Pro Pundits

Using xG data to identify the best low-owned options for Gameweek 28 and beyond

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through some alternative FPL assets as we approach the second Blank Gameweek of the campaign.


The first truncated Gameweek of the season is upon us and the phrase “a hit is only a minus two this week” is being thrown about as usual.

There is some logic to this – if one of your players is going to score zero points this week, then selling him for someone who has a fixture should secure a minimum of two points for an appearance alone.

However, this not always the case, with rotation, yellow cards and conceding goals often having an effect. You also might end up, as Triggerlips used to say, “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” if you sell someone like Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m)

For the purpose of this article, I’m focusing on identifying lesser-owned players who I believe can repay a hit this week as well as form part of your squad for the next three weeks leading up to Blank Gameweek 31. I’m ignoring goalkeepers as their ceiling is quite low.

First, I’m looking at the Custom Table for xGOT (expected goals on target) both for and against over the last four Gameweeks to identify the whipping boys, and then looking at the Season Ticker to see which teams play them.

As this piece draws heavily on stats from our Members Area, most of it is available only to subscribers.

In terms of my team, Barnes will likely come in for Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m). With Leroy Sane (£9.3m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) nearing fitness, I’m not confident of the Algerian’s prospects for the long term despite the rumours (and they are only that, for now) of a possible Double Gameweek 29 for the champions.

This will leave me with £4.2m in the bank. so I’m tempted to take a hit for Pereira or Doherty to sort out the Martin Kelly (£4.2m)/Diego Rico (£4.3m) problems but would also like to have some cash in the bank to make moves for City players if they do indeed have a double next week.

Bringing in Jota for Mason Greenwood (£4.3m) is also an option but after his display against Watford, I think selling him for a hit could potentially backfire.

All the Custom Tables used are accessible in the Members Area. Hope you enjoyed reading.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

1,067 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ings + Long double uppers the real winners in the coming weeks

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Convincing yourself?

  2. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    That pic! Mount looks like he’s bitten off more than he can chew 😯

  3. jason_ni
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    The camera angle in this madrid match is weird, not doing it for me.

    1. Queens of the South Age
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Me too. Struggling to follow what's going on to be honest.

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I thought I am still high

  4. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kdb playing as striker

    1. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      false 9

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ginger 9

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Falafel 9

  5. aborg
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Seems like Guardiola had enough of Aguero for now...he has started Jesus for the much important CL game !!

    1. Greek Freak
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks like it's because he wanted a false 9 (in this case Bernardo). Jesus hasn't replaced Aguero like-for-like, he's playing on the left for now.

    2. nolard
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      When he needs a goal, he will put Aguero on.

      1. aborg
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Like in the past 4 premier league games, right?
        I own Aguero and he messed up my ML game and ranking. Hoping for a DGW29 so I give him the last chance. Will wait for Friday to decide on transfers.

        1. nolard
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Same here actually. I shipped him out.¨

          But Pep will look to Aguero if he needs a goal and sub him in regardless.

    3. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Counter attacking team

    4. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Tactical

  6. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Mount is always going to let you down because whilst he gets in great positions, his decision making is really poor at times. Can't chalk it up to anything but lack of experience at this time.

    I saw a comment on Reddit today regarding his performances that really rang true:

    "Impressive and disappointing."

  7. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jesus playing lb

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      At times

  8. jason_ni
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Pep taking a leaf out of Jose's book.. parking the bus!

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Its working

  9. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Steve mc manaman is so hard to listen too.

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Horrible. Hysterical, whiney high pitch torture. Needs sacking

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        You've met my wife !

        1. nolard
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Sack her then?

          1. el polako
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Ain't got the balls to do it.
            She's the boss.

            1. nolard
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              I feel your pain.

  10. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jesus does what he does best.

    Great KDB pass.

  11. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jesus ruins a massive KdB created chance

  12. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Cynical City out very early.

  13. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Damn it Jesus

  14. Jonduffy86
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    McCarthy, Ryan
    Lundstram, Boly, Aurier, soyouchu, Alexander-Arnold

    Cantwell, KBD, Salah, Grealish, Martial

    Auba, Ings, Jimmy

    2FT

    Tempted by McNeill and C Taylor in for Lundy & Grealish

    (Seems like boring transfers but thinking ahead of GW31) £0.2m ITB

  15. Bow Locks
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    11/2 for this to finish 0-0.
    Seems generous.

  16. UTD - HATED, ADORED, BUT NE…
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    City actually looker better than us so far

  17. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Real pants.

  18. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bendy YC, misses 2nd leg.

    Essential!

  19. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Mendy was the weakest link I knew it from the start

  20. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Laporte can’t catch a break 🙁

  21. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Laporte injured

  22. UTD - HATED, ADORED, BUT NE…
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Laporte taking the whole ‘next Kompany’ thing a bit too seriously

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      lol

  23. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Looks like something serious!

  24. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Gundogan injured

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Waved to bench but back up nowhere

      1. UTD - HATED, ADORED, BUT NE…
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Gone to get their sock

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ban!

  25. Freshy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    There goes City's defence off

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Otamendi holding it together.

      1. Freshy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        ^^ He says with confidence^^

  26. aborg
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Damn it....was thinking to bring in Laporte especially if they get a DGW29. Oh well, don’t know who will be the most nailed defender anymore now!

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      The one still standing

      1. aborg
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Lol....hahaha

  27. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Rodri should be off.

    1. CloudSky
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Baffling how that wasn't even a yellow.

    2. Isco Disco
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Should've been at least a YC

      1. Rainer
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Added to an earlier one.

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ah stop

      1. Rainer
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        2x YCs.

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Sorry I thought you were implying that the last tackle should have been a red

  28. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Pep should just bring out Mendy FFS

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      He will get off with red card eventually.

  29. Isco Disco
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    FFS Vinicius...Should've scored that.
    This Laporte injury makes this game even. Needed that since we're missing Hazard in this game.

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think Laporte is a much bigger miss to city than Hazard to Ye. He hasn’t exactly done much for Ye.

  30. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    City need a better defence. Laporte is great but amending and Fernandinho as your next two CB is not good enough. I think Fernandinho is actually decent in that position but still not his natural spot

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      ^Otamendi

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If only Pep was given some funds to buy a full back or two.

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I know right.

    3. el polako
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Feck em.
      Pep was too arrogant before season to buy CB or two.
      He knew that Kompany is going and that Stones & Otamendi arent really reliable yet he didnt address issue probably thinking that team as a whole is good enough to get by without decent CB's.
      His own doing - no sympathy.

    4. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I´ve had enough Robbie!