Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Now I'm Panicking
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hurry up Rodgers - I need a piss

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      lol

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Piss on your chips.....healthier than vinegar

      1. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I hope you don't work for Harry Ramsden's.

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I own Harry Ramsden’s. Why our batter is so popular.

          1. Now I'm Panicking
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I won't ask what is in the tartare sauce.

            1. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              😛

  2. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Chances for Sterling to start?

    1. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Pretty high.

      1. Niho992
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thx

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      72%

  3. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Maddison update?

    Please & thank you....

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Imminent

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        So he’s fit? Is that goals or assists imminent?

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          See below mate

          1. Annie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I'll wait for an update over "spotted alive".

    2. Villa Velour
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rodgers says he's okay.

      https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1215634643116052481

  4. Plagued by indecision
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    My big wildcard regrets are Lucas Moura, Ramsdale and Rico. I have 2 FTs. Are they worth hanging onto? ANy other areas that could use fixing?

    Ramsdale / Button
    Rico / Sidibe / TAA / Cathcart / Lundstram
    Moura / Salah / KDB / Grealish / Traore
    Rashford / Vardy / Ings

    Thanks for any advice.

    1. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lucas has to go. Madders maybe? Or start planning for Mane.

    2. suddenorgan
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bournemouth have very good fixtures but horrible form, I think you can keep one of them. Moura can go.

  5. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    One good thing about the Ndidi injury was that it gave Rodgers a trial run in the EFL Cup SF to see what would happen without him. Rodgers learnt that he has to start Choudhury. Hopefully that keeps the Leicester defence tight. No more Praet, Tielemans and Maddison in a midfield three.

  6. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Oh wow Peo heaping the praise on Aguero...

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I meant Pep.

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He’ll be benched then

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yes exactly my thoughts I wanted to go Aguero(C)

      2. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yep. Pep has a record of praising players in press conferences to keep them sweet before benching them.

    3. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Brace from Kun upcoming

    4. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Oh no, he's my captain

    5. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Dont like it as a Aguero (C).

  7. jimbo90
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Don't really understand all the love for Fabianski. He may get save points occasionally but has upcoming games against Leicester (A), Liverpool (H), City (A), Liverpool (A). Am I missing something?

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Save points and BAPs

    2. Jamb0
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He has the highest points per game of any keeper in the game this season and has always been FPL gold, with a DGW, what's not to like

      1. jimbo90
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Forgot about the upcoming DGW. Thanks

  8. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Maddison owners. He looks fine. source: his Instagram and Leicester Twitter video from training when Vardy scores.

    I am owner too.

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Does he head the ball in any of the vids/pics?

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        He applauds Vardy's goal and celebrates. I thin he was wearing a black hat, but was together with the group training.

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          *think

          1. Jafooli
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            What? You ‘think’ he’s fit or he is fit?

        2. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Did he head the ball?

          Was the hat actually a helmet?

          Did he do a rolly polly in celebration of the goal?

          1. La Roja
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Dafuq is Rolly Polly lol

            1. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Head over heals roll type thing 😆

              1. FPL Daniel
                • 14 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Jafooli in a mood

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      😎

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Have a +1

  9. Reacher
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Zaha to Mount

    Yes or no??

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      N

    2. AFCB2019
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No. Grealish? Sarr?

  10. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Has Pep told us yet if Aguero or Jesus will start?

    1. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I wish he would give some info.

    2. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Why would you bother?...you’ll be in exactly the same position next week.

    3. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Heaped praise on Aguero so will probably play Jesus.

  11. PepSala
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling or Vardy captain doing my head in! No1 in my mini league has Sterling so if he hits I'll double my lead. Vardy is the safe option..

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling. Join me friend 😀

    2. AFCB2019
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy

  12. AFCB2019
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hi all, happy to respond to as many of people's queries as I can but just looking for a bit of guidance myself.

    Gazzaniga (McGovern)
    TAA Soy Lund (Rico, Kelly)
    Salah Grealish Zaha KDB
    Vardy (C) Rashford DCL

    1FT remaining (already done Kane to DCL) £5.3mil ITB

    Plan is Liverpool attacking double up and a question of when. Options are:

    A) Leave it. Zaha may return against Arsenal and then it's Zaha + Rashford to Mane + Ings next week for free
    B) Get Martial in for Grealish or Zaha
    C) Get Maddison in for Grealish or Zaha

    With both B and C I will then do Rashford to Ings next week and delay Mane coming in until GW24.

    Thoughts welcome and appreciated

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B for Zaha

  13. Dr Dream
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Does anybody know if Leicester have a black hat theory in training?

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Hahahah. Good one. Me like it

      1. Dr Dream
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        All the subs wear black hats?

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Uh. Dont have a clue. I think he is training with black hat because of the head injury or he is cold 🙂

          1. Dr Dream
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Got to be more to it than that. Maybe those with black hats are out for a month?

  14. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Do we think Mahrez will play?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Should play i think

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling Mahrez Aguero probable starters

      1. The Ejiptian King
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        On what basis?

  15. BremerHB
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play Lund or Soy?

    1. melvinmbabazi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lund

    2. AFCB2019
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lund for sure

    3. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lund

    4. Julesandal
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lund

    5. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm starting both.

  16. The Hoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What would you do in my position?

    A. Alli / Ayew -> Cantwell / Calvert Lewin
    B. Alli / Ayew - > Hayden / Ings
    C. Something else entirely

    Next week I would do Kelly -> Robertson

    Hendo
    TAA / Lundstrum / Soy
    Salah / KdB / Alli / Maddison
    Vardy / Rashford / Ayew

    Gazzaniga / Rico / Kelly / Dendoncker
    2FT 0.1 ITB

  17. SAINTS
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I have 2FT and want to use at least one.

    Mount to Maddison?

    1. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Good move if Maddison is fit.

    2. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maddison might not recover- any other issues with your team?

  18. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play?

    A) Tomori (BUR)
    B) Rico (WAT)

    1. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

  19. dillydally1982
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Really REALLY scraping the barrel in a Draft league...who would you choose to replace Jota for a 1-week punt?

    Neto / McGoldrick / Solanke / Kean

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Netp

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Neto

    3. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Neto is a midfielder right?

      1. dillydally1982
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        You're right...that messes up my plan! Might have to go McGoldrick then.

  20. PepSala
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you captain Sterling or Vardy if you were leading your mini league?

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling. Extend that lead.

  21. Park the bus
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    rival and i separated by 6 points and have ended up with very similar mid / fwds. I have Rashford and Grealish, he has Abraham and Martial. really want to captain Rashford this week to try and make the jump above him.. thoughts? Vardy probably the better pick but it's a bit dull and a Rashford haul as captain would be class..

    1. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Go with whoever you think your rival will captain. To all intents and purposes you’re level...just tick a week off.

  22. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Benching Grealish will probably backfire and 6th captain blank in a row coming.

    McCarthy
    Taa-Sidibe-Soy-Lund (Kelly)
    Salah-Mane-KDB(c) (Grealish)
    Abraham-Vardy-Ings

    1. Jullepuu
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I have Grealish starting and Soy benched and I'm afraid of a Leicester clean sheet

  23. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I like Kolasinac as a differential, but he's not nailed, is he?

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think he is not nailed

    2. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He is while Tierney is injured

      1. Arse Craic
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Saka had to fill in while Kolasinac was injured

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Tempting.

          Still got one FT.

          But it is Arsenal defence, though....... 🙁

  24. Julesandal
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Unsure on this hit or not. I have Salah and Traore

    Alli & Jiminez to Mane & DCL

    Jiminez has great fixture, but so does DCL?

  25. AzzaroMax99
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    G2G? WC active btw

    Hendo
    VVD Soy Sidibe
    Salah(C) Mane KDB(VC) Grealish
    Vardy Ings DCL

    Button Cantwell Webster Hanley

    Aside Taa, change anything or G2G?

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A safe wildcard bar TAA.

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks good, but I can't understand why you would go without Trent

    3. Julesandal
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Nice team! Hendo has couple of hard fixtures up next. I have both, but Im keeping ryan and then swopping him back for hendo. Guess it depends on whether you tend to set keeper and leave or not.

  26. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Pep swerved him me last GW dropping Aguero last weekend think I'll bail and switch him out too much to rotation and relying on him as © should I bring in Auba for free?

  27. faux_C
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Dunno why you'd go for Fornals when Snodgrass is *right there* and cheaper.

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      They’re about to sign an attacking winger I believe so Snodgrass might not be assured of starts.

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A few things made me opt for Fornals... Antonio returning soon could impact Snodgrass' gametime, he didn't have a shot vs Bournemouth, and I think Fornals is improving.

  28. Arse Craic
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Olivier Giroud will only be allowed to leave the club if it is "right for everybody." No decision has been made on the strikers' future. Loftus-Cheek is still a while away and Pulisic is out for a few weeks with a tendon injury he suffered in training last Saturday. #CFC

    1. Arse Craic
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      CHO anyone?

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Giroud staying isn't exactly right for anyone, though.

  29. George James
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best moves?

    Pope >>>

    A) Ryan
    B) Fabianksi
    C) Just hold until next week

    Alli >>> (for 2 weeks then will become mane)

    1) Maddison (if confirmed fit)
    2) Dilva
    3) Richarlison

    1. beric
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C2

  30. Firefoxed
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    1FT 1.2 ITB, anything to do, will bring Salah in for GW24 for alli and rashford

    Ryan/ Button
    TAA/ Soy/ Lund/ Rico/ Kelly
    Alli/ KDB / Mane/ Martial / Cantwell
    Vardy / Maupay / Rashford

    1. cjk17
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I have the exact same team bar Martial and Maupay. I currently have Alli and Abraham. Have the exact funds to transfer them out for Salah and DCL. Might wait one more week though.