Pro Pundits

What Warren Buffett can teach us about Fantasy Premier League

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March asks what FPL managers can learn from the ‘Oracle of Omaha’.


Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the world’s greatest living investor with a net worth of over $89.9bn. Unfortunately for Warren, he’s never played Fantasy Premier League and so he’s never really understood the true meaning of success nor has he experienced the thrill of winning tickets to two Premier League matches of his choice.

However, I do think there’s a lot that we Fantasy managers can learn from the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ and so this article will look at how elements of Buffett’s investment strategy may be applied to FPL.

Value Investing

Warren Buffett largely adopts a ‘value investing’ strategy which essentially means he aims to identify undervalued stock, according to certain criteria, invest in them and then wait for the market to correct itself, thus yielding a profit.

Because the mechanics of the FPL player price system reflect the stock market with investment in both types of asset increasing their price, an obvious application of a value investing strategy would be to identify and buy underpriced players and wait for other Fantasy managers to catch on and buy them too, thus raising their price and allowing you to profit through increased team value. 

For example, you could easily argue that the likes of Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m), Sheffield United’s John Lundstram (£5.1m) and Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham (£7.8m) were all underpriced at the beginning of the season and all for varying reasons. These include a return from a long injury for De Bruyne, a misallocated defender classification for Lundstram and the expectation that Abraham would be a supporting rather than starting striker. Their performances have attracted investment thus going some way to correcting their underpricing and, therefore, those managers that identified this investing opportunity early on would have yielded a substantial profit.

Of course, while a high team value can help, it is points that ultimately count in FPL and, while the two often follow each other, value investing of this type won’t necessarily win you your mini-leagues.

However, you can also look at value investing in relation to points by seeking contextual value opportunities. For example, Brighton’s Mathew Ryan (£4.8m), Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) and Everton’s Lucas Digne (£5.7m) are all probably priced correctly (some might even be overpriced) with respect to the overall season but you could also argue that they are all ‘underpriced’ within the context of their next five to six fixtures given that these are largely favourable for all three and include a Double Gameweek for Salah. 

Alternatively, two players may be accurately priced individually but offer a strong rotation, allowing them to be played only in favourable fixtures. Budget players with only good fixtures may offer comparable value to set-and-forget premium assets with more varied fixture difficulty.

There will be many other opportunities for contextual value and so, since much of FPL is about making the most of a finite budget, accurately timing and executing a value-led strategy of this type can create a big advantage.

Long-Term Investment

In some respects, the opposite of ‘value investing’ is ‘momentum investing’ which involves acquiring assets currently increasing in price in the hope that they will continue to grow in the (typically near) future. In FPL, ‘momentum’ would be the equivalent of a ‘bandwagon’; players who suddenly become popular and attract explosive levels of investment.

Buffett famously eschews momentum investing, preferring instead to carefully pick his stocks based on solid, fundamental business criteria and then hold them for as long as is profitable. He is quoted as saying: “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years.” This means that Buffett will miss out on the fast profits that come with certain investment bubbles but he will also not be left high and dry when they burst. Instead, Buffett’s success comes from achieving relatively modest but consistent returns, compounded over decades of investment.

Obviously, FPL and financial investments occur over very different timeframes and it’s probably not the best strategy to just stick with your Gameweek 1 team for the entire season (then again…) but, again, there are lessons to be learnt here.

Firstly, it is the importance of understanding and identifying what are the ‘fundamentals’ in good FPL players. As with investing, everyone will have their own interpretation of this but, for me, the fundamentals I look at include; how good a team the player plays in, the significance of their role in that team, how nailed on they are and whether or not they are on set pieces. I tend to add variables such as fixture difficulty and some statistical information on top of those, but these are the basics that I look at first. Current players who have, I think, extraordinarily strong fundamentals in this respect include De Bruyne, Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) and I always look for these types of players at the beginning of the season and when wildcarding.

As per Buffett, I also try and pick only players that I would be happy to have in my team for the whole season if I were to be hit by that proverbial bus. This isn’t, I stress, with any expectation that I will actually keep this player for the whole season, it just means that, if I have bigger fires to fight in my squad I will, at worst, be left holding on to a fundamentally sound player. I find this helps me avoid hits and, while it inevitably means that I miss out on some bandwagon points, I, like Buffett, get to miss out on the bandwagon busts as well.

Diversification

Diversification is a classic business school concept which suggests that investing in too few companies or industries is dangerous given the potential of a collapse or industry-wide downturn and, therefore, it is better to diversify investments and ‘spread the risk.’ This concept is applied all the time in FPL when we consider doubling or tripling up on players from a certain team.

Given the prevalence of this concept, it is maybe surprising therefore to hear that Buffett rejects it almost entirely stating that: “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you’re doing.” In FPL, it must be said, diversification can also offer protection against rotation, fixture difficult and dips in team form, however, following Buffett in rejecting it may also have its own benefits.

For example, I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that I won FPL in a year where my real-world team won the Premier League as it meant that there was a selection of really strong FPL assets available in a squad that I, as a long-term fan, understood really well. While I didn’t have any inside information as such, I felt I knew the players, the manager, the system, which types of teams they tended to do well or struggle against and so on. I tripled-up on players from this team almost the entire season and it seemed to pay off.

These circumstances, of course, were pretty lucky for me and I’ve no doubt they helped me to make better FPL decisions that season. In fact, looking at some of the other former winners’ winning seasons, it seems that many of their real-world teams also performed well.

So perhaps it’s true that, if you know your chosen subject well enough, diversification for the sake of diversification is unnecessary, perhaps even detrimental. It’s undoubtedly easier to know your stuff if you’re focusing on fewer clubs and, if you are a particular aficionado of a team or several teams, you might gain more of an advantage from concentrating your efforts and player selection on what you know best than you would from ‘spreading the risk’ across lots of sides.  

Summary

In summary, I believe that value-investing, a long-term mindset and focus rather than diversification, all principles that have helped Warren Buffett becomes the fourth-richest man in the world, may all also have benefits if applied to FPL.

Considering this, it’s a shame that Buffett has never tried his hand at FPL preferring, apparently, to play the card game bridge which, I understand he’s also pretty good at. Then again, since I think he’d be pretty good at FPL too, maybe Bridge’s gain isn’t entirely our loss…


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

1,817 Comments Post a Comment
  1. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best replacement for Alli for a 2 week punt? Max price 10.8.

    1. The Pesci challenge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looking at mahrez or Richarlison myself

    2. fridge
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Probably a City player, but hard to choose if not KDB and not enough for Sterling, maybe Mahrez?

    3. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Warren Buffet

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Don’t like his xG

    4. Ranger Mann
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sarr?

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Bournemouth and Spurs next 2 - not the best fixtures?

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I think they are great fixtures neither team defending well currently.

        2. Don Van Vliet
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Bournemouth and Spurs both currently have an extremely questionable defence.

  2. fridge
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    1FT, 3m ITB

    Ramsdale
    TAA. Soyuncu. Lundstram
    Salah. KDB. Maddison. Martial. Traore
    Ings. Vardy
    Button. Greenwood. Kelly. Aurier

    GTG to save the FT ahead of getting 3rd pool next week?

  3. Egg noodle
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A rather nice and different article. Good read, ta

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Has it helped teach you the ways?

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        1. Invest in index funds regularly
        2. Be patient and wait 10-40 years
        3. ??????
        4. Profit

        1. Epic Fail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Been a while since I seen a ???? profit meme. 😀

      2. Egg noodle
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Off to the library now, gonna read big books on investing and top the fpl charts next season

        1. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Hahahahahahaha

    2. Fpl Old Guard
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone else considering Stanislas?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        This is not the Buffet way my friend, it's the way to the poor house.

    3. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      GTG? Bench ok?

      Ryan
      Lundy Soy TAA
      Salah KDB Grealish Martial(vc) Traore
      Deeney Vardy(c)

      Button Kelly Rico Greenwood

      I have 1FT and 4.9itb how does it look??
      Planning to save my transfer and upgrade Martial > Mane next week

      Cheers!

      1. Ranger Mann
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        G2G. KDB C for me

        1. Bubbles1985
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Tempting but not sure how deep he will play.

          Am thinking I will go Martial but that will be a last minute snap decision!

    4. Ci Siamo
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Choose two mids to replace Zaha and Alli for at least two weeks, one will end up being a Salah placeholder:

      a) Sarr

      b) Richarlison

      c) Willian

      d) Traore

      e) Martial

      Thanks

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Get Salah now.
        Spurs and Utd are the opposite of red fixtures.

      2. Ranger Mann
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A & E

    5. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mourinho has Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura as options to lead the attack, along with teenager Troy Parrott.

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Mourinho has Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura as options to lead the attack, along with teenager Troy Parrott..

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Any idea who Mourinho has as options to lead the attack?

        2. Syd.
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Mourinho has Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura as options to lead the attack, along with teenager Troy Parrott....

          1. Epic Fail
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Parrot.

            1. Syd.
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Mr Parrot to you

      2. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        If he's smart he'll go with Parrott, I hear he's great off the shoulder.

    6. Alan The Llama
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Surely that's Warren Buffett. Warren Buffet is an all you can eat event at a rabbit's house.

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        🙂

        You know who’d love this joke... Adam Lallama

    7. Ranger Mann
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      GW24 Bench Boost team:

      Fab / Pick
      TAA / VVD / Soy / Lund / Holg
      KDB / Mo / Martial / Greal / Sarr
      Vardy / DCL / Ings

      A) Bench Boost
      B) TC Mo

      1. Catastrophe
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        B probably. Prefer a bench boost with more DGWers. Salah TC could be glorious. A big risk of course but you wont do worse than me (Sterling 1 point!)

    8. chatynho
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Ryan
      TAA Soy Gomez (Lund rico)
      Salah KDB Sterling Grealish Traoré
      Vardy Ings Greenwood

      2ft 0,3m in bank, any thoughts? Thank you:)

      1. Ranger Mann
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico - Watford defender

      2. Catastrophe
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Looking in good shape...Rico -> Holgate perhaps?

    9. Catastrophe
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      2 FT, 0.7 ITB. Help greatly appreciated! Looking to ship Aurier, Traore & Rashford over next couple weeks. Probably Pope -> Ryan after.

      Pope
      TAA, Aurier, Lundstram
      Salah, Mane, KDB, Traore
      Vardy, Ings, Rashford

      (Woodman, Cantwell, Kelly, Simpson)

      A) Aurier -> Stephens/Holgate (leaves enough ITB for Traore & Rashford -> Son & DCL next GW)
      B) Aurier -> Sidibe (leaves enough ITB for Maddison & DCL next GW)
      C) Something else

      Thinking A as I prefer Holgate & Son to Sidibe & Maddison (even with the extra 0.9 spare)?

      Cheers.

      1. Ranger Mann
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A - Madison injured

        1. Catastrophe
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Cheers. Holgate for fixtures?

    10. FPL Maldini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Right I'm ditching Pope, which keeper from these two do you reckon is best?

      A) Foster

      B) Fabianski

      1. Ranger Mann
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Fab - both dodgy fixtures in one GW works nice

      2. WiredWeasel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Fab looks a reasonable shout

      3. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        The in the know players are getting Flappy

        1. Ci Siamo
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Would that be you by any chance 🙂

    11. mackan
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Salah to sterling for 2gws then back again?

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yes

      2. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        No.
        Honestly, have people not been watching Spurs and Utd this season?

        1. internal error
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I'm biased, but this

      3. sentz05
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I am thinking the same thing and then Vardy for Firminho ready for GW24. You'll need 2 FTS like me

    12. Diedhiou See That?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Straight choice - who would you start just for this week:

      - Ali vs Liverpool @ home
      - Grealish vs Man City @ home
      - Traore vs Newcastle @ home

      1. internal error
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Traore

        1. internal error
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Mainly because Newcastle are a mess right now

          1. Pumpkinhead *non-expert*
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Six players back from injurt but your point is still valid

      2. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Traore

      3. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Nothing straight about a 3-way mate... C

    13. Vlad Tepes
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling should start this GW right?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Kun & Jesus might... and Foden.

    14. Vasshin
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Any West ham defender for double game week?

      I have 2FT and 0.1 itb in bank.

      I have double bournemoth defense of ramsdale and Rico.

      I can’t change ramsdale to fab as I don’t have funds for that but i can change Rico to Balbuena as they are same price.

      Balbuena would be last on the bench anyway but could be added to starting 11 for DGW if its not too crazy.

      1. Karhumies
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico to Holgate, Cathcart or Stephens?

        Ramsdale to Ryan, Foster or McCarthy?

        I expect West Ham to keep 0 CS on DGW, so 2+2= 4 whereas any defender with a single CS on DGW is 6.

        6 > 4.

      2. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I personally wouldn’t bother, I would move Rico on to Holgate or Bernardo

    15. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      G2g? Not a hitty manager but my god tempted to do pope to flappy

      Pope
      Soy Lund TAA
      Salah Mane KDB(c) Sarr Grealish
      Vardy Maupay

      McGovern Rico Greenwood Kelly
      0.8itb

    16. beetlejuice
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      What are the chances that Agüero starts?

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        It’s Pep, so as always 50-50

      2. George Sillett
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Who truly knows other than Pep. Complete guessing game.

    17. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Would you start holgate or grealish?

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        The Talisman

    18. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      G2G? Not quite sure on (c) yet.

      Pope
      TAA Lundstram Soyuncu
      Salah KDB Martial Grealish
      Vardy Rashford Jiminez

      Button Tomori Cantwell Hanley

      1ft

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        start cantwell over grealish or change to first sub

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Got to start Grealish at home v a porous City defence

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Man Utd defence is worse. De gea making school boy errors, maguire injured and Jones as the replacement

    19. The Desi Messi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I’m looking to do Kelly + Rash > Robbo + Ings next week in preparation for DGW24. So I have a free transfer to burn this week, any suggestions?

      Guaita
      TAA Soy Lund
      Salah KDB Maddison Grealish
      Vardy Rash Jim

      Button, Cantwell, Rico, Kelly

      2FT £0.5m

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Maddison is injured so, Rich or Martial in

        1. internal error
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Not confirmed

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Oh sorry. I thought Rogers said he was injured

      2. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico to Bernardo

    20. EL tridente
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Who to captain?
      A) Vardy
      B) Rashford
      C) Salah
      D) KDB

      1. aleksios
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A or B.

    21. Hazardous1983
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone punting on troy parrott

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Mou lack of history to give youth a chance doesn’t make it look like a good punt

      2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Not convinced but Ive heard hes quite a pretty boy

      3. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Won't start.

    22. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      What to do with Alli? Not keen on rich or martial unless someone has good arguments for one of them.

      a. Sarr (1GW punt)
      b. Alli and Rash > Salah and Ings (probably want to keep rashford for H vs norwich)
      c. something else

      2ft 1.7itb
      ryan
      evans TAA lundstram
      maddison KDB alli* mane traore
      rashford vardy

      pope dunk rico connolly

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        My first thought is Alli and Connolly to Sarr and DCL but not sure where that leave you to work in salah for the double

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          If I make the moves you suggested, I would have to do sarr > salah and rash > 5.7 FWD in DGW

    23. Hazardous1983
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Is maddison out?? He was my replacement for alli

    24. WOLVERiNES
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bench one of below:

      Lundstram(WHU) Rico(WAT) and Grealish (MCI) All home games

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico

      2. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico

      3. aleksios
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Rico.

      4. WOLVERiNES
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        That settles it. thank you all

    25. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Whoz your captain ?

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        KDB but I think jimmy is the best option this week, I don’t own him

        1. Eleven Hag
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I am going with Jimmy too

      2. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Vardz

      3. aleksios
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Vardy

    26. aleksios
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Save ft is best option here? 0.2itb.

      --Hendo
      --TAA--VVD--Lund
      --Mane--KDB--Madds--Grealish
      --Vardy--Tammy--Rash.

      --Stekel--Rico--Kelly--Cantwell.

      Plan for next week is to get Robbo or Salah.
      Thanks guys.

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        You’ve already got 3 Liverpool tho

        1. aleksios
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Thinking of dropping VVD.

    27. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Hi...who is the better striker to join vardy and maupay?

      A...Jiminez (2 good fixtures then tougher)

      B....dcl....better fixtures and 1.9m cheaper

      Thanks

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        This is tough, I’d go jimmy

      2. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Jimmy Easy

        Proven FPL points machine

      3. Party time
          4 years, 2 months ago

          The Mexican Sensation

          1. Flynny
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Cool. Thanks

      4. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        If Maddison is out then Vardy as captain is a no no.

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          KDB - look no further

        2. Netley Lucas
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          2 wingers and Perez 10, overthinking.