Pro Pundits - Az

The importance of showing patience as an FPL manager

Oh, Fantasy Football, what do you do to us?

There are some weeks when you just have to laugh. I’ve escaped a tricky Gameweek 23 with a decent-ish score (£48m) and a green arrow but others haven’t been so lucky.

I have my own tales of woe, but that’s nothing compared to some of the stories that I’ve seen banded around the community over the last few days.

Having done the Scoutcast for a couple of years now, and being in charge of grabbing the “Roughs with the Smooths”, I’ve seen my fair share of “Roughs”.

But this Gameweek has made me wince.

The people that have traded their faltering Wolves players for soaring Saints, such as Raul Jiménez (£7.5m) for Danny Ings (£6.9m) you have my sympathy.

For anyone that (like me) that left Adama Traore (£5.7m) on the bench, I feel for you.

For anyone that, probably against their better judgement, removed long-standing goalkeepers, such as Paulo Gazziniga (£4.6m) or Nick Pope (£4.6m), and replaced with Double Gameweek ‘star’ Lukasz Fabianski (£4.9m) or budget ‘hero’ Alex McCarthy (£4.4m), you have my condolences.

For anyone that took punts on Richarlison (£8.1m), Ryiad Mahrez (£8.5m) or Djibril Sidibé (£5.4m)… you did not deserve the fate that the cruel, cruel FPL gods had in store for you.

This game can be a nightmare. We talked last year about the impact it can have on mental health, as more and more people’s enjoyment of a weekend is intrinsically linked to their FPL score. But know that you are not alone. Everyone has bad weeks. Everyone suffers when seemingly good decisions go against them. Everyone has weeks that make them want to close FPL forever and get a new hobby. But don’t. Go outside. Take a breath. Consider why you removed Jiménez for Ings (Jiménez’s fixtures do turn really bad! Ings had scored 80 points in the last 12 Gameweeks!).

To me, “Black Box Thinking” has never been about beating yourself up over making these kind of decisions, the ones where hindsight tells us it was a mistake, but general strategy tells us it was the best move.

I’m not that annoyed I benched Traore, or that I sold Pope, because I really did think it was the right thing to do with the tools at my disposal.

However, what I’m learning more and more this season, is that when it comes to 50/50 calls, when you just don’t feel that certain, the best move may be to show patience.

My last 12 Gameweeks have been the best I can remember, with just one red arrow in this period. I was trigger happy in the first 11 weeks, and when faced with a decision (to transfer, or not to transfer) I would do it.

But actually, the players we have in our teams are those that we have backed for whatever reason, and unless there is really clear evidence that they are now no longer the player we originally signed – perhaps ditching them isn’t the best move.

I’ve shown more faith in players that I’ve selected, allowed them to have a few weeks to perform, and been rewarded. 50/50 decisions for me lately have tended to go in my favour, as I have elected to do nothing, rather than make wholesale changes (often involving hits that do not pay off).

The main reason I’m not going for Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) – see my last article for the ins and out of this – is because it would tear my team apart, particularly my midfield which currently consists of Jack Grealish (£6.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.4m), Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m), Anthony Martial (£7.9m) and/or Traore.

These players have been fundamental to my rise up the rankings, and the thought of binning these players off to chase a haul from one player fills me with dread.

The fact that I’m not that confident that Salah really will outscore these midfielders by such a considerable margin tells me that I shouldn’t be following the crowd.

Instead, it looks like I will be turning my attentions to a certain Robert Firmino (£9.4m) – who had a goal very cruelly ruled out against Manchester United on Sunday.

I said I wanted to see something to tempt me towards the Brazilian, and he’s been good the last few weeks, with a goal against Spurs and an unfortunate VAR call last week.

Firmino’s away form has been quite appealing as well heading into two matches outside of Anfield. In the last four away matches, for example, he has four goals compared to Salah’s one and Mane’s two – and 16 goal attempts compared to 14 for both the Liverpool midfielders.

For more detailed information on Firmino, read THIS MEMBERS ARTICLE.

Looking further ahead, I’m wondering what other players may come into our considerations. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.7m) is going to be back in a few weeks, after the dust has settled from the Double Gameweek. The golden boot chaser could easily be a major factor for those chasing the pack.

Similarly, a certain Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) has now hit consecutive double-digit hauls but remains a player who is being overlooked in favour of Liverpool’s star assets right now.

More budget-friendly options, such as Leandro Trossard (£5.8m), Lucas Digne (£5.7m) and Ismaïla Sarr (£5.6m) (injury depending) are also looking like options that can help you soar up the table. The key, it seems, is picking them for the right reasons, and sticking with them through uncertain times.

FPL can be the ultimate test of patience. But what I am increasingly learning is the importance of honing your ability to filter out poor Gameweeks, assess what happened and react – or crucially, not react – accordingly.

Az <p>One half of the FPL BlackBox YouTube series with Mark Sutherns.</p><p>Former Membership Strategy Manager for FFS&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

1,815 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jonnybhoy
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Help me choose one guys

    A) Doucoure
    B) Traore
    C) Snodgrass (DGW Punt)

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Snodgrass

      1. Liber
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Snodgrass

  2. BNMC
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    It amazes me that 20% of the game still owns Sterling. They're probably all dead teams or casuals...

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mark captained him this week!

    2. Liber
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Patience sometimes pays off and sometime doesn't.

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        As per the article ...

        ....when you just don’t feel that certain, the best move may be to show patience.

    3. fusen
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      And yet he is still the 4th highest scoring midfielder in the game! I think that sort of shows how limited this season has been in good player options. The template has been so consistent and strong.

  3. Malkmus
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    GTG? 0FT, 3.3 ITB. Injuries been killing me. Kiko, Rash, Richa...

    McCarthy (Button)
    TTA (TC) - Robbo - Kelly
    Mane - Maddison - Richa - KDB
    Vardy - Ings - DCL

    Subs - Lund, Kiko, Dendonk

    Ta!

    1. Going To Win This Year
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Richa confirmed out.

      1. Malkmus
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        OK thanks. Play Lund/Dendonk or -4 for a playing mid?

    2. Going To Win This Year
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I've got the same midfield. Thinking of taking a punt on Son. The smart choice would be graelish

      1. Malkmus
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers. I was thinking Grealish, I'm not feeling spurs right now.

  4. SHOWSTOPPERRR
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed and no replies

    Guys what to do here 1ft 2.1m itb

    Fab* button
    Taa soyu holgate lund rico
    Salah Mane kdb traore cantwell
    Vardy ings greenwood

    A) fab to mcarthy/ryan/foster
    B)fab and traore to martial and mcarthy -4
    C) traore to Moura and go kerperless for the second gw in a row

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A ryan

    2. uwepleban
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Fabianski to Ryan. Don’t take a hit.

    3. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A, McCarthy

  5. Hitmonlee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Very happy with my WC team below.
    Worth taking anyone out for a West Ham punt?

    Thinking maybe Snodgrass for fleck?

    McCarthy / Hendo
    TAA / Robbo / Lund / Williams / Tanganga
    Mane / KDB / Grealish / Doucore / Fleck
    Aguero / Vardy / Ings

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Nice team.

      Would swerve the WHU move, will just give you a headache later on. Same could be said for the Williams/Tanganga combo. Think I'd drop to one playing keeper and upgrade Tanganga

      1. Hitmonlee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        You might be right. May change for Lascelles. Thanks you

  6. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hi All,

    Snodgrass or Noble? Shoddy not completely nailed, no?!

    Thanks.

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Noble if you must have on of them.

      1. Phil's Stamps
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *one

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Snoddy

  7. Alexis Nonsense
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    No love for Lanzini here ?

    1. salazar1963
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Took a punt on Haller

      1. Alexis Nonsense
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Remember Lanzini creative stats being among the top in the league, if Haller starts to convert chances they should both be good picks

        1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          How about Snoddy?

          1. Alexis Nonsense
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Yes I like him, but looking at his minutes I think he's getting old or something ??

  8. Philip Jones's Diary
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Any United fans on here think that Greenwood might get a bit of a run over the next month or so? Or will he still get low minutes off the bench?

    1. grumpyman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd be amazed if he doesn't start the majority of games - at the very least he should start the easier ones, which is ideal from an FPL perspective.

      1. Philip Jones's Diary
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        If I can use him safely it means I can save a transfer this week which would be ideal. He seems like he is up to the task. Hopefully Ole will give us a hint either way in the presser.

  9. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    surprised no one has Randolph

    1. BNMC
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Surprised anyone would even think of Randolph

      1. Kudo Warrior
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Surprised anyone would be surprised

      2. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        as a 2nd keeper I see no downside. Lots and lots of saves in dgw 24

        Still have WC and FH so no issue.

    2. Alexis Nonsense
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think 4.5 is too expensive for a keeper in a team that rarely keep a clean sheet, has the worst possible fixture run and will be out when Fab is back

      If he was 3.0m I'd consider him

      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        its a dgw 24 punt. would be 2nd keeper still have WC.

        1. Alexis Nonsense
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Go for it!

    3. Whats the Huth
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not worth it for 4.5

    4. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thinking same. Have two frees and only McCarthy.

  10. Phil's Stamps
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best 4.3 or less replacement for Kelly? (Have Guaita so don't want the straight swap to Ward)

    A) Lascelles
    B) Williams
    C) Cathcart

    I'm leaning towards A as I think he's nailed and defensively they have 9 blue fixtures in the next 10.

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C

    2. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C here's been great for two GW's already

    3. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A.

  11. yer old da
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Need to get shot of Rashford and want a 3rd Pool player but not Firmino. So A or B?

    A. Rashford and Rico > Jimenez and Robbo
    B. Rashford and Maddison > Calvert-Lewin and Salah

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      b

    2. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

    3. Dr. Mantis Toboggan
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

    4. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

    5. Crystal Alice
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A. Jimi delivers in the big games

  12. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on this? 1FT 0ITB

    McCarthy
    TAA(TC) Digne Rico
    Salah Mane KDB Mahrez
    Vardy Ings DCL

    (McGovern Kabasele Cantwell Lundstram)

    A) GTG, Save FT
    B) Rico -> Williams / 4.2 def
    C) Kabasele -> Williams / 4.3 def
    D) Something else

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mane or Salah (TC)

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Would just pick the wrong one

    2. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        You reckon both Kabasele and Rico starts?

  13. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    GW26:
    Auba-Firmino-Ings

    How does this sound?

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Needs Jimmy

      1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Ings got better fixtures me thinks

    2. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'd want to see so much more from Arsenal before going near them

  14. Over Midwicket
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Do we think Gomez is nailed for the DGW?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think so but who knows

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yup - Matip should play the cup game

  15. Going To Win This Year
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Phew glad I didn't do my maddison transfer last night with the news of Richa confirmed out.

    Best alternatives probably :

    A Son
    B Graelish
    C Martial

  16. Champ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    How much will Deeney be affected by Sarr do you reckon? Sarr banged in a nice few crosses...

  17. Sotamendi84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    start 2?
    1) rico (BHA)
    2) targett (WAT)
    3) kelly (SOU)?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      1, 3

  18. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Is selling KDB madness?

    1. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If you need money for pool assets and dont have much money tied up on him, it could work

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Have my triple Pool (Salah, Mane, TAA).

        Thinking KDB to Son.
        Languishing around 1m

        1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          That move does not sound good to me

          1. Karan14
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Have explained more below. If I have to get him back I will. Spurs face Norwich and Villa in their next 3 games just seems like a good time to take a punt with City's fixtures stiffening.

            1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Fair enough, go for it!

    3. Liber
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not complete. Surely if it's for Salah or Mane this week, who could argue. But I would loose a lot of value as I did with mane some time ago and I regret it.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I don't have value tied up in him would only lose 0.1m - 0.2m if I had to buy him back.

        Looking at KDB to Son this week which frees cash for Vardy to Auba.
        Rank is 1m so looking to do something different.

        1. Liber
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Good moves. I would do it.

          1. Karan14
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers mate!

            Not got much to lose so I think I'll take the risk. Vardy & KDB won't be capped also in next few weeks because of Pool's fixtures so damage will be minimal I hope.

    4. Alexis Nonsense
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Last time I did it he got the 21 point haul

      1. Liber
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        19

        1. Firminooooo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Me to. Brought him straight back.

    5. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Generally but not necessarily if for LIV mid and TC him

  19. smix
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Worth a WC ? Way down in my ML and need a few differentials to click !

    Guaita
    TAA Dunk Holgate
    Mane(c) Salah (vc) Son Grealish Martial
    Ings DCL
    Mccarthy Ayew Lascelles Lundstram

    1. Liber
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not this week.

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      What do you think?

  20. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Just did Tammy to Deeney as a panic buy. Good move?

  21. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Are u confident that Williams will start over Shaw ?

    Still wondering Rico -> Williams/Dunk ?

    1. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not yet nailed for me

  22. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Other then Willems do any changes need to be made?

    Ryan
    Cathcart Lundstram VVD
    Grealish KdB Mane (©) Willian
    Aguero (VC) Ayew Vardy

    Subs: Button, Dendonker,Hanley & Willems

    0.1 ITB & 2 FT's

    1. Liber
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Third Liverpool?

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Vardy > Firmino maybe?

  23. rodragon
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Traore replacement:
    Doucoure or Grealish?
    Feel that Grealish might not fetch any points against a decent Watford defence
    Ty
    Between Trossard and Doucoure,who would you choose

  24. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Get rid of Abraham now or give him the Arsenal game?

    A. DCL
    B. Deloufeu
    C. Haller
    D. Keep
    E. Someone else

    Have Ings and Greenwood

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Give him Arsenal

    2. Big Al Stankovic
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      You must have expensive defenders and midfields!

      Gonna say C for a short punt.
      Struggling between getting him in myself. Between him and dcl.

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Salah, Mané, KDB, Grealish, Martial midfield
        TAA, Sidibe, Soyuncu, Kelly, Lundstram defence

  25. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Sarr out for -4 or play Rico ?
    Have only 6.4 for a replacement:(

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Grealish and Trossard both great options - I’d take the -4 and I hate hits normally

  26. Me Spurs
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Jimi to haller worth it for the double?

    1. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No

  27. dezille
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    1FT

    A) Abraham > DCL/Greenwood
    B) Cantwell > Noble
    C) Save and reassess next week with 2 frees

    Think I prefer saving as I'm not quite sure whether I want to stick to 343 at the moment. 2 Frees will give me some flexibility. Noble realistically will get 4pts in the dgw and would remain as a 5th mid, but is 2 wasted transfers assuming I have to deal with him later to free up funds. It is very frustrating watching Abraham recently but he is as good a chance as any forward to return this week really.

  28. nkhoughton
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Anything worth a -4?

    Pope
    VVD Aurier Kelly
    Mane(C) KDB Alli Martial
    Vardy Firmino DCL

    Fodder Traore Soyuncu Lundstram

    1. I SPEAK ENGELS AND DRINK GI…
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      play söyuncu instead of Kelly and you are good to go

  29. I SPEAK ENGELS AND DRINK GI…
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Little Poll which is in everyones mind!

    To triple captain or no?
    a) no
    b) yes

    who to triple captain?
    1) TAA
    2) Mane
    3) Salah

    1. I SPEAK ENGELS AND DRINK GI…
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Im currently

      B3

  30. Pinturicchio10
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Really surprised the dgw is upon us and folks don't know who they're buying and who they're picking for captaincy. Crazy. There's 6 viable picks and 2 of them are captain picks how hard can it be.

      1. TheDragon
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        There are more than 2 captain picks. TAA is definitely an option whichever way you slice it.

        Going 2 defenders and 1 midfielder vs 1 defender and 2 midfielders is potentially a 20+ point decision

        Just because there are so few options doesn’t mean it’s easy to pick between them