Pro Pundits - Az

The importance of showing patience as an FPL manager

Oh, Fantasy Football, what do you do to us?

There are some weeks when you just have to laugh. I’ve escaped a tricky Gameweek 23 with a decent-ish score (£48m) and a green arrow but others haven’t been so lucky.

I have my own tales of woe, but that’s nothing compared to some of the stories that I’ve seen banded around the community over the last few days.

Having done the Scoutcast for a couple of years now, and being in charge of grabbing the “Roughs with the Smooths”, I’ve seen my fair share of “Roughs”.

But this Gameweek has made me wince.

The people that have traded their faltering Wolves players for soaring Saints, such as Raul Jiménez (£7.5m) for Danny Ings (£6.9m) you have my sympathy.

For anyone that (like me) that left Adama Traore (£5.7m) on the bench, I feel for you.

For anyone that, probably against their better judgement, removed long-standing goalkeepers, such as Paulo Gazziniga (£4.6m) or Nick Pope (£4.6m), and replaced with Double Gameweek ‘star’ Lukasz Fabianski (£4.9m) or budget ‘hero’ Alex McCarthy (£4.4m), you have my condolences.

For anyone that took punts on Richarlison (£8.1m), Ryiad Mahrez (£8.5m) or Djibril Sidibé (£5.4m)… you did not deserve the fate that the cruel, cruel FPL gods had in store for you.

This game can be a nightmare. We talked last year about the impact it can have on mental health, as more and more people’s enjoyment of a weekend is intrinsically linked to their FPL score. But know that you are not alone. Everyone has bad weeks. Everyone suffers when seemingly good decisions go against them. Everyone has weeks that make them want to close FPL forever and get a new hobby. But don’t. Go outside. Take a breath. Consider why you removed Jiménez for Ings (Jiménez’s fixtures do turn really bad! Ings had scored 80 points in the last 12 Gameweeks!).

To me, “Black Box Thinking” has never been about beating yourself up over making these kind of decisions, the ones where hindsight tells us it was a mistake, but general strategy tells us it was the best move.

I’m not that annoyed I benched Traore, or that I sold Pope, because I really did think it was the right thing to do with the tools at my disposal.

However, what I’m learning more and more this season, is that when it comes to 50/50 calls, when you just don’t feel that certain, the best move may be to show patience.

My last 12 Gameweeks have been the best I can remember, with just one red arrow in this period. I was trigger happy in the first 11 weeks, and when faced with a decision (to transfer, or not to transfer) I would do it.

But actually, the players we have in our teams are those that we have backed for whatever reason, and unless there is really clear evidence that they are now no longer the player we originally signed – perhaps ditching them isn’t the best move.

I’ve shown more faith in players that I’ve selected, allowed them to have a few weeks to perform, and been rewarded. 50/50 decisions for me lately have tended to go in my favour, as I have elected to do nothing, rather than make wholesale changes (often involving hits that do not pay off).

The main reason I’m not going for Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) – see my last article for the ins and out of this – is because it would tear my team apart, particularly my midfield which currently consists of Jack Grealish (£6.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.4m), Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m), Anthony Martial (£7.9m) and/or Traore.

These players have been fundamental to my rise up the rankings, and the thought of binning these players off to chase a haul from one player fills me with dread.

The fact that I’m not that confident that Salah really will outscore these midfielders by such a considerable margin tells me that I shouldn’t be following the crowd.

Instead, it looks like I will be turning my attentions to a certain Robert Firmino (£9.4m) – who had a goal very cruelly ruled out against Manchester United on Sunday.

I said I wanted to see something to tempt me towards the Brazilian, and he’s been good the last few weeks, with a goal against Spurs and an unfortunate VAR call last week.

Firmino’s away form has been quite appealing as well heading into two matches outside of Anfield. In the last four away matches, for example, he has four goals compared to Salah’s one and Mane’s two – and 16 goal attempts compared to 14 for both the Liverpool midfielders.

For more detailed information on Firmino, read THIS MEMBERS ARTICLE.

Looking further ahead, I’m wondering what other players may come into our considerations. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.7m) is going to be back in a few weeks, after the dust has settled from the Double Gameweek. The golden boot chaser could easily be a major factor for those chasing the pack.

Similarly, a certain Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) has now hit consecutive double-digit hauls but remains a player who is being overlooked in favour of Liverpool’s star assets right now.

More budget-friendly options, such as Leandro Trossard (£5.8m), Lucas Digne (£5.7m) and Ismaïla Sarr (£5.6m) (injury depending) are also looking like options that can help you soar up the table. The key, it seems, is picking them for the right reasons, and sticking with them through uncertain times.

FPL can be the ultimate test of patience. But what I am increasingly learning is the importance of honing your ability to filter out poor Gameweeks, assess what happened and react – or crucially, not react – accordingly.

Az <p>One half of the FPL BlackBox YouTube series with Mark Sutherns.</p><p>Former Membership Strategy Manager for FFS&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

1,815 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bobby_Baggio
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Kelly > Cathcart or Lascelles

    This will enable me then to do Maddison > Mane. Thanks.

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Awful top post

    2. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Cathcart 100%

    3. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lascelles

    4. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Im going for Lascelles, fixtures are better

  2. OldBenKenobi
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Imagine activating your WC to then take a -8 the week after 😆
    Yup Im a fool!

    1. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      happens

  3. Goonsquad245
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    From GW25

    A) Robbo + Auba
    B) VVD and Kun

    Thanks!

    1. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. Goonsquad245
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Lignja
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

    3. Akshatjazz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

  4. kamdaraji
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    TC is the most useless chip

    1. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I hate it! Bring back all out attack!

      1. kamdaraji
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        all out attack is a good one

    2. Test Eagles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Unless they score 3 goals, 2 assists and 6 baps like Salah will this week!

    3. fusen
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      It's not, it's just disproportionately hyped.

      Say for Salah and Mane their points per 90 minutes is something like 6~ each, so realistically, you're looking at say 12 points over the double gameweek.

      normal captain (12*2 = 24)
      triple captain( 12*3 = 36)

      A 12 point increase for your captain is not exactly something to write home about. It's may turn an okay week into a decent week but unless other things really go your way, it isn't going to turn an okay week into an amazing week.

      Like a lot of FPL things, you need luck to go your way and to have say a 20 normal point return (40, 60 points) as then that does turn an okay week into a great week. Even then, you still need the weeks after the TC to go well to not fall back down the ranks again.

    4. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      It's not even triple captain, it's captain and a half

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Nice

    5. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Depends we'll see after this GW

    6. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Really is unfair. Mane and Salah are a coinflip and choosing the wrong one could see you lose or gain 50 points

      1. HashAttack
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Firmino to scoop up all the points - I'd quite like 1-x in both matches

      2. Lignja
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thats why you need both in team so you dont lose all if you pick wrong

  5. eamonhegg
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    OR 6K.

    Rashford and Maddison > Ings & Son

    Y or N

    1. JoeSoap
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks good. Could be a good week for Son.

      1. eamonhegg
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah Son lovess a hall. Playing up top too

    2. kamdaraji
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      come back with your final rank at the end of the season. cheers

    3. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Those transfers better for teams around 3K rank

      1. eamonhegg
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Agreed!

  6. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hi...at what point do you throw in the towel and just play on impulse?

    I've tanked to 700k. Miles behind in mini leagues. Got rid of jiminez and Pope last week.

    All the things I have done for years and have helped me get some great rankings have failed this season.

    Triple captaining salah and if they doesn't work debating wildcarding to a team of differentials. Thanks

    1. Captain_Shirokov
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      completely up to you, even at that point I would simply just try to get the most amount of points every week - I wouldn't throw in the towel

    2. Goonsquad245
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Stick to your principles. It’s really tough and I’m in a similar boat, but you did well in previous seasons for a reason. Chin up.

    3. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Never throw in the towel! It is just a game, after all.

      You can definitely make a come back from 700k! Start getting those differentials in

    4. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Play your own game and stop listening to plebs on here.

    5. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Im doing it this gameweek onwards.

      Pretty much in the same position as you and im sick of making the template moves.
      KDB & Vardy are probably my next 2 transfers out.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah. I'm keen on vardy out. Just not sure who to.......

        1. kamdaraji
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          vardy >> rashford

      2. HashAttack
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I've already done Vardy+KDB > Firmino+Salah 🙂

    6. fusen
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If you're going to do this I'd recommend trying something I've wanted to test for a long time.

      Wildcard the #1 in the world's team. As much as possible obviously with the available cash you have, then see how well you do over the next 3-4 weeks. The top 10 in the world have had the most luck out of any one, so basically try and ride their luck a little bit. The hardest bit if captaincy as that is majorly why they are in the top 10 and captaincy is a whole lot of luck, but see if you can guess at who they are likely to pick and see if that works as well.

      1. Captain_Shirokov
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        this is interesting

      2. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        😀

      3. HashAttack
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        What did #1 in the world deserve to have that done to them ... they'll be out of the top 1000 within a week or two

    7. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      600K to 190K in two weeks mainly because Aguero C here. A few punts can easily do the trick. Spurs playing Norwich and Villa next 3 could work.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers. Ive already tried the spurs differentials

        Captained son and he got sent off...kane was underwhelming...maybe I'll look at kdb to son for those games. But would like to see some spurs form!

  7. Cruz88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Soy
    B) Lund
    C) Kelly

    1. sovietrockettes
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Tough. I’m alternating between A&B - it doesn’t feel like Leicester can keep a clean sheet right now

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A but I wouldn't be confident in getting anything more then 2 points

      1. Cruz88
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Think this is why I'm on Lund currently. If none are keeping a cleany then might as well go for the attacker, and City defense is hardly solid

        1. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            This. Lundstram will haul

            1. Fulchester's New Centr…
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              TC worthy?

      2. Sedemuda
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A

    3. FPL Doctor
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A) Abraham + Martial/Maddison --> Greenwood + Mane (-4)

      or

      B) KDB --> Mane for free

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A if youre not starting Greenwood

      2. eamonhegg
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        C

      3. The Fantasy Doctor
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I feel uneasy about losing Martial and Abraham when they play poor defences.

    4. Captain_Shirokov
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Who gets more points?

      Cathcart (avl)
      Lundstram (MCI)

      1. Test Eagles
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cathy

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cath

      3. Captain_Shirokov
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thought so, thanks

      4. Party time
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Lundstram

        • Darlo
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Lund for me, he has the higher ceiling. Villa have scored in every home game bar one (I think).

      5. S.Kuqi
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Apparently Hasenhuttl didn't mention anything about resting Ings?

        I'm still tempted to sell him for Deeney for short period.

      6. sovietrockettes
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Chances that Greenwood starts against Burnley? Has to be about 80 percent, right?

        1. Goonsquad245
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          You’d think so, but ole is a clown.

        2. farmerfat
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          78.43%

        3. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Ole more likely to start himself.

      7. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Only 2 of the top 8 in my mini league own Salah, he's a crazy good differential this week, rest own double defence and Mane. This is part the reason ive gone Mane, Salah and TAA, and the main reason im going Salah TC.

      8. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Play one?

        A) Jimenez (LIV) - currently on
        B) Cathcart (avl) - over looking?
        C) Cantwell (tot) - leaning towards

        Team below:

        Reina
        TAA(TC) Robbo Stephens
        Salah(VC) KDB Martial Grealish
        Vardy Jimenez Ings

        McCarthy Cathcart Cantwell Lundstram

      9. Saka Rice
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Completely torn please help

        A) Mane and Ayew
        B) Firmino and Martial

        1. OldBenKenobi
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          B

        2. KDB4PREZ
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          B

      10. KDB4PREZ
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Wanted mane but settled for bobby +4 points, gtg?
        Gaza
        Taa(VC)/Evans/Kelly
        Salah(TC)KDB/Son/Trossard
        Vardy/Ings/Bobby

      11. runupstream
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Japhet Tanganga
        let's hear for Japhet Tanganga
        Jaaaphet Tangaaanga
        you know him, Jaaaphet Tangaaanga

        Well should I bring Japhet Tanganga for Kelly?

        1. Captain_Shirokov
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Knowing Mourinho he'll drop him in a couple games time after he makes his first mistake, and we'll never hear of him again

      12. fakelund
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        TAA and Mane owner.

        Richarlison > Salah
        or
        Maupay/Ings > Firmino?

        1. OldBenKenobi
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Richarlison > Salah 100%

        2. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Salah

        3. FirMinaMiMo
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Tbh ! Yu know the answer when yu started typing it! 🙂

      13. McSauce
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Mane vs Salah for the TC this week, looking forward to captains pick video and some of the FFS content tonight on this one.

        I have Salah, TAA and Mane and only decision now is the C/TC options.

        1. FirMinaMiMo
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          TC salah !!! (2 weeks ago fixed)...but i think this time mane could haul coz goals are his regular diet !! Haha!

        2. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I think this is the gw where Mané vs Salah argument on who is better gets clarified

            Likewise Trent vs Robbo & VVD vs Alisson

            Can't wait tbh

            1. FirMinaMiMo
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              The first two lines !!! (Firing) !!!

              Choosing b/w def! Seems quite easy coz all loves cs!

              But b/w mane nd salah its the ratrace of TC 🙂

              1. Party time
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  😆 Can't wait to experience all the OMG, Lol @, Benched etc... posts here but most importantly experience the 1st two.

                  Imo Mané will outscore Salah but I will let the games decide, don't want to start another argument with them chaps

                  1. FirMinaMiMo
                    • 4 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Then take your time and decide at the season-end! Lol! 🙂 ...

                    Mane had 2 chances and created 2 chances 🙂 that's why i m keen on him

            2. Pep Pig
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              They are both world class player and on their day, either one of them can haul.
              I don't think there is a right or wrong way to turn. Pick one, and hope he outscores the other but don't stress too much about it 🙂

          • Alli
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Any suggestions?

            Ryan
            TAA - Dunk - Soy - Williams
            Salah - Mané - KDB - Cantwell
            Vardy - Ings

            Button - Jiménez - Lund - Traoré

            1. Alli
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              2 FT

              1. Akshatjazz
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                jimenez > DCL

            2. BellyKlopp
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              nice team. maybe Soy out and save the other one?

          • Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Repost
            Hey lads, 2FT, 0.5ITB, how do I get VVD? Wanna sell Jimmy I guess or Traore

            Henderson, Button
            TAA,Soy,Stephens,Lund,Kelly
            Salah,Kdb,Ali,Traore,Grealish
            Jimenez,Vardy,Deeney

          • eamonhegg
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Serious - Ings or Greenwood?

          • Otis Kay
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Questions:

            A) Williams or Tanganga more likely to start?

            B) Likelihood of Aguero being rested v Shef United?

            C) Likelihood of Matip replacing Gomez in upcoming weeks.

            D) ARE WE TRIPLE CAPTAINING SALAH/MANE?!!

          • SpiritRising
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I don't believe this is the correct gameweek to be triple captaining players. Wolves away is a tough fixture and even West ham have proved harder to beat under Moyes. I think Liverpool will get at least 4 points from the two games but I don't think either game will be a hammering.

            1. eamonhegg
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Its liverpool double

            2. Qaiss
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Liverpool are the best team in the world. There will be other times to use it but there won’t be a time that will be more effective imo cause of fixtures.

            3. FirMinaMiMo
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Remember after returning from club WC! ... Tired legs vs foxes etc etc were sounded ,,, but the result???

          • Akshatjazz
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            guys do you think pool players who have an away fixture will stand up to our expectations??

            the stakes are HIGHhhh

            1. Now I'm Panicking
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              21 wins in 22 PL games

          • Dybala10
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            There's not one player I want to replace Rashford with.

            1. kamdaraji
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              go back to bed

            2. FirMinaMiMo
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Ings ...if having then DCL !

            3. the dom 1
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Rash is out for at least 5 - 6 weeks from reports mate.

              You going to have him on your bench for that long?

          • CC22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Who are people looking at as Rashford replacements? Most of the strikers who've been performing well so far seem to be coming into tough fixture runs. I've already got three Liverpool and Ings and Vardy are my other strikers.

          • Bumbaclot
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Any triple captainers here? If so who??

            1. kamdaraji
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              rashford

            2. runupstream
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Salah, nice form and less owners than Mane. Another thing, we are unsure of the future double week fixtures, maybe we won't get a good team with DGW. Remember BHA last year?

              1. HashAttack
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                The early season DGW always seems a big letdown - BHA last year, that Spurs one with Kane having the flu (The year before?)

          • Longlatini
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            See people jokingly say they’re going to delete their Fpl team but is it actually possible,can’t find any option on the website?

            1. kamdaraji
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              you can yes

          • SCOUT PICKS CHAMPION LOTTERY - GAMEWEEK 24
            andy85wsm
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            It's Scout Champion time and another quick turnaround.

            Think you have the eye to pick the differentials and form a winning team vs the Scout Picks? We need a Community Champion to represent us vs the Scout Picks for Gameweek 24.

            The Community Champion picks a team including a captain to go up against the Scout Picks, within a budget of 85m and in a playable FPL formation. Whichever Gameweek champion beats the Scout’s team by the largest margin will win a £100 Amazon Voucher!

            If you're interested in applying, email Geoff (geoff@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk) with your FFS username and FPL Team ID.

            The Champion will be picked by the end of today (Monday), so make sure to enter by then! The Champion then has until 11am Tuesday morning to send in their team.

            Good luck!

          • Qaiss
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            The point on mental health shouldn’t even have to be mentioned. It’s FPL, it’s a game that does nothing for you, in the end of May/June/July your FPL team will be the last thing on your mind. If you do well, enjoy it, if you’re not doing well, think of the moments you enjoyed it. If you hate it and it affects you, don’t play.