Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    So Salah for captain?

    Have

    Mane
    Vardy
    Kdb..

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Go for it.

    2. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Same boat

      No idea

  2. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best defender till 4.3?

    Stephens or anyone else?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Him or Cathcart

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I've just been looking at this, and yeah I think Stephens is the one.

      Also looked at Konsa.

      Like the idea of either Zabaleta or Masuaku but no idea if they start or not, which makes it a bit risky.

      Shame I can't stretch to 4.4 as Holgate and Saiss could do well.

      1. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I had masuaku last year or the year before (Can't rememberexactly) and it was really frustrating.
        I think he has lots of ups and downs.

        As a villa fan why you suggest konsa.
        I have targett and I am not happy at all

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I think we look better since moving to a back three. Not great, but an improvement. We've beaten Burnley 2-1, and drawn with Leicester 1-1 since the switch, so it's been quite positive in terms of results too. Fixtures okay after this weekend, 4.3 and nailed, not many options that low tho to be honest!

    3. Beavis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Balbuena?

      1. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        If west ham then it has to be Fabianski

    4. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Way better options at 4.4 m..

    5. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I would go for a watford defender at that price

  3. coozie
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hi Folks,

    First time in a long time am struggling to decide who to bench this week? What 2 out of this 5?

    1 Holgate
    2 Lundstram
    3 Cantwell
    4 Grealish
    5 Rico

    Thanks

    1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      5 and 4

      1. coozie
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers for that. Just not sure on Grealish though ahhh lol

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      3, 5

    3. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd bench Cantwell and Rico.

      1. coozie
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Ricos def on the bench then. Just the other one now lol

        Cantwell \ Grealish

    4. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Have all 5. I need to bench 3 of them. I start Lund and Grealish. First on bench Holgate.

    5. RyanMK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      4 and 5

    6. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      3&5

      1. coozie
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Just not sure Grealish can pull it off against City and Everton seen to be getting better in defence

        1. Johnny 8
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Grealish the Villa talisman, in great form and City defence isn't infallible.

  4. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Who to VC?
    Salah or Mane?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Salah

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mane

    3. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Prob Mane.

    4. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Always Salah for me

  5. yanky
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    bottomed...
    who comes in for alli for next two weeks (then they become mane)

    mahrez, martial, maddison, willian

    1. RyanMK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I am deciding between Martial and Richarlison. I already have Maddison though.

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maddison if fit

      1. yanky
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        will we know if hes fit? if so when?

        1. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          3pm

    3. Mortal.Swinbat
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mahrez, get that rank boosted

    4. JollyGoodYellows
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm in exactly the same boat. It would be Mahrez if I was sure he'd start.

  6. RyanMK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Bring i Martial or Richarlison? Will likely he replaced by Salah in GW24.

    Other mids are KDB, Mane, Maddison and Cantwell

  7. Lingard’s Shin Guards
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What to do?

    Guaita
    TAA Soy Lund
    Mane KDB Alli Maddison
    Vardy (c) Rash Jim

    Button Rico Kelly Dendo (1ft 1.1m itb)

    Maddison out?

    1. Lingard’s Shin Guards
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Or alli?

    2. RyanMK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Have a similar midfield, looking to sell Alli for Martial or Richarlison. Who are you thinking of bringing in?

  8. Lionac
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Which is better combo mid-term?

    A) Robbo & Hayden (play Grealish every game)

    B) Gomez & Sarr (rotate Sarr with Grealish)

    Is Gomez likely to keep stater place after Lovren recovers from injury?

  9. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Any love for Callum? Great fixtures. Maybe its time to find his form and he is on pens

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd wait for him to find some form first.

  10. Bobby Digital
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What time do we get more pressers? Rodgers and Lamps especially...

    1. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Read FFS Twitter.

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        U read it for me ok?

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers

  11. Mortal.Swinbat
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    No love for Jiminez (C) on here? Newcastle seem to be the whipping boys and Jimi good at returning, maybe not hauling. Low ceiling putting people off?

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think Jimenez is a really good shout this week, would be tempted if I owned him.

      1. Cruz88
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Between him and KDB for me

    2. Goro Majima
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      That's what's putting me off a bit, will probably end up on Vardy but still considering Jimi for now...

  12. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Guaita Button
    TAA Willems Lundstram Rico Kelly
    Salah KDB Maddison Martial Grealish
    Vardy Rashford Greenwood.

    1.1ITB

    Cannot see a way of bringing Mane in without a -8 over the next week.

    Was thinking Grealish, Martial, Rashford > Cantwell, Mane, Ings. Is this wise?

  13. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Think I’ll go Neto now Nuno has confirmed Jota is out. Looks a steal for £5.0m

    He should start right? (Started last 2)

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Was tempted to include him in the article above but opted for Doherty, good option tho now Jota is out.

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Great to hear. Going for him now which gives me two weeks to assess WHU a little more before the double.

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Nice, and what a differential.

          1. Athletic Nasherbo
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            0.1%. Probably means he will flop! Worth it though I think considering Newcastle. Cheers

            1. avfc82
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Only 5.0, so can't expect too much, but he's scored a couple recently, tho one was ruled out.

              1. Athletic Nasherbo
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                True true. A goal will do.

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      How long is he out for?

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Didn’t specify but said Jota will have a scan again next week. Doesn’t sound good.

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I'm sure I read somewhere he was on crutches the other day.

        2. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Ok, cheers

          1. avfc82
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Might wanna look into that tho if you're considering bringing him in. Think I saw it on one of the Wolves fan forums or Twitter accounts.

    3. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I would've brought him in this week if I wasn't already tripled up on Wolves.

    4. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      How long is Jota out for?

  14. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I’m a bit stuck as to who to bench

    A) Soy
    B) Ings

    Attackers are more fun to have, but pragmatically I do think Leicester to 0 is the likely outcome

    1. RyanMK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

  15. The Ejiptian King
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    G2G? 1FT and 3.5m ITB.

    Henderson
    TAA Doherty Lund
    Salah KdB Grealish Sarr
    Vardy Abraham Jimenez(C)

    Soy, Rico, Dendo

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah, solid team.

    2. De Gea is GOAT
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Very nice! Set on Jimi Captain?

  16. andres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    play Lund or Alli?

    1. andres
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Hendo in goal

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd start Lundstram.

    3. Beavis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lundstram

    4. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lund

  17. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A: Zabaleta; B: Hanley; C: Williams; D: Lascelles

    will mostly be benchfodder alongside taa, lundy, aurier, rico

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd be tempted to go Zabaleta, if you're confident he starts whilst Fredericks is out.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Zabaleta starting is even better news for Mane in the DGW, if possible

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      This again?

  18. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Assuming Maddison is fine, where would you spend a FT here? Got 2FT, 0.8m ITB. A United player will be downgraded to afford (most likely) Robbo in for the DGW, but that's after this week...

    Replacing Soyuncu could be on the cards (Ndidi out, CS drying up...). Or Rico/Kelly but that means chipping into the money ITB more. Help appreciated 🙂

    Fabianski (Martin)
    TAA Soyuncu Lundstram (Rico Kelly)
    Mane KDB Martial Maddison (Dendoncker)
    Vardy(c) Rashford Jimenez

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Presser is in 3 minutes

      1. Top Lad Dakes.
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Aye I know. Getting ahead of the crowds. Should Madders be out I'll do him to DSilva/Richarlison

    2. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Dendo to Hayden for 0.1m and roll the other

      Or Soy to Sidibe if you're feeling punty. Going point on the Ndidi absence. Not much to change here, tbh

  19. yanky
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    start rico (WAT) or maupay (eve)?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maupay easily

    2. I Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maupay

    3. Ziyech on the Bench
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maupay 100 times

    4. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maupay

  20. Bobby Digital
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    For Farkes sake...

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      This

  21. Jamb0
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    GTG? Bench / cap in order?

    Gazza
    TAA VVD Lundstram
    Salah KDB Richarlison Traore
    Rashford(vc) Vardy(c) Ings

    Button Rico Cantwell Kelly

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Cantwell should be 1st bench and C VC look decent shouts..

  22. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone please

    Pope

    TAA Robbo Aurier Rico Reid

    Best replacement for Aurier up to 5.5M ?

    A: Lundstram
    B: Soy/ Evans
    C: Sidibé:Holgate
    D: Kola
    E: Mendy

    1. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sidibé

    2. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C- prefer Holgate. Based on stats however rather than Sidibé boa potential.

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Bps

    3. Ziyech on the Bench
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I did the same move to Sidibe

    4. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Soy

  23. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Henderson
    Sidibe Trent Lundstrum
    Grealish DeBruyne Salah Mane
    Vardy(C) Maupay Ings

    Otamendi Kelly March

    0.3 itb, gtg?

    Actually tempted by Kolasinac punt over Otamendi as I’m 400k rank could be a nice differential..

  24. ThorntonReed
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Ryan or Ramsdale in for Heaton?

    (Button is my sub, also have a WC for sometime in Spring)

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldn’t go near Bournemouth atm

    2. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Just did Ramsdale to Ryan with FT.

      1. ThorntonReed
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Conclusive, thanks. (Clean sheet stays are pretty similar though...)

  25. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Aurier and Alli to TAA and Grealish (free) or TAA, Hayden and Ings (-4)?

  26. Taegugk Warrior
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Alli to
    A. Maddison
    B. Richarlison
    C. Mahrez
    D. D. Silva

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Richarlison looks like a new bandwagon

    2. cigan
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      seriously considering D

  27. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Ryan
    TAA Lund Rico
    Mane Mo KdB Maddison Martial
    Vardy Jim

    Button Greenwood Kelly Kiko 0.1 itb

    A Spend the 0.1 on Holgate if Maddison fit?

    B Wait till next week when I cash in on Martial (Dilva probs)

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Ty

  28. tim
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play one?

    Rico
    Maypay
    Grealish

    CHEERS!

    1. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maupay

  29. Captain_Shirokov
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A) Alli to Grealish
    B) Alli to Neto/Traore
    C) Dendoncker to Hayden
    D) Burn ft

    I already (accidentally) burned a ft last week. Please tell me I don't have to do it again.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

  30. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Kane out so who is the best pick?
    a)Auba
    b)Aguero
    c)DCL

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C

      1. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        cheers