Long delivers on underlying numbers and outscores Ings in win over Villa

SOUTHAMPTON 2-0 ASTON VILLA

• Goals: Shane Long (£4.6m), Stuart Armstrong (£5.2m)
• Assists: Moussa Djenepo (£5.2m), Che Adams (£5.3m)
• Bonus Points: Long x3, Armstrong x2, Alex McCarthy x1 (£4.4m)

Southampton moved up to 12th place and kept Aston Villa hovering over the relegation zone after a dominant 2-0 win, sealed with goals from Shane Long (£4.6m) and Stuart Armstrong (£5.2m).

However, Fantasy Premier League managers will almost certainly rue this match as a missed opportunity as highly-owned assets Danny Ings (£7.1m) and Jack Grealish (£6.7m) both blanked.

In truth, it could and should have been a lot more after the Saints tallied up 28 shots to Villa’s four. Many of the chances involved the trickery of Moussa Djenepo (£5.2m), signed in the summer from Standard Liege but unable to get a sustained run in the team.

It was he who assisted the opening goal after eight minutes. On the left flank, Djenepo crossed with the outside of his right foot, which was met by Long at the near post. VAR ruled against a handball and Southampton took the early lead.

Five minutes later it was Djenepo again, twisting through Villa’s defence to set up a poor Ryan Bertrand (£4.8m) shot. The Malian was denied by the busy Pepe Reina (£4.5m) soon after, before returning to the field to play with a bandaged head after being caught by Mbwana Samatta’s (£6.0m) arm.

“The only negative was that we didn’t score more, with some massive chances. At 1-0 you never know, and in the second half we had to stay concentrated. We didn’t have so much possession today, but we tried to play quickly in behind, and I think this helps us because we have the strikers to do this.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

While Ings is the league’s third-highest scorer with 15 goals, his even cheaper strike partner has gone under the radar. Over the last four Gameweeks, Long has higher xG (expected goals) and xA (expected assists) totals than Ings, scoring 1.05 versus 0.78 goals and 0.68 versus 0.15 assists – and he finally delivered on that against Villa.

Both strikers were replaced after 72 minutes, frustrating the 2.5 million managers who surely thought a home clash against the league’s worst defence would guarantee at least one goal for Ings. He had one great chance in the first half, coming inside the box past near-namesake Tyrone Mings (£4.5m) and opening up to shoot, only to hit it straight at Reina. He later set up a fantastically-hit volley from Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (£4.8m) that forced a good, low save.

There was also a blank for popular Villa talisman Grealish. Southampton’s strategy was to double-up on him when possible and it kept him quiet for large periods of the first half.

There were occasional glimpses of Grealish though, such as his beautiful feint that eventually slipped in Samatta for an offside goal. His influence began to grow in the second half but to no avail, rounding off his third blank from four matches by getting a stoppage-time yellow card.

“It was a dreadful performance from start to finish. We wanted to start the game well like we did against Tottenham last week and take heart from that performance, but it wasn’t good enough. I take full responsibility for the performance as the head coach. Nowhere near enough fight in the first half at all. I said to the players before the game that we’ve got 13 cup finals left. They certainly didn’t play like it today. There were certainly a few players that have played themselves out of the cup final next weekend.” – Dean Smith

Having produced attacking returns against Spurs, Leicester, Manchester United and Arsenal, it could be argued that Grealish is fixture-proof. Especially as Dean Smith’s side went into the match having scored the most goals of all those in the bottom half, with Grealish at the epicentre of many by scoring five and assisting four since his Gameweek 13 return.

He is the highest-scoring midfielder under £8m and managers will be at a crossroads in regards to keeping him. There are few outstanding midfield candidates to replace him with but next week’s Carabao Cup Final means Aston Villa will not play in Gameweek 28. Then they have Leicester (away), Chelsea (home), Wolves (home), Liverpool (away) and Manchester United (home) surrounding a possible Gameweek 31 blank that depends on whether Newcastle eliminate West Brom from the FA Cup.

Whereas Villa have conceded more often than any other Premier League team, Southampton now have four clean sheets from nine matches. On top of this, centre-back Jack Stephens (£4.4m) has four attacking returns from 11 and had a chance for a fifth early in the second half, meeting a free-kick of James Ward-Prowse (£5.7m) – who, in a dream scenario for the world of acronyms, played instead of Kyle-Walker Peters (£4.4m) – at the near post but missing the target.

Investing in either Stephens or goalkeeper Alex McCarthy (£4.4m) has potential, ahead of an encouraging trio of games against two of the bottom three and a Newcastle side allergic to goals. Elsewhere, manager Ralph Hasenhuttl handed a league debut to 20-year-old Will Smallbone (£4.5m) in midfield. He scored against Huddersfield in the FA Cup Third Round and had a deflected shot that hit the post after six minutes.

In the second half, former Celtic midfielder Armstrong pounced on some Mings hesitation and took the ball around Reina, only to hit the side netting from a tight angle. It could have been a vital miss for the hosts, as the away side enforced some late pressure and were hopeful enough to send goalkeeper Reina up for a corner in the 95th minute.

But a quick counter-attack left Reina stranded up-field as Che Adams (£5.3m) presented Armstrong with an open net to seal a 2-0 win for the Saints.

Southampton XI (4-4-2): McCarthy; Ward-Prowse, Stephens, Bednarek, Bertrand; Smallbone (Romeu 80’), Hojbjerg, Armstrong, Djenepo; Long (Obafemi 72’), Ings (Adams 72’).

Aston Villa XI (3-4-3): Reina; Konsa (Hourihane 60’), Mings, Hause; Guilbert, Douglas Luiz, Nakamba (Borja Baston 81’), Targett; El Ghazi (Trezeguet 28’), Grealish, Samatta.

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