Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dion D's Solo Shower
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Who to pick?

    A) Aurier --> Jonny
    B) Alli - Richarlison?

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      b

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

  2. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Jesus in for Kane?

    From Pep's presser it seems he may start...

    1. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd prefer get someone you are sure will start

      1. JOELIO8701
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        No Man City player then 🙂

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Good luck second guessing pep

    3. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Kun will start

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I thought that for Everton last GW when I had him as captain never be sure with Pep

  3. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone interested on Lascelles for 4.2 mil ?

    1. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      After Bruce news that he will be ready for Tuesday...

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      o/

    3. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      o/

  4. B Sharp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Any help for my mini
    draft league

    Fabski
    Perrira Sid Gomez
    Fornals Sarr Sterling Alli Willian
    Jimmy Vardy

    Subs: Guiata Kolasinac Digne Martinelli

  5. There's Always One!
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Lewin or Jim for next 3 or 4 weeks?

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      D

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      DCL for next few.

  6. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Gazzaniga McGovern
    Pereira Lundstram Söyüncü Rico Williams
    Mané Sterling de Bruyne Zaha Grealish
    Vardy Ings Mousset

    Would you wildcard this team? Already used free transfers to get rid of Kane & Dele. Also have £1.0 in the bank.

    I would make at least 7 changes.

    1. davmatter
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Gazza/Zaha/Mousset on the chopping block, surely..

  7. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A) Kelly + Rash -> VVD + Ings
    B) Kelly + Tammy -> VVD + Maupay

    A or B for dgw24?

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm considering B. Any thoughts?

  8. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hey guys, which would you remove first between Kelly and Rico? Want to take one of them out as I have 2 FT but can’t decide which.

    Cheers

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I own both and sort of in a similar position. Don't want BOU defence but I currently own Guaita hence I'm thinking to ditch Kelly first to maybe Holgate.

      My aim is to get a bit in the bank to get a Liv asset in for DGW.

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'll get rid of Kelly first

    3. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Seems Kelly could lose place sooner than Rico , so probs him.

    4. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Kelly, only cause feels like Rico should stay nailed

  9. Wensink
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Have TAA and Mane, preparing for DGW 24. Bench boost already used. For free,

    A. KDB, Rico > Salah, Reid (leaves .3 ITB) B. Rico, Kelly > VVD, Reid (.2m)

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Prefer the latter. Especially as you can TC Mane.

      1. Wensink
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks. Think that’s how I’m leaning. Who wants the headache of getting the armband wrong each week with Salah and Mane on the same squad?

  10. thewhitepele
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Got 2ft and 1.7m itb so need to figure out at least one sub:

    Gazza
    TAA Soy Lund
    Salah KDB Maddison Grealish
    Vardy Rash Ings

    Button Cantwell Rico Lascelles

    A) Gazza -> Ryan/Pickford
    B) Lascelles -> Sidibe
    C) Something else?

  11. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    BOTTOMED. GTG?

    Schmeichel
    TAA B.Williams Lundy
    Mane KDB(C) Martial Traore
    Vardy Tammy DCL

    Button Dendo Rico Kelly

    1. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Aye

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Vamossss Pepeee

    3. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks fam

  12. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    2FT and not sure what's best. Guaita --> Ryan / Fabianski or maybe Kelly --> Holgate and roll the other?

    Guaita
    TAA | Lundstram | Rico
    Salah | KDB | Maddison | Martial
    Vardy | Jimenez | Ings

    Button | Cathcart | Kelly | Dendo [0.5m ITB + 2FT]

  13. Jones Kusi
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    If you already own Mane and Taa, would you bring in Salah or Robertson?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Robbo

    2. Longlatini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mo

    3. POLSKA GOLA
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      In a perfect word where price has no effect on your team I’d have Mo. In FPL word Robbo

      1. POLSKA GOLA
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *world

      2. Jones Kusi
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I mean, if I own both Mane and Salah I can only captain one of them. If I only own Mane I can pretty much perma captain him gw24 and after without thinking too much and then have Robbo and Taa bringing assists and cs

    4. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Salah for me but should be close especially so if you will Cpt Mane gw24. Go gut

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Captain or TC?

    5. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No

  14. damiang2233
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Any update on Madisson playing this weekend?

    1. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rodgers said he is ok to play. Only he knows if he will start though!

    2. Fudgy
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He fine

  15. FPL Mentor
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Repost

    Who to put 1st Sub?

    A. Söyuncu
    B. Robbo/TAA
    C. Lundstram
    D. Traore
    E. Ings

    Currently on E and leaves me with this:

    Pope
    TAA Söyuncu Lundstram Robbo
    Salah KDB Martial Traore
    Vardy(C) Jimènez

    Button / Ings / Cantwell / Kelly

    1. POLSKA GOLA
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I’m playing Ings ahead of Soy

  16. MrFrodo
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Boring transfer alert! I’ve currently got Pope but was thinking about switching him out as I’ve got two transfers who do you prefer?

    A. Foster
    B. Fabianski
    C. Ryan
    D. Stick with Pope and use the transfer to get rid of Pieters

    Thanks

    1. POLSKA GOLA
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      D

  17. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Rashord (NOR) or Vardy (SOU) captain?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rash is more of a gamble. Utd not exactly looked great last few games either. Think I'd go Vardy.

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rash

    3. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rash

    4. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy

    5. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      R

      Hey ya dennis

  18. Kay317
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Need a bit of advice on starting line up please. Currently on:

    Hendo
    TAA, Pereira, Sidibe
    Salah, KDB (vc), Maddison, Martial
    Vardy (c), Abraham, Ings
    (Button, Lund, Traore, Rico)

    Thoughts appreciated.

    1. POLSKA GOLA
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Play the Lord ahead of Pereira as you also have Ings

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        That was my thought too. But feels wrong benching him when he's done so well for me.

  19. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Do you trust Vardy for the armband? He hasnt played much recently...

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not at all, can’t trust him this GW against a much resolved Southampton side

    2. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Seemed to be pretty sharp in the cup and got an assist. Don't think his rest is an issue.

    3. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes , party on

    4. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Don know tbh. Feel like its a trap this week.

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Captain Mane. I would but I never captain someone against my team

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Salah or mane though?

        1. Coys96
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Mane, against aurier and better record away from home

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      BUs driver mour says hi

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Liverpool have beaten every bus that doesn't begin with Manchester and end with United.

        1. NABIL - FPL otai
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Indeed

          Mour specialty to spoil the party

  20. Jatz10
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Do I start Rico or Grealish? I have Ramsdale in goal.

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      G higher ceiling

      1. Jatz10
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks!

    2. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Grealish

  21. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Beware

    Son (NOR), rash & tony (BUR) have a good chance to outscore salah or mane (or even both) in DGW24

    Just sayin'

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      As a group of 3 you vs LIV's 2? Or individually?

      1. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Individually

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thats why you keep them as well as get LIV mids 😉

      1. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Tried but to no avail

        Might keep my red devils n get robbo for my 3rd liv in the end

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Get on "KDB-out" train asap 😀

  22. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Repost.

    Hey guys, does Begovic back mean Ramsdale is getting dropped soon?

    Cheers

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Unlikely

  23. Dream Killers 2.0
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you rather have D.Silva, Sarr or Maddison?

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      For this GW, D.Silva.

    2. B Sharp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maddison draft league
      Sarr value wise

    3. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maddison

  24. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Kelly --> Holgate (FT) a good way to burn one of 2 FT's?

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      100%

    2. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    3. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah. I did Rico to Holgate and also had 2ft.

  25. B Sharp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Any changes or GTG? mini draft league

    Fabski
    Perrira Sid Gomez
    Fornals Sarr Sterling Alli Willian
    Jimmy Vardy

    Subs: Guiata Kolasinac Digne Martinelli

  26. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What do you reckon, who is the best pick for 4.2 mil for my bench ? Would like to rotate sometimes with Lundstram or Cantwell...

    1. Lascelles
    2. Mariappa
    3. Kiko Femenia

    1. B Sharp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Reece james?

      1. Jebiga
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        hes 5, i need for 4.2

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone of the Watford boys I think..

      I am waiting on Jaanmat to return @4.1

    3. B Sharp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Kiko

  27. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Mane or Salah captain?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Flip a coin. Mane plays down Aurier's side so if I had to choose I'd go for him.

  28. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play Alli or Grealish lol

  29. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    New article posted numbnuts....