Pro Pundits

What Warren Buffett can teach us about Fantasy Premier League

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March asks what FPL managers can learn from the ‘Oracle of Omaha’.


Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the world’s greatest living investor with a net worth of over $89.9bn. Unfortunately for Warren, he’s never played Fantasy Premier League and so he’s never really understood the true meaning of success nor has he experienced the thrill of winning tickets to two Premier League matches of his choice.

However, I do think there’s a lot that we Fantasy managers can learn from the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ and so this article will look at how elements of Buffett’s investment strategy may be applied to FPL.

Value Investing

Warren Buffett largely adopts a ‘value investing’ strategy which essentially means he aims to identify undervalued stock, according to certain criteria, invest in them and then wait for the market to correct itself, thus yielding a profit.

Because the mechanics of the FPL player price system reflect the stock market with investment in both types of asset increasing their price, an obvious application of a value investing strategy would be to identify and buy underpriced players and wait for other Fantasy managers to catch on and buy them too, thus raising their price and allowing you to profit through increased team value. 

For example, you could easily argue that the likes of Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m), Sheffield United’s John Lundstram (£5.1m) and Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham (£7.8m) were all underpriced at the beginning of the season and all for varying reasons. These include a return from a long injury for De Bruyne, a misallocated defender classification for Lundstram and the expectation that Abraham would be a supporting rather than starting striker. Their performances have attracted investment thus going some way to correcting their underpricing and, therefore, those managers that identified this investing opportunity early on would have yielded a substantial profit.

Of course, while a high team value can help, it is points that ultimately count in FPL and, while the two often follow each other, value investing of this type won’t necessarily win you your mini-leagues.

However, you can also look at value investing in relation to points by seeking contextual value opportunities. For example, Brighton’s Mathew Ryan (£4.8m), Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) and Everton’s Lucas Digne (£5.7m) are all probably priced correctly (some might even be overpriced) with respect to the overall season but you could also argue that they are all ‘underpriced’ within the context of their next five to six fixtures given that these are largely favourable for all three and include a Double Gameweek for Salah. 

Alternatively, two players may be accurately priced individually but offer a strong rotation, allowing them to be played only in favourable fixtures. Budget players with only good fixtures may offer comparable value to set-and-forget premium assets with more varied fixture difficulty.

There will be many other opportunities for contextual value and so, since much of FPL is about making the most of a finite budget, accurately timing and executing a value-led strategy of this type can create a big advantage.

Long-Term Investment

In some respects, the opposite of ‘value investing’ is ‘momentum investing’ which involves acquiring assets currently increasing in price in the hope that they will continue to grow in the (typically near) future. In FPL, ‘momentum’ would be the equivalent of a ‘bandwagon’; players who suddenly become popular and attract explosive levels of investment.

Buffett famously eschews momentum investing, preferring instead to carefully pick his stocks based on solid, fundamental business criteria and then hold them for as long as is profitable. He is quoted as saying: “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years.” This means that Buffett will miss out on the fast profits that come with certain investment bubbles but he will also not be left high and dry when they burst. Instead, Buffett’s success comes from achieving relatively modest but consistent returns, compounded over decades of investment.

Obviously, FPL and financial investments occur over very different timeframes and it’s probably not the best strategy to just stick with your Gameweek 1 team for the entire season (then again…) but, again, there are lessons to be learnt here.

Firstly, it is the importance of understanding and identifying what are the ‘fundamentals’ in good FPL players. As with investing, everyone will have their own interpretation of this but, for me, the fundamentals I look at include; how good a team the player plays in, the significance of their role in that team, how nailed on they are and whether or not they are on set pieces. I tend to add variables such as fixture difficulty and some statistical information on top of those, but these are the basics that I look at first. Current players who have, I think, extraordinarily strong fundamentals in this respect include De Bruyne, Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) and I always look for these types of players at the beginning of the season and when wildcarding.

As per Buffett, I also try and pick only players that I would be happy to have in my team for the whole season if I were to be hit by that proverbial bus. This isn’t, I stress, with any expectation that I will actually keep this player for the whole season, it just means that, if I have bigger fires to fight in my squad I will, at worst, be left holding on to a fundamentally sound player. I find this helps me avoid hits and, while it inevitably means that I miss out on some bandwagon points, I, like Buffett, get to miss out on the bandwagon busts as well.

Diversification

Diversification is a classic business school concept which suggests that investing in too few companies or industries is dangerous given the potential of a collapse or industry-wide downturn and, therefore, it is better to diversify investments and ‘spread the risk.’ This concept is applied all the time in FPL when we consider doubling or tripling up on players from a certain team.

Given the prevalence of this concept, it is maybe surprising therefore to hear that Buffett rejects it almost entirely stating that: “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you’re doing.” In FPL, it must be said, diversification can also offer protection against rotation, fixture difficult and dips in team form, however, following Buffett in rejecting it may also have its own benefits.

For example, I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that I won FPL in a year where my real-world team won the Premier League as it meant that there was a selection of really strong FPL assets available in a squad that I, as a long-term fan, understood really well. While I didn’t have any inside information as such, I felt I knew the players, the manager, the system, which types of teams they tended to do well or struggle against and so on. I tripled-up on players from this team almost the entire season and it seemed to pay off.

These circumstances, of course, were pretty lucky for me and I’ve no doubt they helped me to make better FPL decisions that season. In fact, looking at some of the other former winners’ winning seasons, it seems that many of their real-world teams also performed well.

So perhaps it’s true that, if you know your chosen subject well enough, diversification for the sake of diversification is unnecessary, perhaps even detrimental. It’s undoubtedly easier to know your stuff if you’re focusing on fewer clubs and, if you are a particular aficionado of a team or several teams, you might gain more of an advantage from concentrating your efforts and player selection on what you know best than you would from ‘spreading the risk’ across lots of sides.  

Summary

In summary, I believe that value-investing, a long-term mindset and focus rather than diversification, all principles that have helped Warren Buffett becomes the fourth-richest man in the world, may all also have benefits if applied to FPL.

Considering this, it’s a shame that Buffett has never tried his hand at FPL preferring, apparently, to play the card game bridge which, I understand he’s also pretty good at. Then again, since I think he’d be pretty good at FPL too, maybe Bridge’s gain isn’t entirely our loss…


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.

1,817 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Rashford to Aguero and captain for -4 as punt for 2 weeks to try and get up ML ?

    A Yes
    B No

    Ryan
    TAA Lundstram Soyünücü
    Salah KDB (vc) Richarlison Grealish
    Vardy Aguero (c) DCL

    Button Cantwell Rico Kelly

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No. Find the best way to get triple Pool for GW 24.

    2. wrongball6
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes, underrated this week due to previous injuries.

      I'd imagine he starts. City face a poor Villa defence.
      Surly goals will flow, hes my captain and im the only one to own in my ML

      Good luck

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Gametime unclear. Wouldn't get him until there's positive news about him being more nailed on and not for a hit. Mings and Nyland at homd may not be the charity people are expecting.

    4. Bruin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No. Was thinking of getting in Aguero myself but decided not to as he is not a certain starter. If I had Rashford at home to Norwich like you, no way would I do it

  2. Simon B
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Which is best option?
    [a] Salah versus Spurs
    [b] Martial versus Norwich
    Asking for a friend 🙂

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

      1. Party time
          4 years, 2 months ago

          🙁

      2. Party time
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Tell ya friebd to join ffs

      3. Twisted Melon
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Bringing in Ings, is he likely to start this week?

        1. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Absolutely

          • dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Almost certainly unless gets injury

          • Ross Geller
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Just injury in the warm up or today’s training can prevent him form starting

        2. stooshermadness
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          This is a fantastic article, Simon. You've done a really nice job of drawing FPL parallels with Buffett's investing strategies. Very helpful in thinking about my team.

          1. Karhumies
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            A major difference though is that selling stocks carries significant transaction costs, whereas FPL has literally free transfers.

            1. Dthinger
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Schwab has free online trades...

        3. PocketZola
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Why are ppl selling jimenez?

          1. Party time
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Casuals

            • HamezMace
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Who’s selling, he’s +90% on fplstats

              1. Party time
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Someone had too many bottles this night 😆

            • EL tridente
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Could Son be a good option?

              1. Coys96
                • 6 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                A very good option

              2. Bruin
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Next week, yes

            • Coys96
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Is this Piatek any good?

              1. HamezMace
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                He was

            • Twisted Melon
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Bench one from
              A) Soy
              B) Lund
              C) Rico
              D) Traore

              1. Party time
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  C/A

                • Coys96
                  • 6 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  C

              2. mattmoran
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Would it be worth transferring out Grealish this week for Traore and then reversing that transfer next week?

                1. Party time
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    It could work out but better to save the transfer

                  • mattmoran
                    • 4 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    too late haha, taken the risk, I doubt Grealish's price will rise against City

                2. jimmy.floyd
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Maddison out?

                  1. Party time
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Doubt so...PressConf. tomorrow

                    • Salah’s Sonnet
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      I think he should be alright

                  2. HonestBlatter
                    • 13 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    I have only TAA and it takes 5 transfer to get Mane and Salah for DGW meaning -8p hit. Is it worth or go only with two Liverpool assets without hits?

                    1. Effe
                      • 13 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      What if you get in Mané and Robertson?

                      1. HonestBlatter
                        • 13 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Then it would mean 4 transfers and -4 from hits...definitely another option there

                  3. Salah’s Sonnet
                    • 12 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Hi guys, bit if help here if you could please?

                    Fab
                    TAA - Lundstram - Robbo
                    Maddison - Martial - KDB - Mane
                    Rashford - Vardy - DCL
                    _____________________________
                    Button: Evans: Dendoncker: Kiko

                    Rolling the FT, but undecided who to captain, it’s a headache. Narrowed to these options though:

                    A) Vardy
                    B) KDB
                    C) Mane

                    Who’s your pick? Thanks muchly 🙂

                    1. Effe
                      • 13 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Vardy (c)
                      KDB (vc)

                      1. Salah’s Sonnet
                        • 12 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Forgot to add that i have a mountain to chase up in my ML, still cap Vardy? Probs the sensible option

                    2. Tsparkes10
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      I'd go Rash if chasing

                      1. Salah’s Sonnet
                        • 12 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Cheers mate, i do want to cap him, just with Maguire out and Norwich stepping up a bit and looking a bit dire, just have my doubts about him

                  4. S.Kuqi
                    • 11 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    To fund Aurier -> Sidibe move which one should I do.

                    A) Pope -> McCarthy

                    B) Kelly -> Williams / Reid / Kilman

                    1. S.Kuqi
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Anyone?

                    2. Beavis
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Don't think the Sidibe move is important enough to fund it with 1 of these 2 options as I'm not a big fan of them.

                      A if I had to pick though.

                    3. Bruin
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Of those A

                    4. S.Kuqi
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Thanks both of you

                  5. doppelganger
                    • 5 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    gtg?

                    Ryan (Button)
                    Taa Sidibe Lund ( Soyuncu Rico )
                    Kdb Mane Richarlison Maddison (Cantwell)
                    Rashford(c) Ings Jimenez

                    Is it worth doing Madd+Jimenez -> Vardy+Traore , got 2 FT
                    A bit worry about Mad playing.

                    1. Salah’s Sonnet
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Mad should be fine i reckon. I see you’re capping Rash, i want to, but United so hot and cold

                      1. doppelganger
                        • 5 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        If they wreck them i think he will have mass involvement.
                        Jimenez also good choice or Richarlison.
                        Trying to be diferential

                        1. Salah’s Sonnet
                          • 12 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Cool. Yeah jimi and rich are good options, i have neither though

                    2. S.Kuqi
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Looks good

                  6. Ha.
                    • 8 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Is Pope fit?

                    1. The Train Driver
                      • 8 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Nah, looks like a beaver

                  7. beetlejuice
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Best defender to get for 5.0 max ?

                    1. S.Kuqi
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Holgate?

                  8. bennyp
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    GTG? On WC

                    Hendo/Fab - (McCarthy)
                    TAA - Soy - Sidibe - Lund - (Stephens)
                    Mane - Sterling(c) - KDB - (Mooy* - Cantwell)
                    Vardy - DCL - Maupay

                    2.3itb!

                    1. Coys96
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Upgrade Maupay to Ings. Great team

                      1. bennyp
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Cheers! Bit of cash in the bank will help later, trying to build a team of a full playing 15 for the DGW BB.

                        Been swapping between them but I fancy Maupay while Ings hits a tough fixture run, then I'll swap.

                        Planning Sterling -> Salah for the double too in 24.

                        1. Coys96
                          • 6 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          Great ideas 🙂

                  9. Coys96
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Would you go KdB to Son GW24?

                    Kdb has 6 red fixtures in the next 9 after GW24, whereas Son faces Norwich, Burnley, Villa in this time.

                    1. The Ejiptian King
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Was Arsenal away a red fixture?

                  10. Marmalade Forest
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    What’s the consensus on captain choices this week?

                    I’ve got:
                    Rashford and Martial vs NOR
                    Jimenez vs NEW
                    Vardy vs SOU
                    plus the usual City and Liverpool contenders. Aargh

                    1. Coys96
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      I fancy Martial, between him and KdB

                    2. Champ
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Jimi or kdb

                    3. RamaJama
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Vardy

                  11. D.Glynn
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Would you do Rico to Holgate for a ft and leave only 0.2 extra itb to do Martial to Mane next gw. Surely safe enough with prices changes?

                  12. Tsparkes10
                    • 5 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    I'm doing it. Cantwell over Alli

                    1. Coys96
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Good idea (spurs fan)

                  13. Areyouthereyet
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Rashford to Jiminez for free? Need a differential

                    1. GreennRed
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      No.

                  14. Roy Rovers
                    • 9 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Which one goes to bring in Mane?

                    A - Grealish
                    B - Maddie

                    Ryan
                    TAA Soy Lundstram
                    Salah KDB MADDIE GREALISH Cantwell
                    Vardy Rashford

                    Martin Greenwood Rico Kelly.

                    1. Coys96
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      A

                    2. GreennRed
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Neither. Double Pool defence or swap for Salah.

                  15. FPL Blow-In
                    • 11 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Ole say anything to imply Greenwood starting?

                  16. CrouchDown
                    • 11 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Anything here worth a hit?

                    Fab

                    TAA Soy Lund

                    Salah Martial Maddison Traoré

                    Deeney(C) Vardy Ings

                    Subs: Button, Grealish Kelly Williams

                    1. Coys96
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      No.. very gtg. And Deeney (c)!! I like it

                      1. CrouchDown
                        • 11 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Yeah feels like a good week for a punt, cheers mate

                  17. camarozz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Made my moves to raise the cash for Mane/Salah double up....

                    Pope/Alli/Maupay OUT

                    Fabianski/Sarr/DCL IN

                    And straight on my team to gather up all those points.

                  18. Ci Siamo
                    • 8 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    After going round and round and round in circles I finally made a decision on my Pope replacement

                    Mr Fabianski is just a save machine. With clean sheets so hard to predict this season I just want to plump with the keeper who likes saving and has a DGW

                    1. Party time
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        I like to call him Mr Fabulouski 😉

                    2. Puzzle
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Alli to Grealish?

                    3. Champ
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Interesting article. Apparently, another principle of investing your money is that it can be like a bar of soap. ie the more you handle it the less you end up with. Patience is not my strong suit...

                      1. GreennRed
                        • 12 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Investing in business maybe more predictable depending on your knowledge, experience and research. Land,Labour, Capital and Enterprise don't tend to get dropped, injured, lose form or miss games because their child was born....

                        1. Champ
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 13 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          True. To be fair, she did have 9 months so it not entirely an ambush!

                    4. Dthinger
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      Pulisic out for Traore?

                      1. GreennRed
                        • 12 Years
                        4 years, 2 months ago

                        Grealish.

                        1. Dthinger
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          4 years, 2 months ago

                          against City?

                          1. GreennRed
                            • 12 Years
                            4 years, 2 months ago

                            Yip. City will win but Grealish is on fire. If Villa are going to to do anything, they need to to survive, and Grealish will be tricky involved.