaha this week for free, but that would mean to get Rashford in, I'd have to take both Jimenez and Ings out to raise the funds.

              1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 3 months ago

                It is confusing but I kind of understand it 🙂 as you're going to the game get Zaha that will be fun !!

                1. Coys96
                  • 6 Years
                  4 years, 3 months ago

                  OK thanks!! Only problem is it's essentially a hit, but he does basically get an extra game over Ings!

                  1. Coys96
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 3 months ago

                    Tbf I could keep Ings and just not have Rashford/find another way to get him in

        2. Abraham & Cheese
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I'm thinking of selling him this week at risk of missing a Newcastle hattrick.

          1. Coys96
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Fair enough, who you bringing in?

          2. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            No away player will score a hat-trick at James Park. Will be doing well to get one

      2. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ings.

      3. TRIPOS TOPPER
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ings

        Crystal Palace just don't score enough IMO

        1. Coys96
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Neither do Southampton though. But when southampton score it's nearly always Ings tbf. Fixtures are awful though

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            His blood's up.

    8. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Anyone know why Soy is close to dropping in price on FPLstats?

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Not sure . City and pool next

      2. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Don't want to be a n*b, but you could check yourself

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Or I could read your post correctly

        2. Abraham & Cheese
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Before you wreck yourself

          1. teneighty
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Solid advice! 😀

      3. lugs
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        fixtures probably

      4. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He's not close to dropping. He's on positive ~72, not negative 72.

        1. MarcusAurelius
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Oh yeah of course. I think the red arrows threw me! Obviously people are just selling him because of fixtures

      5. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He's being sold

        1. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          And nowhere near a drop

    9. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Pope
      Lundstram Kelly Rico
      Son Alli Maddison Cantwell
      Vardy Rashford Jimenez

      Button Soyuncu mane VVD
      1ft 0itb

      Mane to sterling?

      1. Abraham & Cheese
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Just for 1 week?

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Possibly 2 if sterling did well

      2. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I'm thinking Salah to Sterling for this week too, but i would play over a defender. Who would you bench?

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Cantwell I think. Annoyed i missed the price swings on mane and KDB

          1. Pukki Party
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Could be worth it, you never know if Cantwell will play. I'd rather bet on ManCity then Liverpool next 4.

    10. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Best combo this GW?

      A. Maddison+Greenwood+1FT
      B. Alli+Greenwood (means losing Maddy)
      C. Alli+Maddison (means losing Mané)

    11. Fernando Torres
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Willems or Dunk?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        The one that plays left forward practically

        1. Dthinger
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          and yet, Dunk scores more goals

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            And yet, that’s not true!

      2. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Dunk

    12. Ninjaa
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Any thoughts on what I do here
      0.4m itb and 2 transfers. 1st wildcard still available.

      Pope Button
      Robertson Lundstrom Soyuncu Rico Aurier
      Salah KDB Dele Traore Dendonker
      Vardy Abraham Jimenez.

    13. dwight
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No idea who to bench?? I’ve changed it a hundred times lol

      Ryan
      Lundstram, Rico, Kelly, Targett
      Son (C), Alli (VC), KDB, Grealish
      Vardy, Abraham
      Bench: Maddison, Mousset

      1/ Maddy/Mousset
      2/ Targett/Mousset
      3/ Kelly/Mousset
      4/ Targett/Maddy
      5/ Kelly/Maddy

    14. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Is it too crazy to go without any Liverpool players up until GW24?

      1. Pinturicchio10
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah

        • Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I personally don't like it

        • Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Mental

        • FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I hope not, as I’m planning to

      2. E25
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        WCing in 19 or 20. Want to use 2FT this week so as not to waste one if WC in 19. Def doing Mane->Son this week.

        Thoughts on what to do....
        A) Mane, Dend -> Son, Grealish (potential bench headache but strong 1st sub)
        B) Mane, Zaha -> Son, Grealish (bank 4.0)
        C) Mane, TAA -> Son, Aurier (bank 5.6, defender benching headache)

        Ryan
        Kelly Rico Lund
        Mane*** KDB Zaha Maddison
        Vardy Rashford(c) Abraham

        Button / Soy Dend TAA***

        2FT 1.5ITB

        1. HTL
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          A

          1. E25
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Who to bench? Zaha or Madds?

        2. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          A

      3. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        2FT and 0.3ITB

        A) Maddison -> Grealish
        B) Maddison -> Martial
        C) Any other move?
        D) Burn Fat

        Ryan
        Lund, Targett, Rico
        Son, KDB, Maddison, Cantwell
        Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez

        Button, Soyuncu, TAA, Mane

        1. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Burn *FT

          1. EL tridente
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Henderson (Button)
            Soyuncu, Lundstram, Guilbert (Robbo, Diop)
            Son, Maddison, McGinn, Shelvey (Salah)
            Vardy, Rashford, Tammy

            What to do with this squad? Have one free transfer, 0.6 in the bank
            A) Diop to Kelly
            B) Diop to Fernandez
            B) Salah to KDB
            C) Other

        2. Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          D) Burn Fat

          1. KUNingas
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            After chrismas, indeed

            1. Arse Craic
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              🙂 Burn FT and keep 2 for next week

      4. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Is manquillo nailed ? Didn't realise he was only 4.3.

        Thanks

      5. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        If you put Mo and Mane together what proportion of Liverpool GI do you get?

      6. stu92
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Best replacement for VVD? Thinking Aurier but is he potentially prone to rotation? Villa and Palace have best upcoming fixtures, Man Utd also look good fixture wise but not sure I trust them.

        1. Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Aurier for attacking points and baps

      7. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ranked 650k still... really feeling the will to put in effort waning as the chance of achieving a top 10k finish is getting increasingly improbable. Any stories of second half of the season come backs in FPL?

        1. Rocky FPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yes, I had one last season. I was 500k in GW 27-28. I was stuck around 500k for the whole season actually. Everything thing changed when Sterling scored a hat-trick around GW 28 and I luckily managed to captain him. It was a sea of green arrows from there onwards, careful planning around BGWs and DGWs really helped. And finished the season around a respectable 30k.

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            inspiring stuff, Im printing this out and hanging it on the wall above my nightstand!

        2. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          You're only approx. 106 points off the Top 10K score.

          Stop ya whinging, persevere and you may get a string of captaincy decisions right.

          You'll be right in the ball-park.

          Or y'know, just give up if it's really such hardship.

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Ill whinge as much as I want, thank you very much!

        3. pingissimus
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          2 mill this time of year to 86k and got very little from DGWs and made some truly dumb moves - another 30 points would have been easy.

          More importantly had great fun climbing the rankings.

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            The most fun part of the season so far was consecutive green arrows from 3m to 450k between gw5 and 14. Maybe the rest of the season will be more fun because of my terrible rank now, a nice thought.

        4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          (Not to be patronising BUT)

          Halving your rank each week is eminently possible with a bit of luck and a few good captaincy choices

          You could go 640k > 325k > 160k > 80k in literally 4 weeks and all of a sudden the top 10k is in sight instead of in the distance

          Halving your rank every 2 weeks is even more feasible

          Take a step back from looking at the next GW & look instead at the next 3-4, although admittedly you may be doing this already

          And I know it’s sometimes seen as boring as hell, but I think there’s definitely a strong correlation between avoiding hits at all costs AS LONG AS it’s combined with the right selection logic for the players you brought in

          Grind through it!

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            The very sensible but also very verbose answer, true to yourself as always Maximus 😉

        5. El Lobito 10
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          All it takes to fly up is a couple of good gameweeks, particularly captain calls. Captaining Salah last week helped me crack top 100k for first time. Before, I was languishing for weeks. Consistency the key imo

      8. EL tridente
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Henderson (Button)
        Soyuncu, Lundstram, Guilbert (Robbo, Diop)
        Son, Maddison, McGinn, Shelvey (Salah)
        Vardy, Rashford, Tammy

        What to do with this squad? Have one free transfer, 0.6 in the bank
        A) Diop to Kelly
        B) Diop to Fernandez
        C) Salah to KDB
        D) Other

        1. Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          A

      9. andres
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        What is the status of pieters? Playing or likely to je dropped?

      10. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Richarlison or Alli?

        Already have Son.

        1. Brosstan
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Alli. Still feels like RIch is a bit overpriced considering the team he plays for. Could be a decent punt now with a new manager coming in but its risky.

          1. The 12th Man
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Thanks, just fancy some Everton. Might go Holgate instead.

      11. Mr Wizard
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Mané to Sterling for -4?

        Already have KDB

        1. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Why

          1. Mr Wizard
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Why nae

            1. El Lobito 10
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Lol. I don't know mate, City have a lot of games, he might get a rest. Leicester not conceded more than one all season and Raheem hasn't a good record v them. I've gone a Spurs midfield double up instead, avoiding him and KdB

              1. Mr Wizard
                • 13 Years
                4 years, 3 months ago

                Cheers buddy. I might just hold

                1. El Lobito 10
                  • 6 Years
                  4 years, 3 months ago

                  NP. On the rest, I meant a later Christmas game, unlikely he rests him the weekend. I love Sterling but flattrack bully of late

      12. drughi
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Best replacement for boly ? leaning towards targett, so attacking and up against 4 teams with very dodgy defences next.

        A. Targett
        B. Dunk
        C. Kelly

        1. Arse Craic
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          All good picks.
          C for me

          1. drughi
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            does kelly have any attacking threat whatsoever ?

        2. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I went A

          1. drughi
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            leaning towards that myself

      13. andres
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Richarlison or Grealish?

        1. drughi
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          richarlison for me if money no object

          1. Pompel
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            which means Grealish ....

            1. TaiwanHC
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Haha good point

      14. TaiwanHC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Would you play Rico (BUR) or Kelly (new) for GW18?

        1. Balls of Steel
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Kelly