Pro Pundits

Using xG data to identify the best low-owned options for Gameweek 28 and beyond

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through some alternative FPL assets as we approach the second Blank Gameweek of the campaign.


The first truncated Gameweek of the season is upon us and the phrase “a hit is only a minus two this week” is being thrown about as usual.

There is some logic to this – if one of your players is going to score zero points this week, then selling him for someone who has a fixture should secure a minimum of two points for an appearance alone.

However, this not always the case, with rotation, yellow cards and conceding goals often having an effect. You also might end up, as Triggerlips used to say, “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” if you sell someone like Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m)

For the purpose of this article, I’m focusing on identifying lesser-owned players who I believe can repay a hit this week as well as form part of your squad for the next three weeks leading up to Blank Gameweek 31. I’m ignoring goalkeepers as their ceiling is quite low.

First, I’m looking at the Custom Table for xGOT (expected goals on target) both for and against over the last four Gameweeks to identify the whipping boys, and then looking at the Season Ticker to see which teams play them.

As this piece draws heavily on stats from our Members Area, most of it is available only to subscribers.

In terms of my team, Barnes will likely come in for Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m). With Leroy Sane (£9.3m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) nearing fitness, I’m not confident of the Algerian’s prospects for the long term despite the rumours (and they are only that, for now) of a possible Double Gameweek 29 for the champions.

This will leave me with £4.2m in the bank. so I’m tempted to take a hit for Pereira or Doherty to sort out the Martin Kelly (£4.2m)/Diego Rico (£4.3m) problems but would also like to have some cash in the bank to make moves for City players if they do indeed have a double next week.

Bringing in Jota for Mason Greenwood (£4.3m) is also an option but after his display against Watford, I think selling him for a hit could potentially backfire.

All the Custom Tables used are accessible in the Members Area. Hope you enjoyed reading.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

1,067 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Teahupo'o
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hahahahaha

  2. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Lol Ramos

  3. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos 🙂

  4. Fred54
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Real Madrid up to 11 men for 2nd tie...

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hahahaha

    2. Supersonic Marv'
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Dude, whatever you think about his behaviour Ramos is a fantastic defender.

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        *Was

      2. Bada Bing
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A fantastic defender doesn't get 30 red cards in his career. And he's a dirty rat.

        1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          He is a dirty rat but also fantastic defender.

  5. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos and Busquets. Two of the biggest cheats in football today.

  6. ZeBestee
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jesus had such a good game here. Shows he has the ability to replace Kun if he improves on consistency.

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      People have tendency to forget that he is only 22 years old. Probably his best game of the seanson

      1. ZeBestee
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Agreed. He is a really good player and is World Class on his day.

  7. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Mahrez poor fk

  8. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Mahrez with no power

  9. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Fair play to this ref. Got all the big decisions right today. That doesn't usually happen at the Bernabeu in the CL.

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      And he looks like Robbie Keane

    2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      VAR the biggest Real Madrid’s enemy

  10. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Karma has plenty more to give to Ramos, odious gut.

    1. DRINKWINE
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A winner of four UEFA Champions League titles, four Ligas, UEFA EURO 2008 and 2012, and the 2010 FIFA World Cup...keep hating 🙂

  11. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    That was a theatrical tumble

  12. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jesus showing here why he's pep favourite

    Really put in a shift

    1. Je suis le chat
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Carpenters son, working class graft.

  13. GREEN IS GOOD
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Adios Ramos 🙂

  14. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos punishes Liverpool again.

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If we did progress, I rather play City than Madrid.

  15. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Well done Citeh.

  16. nerd_is_the_werd
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Have Ramos in my UCL team.

    Hit with a -3, but thrilled for Ramos. 🙂

  17. Dosh
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    That was a dive from Jesus no doubt

  18. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Troller gone quiet.

    1. Supersonic Marv'
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Who's the troller?

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Niho

  19. ZeBestee
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Why did Zizou replace V. Junior? A huge mistake imo as he constantly kept Walker and Rodri/Ota at the back and he was the one who took advantage of the mistake. Bad decision there.

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      This

    2. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      It was horrible

  20. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sterling with a passback

  21. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sterling looking great.

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Poor finishing

  22. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Mahrez too selfish there, should have put kdb in

  23. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Razz needs to look up?

  24. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Where all the KDB sellers at? 😉

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Taking hits to reverse that decision.

      1. have you seen cyan
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        KDB>Pepe>KDB -8

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Bootiful

    2. have you seen cyan
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I cant believe it when I see it, but I see it every week. Just wow

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        It’s the little things in life that give me pleasure 😛

  25. Peter Ouch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Karma is a b@tch.

    Ramos go home

  26. Yank Revolution
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    !Hasta luego, Real Madrid!

  27. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bale asking can he go to city

  28. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Great result

  29. Wilshere Knowledge
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Might have to sell Mahrez after that display.